A LUCKY DAY ... FOR SOME by JVM

With a little bit of luck, North Melbourne will continue its recent record of domination over Melbourne when the two clubs meet at Etihad Stadium this weekend.

On face value the timing of the game at 2:10pm on a Saturday afternoon suggests a return to traditional values but there is nothing truly traditional about this game. The venue is an enclosed stadium which has a roof that might be closed for the game depending on the weather conditions. Although this is Melbourne's "home" game, the ground is actually home to the "visiting" club and given that nobody remembers the last time that the Demons won a game at the place or indeed, when they last won a game against the Kangaroos, one wonders where the term "home ground advantage" fits into the equation.

This has not been a particularly memorable year for either club. The horror stretch that Melbourne has endured over the past seven years is continuing and has been well documented but for North fans, it has also been a series of disasters and bad luck despite the club having a near injury-free list for the third or fourth year in a row.

Last year, they had a dream fixture which helped them make it into the finals before they ran into a brick wall and a 16 goal crushing at Patersons Stadium at the hands of the Eagles. This year the luck of the draw eluded them. They have also played a number of quality games for 2½ quarters or so and then allowed opposition teams to come back from substantial deficits to win games at the last gasp. After a series of such games, they failed to reverse the trend by 1 point last week against Carlton when they came back from a six goal deficit late in the third term. Late in the evening, when the game was there to be won, an unlucky bounce robbed Brent Harvey of a chance to kick the winning goal for North. Such has been its luck for the whole season.

But if there is to be any respite for the beleaguered Roos then it has to be this week against the Dees.

It's not as if Melbourne hasn't improved by any of the usual measures since Neil Craig took over as coach. A change of coaching regime will do that simply because it brings in the refreshing winds of change usually after a difficult period in which self-doubt and a lack of confidence has prevailed over a losing group. However, it's often not enough to bring about sustainable improvement which might have to wait until the permanent new coach is appointed and installed.

In the interim, the Demons are likely to meander through the season showing the odd glimpse of promise amid some more of the same frustrating shortcomings that have been their hallmark over the past five or so years.

And all this points to the fact that Saturday promises to be North Melbourne's lucky day.

THE GAME

Melbourne v North Melbourne on Saturday 27th July 2013 at Etihad Stadium at 2.10 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 83 wins North Melbourne 69 wins 1 draw

At Etihad Stadium Melbourne 0 wins North Melbourne 6 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 7 wins North Melbourne 13 wins

The Coaches Craig 0 wins Scott 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports Channel 3 live at 1:30pm.

RADIO - TripleM

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $15.00 North Melbourne to win $1.01

LAST TIME THEY MET

North Melbourne 19.13.127 defeated Melbourne 11.7.73 at Etihad Stadium in Round 18, 2012

It was almost exactly a year ago to the day that these teams clashed at Etihad and the finals bound Kangaroos were in control from go to whoa as they coasted their way to a comfortable nine goal win to make it five wins from five encounters between the teams at this venue.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Lynden Dunn Cameron Pedersen Dean Terlich

Half backs Tom McDonald James Frawley Mitchell Clisby

Centreline Jack Viney Jack Trengove Jack Grimes

Half forwards Shannon Byrnes Jack Watts Jeremy Howe

Forwards Aaron Davey Chris Dawes Jack Fitzpatrick

Followers Max Gawn Colin Sylvia Nathan Jones

Interchange Sam Blease Matt Jones Dean Kent Jimmy Toumpas

Emergencies Daniel Nicholson Jake Spencer Luke Tapscott

NORTH MELBOURNE

Backs Lachlan Hansen Scott Thompson Cameron Delaney

Half backs Aaron Mullett Nathan Grima Taylor Hine

Centreline Daniel Wells Sam Gibson Shaun Atley

Half forwards Ben Cunnington Drew Petrie Brent Harvey

Forwards Aaron Black Robbie Tarrant Lindsay Thomas

Followers Todd Goldstein Andrew Swallow Jack Ziebell

Interchange Leigh Adams Ryan Bastinac Jamie Macmillan Brad McKenzie

Emergencies Luke Delaney Ben Jacobs Sam Wright

Had the Kangaroos won those five games lost by under a goal this season they would be 7th on the ladder and not in 13th place which is where they sit at the present time. Of course, my aunt would be my uncle if she had a hairy chest but what this means to me is that Melbourne is not taking on a team whose form is that of an outfit struggling in the bottom six in the competition. Had the breaks gone their way, this team could easily be in the mix to play deep into the finals.

Whilst it is is true that under caretaker coach Neil Craig the Demons have shown some improvement, they continue to lag well below most sides in the competition in every key performance indicator. From centre clearances to inside 50s to average disposals and scores, they are far enough behind the likes of North Melbourne that they simply dont have the ammunition to crack even a quirky side like the Kangaroos on their home turf.

This leaves us with but one conclusion.

North Melbourne by 60 points.

Whoa! Might want to fix the odds on North!

Whoa! Might want to fix the odds on North!

I live for the day those odds are correct!

Would take more than $17 to get my hard earned on the Dees this weekend.

I live for the day those odds are correct!

Would take more than $17 to get my hard earned on the Dees this weekend.

Luxbet offering $141 on the 40+, get the house on it.

Luxbet offering $141 on the 40+, get the house on it.

Better odds than lotto you would think.

Such is the conditioning we supporters have had for so many years I was surprised that we've actually won 7 of the last 20 against North.

Such is the conditioning we supporters have had for so many years I was surprised that we've actually won 7 of the last 20 against North.

When was number 7?

When was number 7?

I'm just referencing the line in the OP which says we've won 7 and North 13 since 2000.

You know we've hit rock bottom when we're $17 to beat a middle of the road footy club.

When was number 7?

Rd 20 2006.

Won by about 50 and Neitz kicked a few.

The good old days...

Rd 20 2006.

Won by about 50 and Neitz kicked a few.

The good old days...

Interesting 7 years ago since win no.7

This mob are the Jekyl & Hyde of the competition this year. Their best is literally as good as any team going around, and if they're "on" it will be a 60-100 point thrashing. If they're not however, anything could happen. A win is unlikely but not impossible.

..and if the game is in the balance at three quarter time, get on board.

This mob are the Jekyl & Hyde of the competition this year. Their best is literally as good as any team going around, and if they're "on" it will be a 60-100 point thrashing. If they're not however, anything could happen. A win is unlikely but not impossible.

..and if the game is in the balance at three quarter time, get on board.

Oh to be as bad as North!

MELBOURNE
In: C.Pedersen
Out: C.Garland (ankle)

So who's IN this week?

Garland out, Pedders in.

Pederson better bloody lift

MELBOURNEIn: C.PedersenOut: C.Garland (ankle)

Yuck.

Thought Davis may have been a sneaky chance but perhaps we are banking on Pedo making a fool of North for trading him. Unlikely though.

Pedersen, ugh.

Yuck.

Thought Davis may have been a sneaky chance but perhaps we are banking on Pedo making a fool of North for trading him. Unlikely though.

Well then North would've selected Gysberts on that basis

Hasn't Pedo been in good form in defence in the magoos?

Well then North would've selected Gysberts on that basis

Yeah-nah, Out: McMahon In: Delaney, Scott has maintained an Irish balance.

Does this mean Davis's papers have been marked without his ever having had a chance.

I know his kicking and decision-making have been questionable, but at least he doesn't duck his head and is terrific one-on-one, both Ped weaknesses.

well done neil craig for showing faith in toumpas and kent!

Pedersen, ugh.

Yes that probably just push up the size of the defeat.