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There’s no room for your reasoning here Wayne. More outrage or get out.

Happy to have horse racing only thread.

Agree on name change of thread. A few years back i started a punting thread but got no traction so haven't bothered. I saw this one and assumed it was out of date. I love the horses but largely focus on the Autumn and Spring Carnivals. I also like footy betting, the line mainly. Autumn carnival is my favourite carnival. It stretches from aprox next weekend through to Easter, with ours first and then Sydney (and obviously their Autumn carnival is much better than their short Spring Carnival) whereas over Spring they overlap meaning big outlays. Also i find the form is more reliable over Autumn. In Melbourne there are smaller fields than Spring but importantly the form lines are much more reliable and easier to line up, with many horses coming through the same races. Also the consistently firm tracks help and some horses just like this time of year more. In Sydney the wet tracks make picking winners easier as it they knock out half the field. The Spring carnival is a lottery. The odds on futures are tempting but realistically they are always super weighted in the bookies favour given how many horses don't get to their GF. I only ever take them a week or so out, and even then not very often. Actually the only race i really look at for futures is the Blue Diamond. I liked the fight Long leaf has been showing but Olivander also appeals with how it has been running on.

Had about a million disposals in the last quarter. Almost pulled us over the line for a win. After that game I was excited to have him in red and blue. I was naive.

I think there are two reasons: 1- They are being ranked in relation to their peers, but their peers will develop more in their final year (or the latter half of it). As a result, any development of the injured player is invisible to recruiters, while the uninjured players continue to improve. So the recruiters need to extrapolate any potential development to be able to rank them equally with their peers. This represents a risk, especially for a player like Spargo who may have developed earlier than others. 2- It may actually be a really nasty injury that could affect the player. Burton was, Stringer was, Lever could have been (see Menzel). I agree that shoulders are unlikely to, but there are others. Will they be the same player again? Probably, but it is a genuine risk when you have invested a top 20 pick and a lot of money. I think the first is more relevant to Spargo. When you are 17, a year of development is a lot. So he may have been an earlier ranked player with his peers before he was injured, but the rest are now better players than Spargo was before he was injured. The risk is in the unknown.

The discussion on Spargo is both interesting and encouraging, from his descriptions we at least will find out what his potential is because he will give himself every chance. What I also find interesting is the continual references from different things I've read about him being a much higher pick other than for his injury. If those reports are right we've picked up someone who was potentially top 10 at pick 29 because he hurt his shoulder, an injury that is unlikely to have long-term implications. My question is this. Why do recruiters mark down players that have injuries in their draft year to such an extent? Two recent players that have been marked down are Lever and Burton, players who are now playing well above their draft pick and close to where why were expected to go if they had not been injured. I'm sure more enthusiastic junior footy followers will know of other examples but others that come to mind are Joel Selwood, Jake Stringer and even perhaps Chris Judd. If Spargo was genuinely top 10 (or top 5 as Dazzle I think mentioned) how does he get to 29? It's even more confusing when you consider Geelong and WCE (from memory) had multiple picks shortly before we picked him up. I understand his issue with size but that aside the practice of marking down players who are injured in their draft year to such an extent is strange and I think it presents excellent opportunities particularly if you have a strong list.

That was an impressive win by D B Pin Macca, once again your selections were spot on. Thanks to you I placed the same trifecta as above. Dividends aren't huge by any means, but look at the bright side, we collect on two trifectas.

Not by me!

It’s hard to know the whole picture of what went on when that decision for him to play was made. As good as modern medical testing is in professional sport, the medical and fitness team largely rely on the honesty of the player. Hopefully Viney was completely upfront with them and wasnt trying to be too ‘tough’. (Though that’s one of the things we all love about him.) Chris Judd spoke recently about how he misled medical staff about how he was feeling in order to get back into the team/training track sooner. Players can feel very guilty watching their team struggle without them.

It's my reckoning that the horse will run 3 races in Sydney during the Autumn Carnival and then head off to Europe to contest those 3 races it has been possibly earmarked for. 4 races in either hemisphere is too many if that's the plan. After that they'll either retire the horse or it might possibly run in one more Cox Plate. It's either/or but I favour the former argument. Which would be a shame because if it could win a 4th Cox Plate it would be a fantastic thing to happen.

You're right Macca, Winx will be 7 next spring. The odds (Pre Noms) for the Cox have her listed a $3 favourite, which suggests it might not be a plan. Every other horse is at double figure odds. $3 for Winx would usually have people lining up to back her.

My first Cup Day in attendance was way back in 1976 - pelted down all day but I backed the winner (Van Der Hum) ... so crowded that we didn't even see the race. Those were the days! Anyway, it would have to be a super horse to win the Melbourne Cup 4 times. And it would probably have to win the race as a 3yo to have any chance. You never know, it's a real long shot but it may happen. Winx could win the Cox Plate for a 4th time (that would be a record?) but I'm not sure it will ever contest the race again. Think I'm right in saying that Winx is a 6 year old (right now) so it would be a 7 year old next Spring.

Do you think we will see another horse in our lifetime win the Melbourne Cup 3 years running? I was a massive fan of Vinnie Roe, he was a quality stayer but he just couldn't topple the great mare. I attended the 2004 Melb Cup, the downpour fazed no one that day, that great race will be a long lasting memory.

Winx is possibly more of a mile horse at it's optimum best these days Wadda - of course, it often brains them at 2000m but perhaps not always as convincingly as it once did (it just lasted in last year's Cox Plate) The connections of Winx have earmarked 3 races in Europe which it may contest (if it goes over there) - 2 are over the 1600m & only 1 is over the 2000m. Think I'm right in saying that Makybe Diva nearly won an Orr Stakes (1400m) yet we all know how good the horse was as a stayer. The great 1600m horses can also be great at 1400m ... but all the way down to 1200m? Maybe. But we are talking about Winx and the Everest will carry prizemoney of $12Million this year (man, that's a lot of money) Manikato was a great mile horse but would often drop down to 1200m and win.

If the " A Day at the Races" kicks off and we add some more members contributing maybe we can start some kind of tipping competition. Whilst browsing the NFL thread Macca I noticed you ran a competition between a few of you. The Idea consists of a 3-2-1 points system where the members can nominate a meeting during a Carnival. For example, let's nominate Blue Diamond day. We all select a horse for each race on the day and selections must be posted prior to the first race. If time doesn't allow for people to browse all races maybe we can select the quaddie legs for the competition. Win a race and you receive 3 points, 2 for second and 1 for third. We could double the points for the main race of the day. This doesn't have to be for financial purposes just some "In House" fun. The winner on the day can have bragging rights and decide on a change of avatar of the last placegetter or something along those lines. I know there's a bit going on currently with the name changing of the thread and putting the word out to other horse racing enthusiasts but maybe something to keep in mind. Thoughts?

Well ... it's a strange thing about the smaller pools (as long as they're not too small) - sometimes the exotic dividends are higher than you'd calculate. Certain horses that are decent can be passed over in smaller pools. Especially in the group races overseas there are some very good horses that blow out in the odds (W & P) so those same horses may also often not get included in the exotics. By the same token the popular combo's can pay a bit less (because most are on them?) I obviously bank on best case scenario with my multiples whilst at the same time not ignoring the popular combo's - that largely explains why I often just get money back or a bit more or less. There's a bit of money wagered at Sha Tin as a general rule - the money comes late though. Not sure on Europe as I have historically only ever had the odd bet there (that may change this year ) I only ever bet at the TAB and they don't often cover the races from Japan. We've got the triple crown from the States to consider as well - I love those 3 races.

If you don't hear back from the OP you could ask the mods, Wadda. Anyway, I'm off to get on at Sha Tin. The Centenary Sprint Cup looks to be 'Mr Stunning's to lose. Should win and the early markets reflect that. By contrast The Stewards Cup is a wide open affair where any number of horses can feature - should be a great race. The prizemoney on offer in both races is huge. Hugh Bowman (who rode at Warwick Farm on Friday!) is on a Werther in the Stewards Cup (it is at good odds and a definite chance) whilst Nash Rawiller is on Mr Stunning. Zac Purton & Brett Prebble are both riding today at HK as well. The free-to-air racing channel is covering the event. For me the Group 1 racing is like watching the big teams in world sport go at each other - but for high interest you've got to at least have a small wager on the Group 1's

Yeah, it was flying before the 200m mark. You can see it kept to the one pace after that. Hope hes ok, think it shows promise for sure D77.

A Day at the Races it is then. Ive requested that title change to the OP. The others have indicated a like, so ill take that as a yes.

" A Day at the Races " gets my vote. I am unsure where they will head with Santos during the Autumn. The following link is his latest run. A couple of points out of the race. Keep your eye on the far left of screen (widest barrier/yellow silks), begins awkwardly and is out wide albeit with cover. In the straight it looms as a winner but around the 200 metre mark is when the horse suffered the leg injury. Connections were mostly pleased at how the horse managed to fight on to the finish after sustaining the injury. http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2017Oct14&VenueCode=MjY4MTI4&RaceNumber=2&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay

'A Day at the Races' has a friendly feel to it ... and it almost says to people to not take things too seriously. Bet with expendable income only has always been my motto as well as always drink responsibly and try not to smoke. We can have a lot of fun here and during our winter I fully intend to introduce (or reintroduce) people to the wonderful racing on offer in Europe. There are often 2 or 3 Group 1 races every week where we see the best of the best (the creme de la creme!) Hopefully the free-to-air racing channel covers these big events but there's always youtube (the big races from Europe are often posted up a few hours later) So as the Autumn carnival finishes here we've got the choice of the Queensland & South Australian carnivals or the big races across Europe. Which leads us into the Spring Carnival again and then Ascot/Magic Millions. It never stops!

Yes, thats it Macca, theres no rush. Lets get it right. I kinda like the idea of retaining this thread as there is some really good info to refer back to, such as your trifecta combinations etc. as well as some excellent videos. (others will now read these as well). I kinda like a Day at the Races, as it has a slightly iconic feel to it, as well as a bit comical. It also says exactly what we are talking about. A day at the races. A general sports betting thread is fine with me. Im also thinking about a footy punting thread to go onto the Footy club site. It may stop all the annoying posts in the post match about betting against the Dees. If people dont want to read about punting, then they just stay away from the thread.

People will know what it means and it's a bit different ... I'll vote for it but the majority rules. Good idea Wadda ... there's no rush. And in the meantime we can absolutely decide on a name for the horse racing thread. A general sports betting thread is a good idea as well - I'd contribute my 2 cents worth with regards to the NBA or the NFL. You've got my vote to start up both threads (unless we can change the name of this thread)

I really like Waterhouse trained horses in Sydney, but more so 1400 meters and above. I love that they are mostly front runners as you always get a good sight and there is no doubt that taken in totality horses that race on speed win more races. I hate backing a horse that gets caught in traffic or cop interference, which is obviously more of a risk for back markers. Front runners also even out the skill difference in jockeys (because jockeys at the front just have to focus on tempo, not weaving through traffic or timing their run), allow a jockey to control race temp and crucially in Spring ensure they are better placed on those days where there is a leaders bias (which seems to be happening more often).

I remember you mentioning Santos D77. He looks a likely type. Its good to be able to follow a horse where we have some connection to the stable and possibly some heads up info. With Dan on the sidelines, maybe Santos can be our new horse.

I PMd the OP requesting the thread title be changed. If i dont hear back from them within the week, ill start a new one.

The bloke that part owns Dan also has a small percentage in a horse called Santos trained by the Waterhouse/Bott stable. It's getting ready for the Autumn carnival and could be one to follow. It's shown ability in his two starts but did suffer a leg injury in his second start. All is well with the horse now and it's $51 currently for the Golden Slipper. Here is Santos in a trial on the 12th of Jan. http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2018Jan12&VenueCode=MjY4MTI4&RaceNumber=10&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=FullReplay

A Day at the Races is perfect. Brilliant. Done. I agree with you re other sports and reading to much stuff, its tedious. I was more thinking along the lines of what you said about attracting more punters. But Binman has now proved your point.

What can be an issue if we're not specific is that people can start talking about other stuff that doesn't appeal. Personally I would scroll straight past any chatter about Greyhound racing, fantasy sports of any description, betting against the Demons etc etc. Leave me right out of that stuff. After reading what @binman had to say above we definitely need a new thread ... the name of this one leads to people just ignoring because they probably see it as irrelevant. So @Wadda We Sing ... you kick it off mate if everyone agrees. We just need a name - I've suggested my 2 ('The Horse Racing Thread' or 'All Things Horse Racing') but I'm not completely sold on either. 'A Day at the Races' ... 'Lose Your Shirt' ... 'It's a Mug's Game' ha ha

I guess The Horse Racing Thread is the one then, as horse racing inevitably includes punting. So im happy with that then.

We can still start a new thread Wadda ... What about ... 'The Horse Racing Thread' or 'All Things Horse Racing' For general sports betting ... 'The Sports Betting Thread' There is nothing wrong with having separate threads ... we do it here with entertainment (Music x 2, Television, Movies) and a stack of different sports have their own thread (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, Cricket, Cycling etc etc) The Thoroughbreds deserves it's own thread!

Adelaide (mostly navy with some red and yellow) fair enough to wear light blue Carlton - fair enough Essendon - black with red - fair enough Freo - purple which is pretty close to navy blue - fair enough Port - black - fair enough Saints - black and red and white. Fair enough. No problem wearing the light blue v any of these teams. And no, just white shorts doesn't really cut it anymore. You've gotta be able to tell teams apart at a quick glance at 70/80m away. Thats what the players have to do so i have no problems with distinguishing clash jumpers. I remember seeing a dees player handball to an essendon player in about 2001 because they just saw the flash of the jumper in traffic. Im more than happy to wear this kit v these teams. Makes a big difference having this one which is good instead of the horrible ones weve had in the past. Think I'll get #2 on mine haha

Welcome aboard Binman. The more the merrier! Look forward to reading your insights as well as the other guys. Ok Macca, perhaps we should just stick to racing then. I doubt there will be mush interest in an other sports punting thread, so im happy just to keep things as they are for now. Lets just change this thread title then. Binman do you know how to do that??

I'd prefer to talk about the thoroughbreds only as I don't just see it as a betting sport only. Especially during the carnivals I'd prefer to only read about what's going on with the races. I reckon we could have 2 threads - general sports betting (needs a name) & a thread for thoroughbred horse racing only (needs a name)

I've actually toned down as I aged, in late 60's thanks to slavishly copying Noel Redding and his hairstyle and my lack of height, I was often mistaken for a fluorescent dandelion, until I saw sense, threw my peace and love outfits away and joined the military

Oh nothing really, but it was in a box because i was somehow quoting myself....nevermind.

That would work IMO. Some people are not into the "Punt" so to speak and don't want to hear about it in other threads. In the post match discussion topics last season some posters were quick to tell us they backed the opposition against us, classic example was the Norf game in Tassie, someone gloated about betting on them to beat us. Most of us were pretty gutted after that loss and reading that irked people even more. Another example was our disaster in Round 23. We were $11 to miss the finals yet people reminded us what a good bet that was. I realise people can post anything related to the games but I also realise some Demonlanders don't want to read about it.

What's wrong with it Wadda?

Also rather that get OPs and Mods to try and change the Thread title, lets just start a new one. We can always come back to this if need be. I nominate that we call it, "The Punting Thread." Because people may also want to post about multis etc on Football games inc The Mighty Demons....as well as the races.....Thoughts??

Not sure what i did wrong here, too early for me on a Sunday i gues......just read the above.

First in best dressed? I have always felt that the best bet just comes to you. I usually look at about 8 races most weekends during the carnivals to see where I can find a 'value' trifecta. I end up eliminating races if I find too many horses that can win or ... if 1 horse stands out. And there lies my way of finding a best bet. It's a process of elimination. But I will rarely have a bet on that horse because the odds are often too low - but including the horse in a multi is different. For instance ... in the Centenary Sprint Cup tomorrow at Sha Tin I expect the no.1 horse to win (Mr Stunning) I might normally dismiss the race as a betting race but I like to have a wager on the Group 1 races because I know I will be tuning in to watch.

You can read all about it when I start my own thread!

Nah think us 2 are closer What do think @Six6Six

What a great thread, very complex questions answered so well and detailed. As I can follow. But I only played reserve grade amatures. Running around chasing the ball really. The crystal balls the recruiters have are large indeed. We are as blessed now as we were stuffed before with our earlier recruits. Change of personnel is a credit to our FD I assume. I also hope Mr Spargo goes as well as his highlights package indicates I for one was most impressed. Go Dees

Interesting question VP. I think it’s just risk/return territory i.e. with a top pick, recruiters probably feel safer in selecting a kid who has proven form over the past year. As everyone knows though, we closely followed Lever in his draft year and he was apparently in the mix for picks 2&3 but the club simply couldn’t go past Petracca and Brayshaw. Hence the Trengove to Richmond for pick 12 trade, which was to be used on him. Jaidyn Stephenson, who Collingwood picked up last year, probably fits the category of an elite junior with injury concerns who was still selected with a high draft pick. If Collingwood didn’t pick him, he may very well have slid to pick 20 or so. Spargo will be a player - you kind of just know he will. He’s the sort of player the Swans would typically land with a second round pick. Pleasantly surprised that we landed him though.

He got that number from Gysberts!

Hard as a cats head and hates losing........... AND he has skills. Exactly what we have needed more of for years. Might just be our biggest surprise packet in "18

Someone I know watched a lot of his school footy last year. I believe he was the Captain of Melbourne Grammar. Said 4 things :- 1. Hard as nails. Runs through brick walls. 2. Highly skilled. Very good kick and exceptional goal sense. 3. Very strong contested overhead mark with an unusually high vertical leap for his height. 4. Great kid.

Gday guys, on one of the training thread there's been a few doubts on young Charlie about his size and whether he can translate his ability to AFL level. Thought I'd bring this thread up and have my 2 cents worth. Just on Spargo, I had a bit to do with him when he was in the under 16s bushies . I didn't bother to write anything up on him when we drafted him (lack of interest in demonland at the time) but I thought I'd post my thought a on him now. Goody is going to fall in love coaching this young fella, he is 18 years old going onto 25 in terms of maturity and level headed. He was driven right from the very young age to succeed in footy and make AFL. He started playing senior footy for Albury in the strong Ovens and Murray league (step below VFL) at 16 and was still running rings around former AFL players with such ease. It was tipped right from then that this kid could potentially be the next big thing despite his size. He was quick, tough as F**k, and most importantly, driven and determined to make it. Despite being a quiet and down to earth sort of fella, he just oozes leadership on field! We played a praccy match against Bendigo once and he was captain for the day. The whole day he was barking orders, setting up midfield stoppages, encouraging teammtes, and giving direct feedback to coaching and senior officials on what was going right and wrong. He'll be in the leadership group in a couple of years. Mark my words. Obviously being in boarding school this year I barely got time to see any of his games (injured also). But we got word back from some recruiters that if it wasn't for injury he would be top 10 without a doubt. 3 clubs had even made mentioned that if he was just a smidge taller and injury free, they had penciled him for top 5. Every club rated him and the giants were absolutely filthy when they lost first rights to him. He is a genuine talent. If I was to compare him to someone in terms of toughness, leadership and skill? it would be Joel Selwood. He has everything that you need in terms of the culture you're trying to build and set. Yes I've pumped up his tyres, but the biggest test for him will be the transition to AFL level. The likes of Caleb Daniel and Eddie Betts have shown that it is possible if you've got the ticker and drive to succeed. I believe young Spargo has this. The likes of Jones, Viney, Oliver and Lewis will crave having this kid in the side running full tilt into packs and come out ball in hand. I don't want to put too much pressure on the kid but in my honest opinion, he is an absolute beauty! Hope that helps.