Jump to content


Recommended Posts

Posted

I don't htink I saw that Williams, Eade or Craig's odds were slashed.

There is firming odds, and then there are plunges. Not often the latter isn't from "smart" money.

But it's all in context. In a horse race a plunge often takes a fair bit of coin to change the odds. The bookies react to the money but they also (especially the major corporates) do their own form so if a few people load up on a second or third fav they wont do much. After more and more jump on then they sense what's going on and slash the odds.

In this market the actual amount of betting wouldn't be that large and there is also no real form. You can say some candidates are better than others but it isn't a race it's PJ picking a name and signing him at this stage anyway. So I'd argue that even only a minor amount of money, on the guy who has the best credentials, after a melbourne win would lead the bookies to slash the odds.

If you have a spare $300 get 3 mates and all of you put $100 on Williams or Brett Ratten or someone plausible in a short time frame and see what happens. The bookies know that they make a lot of money in these markets due to people just taking speculative bets, but they can also lose a bit if everyone jumps on in a proper plunge, so as soon as a few bets come the odds slash.

As I said if there was strong mail around that Roos was in then they wouldn't have slashed the odds they would've suspended betting.

  • Like 1

Posted

I think the $250k bet @ $5 fixed odds from P Jackson's account has probably altered the market to some degree.

Edit - spelling

That will help pay off the debt :)

Posted

I think the odds shortening is probably related to us winning which maybe got a few people thinking Roos might actually be keen as we aren't a massive basket case after all. The bookies then react to the cash coming on by drastically shortening the odds. If Roos was really locked in they would've suspended the market. I maintain it means very little. It would undermine Craig too much to fully commit to Roos right now. Especially considering Craig is getting some positive results from the players.

There is no way the betting market would change that dramatically because we won a game.
Posted (edited)

Damn, my ex boyfriend worked for sportsbet, would've been able to find out what was happening!!

Edited by DemonDan83
Posted

I think the $250k bet @ $5 fixed odds from P Jackson's account has probably altered the market to some degree.

Edit - spelling

The betting on these things are low level.

I guarantee you they would not take a $250k bet.

The pool is probably $500 if that.

In these funny bets a $50 wager would change the odds dramatically.

I would take very little notice

Posted

Damn, my ex boyfriend worked for sportsbet, would've been able to find out what was happening!!

well make the suck up call and speak in a low growler type voice

when you receive the goss ,get straight back to us and dump him again

  • Like 2
Posted

well make the suck up call and speak in a low growler type voice

when you receive the goss ,get straight back to us and dump him again

Are we males that easy?


Posted

Are we males that easy?

that's what the boss tells me

and SHE hasn't made a mistake in 52 years

  • Like 1

Posted

that's what the boss tells me

and SHE hasn't made a mistake in 52 years

Sad but probably true on both counts jazza.

Funny but five seconds after I type it I thought YES

Posted

If they were looking at Saturday nights game, Neil Craig should've firmed. He would tick most of the boxes that we are looking for, and the fact that he got us playing reasonable footy for most of the game, and in turn we won the match, that's where "smart" money should've gone.

The fact that is didn't, and that Roos has shortened significantly, that speaks a lot for me.

From what I understand, the AFL have limits on how much a potential payout per bet can be on this type of betting (think it's a max of $500). Given that odds for the corporates are more based on % of payout and then their own studying of form, it would tell me that a number of bets (not one big one) have been taken for Roos.

I strongly doubt they have shortened him to "drum up interest" RP. I for one won't be backing Roos at $2 or $1.80, he was of more interest to me at $5.

  • Like 1
Posted

The betting on these things are low level.

I guarantee you they would not take a $250k bet.

The pool is probably $500 if that.

In these funny bets a $50 wager would change the odds dramatically.

I would take very little notice

I was taking to pizz with the $250k call Old Dee.

Also, 1 x $50 bet wouldn't set off the alarm bells, but mulitple bets of $50 in a short period does. It will also depend on the account holder, and what their history is like. There are a number of factors that agencies take in to consideration before slashing odds. I know this as a number of my mates work in this industry, and I am invovled to some degree (I often pay their wages!!!).

Posted (edited)

As i've posted before i backed at Roos at $7 with two different bookies. Why? One would only let me have $20 on it and the other $8! So forget lots of bets of $50 or indeed any more than $20.

A bookie is probably only holding a couple of grand on it. Purely done for promotional value. Still i hope the new quote indicates it is going to happen. Perhaps i should lay off. Does anyone want to take $2?

Edited by binman
  • Like 1

Posted (edited)

As i've posted before i backed at Roos at $7 with two different bookies. Why? One would only let me have $20 on it and the other $8! So forget lots of bets of $50 or indeed any more than $20.

A bookie is probably only holding a couple of grand on it. Purely done for promotional value. Still i hope the new quote indicates it is going to happen. Perhaps i should lay off. Does anyone want to take $2?

Did your 1 bet of $20 @ $7 see him firm?

Edited by billy2803
Posted

As i've posted before i backed at Roos at $7 with two different bookies. Why? One would only let me have $20 on it and the other $8! So forget lots of bets of $50 or indeed any more than $20.

A bookie is probably only holding a couple of grand on it. Purely done for promotional value. Still i hope the new quote indicates it is going to happen. Perhaps i should lay off. Does anyone want to take $2?

Spot on


Posted

Damn, my ex boyfriend worked for sportsbet, would've been able to find out what was happening!!

Any chance for old times sake taking one for the team and letting us know if you hear anything!

  • Like 4
Posted

There is no way the betting market would change that dramatically because we won a game.

Winning may well have sparked interest in the market which in turn led to money for Roos plus a rumour or two and the bookies go from $5 to $2 to safe guard themselves.

If asked tonight Roos will deny anything has changed and to be honest I will believe him. No party benefits from committing this early in the year. Unless Roos panics and thinks Craig will work miracles and get himself the job. But I don't see that happening. Roos just has to point to his premiership if PJ decided to waver in his thoughts.

Posted

if we put some money on Thomas and bring his in, maybe roos odds will slacken and we can make a killing

good way to pay off 3 mill

Since the maximum winnings is $500, we'd only have to make 6000 bets.
Posted

Talking about it on SEN at the moment...

What are they saying?

Posted

Oh my god I will cry from happiness if this ever eventuates.

Come on Melbourne, make it happen. I truely believe that Roos can be the person to finally put this club on the right track mentally and culturally.

Maybe he watched Casey and then our win and said "well I'll be damned, lets do it".

Or maybe people are delusional and they are betting on what they want.

  • Like 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Demonland Forums  

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    TRAINING: Wednesday 18th December 2024

    It was the final session of 2024 before the Christmas/New Years break and the Demonland Trackwatchers were out in force to bring you the following preseason training observations from Wednesday's session at Gosch's Paddock. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS TRAINING: Petracca, Oliver, Melksham, Woewodin, Langdon, Rivers, Billings, Sestan, Viney, Fullarton, Adams, Langford, Lever, Petty, Spargo, Fritsch, Bowey, Laurie, Kozzy, Mentha, George, May, Gawn, Turner Tholstrup, Kentfi

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    TRAINING: Monday 16th December 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers braved the sweltering heat to bring you their Preseason Training observations from Gosch's Paddock on Monday morning. SCOOP JUNIOR'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS I went down today in what were pretty ordinary conditions - hot and windy. When I got there, they were doing repeat simulations of a stoppage on the wing and then moving the ball inside 50. There seemed to be an emphasis on handballing out of the stoppage, usually there were 3 or 4 handballs to

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports 1

    TRAINING: Friday 13th December 2024

    With only a few sessions left before the Christmas break a number of Demonlander Trackwatchers headed down to Gosch's Paddock to bring you their observations from this morning's preseason training session. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS PLAYERS IN ATTENDANCE: JVR, Salem, McVee, Petracca, Windsor, Viney, Lever, Spargo, Turner, Gawn, Tholstrup, Oliver, Billings, Langdon, Laurie, Bowey, Melksham, Langford, Lindsay, Jefferson, Howes, McAdam, Rivers, TMac, Adams, Hore, Verrall,

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    TRAINING: Wednesday 11th December 2024

    A few new faces joined our veteran Demonland Trackwatchers on a beautiful morning out at Gosch's Paddock for another Preseason Training Session. BLWNBA'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS I arrived at around 1015 and the squad was already out on the track. The rehab group consisted of XL, McAdam, Melksham, Spargo and Sestan. Lever was also on restricted duties and appeared to be in runners.  The main group was doing end-to-end transition work in a simulated match situation. Ball mov

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    TRAINING: Monday 9th December 2024

    Once again Demonland Trackwatchers were in attendance at the first preseason training session for the week at Gosch's Paddock to bring you their observations. WAYNE WUSSELL'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Looks like very close to 100% attendance. Kelani is back. Same group in rehab. REHAB: Spargo, Lever, Lindsay, Brown & McAdam. Haven’t laid eyes on Fritsch or AMW yet. Fritsch sighted. One unknown mature standing with Goody. Noticing Nathan Bassett much m

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    TRAINING: Friday 6th December 2024

    Some veteran Demonland Trackwatchers ventured down to Gosch's Paddock to bring you the following observations from another Preseason Training Session. WAYNE WUSSELL'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Rehab: Lever, Spargo, McAdam, Lindsay, Brown Sinnema is excellent by foot and has a decent vertical leap. Windsor is training with the Defenders. Windsor's run won't be lost playing off half back. In 19 games in 2024 he kicked 8 goals as a winger. I see him getting shots at g

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    TRAINING: Wednesday 4th December 2024

    A couple of intrepid Demonland Trackwatchers headed down to Gosch's Paddock for the midweek Preseason Training Session to bring you the following observations. Demonland's own Whispering Jack was not in attendance but he kicked off proceedings with the following summary of all the Preseason Training action to date. We’re already a month into the MFC preseason (if you started counting when the younger players in the group began the campaign along with some of the more keen older heads)

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports 2

    BEST OF THE REST by Meggs

    Meggs' Review of Melbourne's AFLW Season 9 ... Congratulations first off to the North Melbourne Kangaroos on winning the 2024 AFLW Premiership. Roos Coach Darren Crocker has assembled a team chock-full of competitive and highly skilful players who outclassed the Brisbane Lions in the Grand Final to remain undefeated throughout Season 9. A huge achievement in what was a dominant season by North. For Melbourne fans, the season was unfortunately one of frustration and disappointment

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    AFLW Melbourne Demons 3

    TRAINING: Monday 2nd December 2024

    There were many Demonland Trackwatchers braving the morning heat at Gosch's Paddock today to witness the players go through the annual 2km time trials. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Max, TMac & Melksham the first ones out on the track.  Runners are on. Guess they will be doing a lot of running.  TRAINING: Max, TMac, Melksham, Woey, Rivers, AMW, May, Sharp, Kolt, Adams, Sparrow, Jefferson, Billings, Petty, chandler, Howes, Lever, Kozzy, Mentha, Fullarton, Sal

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports 1
  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!

×
×
  • Create New...