8 hours ago, bing181 said:

Except that it usually doesn't. Those are outliers. Go through all the sides with poor win-loss ratios over the last 10 years (you went back to 2015), and see how things turned out.

But even in what you've cited you're cherry picking. e.g., Hawthorn. You omitted the 5 long seasons before 2024 when they lost more games than they won. It actually took them 6 seasons to make finals again after 2018, hardly a case of "it can turn quickly".

Always great to be optimistic, but let's be realistic here.

I think youre confusing "it can happen" with "it will happen".

8 hours ago, AzzKikA said:

I'm keeping my hopes very low. Too many times over my life we've had a new coach entering a new year only to be brought back to reality by a flogging in the first round that pretty much sets the tone for the whole year.

What are you basing this on? Most of our coaches, for decades, have propelled us forward. We had that horrible period where the whole club sucked in the noughties .... and we didn't find good replacements for our veterans (nor recruit or develop talent well) .....and Bailey and Neeld saw our team go backward. But arguably post-Barrassi these were the only ones who 'saw' us go backwards. In the meantime within two years Northey, Balme and Goody had us go from also-rans to preliminary finalists .... while Daniher saw us go from last to prelims in under a year!

Argue what you like about round one (especially as I think we beat the reigning premiers to start 97 yet ended up with the spoon.) But, if anything , often a new coach has seen Melbourne becone surprise packets.

I think we will finish somewhere between 6th and 10th - not sure how many wins that will relate to. We may start slowly but I believe we will come home strongly.

54 minutes ago, Go Ds said:

What are you basing this on? Most of our coaches, for decades, have propelled us forward. We had that horrible period where the whole club sucked in the noughties .... and we didn't find good replacements for our veterans (nor recruit or develop talent well) .....and Bailey and Neeld saw our team go backward. But arguably post-Barrassi these were the only ones who 'saw' us go backwards. In the meantime within two years Northey, Balme and Goody had us go from also-rans to preliminary finalists .... while Daniher saw us go from last to prelims in under a year!

Argue what you like about round one (especially as I think we beat the reigning premiers to start 97 yet ended up with the spoon.) But, if anything , often a new coach has seen Melbourne becone surprise packets.

That's the era I'm talking about, after Daniherbwas sacked.

I'm just not confident that's all

I'm looking forward to next season more than I have for any season since 2022.

Do I think we'll finish top 8? Probably not, but there's a real freshness in the air. Almost as if a massive weight has been lifted off the club's shoulders.

Realistically, I think we'll finish around 10/11th, but there'll be some real excitement in how we play as we continue to get games into the likes of Langford, Lindsay and now Taylor and Pickett V2.

Bold prediction: CJ will be one of the top five recruits of the trade period.

8-10 wins.

At least two Rising Star noms.

An AA other than Gawn.

Beating Collingwood, Geelong and Carlton.

7 hours ago, AzzKikA said:

That's the era I'm talking about, after Daniherbwas sacked.

I'm just not confident that's all

We all know that era was an unmitigated disaster. Even a premiership-winning coach in his first two years could only get our rabble from absolute laughing stock to mediocre battlers. But are we still in that era?

6 win minimum. 8 wins the line. 10 wins my hope. King is inheriting a good list that got stale with some high quality kids to develop and some quality role playing recruits added to the mix. As I have stated in other threads the loss of 2025 McVee and 2025 Oliver (negated by Steele) is negligible. Trac is a heavy loss but structurally Mihocek if fit is a strong gain. List looks more balanced and if we get a decent injury run who knows. It will likely take time for a new gameplan to embed but we will also be very unpredictable to opposition planning.

Edited Sunday at 20:041 day by Lil_red_fire_engine

8 hours ago, praha said:

8-10 wins.

At least two Rising Star noms.

An AA other than Gawn.

Beating Collingwood, Geelong and Carlton.

Im with you but 10 definate wins the benchmark and important seasons from young guns, Latrell, Bison, Lindsay, Jeffo, Moose, Windsor, Taylor and important contributions from Mihocek, Steele, C.J, as well as usual output from regulars.

On 07/01/2026 at 23:36, bing181 said:

Easy to see us going 0 - 6 or 1 - 6 on that (Essendon?).

I feel we have a decent enough backline (though losing McVee + Bowie won't help), a decent enough forward line now with Pickett x 2 plus Mihocek. But around the ball some of those teams could cut us to ribbons.

Any clue on Jake’s return date?

On 05/12/2025 at 09:00, Demonland said:

What's your Pass Mark for the Dees in 2026?

It's come to this.

Gee the dogs after winning their flag didn't deteriorate as much as us

I get ten wins is a positive improvement but a pass should really be playing finals.

The funny thing about goals and expectancy is that they are usually self fullfilling.

The club needs to be aiming for a top four pass mark so that if we scrape into 8th it's not too shabby.

If we aim for ten wins , I guarantee we will walk away with 8.

I know we've lost a lot of talent but hopefully we have also lost the disharmony and division.

I want that comradery of 2021 back in spades.

And this should also be a make or break year for about seven players in my book.

No more mediocre performances or attitudes.

Enough with the poor delivery forward and the shabby kicking at goal.

It's been going on far too long.

And no more expectations of being given a spot.

Even stars should be immune to this.

I want players who don't chase and pressure with all the have dropped in a heartbeat.

There's been an expectancy by too many in the past of being selected despite their efforts.

That might put a rocket up a few.

That's the real litmus test for me .

7 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

6 win minimum. 8 wins the line. 10 wins my hope. King is inheriting a good list that got stale with some high quality kids to develop and some quality role playing recruits added to the mix. As I have stated in other threads the loss of 2025 McVee and 2025 Oliver (negated by Steele) is negligible. Trac is a heavy loss but structurally Mihocek if fit is a strong gain. List looks more balanced and if we get a decent injury run who knows. It will likely take time for a new gameplan to embed but we will also be very unpredictable to opposition planning.

Tracc at his best is a massive loss.

But let's face it he was all over the place after the Moore incident.

His goal kicking is abysimial and he has slowed down considerably.

Often takes a quarter and a half to get involved.

I think he, Oliver and Gus were all really tight teammates and things just went south.

Maybe the club did so wrong by him but it seemed as if he wasn't as motivated as much as before.

He'll probably be lethal again at his new club.

But our midfield imploded some time ago and the changes are all probably for the best

16 hours ago, Previously known as LITD. said:

It's come to this.

o

I get ten wins is a positive improvement but a pass should really be playing finals.

The funny thing about goals and expectancy is that they are usually self fullfilling.

The club needs to be aiming for a top four pass mark so that if we scrape into 8th it's not too shabby.

If we aim for ten wins , I guarantee we will walk away with 8.

I know we've lost a lot of talent but hopefully we have also lost the disharmony and division.

I want that comradery of 2021 back in spades.

And this should also be a make or break year for about seven players in my book.

No more mediocre performances or attitudes.

Enough with the poor delivery forward and the shabby kicking at goal.

It's been going on far too long.

And no more expectations of being given a spot.

Even stars should be immune to this.

I want players who don't chase and pressure with all the have dropped in a heartbeat.

There's been an expectancy by too many in the past of being selected despite their efforts.

That might put a rocket up a few.

That's the real litmus test for me .

16 hours ago, Previously known as LITD. said:

It's come to this.

Gee the dogs after winning their flag didn't deteriorate as much as us

I get ten wins is a positive improvement but a pass should really be playing finals.

The funny thing about goals and expectancy is that they are usually self fullfilling.

The club needs to be aiming for a top four pass mark so that if we scrape into 8th it's not too shabby.

If we aim for ten wins , I guarantee we will walk away with 8.

I know we've lost a lot of talent but hopefully we have also lost the disharmony and division.

I want that comradery of 2021 back in spades.

And this should also be a make or break year for about seven players in my book.

No more mediocre performances or attitudes.

Enough with the poor delivery forward and the shabby kicking at goal.

It's been going on far too long.

And no more expectations of being given a spot.

Even stars should be immune to this.

I want players who don't chase and pressure with all the have dropped in a heartbeat.

There's been an expectancy by too many in the past of being selected despite their efforts.

That might put a rocket up a few.

That's the real litmus test for me .

We deteriorated more than the Dogs? Tenth, thirteenth and then two elimination finals losses after finishing 7th a week earlier? Sure the year after they make the GF (and we won't). But we're arguing whether two teams did the equivalent of coming 19th ot 20th in the Melbourne Cup.

17 hours ago, Previously known as LITD. said:

Tracc at his best is a massive loss.

But let's face it he was all over the place after the Moore incident.

His goal kicking is abysimial and he has slowed down considerably.

Often takes a quarter and a half to get involved.

He was top 15 in the league last season for score involvements. It is a decent gap to fill in a side wanting to score more.

6 minutes ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

He was top 15 in the league last season for score involvements. It is a decent gap to fill in a side wanting to score more.

Jeff White mentioned this in his game plan evaluation. Seemed to think we would cover it plus with the new game plan...but didn't from memory name names.

Maybe the plan itself opens up involvement but a player/players are going to have to step up.

It's an interesting watch.

14 minutes ago, rjay said:

Jeff White mentioned this in his game plan evaluation. Seemed to think we would cover it plus with the new game plan...but didn't from memory name names.

Maybe the plan itself opens up involvement but a player/players are going to have to step up.

It's an interesting watch.

Players aren't robots. If morale was low - and Trac leaving improves it - better morale will help negotiate the gap Petracca, the player, leaves.

26 minutes ago, rjay said:

Jeff White mentioned this in his game plan evaluation. Seemed to think we would cover it plus with the new game plan...but didn't from memory name names.

Maybe the plan itself opens up involvement but a player/players are going to have to step up.

It's an interesting watch.

It won't surprise me if we do a better job of spreading the load but it is the main watch point for me.

Honestly... regardless of where we finish , how many wins or AA's or lack of any of that. My pass mark is that a home base is made definite. If this is still not clear by the end of 26 Im calling the season a fail.

On 12/01/2026 at 00:58, Go Ds said:

We all know that era was an unmitigated disaster. Even a premiership-winning coach in his first two years could only get our rabble from absolute laughing stock to mediocre battlers. But are we still in that era?

I really hope we are not starting it again.

I’m not sure the pass mark is clear in a football sense it’s more about growth and transition to the new game plan.

club wise it’s pretty clear though we want a spike in game attendance, membership, confirmation of our home base and no signs of off field drama and chaos

10 minutes ago, AzzKikA said:

I really hope we are not starting it again.

Honestly who knows? I just know I'd rather be excited about 26. I'm not betting a cent on it or anything. It's just more exciting to not already feel like a bottom 6 finish ison the cards.

Edited 12 hours ago12 hr by Go Ds

On 12/01/2026 at 13:27, GawnOfTheDead said:

Any clue on Jake’s return date?

The club reported he'll be on the sidelines through to early June (approx).

Anything more than that and I reckon they'll pull the pin on his season and he can be cherry ripe for the next pre season.

Pass Mark for the Club in 2026

1. Membership Numbers increase, that will only happen with wins and an entertaining style of play. Sadly lacking over the past 2 Seasons

2. Young Players standing up, helping to create the new wins.

3. Traded Players coming in, giving solid contributions and improving their own games

4. So much has changed over the past 6 months, with more to come, it's hard to know how '26 will evolve

5. A pass mark should always be finals (The AFL has just created a Top 10, which I think is crazy, but it's the way it is)

6. Make Top 10 is a pretty low expectation

7. I hope King has far higher expectations than 10th...

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The club reported he'll be on the sidelines through to early June (approx).

Anything more than that and I reckon they'll pull the pin on his season and he can be cherry ripe for the next pre season.

To what extent, and by when, can a LTI player be replaced during a missed season?

As to these media pass marks, they are external views (as are ours) of what we ought to achieve. They aren't internal views of what we want to achieve.

I can't imagine the latter is less than, or even the same as, the former, for coach and players.

On 11/01/2026 at 16:28, Neil Crompton said:

I think we will finish somewhere between 6th and 10th - not sure how many wins that will relate to. We may start slowly but I believe we will come home strongly.

I'm with you on this Neil. Reckon we will be smokeys and upset a few pundits who said we will be ordinary. If from what I read on DL King is going to let the players play with instinct and really looking forward to watching us on the Tele from up here in Qld. Play quick running footy and our youngsters will come out of there shells. They will benefit from not being scared to make a mistake. Exciting season coming me reckons.