LUCKY?

[Demonland 71,582]

LUCKY? by Westender

Please spare a thought for those of us who are avid Melbourne supporters and who reside in the City of Churches (that's Adelaide for the benefit of any Collingwood or Port Adelaide fans who might have strayed in here).

It's an absolute nightmare!

Not just because the city is a "piss ant town" as correctly described by Adelaide United soccer team coach Aurelio Vidmar after his team lost the A League major semi final a couple of months ago to Melbourne Victory but because its piss ant AFL teams always seem to massacre the Demons when they come over here.

This dominance must all be luck thanks to the fact that Melbourne just can't perform well at AAMI Stadium. They last won a game there in Round 2, 2001 when Andrew Leoncelli pounced on a ball that was tapped in his path from a boundary line throw in by David Schwarz and goaled 30 seconds from the end to give them a famous victory by three points but you have to go back a year further to Round 8 of 2000 to find a record of a Melbourne win against Port Adelaide at what was then Football Park.

Last year, Melbourne ventured over to Adelaide twice and on both occasions it was after the team had feasted on the rare taste of victory. Supporters of the club had reason to be confident after the Dees came back from a deficit of more than 50 points to beat Fremantle in the preceding game. We were on a bit of a roll and our hopes were high that we could give the Crows a bit of a touch up.

No way Jose!

On the graveyard we know as AAMI Stadium, Adelaide simply blew us away to the tune of 76 points. Could there be anything worse?

Yes there could.

Later in the year when both sides were playing for nothing but pride and Melbourne was coming off a win against the Eagles at the G, Port Adelaide carried out a clinical demolition of a dismal, dispirited and injury plagued Demon team by 78 points giving them a combined losing margin in their two matches over here in 2008 of more than 25 goals.

So please don't ask me if I'm going to go to Sunday's game confident of a Melbourne victory. With our young developing team I'm not expecting them to travel well and I'll be happy if they just perform up to coach Dean Bailey's expectations and be competitive all afternoon - and not only for the first quarter and a half.

A footnote to this story is that our AAMI anguish may not last much longer.

Our young kids will get better as they get more games in their legs and that's fine if you have a lot patience at your disposal. But there's another way to break the AAMI hoodoo.

It's been reported in our media that the AFL is contemplating fixturing some games at Adelaide Oval, which is undergoing a $90m facelift so perhaps the Demons could apply to play their Adelaide games at the famous cricket ground.

Andrew Demetriou ignored the request I made last year when I unselfishly called for Melbourne to host both the Crows and Port in 2009 and not make the club play any games at AAMI. On Sunday, the Dees and the Power meet for the 19^th time of which 13 of those encounters will have been at AAMI Stadium. That's absolutely ridiculous!

So Andrew, if you must make the Demons play games in this piss ant town, then let them do it at the Adelaide Oval. After all, they are a section of the Melbourne Cricket Club (the biggest sporting organisation in the country) and it's just not cricket for them to play at that other ground.

On top of that, they're just not lucky when they're with AAMI.

THE GAME

Port Adelaide v Melbourne at AAMI Stadium Sunday 12 April 2009 at 1.10pm AEST

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Port Adelaide 10 wins Melbourne 8 wins

At AAMI Stadium Port Adelaide 10 wins Melbourne 2 wins

Since 2000 Port Adelaide 8 wins Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches Williams 1 win Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 at 1pm (live)

Radio ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Port Adelaide to win $1.15 Melbourne to win $5.00

LAST TIME THEY MET Port Adelaide 18.21.129 defeated Melbourne 7.9.51 Round 21 2008 at AAMI Stadium

Frankly, the game was a bit of a blur. I remember the teams running out onto the ground that Brad Miller kicked a couple of goals while Colin Sylvia and Simon Buckley played well for the Dees but, other than that, it was all black, white and teal. At the end of the game, coach Dean Bailey was said to be gutted by his team's performance. So was I.

TEAMS

PORT ADELAIDE

Backs Michael Pettigrew Alipate Carlile Jacob Surjan

Half backs Nathan Krakouer Troy Chaplin Domenic Cassisi

Centreline Shaun Burgoyne Chad Cornes Steven Salopek

Half forwards Robbie Gray Warren Tredrea Peter Burgoyne

Forwards Brendon Lade Daniel Motlop Brett Ebert

Followers Dean Brogan Kane Cornes Danyle Pearce

Interchange Travis Boak Josh Carr Matt Thomas Wade Thompson

Emergencies Tom Logan Toby Thurstans Matthew Westhoff

In Dean Brogan Matt Thomas Wade Thompson

Out David Rodan (omitted) Toby Thurstans (omitted) Justin Westhoff (foot)

New Wade Thompson (North Adelaide)

MELBOURNE

Backs Lynden Dunn Matthew Warnock Jared Rivers

Half backs James Frawley Stefan Martin Brock McLean

Centreline Jamie Bennell Aaron Davey Clint Bartram

Half forwards Matthew Bate Colin Sylvia Cale Morton

Forwards Brad Miller Ricky Petterd Brent Moloney

Followers Paul Johnson Cameron Bruce Brad Green

Interchange Kyle Cheney Neville Jetta Nathan Jones John Meesen

Emergencies Addam Maric Michael Newton Jake Spencer

In Lynden Dunn John Meesen

Out James McDonald (hamstring) Jake Spencer (omitted)

New John Meesen (Norwood)

WHO'LL WIN?

If games are won and lost in the midfield then all you need to do is cast your eyes over the respective teams' midfield line ups and you can see what's about to come down. Port has Dean Brogan back after a week's rest courtesy of the AFL's judicial system and the talk of the town in Adelaide is that he's out for blood. He has a quality back up in Brendan Lade against the Demon rucks but probably won't need his help.

The game breakers in both of Melbourne's games so far have been the opposition ruckmen so I'd be backing Brogan to wrack up the points in all those fantasy footy competitions.

And around Brogan you'll find the Cornes brothers, Pearce, S. Burgoyne and Salopek who should have far too much class and skill for their Demon counterparts.

I'm not all that convinced about the rest of the Port Adelaide team and they must be mentally fragile after their thrashing at the hands of West Coast last week.

For its part Melbourne has an emerging back line but there are too many of its first choice players missing for my liking even if those players aren't champions. If you're a visiting team over here then you need to have close to your full list available. Melbourne's inexperience, lack of depth and the fact that too many players are still trying to find their feet after injury and form lapses will be a telling factor.

I expect a much better effort than 2008 and seeing as how it's been a big week in football for chickens, I reckon "Chook" McLean might have a good one at last if we're lucky.

Unfortunately, even luck won't be enough and it will still be Port Adelaide by 49 points.

[CHAMP 347]

It's been reported in our media that the AFL is contemplating fixturing some games at Adelaide Oval, which is undergoing a $90m facelift so perhaps the Demons could apply to play their Adelaide games at the famous cricket ground.

Any chance the powers-that-be might bring the shape of the ground into the 21st century as well. The sardine can configuration is fine for bike-racing and greyhounds but not much chop for footy or cricket.

[Little Goffy 14,451]

I'm hoping for a high scoring but reasonably close contest, to get our percentage up, but I don't expect a win.

Shame of shames, I haven't even tipped us. But given that the Demons are 50% of the tips I've missed so far this year, I can be cut some slack I think.

Right now we are off the bottom of the ladder by less than 1 percentage point, and just 2% behind freo as well.

Freo play Adelaide at Subiaco, so go Adelaide... (erk)

And surely we can count on the Dogs to dispose of Richmond.

After that, we play the Tigers for the right to not hold up the ladder, and if we win that game the crisis at Tigerland might just be enough to drop them in a psychological hole they won't dig out of.

At this stage Fremantle are our other big competitor for the spoon. If Pavlich doesn't pick up some form soon, they may have such a poor season we might not even come last even if we only have the mgic 'four or less wins'.

That's the reality, unless we manage to pump up our own performance over the course of the year and come home with seven or eight wins.

[Je Roos Salem 661]

I predict a close first half, but Port will run away victors in the end.

I hope we can give a good contest but it is important to win it out of the midfield. If out midfield is up and running (McLean, Jones, Cheney, Batram and Bruce) we can win

[Little Goffy 14,451]

The next best thing to a win would be to see that good first half performance we've been putting up, then the fade, and then a fighback in the last that brings it to the wire. A show of some resolve and the capacity to clamp down on a possible blowout, that would be a great sign.

[Chook 15,012]

Mark my words. We will be flogged. 110 points. Port Adelaide will almost triple our score and it's not going to be pretty.

[rumpole 515]

Mark my words. We will be flogged. 110 points. Port Adelaide will almost triple our score and it's not going to be pretty.

Chook.

Haven't I seen you before on a You Tube clip?

[NoOthaDemon 0]

With such a young list and a lot of new players, what are your expectations for the game against Port on Sunday? Everyone is expecting us to get beat by 10+goals, but i find it hard to think that losing by less 10 goals can be an achievement. For me i want to see a competitive 4 qtr match. Against Kangaroos we were for 3 qrts and against the scum we were for a half. This week i would like us to stick with our opponents for the whole match!! No more getting outscored 7 goals to 1 in a quarter! Also kicking more than 10 goals would be nice, but then again beggars cant be choosers:p!

[harry 1]

A lot of the youngsters haven't experienced the AAMI hoodoo as such. Therefore I don't think it applies to them. To me, the hoodoo was a hoodoo because we were quite good, but we always got belted at AAMI. Whereas now we get belted everywhere, so you can't really blame last year's losses at AAMI on the ground itself if you know what I mean? Perhaps now we are experiencing a football hoodoo?

Anyway, I predict the dees to win by 26. Newton to kick 11.

[Whispering_Jack 29,777]

A lot of the youngsters haven't experienced the AAMI hoodoo as such. Therefore I don't think it applies to them. To me, the hoodoo was a hoodoo because we were quite good, but we always got belted at AAMI. Whereas now we get belted everywhere, so you can't really blame last year's losses at AAMI on the ground itself if you know what I mean? Perhaps now we are experiencing a football hoodoo?

Anyway, I predict the dees to win by 26. Newton to kick 11.

Is that 11 for the Demons or the Scorpions?

[Guest JACKtheRIPPER]

expectations for tomorrow, they flew to perth last week and were flogged, considering we can only play about 25 mins of consistent footy our chances are not good, but one thing i would like to point out is, watching the replay last week i noticed baileys expressions in the coaches box, as far as im concerned a few times there he looked like malthouse, now when hes won a few games he can afford to do that, i thought his demeanor in the box last week wasnt good, and as far as im concerned at the moment hes only as good as his players.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

We stink at AAMI, so anything under 10 goals would be an achievement.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

I expect our young team to play with aggression, to chase tackle and pressure the opposition. I expect our team to play with vigour running and improved skills. I expect one of our solid backs to hold Motlop and one of our young boys to frustrate Burgoyne every time he goes near it. I expect our team to kick goals. I want to see some fist pumping and some bum slapping. I want to see some spirit and confidence grow in our team as the game progresses. I want this game to be step one in recovering our lost respect.

I want to see and improved showing from Brock, time to step up and be a leader in the absence of Junior. I expect to see one of our young boys excell and excite us.

I want to give those PA a*&$*s hell. Mostly I want to see Chad Cornes, Warren Treadrea and Mark Williams have thier pants pulled down and get booed off AAMI stadium in humiliation and embarassment.

[H_T 3,043]

Mark my words. We will be flogged. 110 points. Port Adelaide will almost triple our score and it's not going to be pretty.

hey chook were you not in that nth melb you tube clip.. Its just as well you tipped port by 110points then. In all honesty i cant see melbourne getting the four points over there in adelaide although i am not predicting a smashing.. Port by 49.

[Sydney Pennski 294]

Is that 11 for the Demons or the Scorpions?

Does anyone know who the 23rd player will be who we take on the plane to Adelaide?

Couldn't be Spencer because you would want him to have a run again this week to help him with his learning of the ruckman's craft and to get more fitness into his legs. Maric also needs more time on the ground to help in his recovery after hip surgery. That leaves Juice IMO & if that's the case he won't kick his 11 with either team.

[classy dees 42]

Given it is AAMI and our record there and our team which is young as well as missing 7 or 8 key players, i realistically have no expectations at all.

that said i would like to see continued improvement from the rivers/frawley/warnock axis. green/bruce to stand up. davey to have a good 100th. a damaging game from morton, and something from one of the 3 new players. something out of meesen wouldn't go astray.

[rusty_kingswood 0]

....None!

[Carn dees 108]

hopeing were not as bad as westcoast..surely not but wouldnt go past it, but im hoping weve improved enough from lesssons last year not lto et it happen.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,777]

A 4 goal loss should be a goal for the club.

A statement needs to made to the AFL that we won't be push overs this year.

I'm sure the Port players and fans are expecting to roll up and beat us by 12 goals. We need to change this perception.

[Hannabal 4]

A 4 goal loss should be a goal for the club.

You are joking right ?

Their goal should be nothing other than a victory.

[45HG 1,539]

No wonder we're viewed as push overs if we should set a 4 goal loss as an aim for the club

[MelbournePassion 7]

A good honest effort is what we should expect. I believe we can win this. I believe we can win any match, because I am a true believer.

GO DEES

[Je Roos Salem 661]

A good game from Lynden Dunn is my expectation. He needs to play a solid game if he wants to keep his spot in the team.

[Guest JACKtheRIPPER]

A good game from Lynden Dunn is my expectation. He needs to play a solid game if he wants to keep his spot in the team.

[MelbournePassion 7]

A good game from Lynden Dunn is my expectation. He needs to play a solid game if he wants to keep his spot in the team.

True