Do we have a sound enough foundation?

[dee-luded 2,959]

That's kind of the point though isn't it? This thread is putting aside all the older players who won't be playing a part in the side's success in 3 years. Anyone 26-28 now will be 29-31 then, and if not out, they'll be on the way.

We can speculate on these things till the cows come home re our past with recruits, But I think the real thing is that we are now spending dollars on the footy dept to teach develope & discipline the new boys with good club values & soon we'll have state of the art support facilities for training, body building & medical/recovery.

These things if missing I believe are the difference between players floundering, or prospering.

[sylvinator 96]

I think our foundation is pretty good... we are in better position to other teams who 'started from scratch', because unlike Carlton, we've been picking kidz from day 1 (and not wasting 10 picks on crappy recycled players ala Carlton). Thus we actually have decent depth, though our depth consists of pretty average players.

The real issue imho is this: the only way we are going to become a top 4 side is if 2-3 of our players 'make the grade' and become truely A-Grade, awesome players... I mean players ATLEAST of the calibre of Montagna, Pendlebury etc. If we can't do that, then we'll once again come 5-8th each year.

FACT: you don't win premiership without at least 2-3 players in the top10-15 players in the afl during the year of the premiership.

If MFC cannot produce a player who is in the top10 players in the afl, then so be it... but we won't win a premiership without one.

Morton, Grimes, Strauss, Blease, Watts.... i don't care who it is, one of them has to rise and become an A-grader.

[Adam The God 30,157]

I think we're expecting just a little much, too soon. I've heard a lot of whinging in the media lately, along the lines of 'stuff all this, be patient crap', but it's true. Be bloody patient. Listening to David Parkin last night (gee he speaks well) reinforced my thinking, in that we're going in the right direction, but it's going to take time. Hawthorn won a premiership a year earlier than they would have been expecting (I'm basically quoting what he was saying now), but generally it takes 4 to 5 years to truly challenge for the flag. We're half way through our second and I'd say it'll take us another 3 years from now before we can think about being a true contender and not pretender. I thought I'd write out my preferred team (probably for the 2011 season), including an elite midfielder and key marking forward option, which I believe we need. In this case, for arguments sake, I'll use Scully and Butcher.

B: Bennell Garland Warnock

HB: Rivers Frawley Grimes

C: Morton Sylvia Davey

HF: Jurrah Watts Bate

F: Wonaeamirri Butcher Maric

R: Spencer McLean Scully

INT: Jones Moloney Strauss Martin

EMG: Miller Jamar Blease

Working my way down the line up, starting with the defenders, the last few weeks has made me realise, even more, how much we miss Garland's versatility. I believe he is in our two best defenders, Rivers the other. He can play on a small, tall, slow, fast, anything. Each week, Colin would get the oppositions best forward and Warnock or (probably) Rivers would get the second best. Furthermore, having Garland out this season has exposed Warnock a little bit, as instead of playing on the second or third best forward every week (granted he's done a few good jobs on the best forwards), he's been getting the best. With Garland back in, this would improve our balance markedly.

Then, it would be a raffle, where I'd play Bennell, but it'd either be in the back pocket or off the back flank (notice I couldn't find a place for Cheney, I'll say he's a bit unlucky). In either position, he has pace and poise and certainly has the potential and easily the speed to play on the competitions best small forwards. It would have been a good experience for him to play yesterday. You might have found Dick/Didak or Davis would have got less of the ball. Anywho, I'd have him in my side every week.

Rivers and Frawley would play the floating, spare defender role, with Frawley, the ability to run with reasonable pace out, off the back flank. Then, Grimes on the other flank has poise and effective disposal, which would be very handy coming out the back half as well. He could also rotate through the midfield, in time, with Morton, who could play that sweeper role across half back, if Bailey so desired.

Moving up to the middle of the ground, Morton and Davey both provide silky skills, good decision making and much needed pace through the centre, with Sylvia offering a bit of extra grunt, strong skills and ball winning ability, just as the former do. Both Davey and Sylvia are well capable of kicking goals from the midfield as well.

Watching Spencer, briefly the other day, he's still rather clumsy, but some of his tap work was impressive and so would get the nod ahead of Jamar and Paul Johnson. The latter is quickly slipping into the trenches and becoming, at best a depth player and another with huge potential that hasn't delivered.

McLean and Scully would both be major ball winners, McLean as an inside mid, whilst Scully on the outside. McLean offers a bit more grunt and leadership (and hopefully improves his decision making and disposal capabilities) in the middle, whilst Scully injects the pace and silk that we so lack at the moment, in the midfield.

Moving into our forwardline, Jurrah would probably drop deep and provide a third marking option and play as the Robbo small-playing-a-tall-role and perhaps with a few pre seasons under his belt could push into the midfield, to release even more pace in there.

Next to Jurrah, Watts would play up the ground and occasionally play deep, when the opportunity arises (I noticed a number of times, Whopper being in the right place at the right time, with fantastic ability to read the play, against the Pies). He, like Franklin also posseses the ability to play anywhere on the ground. If we so needed, Jack could push himself into the midfield, or even win the ball across half back.

On the other flank, Bate would play the lead up role that Miller plays (notice no Miller as well, I didn't know where to put him), with the ability to kick the long goal from the flank (as on Monday) or even push deep as well.

Finally, to the full forwardline, Aussie to roam the feet of Butcher, Watts and Jurrah, as he did so well last year (even though we barely had any tall forwards to crumb off!). Next to him, Butcher, to play from the square or rotate through half forward with Watts. He'd hopefully provide the main target inside forward 50. While, Maric would play the role of crumber and balance our forwardline out nicely.

Each week, I'd rotate players through the bench. I'd probably play Jones each week though and rotate him through Brock's inside mid role, as well as Moloney. Strauss would offer further poise and effective disposal, just as Blease would too. I'd probably play Martin off the bench and keep him mainly in the backline, but occasionally, pushing him forward (once he's learnt his trade) and into the ruck when required. Jamar would occasionally replace the likes of Spencer.

In short, I think we have a lot of talent on our list and by far the most promising list we've had for many years. Be patient, Bailey and his coaching staff are on the right track. The kids are the foundation, but they'll take a little time to develop. However, when they do, watch out AFL!

Go Dees!!!

[Adam The God 30,157]

I mean players ATLEAST of the calibre of Montagna, Pendlebury etc.

Pendlebury is not in the calibre of Montagna. Morton is already better than him. God that bloke is as soft as they come. Runs around for the easy handball and kick and when he gets it, he often turns it over. Even a Pies supporter called up, noting his disposal ineffeciency, yesterday. As usual, the Pies have talked up one of their players waaay too much. Kind of like Thomas, who's another softie, who likes the easy kick.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Carlton

2007 4 wins. 78%.

2006 3 wins, 1 draw, 74%.

Hawthorn

2005 5 wins. 82%.

2004 4 wins. 70%.

St Kilda

2002 5 wins, 78%.

2001 4 wins. 72%.

These teams are scattered with names like Crawford, Harvey, Hayes, Mitchell, Croad, Everitt, Fevola, Loewe.

We're building a team from so close to scratch it's not funny. Given that we don't have a single champion-level veteran currently (performing) on our list, I'd say the kids are holding up well.

Rewind 20 years... a little more... find yourself the youtube video of the Demon's 'Night premiership', there was a comment in that which has stuck with me for months; 'and he kicks it forward to the Demons most dangerous forward, the teenager...'

This time round, the kids will have the facilities, football department and political stability to give them the best chance possible. Don't go putting a hex on it just because of the occassional mental crash along the way.

One of the most succinct posts on the topic I have read. Well done.

[furious d 463]

While gathering together a list that's balanced in a positional sense over the next three years or so, we also need to adress the imbalances in age and experience. This is what's hurting us right now. I don't see our window opening until 2014 but it's not impossible we could snaffle one a year early.

At the beginning of this season we had 6 players aged 26+. No player was 26 y.o then Wheatley 27, Green 28, Bruce 29, Whelan 29, Robertson 30 and McDonald 32. Wheatley is yet to play. Green has been good not great and missed 4 with a broken jaw. Bruce has been Bruce, getting plenty of it but not hurting the opposition enough. Whelan and McDonald seem to be struggling and Robbo has been horrible since he came back. Could Bails please explain to Robbo that football is a game best played on one's feet, please stop diving and just contest ffs.

I haven't been through any other lists but I defy anyone to find a list with less output from it's over 26's. Apart from Green and the much maligned Bruce, who should be around for a while yet, we're not getting much at all. I'm not trying to bag these guys, just stating the obvious. They've been great servants but they need to find something or move on at years end.

Last week all these blokes played except Wheat. When that happens our average age is boosted by 4 players being 29+, but it leaves us with 1 26-28 y.o.

The problem I see in 2014 will again be in the 26-28 bracket, today's 22-24 y.o's. That's 22- Bartram, Bate, Buckley, Dunn, Jones and Newton. 23- Martin, Meesen and Valenti*, and 24- Bell, McLean, Sylvia and Hughes. McLean Sylvia and Martin are the only certainties to be in our top 26 players in 2014 imo. The 22 y.o's are the biggest concern for me. All except Buckley are either treading water or have gone backwards under Bailey, and he's barely set foot on a footy field all year. We really need 6-8 of these blokes still around and being consistent contributors, not fringe players, in 2014.

[H_T 3,043]

This time round, the kids will have the facilities, football department and political stability to give them the best chance possible. Don't go putting a hex on it just because of the occassional mental crash along the way.

Good point here. Of course the occassional mental crash will happen along the way as it does with most rebuilding sides, even the ones with the odd scatter of champion-level players. Happened with Hawthorn in Clarkson's early days. Posters need to acknowledge this.

Although, back to the topic, do we have a sound enough foundation to build on? IMO the base of the foundations are in place (starting with our backs), we just need a couple more 'needs', and along with what you have described for "this time round....(ie. facilities, etc)".....you're right, it should give them the best chance possible.

[Ryan Dee 140]

Everyone has overreacted over one bad game. The tone on this forum last week was so positive about the ENTIRE team. I think its obvious our older players are not playing well, big deal its not ther olders players I really care about. All our older players need to do is to help our younger players develope and support them whenever. I read in the Sylvia artcle how Mcdonald would ring Sylvia telling him to stick to his guns and it will come. Thats great leadership and thats all I expect from our leaders.

I think come round 22 everyone will be saying how the dees are starting to make massive progress. We have a lot of games we can win coming season end and if not we will be very competative in them. We seem to make to many conclusions from one game to another. Its a young group and there will be UP's and Downs.

[Rogue 585]

Everyone has overreacted over one bad game. The tone on this forum last week was...

This is the disappointing bit about the views from many.

Surely you people that were positive last week, negative this week and who will be positive after our next decent performance don't take the same sort of view in other areas of life..?

I understand there are emotions connected to footy but the typical over-reactions to each good and bad performance make some of the reading on here pretty dull.

[H_T 3,043]

Everyone has overreacted over one bad game. The tone on this forum last week was so positive about the ENTIRE team. I think its obvious our older players are not playing well, big deal its not ther olders players I really care about. All our older players need to do is to help our younger players develope and support them whenever. I read in the Sylvia artcle how Mcdonald would ring Sylvia telling him to stick to his guns and it will come. Thats great leadership and thats all I expect from our leaders.

I think come round 22 everyone will be saying how the dees are starting to make massive progress. We have a lot of games we can win coming season end and if not we will be very competative in them. We seem to make to many conclusions from one game to another. Its a young group and there will be UP's and Downs.

Agree, but it's not 'everyone' Mr.Morton. However, there are quite a few. It's amazing what a thumping by the opposition will highlight.

[Ryan Dee 140]

Agree, but it's not 'everyone' Mr.Morton. However, there are quite a few. It's amazing what a thumping by the opposition will highlight.

Probley shouldn't have said everyone but you get my point. The thing that was most disappointing was we has a great opportunity for the club to earn respect back, and we stuffed it up. Other than that we were probably due for an off performance.

[harry 1]

The way I see it, the reason we've seen finals action but not a flag in the last decade has been that we've always had a good number of B graders, but a serious lack of A's. The thing that the premiership sides have all had is a couple of top line players capable of tearing apart the opposition single-handed.

Good point about the lack of absolute champions. I'm 24 and I've never seen an absolute champion of the competition wear a Melbourne jumper. The closest we've probably gone in my time is Schwarta and Jacko who couldn't maintain it for different reasons. Sure, we've had very good players, excellent players even but none in the 'Buddy, Ablett, Judd' category. I guess you'd hope that out of the current lot maybe Watts or whoever we get number 1 or 2 this year will become that absolute superstar.

[Ryan Dee 140]

Good point about the lack of absolute champions. I'm 24 and I've never seen an absolute champion of the competition wear a Melbourne jumper. The closest we've probably gone in my time is Schwarta and Jacko who couldn't maintain it for different reasons. Sure, we've had very good players, excellent players even but none in the 'Buddy, Ablett, Judd' category. I guess you'd hope that out of the current lot maybe Watts or whoever we get number 1 or 2 this year will become that absolute superstar.

Exactly, I think we might get a few all at once though. Hopefully

Morton will win a Brownlow. And when he does I will dig up this post

[Carn dees 108]

FOUNDATION No.1 - BACKLINE

Our side still lacks games /experience. I look at Warnock now who is 25yo. He's played 32 games for the Dees. Has the confidence to take on anyone standing at Full Back. Seems like he has been around a while. Yet, 31 AFL games?!!! Rivers is 24yo and has played 80 games.

Martin - 22yo; 17 games!

Garland - 21yo; Just 20 games!

Frawley - 20yo; 30 games!

Cheney - 19yo; 5 games!

Bennell - he turned 19 on Sunday; 9 games!

Buckley - 22yo; 21 games!

Grimes - 20yo; 6 games!

McNamara - 19yo; yet to play

Strauss - 19yo; yet to play

ANALYSIS: - The Demons through their recruitment and footy department have already taken major steps in building what looks to be a solid foundation of a strong backline. A young but notably competitive backline that will mature and play together for some time. As they say, a strong backline is the cornerstone to premiership success. By maintaining and developing these kids along with Rivers and Warnock, it should ensure stability down back as the Dees look to mould their midfield and forward structure to compliment the team. Some will mention Petterd (20yo; 20 games), although I believe from the list above - they're suited better in regards to strength & accountability.

Whelan (29yo, 144 games) is a hard back pocket player for the oppositions small elusive forwards. Been very serviceable, plays hard. Turns 30yo in December! Won't be around for the resurrection.

Love the look of that backline!

[rpfc 28,294]

Wow.

I think some of you are disconnected from our immediate past and are overreacting to an awful display on Monday.

2008 was filled with Monday-esque performances and we are much, much better than we showed on Monday. The Dogs game was the soon-in-the-future norm and Monday was the slip-back-into-bad-habits shocker that always hits teams in our position.

McLean will a good player. He has averaged 7 clearances over the last three weeks against great opposition.

Bate is still improving, and everyone in the forward line will get better when the delivery comes in with more quantity and quality.

The midfield needs to improve that.

That improvement will come from the improved form of Morton, Davey, and Jones and the improved delivery of Moloney, McLean, Green, and Bruce (all of whom have delivered the ball better in the past than they have this year).

The improvement will also come from the inclusion, over time, of potential long-term First 18 players in Buckley, Batram, Miller, Petterd, Garland, Meesen, McNamara, Wonaeamirri, Martin, Jetta, Spencer, Bennell, Valenti, Strauss, Blease, Jurrah, and McKenzie.

The sky is not falling.

It fell in 2008 and its still retreating upwards, althought it stalled momentarily on Monday afternoon.

[Hannabal 4]

Voss, Chris and Brad Scott, Ashcroft, McRae, Black, Lappin, Bradshaw, Lynch, Akermanis, Leppitsch, Hart, Power, Keating, White, and Chris Johnson are all premierships players that forged terrific careers. They also all played in a wooden spoon team.

Things can change. By the end of this draft we need to be able to identify a core 14-16 players that we believe can develop over time into a very successful AFL side. Who can we confidently predict will form part of that nucleus right now ? We're 5-7 years away from the possibility of a flag, but from a talent point of view we need to be well into the journey of identification.

NB: the Lions side of '98 had lots of young talent but also lots of off field issues which affected their season. Nonetheless, they still only won 5 and a half games. The following year they came third with 16 wins, so there's no doubt that '98 was an abberation and didn't reflect their true potential. So in some ways I accept that it's a poor example. Nonetheless, a spoon was had.

[rpfc 28,294]

Adding to my previous post, and touching on Hannabal's post slightly:

I still believe, even after the debacle of Monday, that we can win 12 games next year.

The players have improved their ability to perform the gameplan considerably over summer, and with continued improvement on that front, and non-stop skill work, I think we can return to the finals in 2010.

There is no real point in coming out and saying this, other than give hope to those who have heard nothing but doom-and-gloom from many posters, friends, and family members.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Everyone has overreacted over one bad game.

Ok. I think this thread took a direction other than what was intended.

Let's assume, for a minute, that Melbourne WILL improve. ie, that we have a squad that warrants the excitement that has been generated in the weeks leading up to the Collingwood game.

The thread was more trying to get a consensus. Let's say the squad is good enough to make top 4 in 3 or 4 years. Is it good enough to take that next step.

So to clarify, no-one is questioning MFC fans' rights to be excited. I'm questioning HOW excited we have the right to be...

Reasonably speaking...

[Carn dees 108]

Now i love writing out our team but i believe the potential of this squad can eb anything and is exciting.

FB:Frawley Garland Grimes

CHB:Bennell Martin Strauss

C:Morton Scully Davey

CHF:Watts Jurrah Blease

FF:Maric Butcher Bate

R:Jamar Moloney Sylvia

INT:Jones Warnock Rivers Mclean

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

All those questions that we have banging around in our heads should take a back seat to the REALLY important one: We know this list will improve... possibly even improve earlier and more startlingly than we expected... BUT... Is the core list, as of round 1 2010, going to be good enough to go the whole way, and not end up with 3-5 years of finishes in and out of the top 4? Taking a look at, say, the Blues of 2009, I am not convinced. Not by a long shot. We all know they have little depth, but they have class galore, and names that should, on paper, be able to push them in line for a flag. Judd, Fev, Murphy all in their prime... and up and comers who are starting to dominate like Gibbs and Kreuzer. They should be pushing the top 2. So why aren't they? I'm tempted to say that it's because they are still feeling the effects of being the worst side of the last ten years, in terms of recruitment. They've come from SO far back, that even with a few big names in their side, they'll still fall just short of being a flag threat.

While I agree with you Dappa on the questioning of whether our "core" is going to be good enough, I can't agree with you on the following comments you have made about Carlton.

You say you are not convinced about them this year? Were you expecting them to win a flag this year? They have only just begun their attack. Judd and Fev are in their prime yes, but Murphy? He is 21-22. A year older than Gibbs. Carlton's younger group of players have years before they reach their prime. Some of them are now showing why they were rated so highly. The fact is Carlton still have a lot of improvement yet. You can't simply say they are going to push for a flag the year after they finished 11th on the ladder. That's ridiculous. This year they will make the finals as hawthorn did in 07. Next year will be where they will push for a top 4 spot and have a tilt.

Back to the dees..

I have no doubt that we will be a great side in the coming years but I do wonder about our middle aged players who really should be coming on in leaps and bounds.

Jones - I think he has shown enough to suggest he is a keeper. He is only 21-22. I think his disposal is the only thing that is hampering him from becoming a pretty damaging mid.

Bate - While he is the same age as Jones, I really can't see him being part of our future. In my opinion he has way to many flaws to his game. For a forward these days he is too one dimensional. Hence why Lloyd struggles. Top heavy and sluggish.

Newton - Enough said. Can't play at AFL level.

Dunn - The same. Good VFL player at best.

Miller - Hole plugger at the moment? Has been very serviceable nonetheless and he would benefit from having a couple of other KP forwards down there with him.

Mclean - Don't know what's happened to him this year. I believe he is a great player but he seems to have lost leg speed and kicking ability. Really hope he can get it back.

Ruck Division - I really really worry about it.

Backline - The only area I am confident with at the moment.

21 and unders - I think we have a number of Gems but of course we all said the same thing when Bate, Newton, Dunn and co came along.

I just really hope some of our middle ages players really show that they WANT to take their game to the next level.

Go Dees.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

While I agree with you Dappa on the questioning of whether our "core" is going to be good enough, I can't agree with you on the following comments you have made about Carlton.

Aaah. Yes, I can see how my post must have looked. I agree absolutely. I don't think I ever thought the Blues would get to a GF or even a prelim this year.

My point is that their big names are playing well, but their other youth aren't doing much. My point was that if next year they still aren't pushing the top sides, then they have a right to be disappointed. And I see enough holes in their list that this could be the case. Hence my apprehension at the state of our list.

Otherwise, good post.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

Aaah. Yes, I can see how my post must have looked. I agree absolutely. I don't think I ever thought the Blues would get to a GF or even a prelim this year.

My point is that their big names are playing well, but their other youth aren't doing much. My point was that if next year they still aren't pushing the top sides, then they have a right to be disappointed. And I see enough holes in their list that this could be the case. Hence my apprehension at the state of our list.

Otherwise, good post.

Ahh fair enough.

Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens with the Blues next year.

I wonder how much good footy Fev has left in him?

Anyway.... my concerns are like yours our "core".

Will be an interesting one..

[Hobbits's 17]

Good thread. After receiving a belting by Collingwood on Monday to the tune of 66 points, leaving the ground scratching my head, wondering where the footy club is at and when or where the improvement is going to come. It's great to read other supporters posts, particularly on page 1 of this thread to bring things back into focus and understanding areas which enable to put things into perspective. Particularly the posts referring to the foundations and the age of the players highlighting their inexperience. Patience is the key word, which funnily enough is what Jim & Bails stated prior to the season. Thanks.