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No it doesn’t. If the Crows didn’t get the answer they were hoping for, then it sounds like Petty’s manager called to say Petty is no longer interested in going to Adelaide.

Bit confused by this. The first tweet seems to suggest Adelaide have gone cold. The second seems to suggest Petty no longer wants to go.

Statistics in the AFL are almost always used to 'explain' and never 'predict'. We see a result and find stats that suit our observation. But rarely are any places like champion data creating valid predictions, which would be a true estimation of the usefulness of the selected statistics.

It's clearly not a meaningless or bad stat if the clubs put a lot of stock in it. Can you say that a team should have won a match because they won on expected scores by a small margin? No, you can't. So articles like the above from Fox Sports don't really help with interpretation of expected scores. Goalkicking is not entirely about "who performs under pressure" - there's an element of that, but there is also an element of luck with goalkicking. Regardless, expected scores provide two very useful and insightful metrics (even completely ignoring the "who should have won" perspective). Average expected score per shot This metric is a measure of average shot difficulty. Melbourne supporters bemoan Melbourne's strategy of kicking it to the pocket because it leads to more difficult shots. This metrics quantifies this. Melbourne rank 18th for average shot difficulty in 2024 (16th last year) and 18th for set shots only (17th last year). Average difference between actual and expected score per shot This metric is a measure of goalkicking accuracy, and much better than raw accuracy (goals divided by shots). People already look at the final tally of goals and behinds and draw conclusions such as a team should have won by more or were lucky to win. Two recent examples are: - Essendon defeating West Coast 11.11 to 11.5 - Adelaide defeating Carlton 16.4 to 14.14 On the surface, you assume West Coast were lucky to get as close thanks to their accurate kicking and you assume Adelaide was very lucky to win thanks to their apparent ridiculously accurate kicking. - West Coast had 24 shots to 23 and won expected scores 89.9 to 80.7. - Adelaide had 25 shots to 26 (despite it being 20 "scores" to 28) and only lost expected scores 92.8 to 95.8.

Pretty sure there won't be any more Thursday night matches in the remainder of the fixture (which I think is due to be released this week or next?). (Edit: plus we've already had two 5-day breaks which I believe is the maximum allowed for a side under the current CBA) But we do have the following options for prime time: Round 16 away vs Brisbane (we're on the Saturday night at home to North the week prior) Round 18 home vs Essendon Round 19 away vs Fremantle Round 20 home vs GWS Round 22 home vs Port Round 24 home vs Collingwood We've had four Thursday nights, ANZAC Eve and King's Birthday to Round 15, but no Friday nights, so I'd like to think that, given we'll be doing OK at the time they release the remaining fixture, we might be in line for a few more prime time matches from that slate. Agree otherwise though that whilst the 5-day break this week is difficult, it hopefully won't hit as hard as the one leading into the Brisbane game did given the previous weeks.

It’s a very dicey one. For me, prior to his injury, I’d have no hesitation. But with it, you just get some uncertainty with the longer term impacts of his injury. Trust the club to do the right thing here….

Get Roy George on our list already!

https://live.squiggle.com.au/ is a much better indicator. have a look at those past premierships. gotta be in that top right hand corner.

He is GtG

I thought he was a RFA at 2025?

Robbo preparing for 360

Bowey hasn’t played since round zero and I saw nothing from Hunter at Casey to deserve a call up To me the only two that could put their hand up from Casey were AMW and Roy George who isn’t on our list

Massive massive win for us and a vote for our culture if he stays. Fingers crossed. I think he can be a real weapon up forward and is a rarely talented swingman. He will want a decent contract and I reckon deserves it.

Just waiting for the re-signing interview to drop now where Petts says he never seriously considered leaving.

I meant selection in the 1’s. Honestly I’m 50/50. I think he needs his confidence bolstered.. is it better he tries to get that in the AFL or go back a step to step forward?

Agree, it definitely a useful indicator. We have usually been in that so called premiership quadrant ever since they started using it (and on that graphic almost are now) It just gets a bit silly when the fox crew treat it like it is some sort of statistical Rosetta stone I mean, the sample size is small and for example we are marginally outside an arbitrary line. And because you have applied a level of analysis the fox crew haven’t, you have highlighted a possible explanation for say where we are located on the graph. I get the whole thing is about creating content and talking points and pretty graphics that lend some gravitas. But it just reinforces the scepticism about the use of stats and analytics to help understand the game

For those of you who listen to SEN (yes my alias is FOG), I rang up Dwayne’s world (Sam Edmond) today and made light of the fact that if you estimate there were 45k Melbourne fans there on Saturday. Total crowd of 52k. Thats 86% of our current membership base numbers, 54k at present. The cats just don’t turn up to games away from Geelong, he played devils advocate and said they find it hard on school nights and prefer afternoon games and asked if I felt sorry for them, to which I replied “NO it’s a Saturday night! It’s prime time!” Also another fun fact. Umpire #27 used to be a co-captain at the Northern Bullants in 2013 (aligned with Carlton) might explain a few non decisions.

Windsor will be on one of the footy shows on Foxtel tonight or tomorrow night too

The 5 day break shouldn't be an issue. Stats show that it becomes an issue when you either have a significant difference to the break of your opponent, or when you're having multiple consectuvie short weeks. Carlton will only get 1 extra day rest, and we had long breaks between the past two games, so it's not a factor nor an excuse. It was a fair excuse for the loss to Brisbane. Repeat short turnarounds compounding. After the Carlton game, we have breaks of 9 days, 7 days, 7 days, 8 days and then a bye. After the bye, there aren't many big games that would get scheduled for a Thursday or Friday, so we should avoid many more short turnarounds.

Was thinking this yesterday. He certainly seems to get the ball more often than Charlie did in 2023 but perhaps Charlie had more reliable disposal. I think Charlie will find it difficult to regain his spot assuming no injuries to his competitors. I'd be looking at Hunter as an impact sub assuming he can improve his speed and kicking style (low bullets). Not really sure what other role there is for him

Saw that Bitter. Because Daicos never plays for a free kicks right.....

Everyone is talking about humble pie but I'm sure it was the my game night lazy pancake dinner that did the trick. Humble pancakes are what you eat when you never said Petty was a bust or anything like that, just that you thought he was more valuable and effective as a defender and it wasn't worth persisting with the forward experiment.

Daicos allowed to run through the stoppage under no pressure [censored]

To reiterate how consistent we've been since 2021, Carlton are the only team to have a multiple game (2) winning streak against us. If we win on Thursday, the only losing streaks we have are single games against Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood, Fremantle, and GWS. Such a contrast to those losing streaks to Hawthorn and North Melbourne during the dark days.

With Tracc it would help break the tag which seems to be happening most games lately Pickett also provides a great miss match