3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks for your efforts DD it appears that some of our veterans are really struggling with the new game plan do you think JV is more suited to our old crash and bash contest game style. We have an ingrained contest to contest game style and now are looking for a fast transition game relying on a more skilled subset, I’m thinking the young brigade will adopt quicker than our older players. I think that we need to enjoy the happier environment and now concentrate on getting our fitness and skills up to scratch.

I would never write Jack off DZ. Such a great servant and stalwart who has given so much.

However the signs are not good in a mid field sense. Whether it be the old crash bash / Richmond style we had our success with, or a new game style whatever that might be.

And tbh i'm unable to make head or tail of anything that Simon might be trying to change up. Can't see anything that would suggest he is attempting to do 'this' or 'that' with the players. Not so far anyway.

Jack's certainly been at the forefront of our old crash & bash and now probably paying the price.

And the trouble is, with a 0 - 4 start, Simon doesn't have the luxury to experiment too much. But he also can't sit still and continue to watch a train wreck through the middle and at stoppage. Amongst other substantial issues!

It seems we are waiting on McVee to return before running Rivers through the middle.

But if that's not this week or next why wait? Play someone else in River's role and move him into that role now.

Who could replace Rivers before McVee returns if needed?

Mr X? Sesto?

Another one we are missing at the coal face is the Kolt. He might be the replacement we need for Vines in the middle.

Cully a long way off and his capability unknown at this point. Might come in at some point late in season. Maybe earlier if he goes nuts at Casey.

Edited April 6Apr 6 by Demon Dynasty

This may have been posted elsewhere but still appropriate here...

The astonishing numbers that show how far the Dees have fallen - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1295850

And FWIW a look at the Player Ratings of 2021 vs 2025 from this article as well as my own ratings from these same seasons.

Keeping in mind that this article might be using the average data from the first three or the first four rounds. My Ratings are averages from the first four including against the Cats...

Edited April 12Apr 12 by Demon Dynasty

On 06/04/2025 at 03:07, DeeZone said:

it appears that some of our veterans are really struggling with the new game plan

Corrected ...

1 hour ago, Demon Dynasty said:

This may have been posted elsewhere but still appropriate here...

The astonishing numbers that show how far the Dees have fallen - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1295850

And FWIW a look at the Player Ratings of 2021 vs 2025 from this article as well as my own ratings from these same seasons.

Keeping in mind that this article might be using the average data from the first three or the first four rounds. My Ratings are averages from the first four including against the Cats...

Not sure astonishing is the right word, but damning all the same. The figures for Oliver confirm what the eyes are saying, which apart from anything is sad to see.

Regardless of whatever else is going on, lower tackle and contested possession count is rarely going to be a positive.

Melbourne v Essendon (Round 5, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250506

Key Team Stats

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Efficiency	70.6	77.0	-6.4
Kicking Efficiency	68.7	69.7	-1.0
Territory/Attack
Inside 50s	51	43	+8
Shots At Goal	17	22	-5
Shots Per Inside 50	33.3	51.2	-17.8
Marks Inside 50	8	15	-7
Contest
Contested Possessions	132	137	-5
Ground Ball Gets	84	100	-16
Post Clearance Contested Possessions	68	90	-22
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	51	67	-16
Centre Clearances	16	7	+9
Stoppage Clearances	29	34	-5
Contested Marks	4	13	-9
Defense
Intercepts	59	62	-3
Intercept Marks	17	10	+7
Tackles	54	57	-3
Tackles Inside 50	14	4	+10
Def One On One Loss %	40.0	27.8	+12.2
Ruck
Hitouts	58	34	+24
Hitouts To Advantage	15	8	+7

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match
Max Gawn	5.2	8.0	5.4	0.7	19.3
Ed Langdon	8.1	5.6	−1.1	3.1	15.8
Kysaiah Pickett	4.0	0.5	8.2	1.5	14.2
Christian Salem	1.5	4.3	3.3	4.8	13.8
Jake Bowey	3.9	3.6	2.9	2.6	13.0
Clayton Oliver	1.1	3.5	0.9	6.4	11.8
Harrison Petty	2.8	3.8	5.2	−0.1	11.7
Bayley Fritsch	1.2	2.0	6.4	1.6	11.1
Christian Petracca	4.0	6.3	1.2	−0.4	11.0
Kade Chandler	1.6	4.1	2.7	2.3	10.7
Trent Rivers	−0.8	2.0	3.6	5.6	10.4
Jake Melksham	2.8	0.0	7.1	0.0	9.9
Charlie Spargo	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.6	8.1
Harvey Langford	2.8	3.1	3.7	−2.2	7.4
Tom Sparrow	2.4	−0.5	0.1	4.8	6.9
Harry Sharp	0.0	0.0	5.7	0.3	6.0
Jacob van Rooyen	−1.2	2.1	3.4	0.7	5.1
Xavier Lindsay	−0.8	2.7	0.2	2.6	4.7
Jack Viney	2.3	1.7	0.2	0.5	4.7
Steven May	2.0	1.4	0.4	0.3	4.0
Tom McDonald	4.1	−3.5	0.7	1.3	2.6
Caleb Windsor	−0.6	1.7	−0.4	1.9	2.4
Jack Henderson	0.0	1.4	−0.9	0.0	0.5

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	2	2	0
Loose Ball Get	9	4	+5
Contested Mark	1	2	-1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	1	0	+1
Gather From Hitout	1	1	0
Contested Knock On	0	1	-1
Free For	3	2	+1
Total	17	12	+5
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	4	4	0
Loose Ball Get	14	22	-8
Contested Mark	0	3	-3
Ruck Hard Ball Get	1	0	+1
Gather From Hitout	2	1	+1
Contested Knock On	2	0	+2
Free For	0	4	-4
Total	23	34	-11
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	7	13	-6
Loose Ball Get	44	54	-10
Contested Mark	4	12	-8
Contested Knock On	3	3	0
Free For	10	8	+2
Total	68	90	-22
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	11	5	+6
Loose Ball Get	22	28	-6
Contested Mark	0	1	-1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	12	2	+10
Gather From Hitout	13	6	+7
Contested Knock On	2	1	+1
Free For	4	4	0
Total	64	47	+17

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	62.1	57	8%
Essendon	83.4	96	92%	+21.3	+39	+17.7

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	17	8.7 55	47.1%	61.1	−6.1	3.59	−0.36
Essendon	22	15.3 93	68.2%	81.4	+11.6	3.70	+0.53
General Play
Melbourne	9	2.6 18	22.2%	27.8	−9.8	3.09	−1.09
Essendon	8	5.1 31	62.5%	24.3	+6.7	3.04	+0.84
Set Position
Melbourne	8	6.1 37	75.0%	33.2	+3.8	4.15	+0.47
Essendon	14	10.2 62	71.4%	57.1	+4.9	4.08	+0.35

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

• +/-: total score above or below expected score.

• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	150	180	-30
2	169	169	0
3	186	183	+3
4	157	181	-24
Match	164	178	-14

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Clayton Oliver	29	70	53.4
Christian Petracca	22	53	32.8
Jack Viney	22	47	40.6
Kade Chandler	24	44	40.6
Caleb Windsor	19	38	27.3
Charlie Spargo	18	34	20.3
Jake Bowey	16	32	29.0
Trent Rivers	18	32	27.4
Ed Langdon	15	31	33.0
Harrison Petty	16	29	21.2
Bayley Fritsch	12	28	22.2
Kysaiah Pickett	14	25	37.0
Jake Melksham	11	23	19.0
Tom Sparrow	11	21	32.8
Jacob van Rooyen	10	17	21.0
Max Gawn	6	17	18.6
Christian Salem	11	16	24.0
Tom McDonald	8	16	19.4
Harvey Langford	7	14	17.2
Xavier Lindsay	8	12	30.0
Jack Henderson	8	11	25.2
Harry Sharp	4	8	18.4
Steven May	5	8	8.7

Source: Herald Sun

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	48%	50%	60%	50%	52%	50%
Defensive	52%	50%	40%	50%	48%	50%
Region
Forward 50	19%	23%	31%	19%	23%	23%
Attacking Midfield	28%	27%	29%	31%	29%	27%
Defensive Midfield	30%	27%	23%	31%	28%	25%
Defensive 50	22%	23%	17%	20%	20%	25%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	0.1 1	0.0 0	+1
Centre Bounce	0.1 1	2.0 12	-11
Stoppage (Other)	4.4 28	5.2 32	-4
Turnover	4.3 27	8.4 52	-25

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	1	3.0	0	5.2
Centre Bounce	1	10.2	12	18.8
Stoppage (Other)	28	18.0	32	24.4
Turnover	27	29.8	52	52.2

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Score Source	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	1	10.2	12	18.8
Kick-in	D50	1	3.0	0	5.2
Stoppage (Other)	D50	6	3.6	6	2.8
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	6	1.4	0	3.8
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	8	8.2	19	9.0
Stoppage (Other)	F50	8	4.8	7	8.8
Turnover	D50	0	3.4	1	9.6
Turnover	Centre	0	1.8	7	9.6
Turnover	Wing	21	19.8	37	23.4
Turnover	F50	6	4.8	7	9.6

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	7	10.0	7	17.6
Centre	7	13.4	19	32.2
Wing	29	28.0	56	32.4
F50	14	9.6	14	18.4

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	7	10.0	7	17.6
Defensive midfield	19	10.8	32	16.8
Centre bounce	1	10.2	12	18.8
Attacking midfield	16	20.4	31	29.0
Forward 50	14	9.6	14	18.4

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
26	20.8	39	34.4

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	22	85%	85.1%	85.0%
Clayton Oliver	19	73%	73.1%	70.7%
Christian Petracca	17	65%	59.0%	55.8%
Jack Viney	14	54%	63.4%	69.1%
Kysaiah Pickett	11	42%	50.0%	33.0%
Trent Rivers	8	31%	12.7%	29.9%
Harvey Langford	6	23%	35.9%
Jacob van Rooyen	4	15%	10.4%	17.8%
Tom Sparrow	2	8%	28.4%	37.7%
Jake Melksham	1	4%	1.3%	0.0%
Ed Langdon	0	0%	11.9%	0.7%
Kade Chandler	0	0%	5.2%	0.0%
Charlie Spargo	0	0%	0.0%	4.2%
Christian Salem	0	0%	0.0%	12.3%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	0.0%	7.5%
Aidan Johnson			10.9%
Daniel Turner			0.0%	0.3%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	99	80%	80.6%	81.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	24	20%	11.3%	17.6%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	0.0%	7.9%
Aidan Johnson			19.7%
Daniel Turner			1.2%	3.1%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2025)	To Adv. % (2024)
Max Gawn	99	49	11	30.6%	27.9%
Jacob van Rooyen	24	9	4	40.0%	24.7%
Harrison Petty	0	0	0		24.4%
Aidan Johnson				30.0%
Daniel Turner					50.4%

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Sam Draper	82	26	5
Harrison Jones	31	4	2
Nick Bryan	7	3	1
Nate Caddy	2	1	0

Four contested marks for the entire match is beyond putrid.

Post clearance ground ball and contested differential -38!

Contested marks -9

Only produced one quarter of AFL level pressure (Q3)

And this against a very ordinary oppo.

Completly unwatchable in all facets of the game excluding the odd quarter here and there.

If it was just a 4 to 5 week period you would sit back and just say we're in a slump.

But we are now into about 20 weeks of embarrassing levels of football now with no signs of a turn around.

Even if things got going for more than a quarter or so, we are incapable of kickkng a winning score, or even defending against pretty average oppos.

Edited April 12Apr 12 by Demon Dynasty

These are the facts

DEES 57. Bombers 96.

Tonight … 51 inside 50s - 8 goals. 15%. Horrendous.

Bombers - 43 inside 50s… 15 goals horrendous defending

16 centre clearances to 7 - score result 0.1

And

2025 so far 5 goals to 26 in 4th quarters . Horrendous

2025. Zero wins. 5 losses. 4 thrashings.

52 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Post clearance ground ball and contested differential -38!

Contested marks -9

Only produced one quarter of AFL level pressure (Q3)

And this against a very ordinary oppo.

Completly unwatchable in all facets of the game excluding the odd quarter here and there.

If it was just a 4 to 5 week period you would sit back and just say we're in a slump.

But we are now into about 20 weeks of embarrassing levels of football now with no signs of a turn around.

Even if things got going for more than a quarter or so, we are incapable of kickkng a winning score, or even defending against pretty average oppos.

Ground ball gets are included in contested possessions, but still very poor post-clearance numbers. Only had worse than -22 post-clearance twice since 2021 (-23 twice).

11 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Ground ball gets are included in contested possessions, but still very poor post-clearance numbers. Only had worse than -22 post-clearance twice since 2021 (-23 twice).

Fair enough.... thought the post clearance ground ball was 'loose ground ball gets' (ie; uncontested)

Thanks wheelo

12 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Fair enough.... thought the post clearance ground ball was 'loose ground ball gets' (ie; uncontested)

Thanks wheelo

No worries. Ground ball gets are loose and hard ball gets combined, but both are considered "contested". Although there's no physical pressure with loose ball gets, they're still counted as contested. If it's a directed ball from a teammate then it's a "gather" and uncontested (and not a loose ball get).

Our pathetic lack of pressure in the first and last quarters. The theme of this year.

Can’t or won’t?

We have ‘played’ 20 quarters of football this season.

Low goals scored in a quarter

0 goals - one time

1 goal- eight times

2 goals - five times

Some damning figures. We can go on about team selection, coaching, game plans and yadda yadda all we want, but if the players don't bring pressure and contest then it's all moot.

Perhaps the hard-at-it contest contest contest style that we've been hammering away at for years is taking its toll.

As I posted elsewhere, starting to feel that losing Gus Brayshaw has cut the heart out of the club.

150 pressure points for three quarters is diabolical. Effort is not there. They say they are trying but are they really trying?

180-190 is average and we played average for 1 quarter and that was good enough. Think about that - we just have to apply average pressure and we would have likely beaten. Teams are playing 2-3 quarters at 210+ what does that even look like for Melbourne?

Maybe we are just not fit enough. Explains the poor execution and defensive failures.

Edited April 13Apr 13 by GS_1905

Round 5, 2025 Adelaide Oval - Demons vs Bombers

Although a reasonable improvement on last week's Team Rating of 50.6 vs the Cats, this match was our second worst team performance to date (statistically speaking) in season 2025.

The Bombers had 18 players with less than 100 games vs our 9. The resulting performance (or lack thereof) indicating we appear to be a mile away from AFL levels / standards at this point with no sign that we are arresting this year's capitulation.

The Bombers now the third side we have played who have posted a Mega 70+ Team Rating this season, along with North in Rnd 2 & the Cats last week.

Langdon easily our best rated player, finishing a close 2nd just behind Draper on the night.

His 2nd best Rating since joining the Demons in 2020. His Best was Round 8, 2022 vs the Saints where he posted a 6.10

His output on the night included... 22 effective disposals at 88% efficiency (AFL average approx 74%), 2 marks i50, 2 one percenters, 3 clearances, 5 rebounds, 6 inside 50s, 1 tackle, 6 score involvements, 7 intercepts, only 1 turnover, 474 meters gained and a goal.

Our next best... Big Max and Clarry.

The main offenders who stunk it up in this match were...

Windsor -51% vs his 2024 Rating (foot issue impacting, did he also tweak it again on the night at one point?)

Viney -49%

Sparrow -48%

Spargo -41% (vs his 2023 Rating)

Van Rooyen -31%

Tracc -26%

Melky -23%

& T-Mac -17% (to be fair his first off week so far this season).

Six of the eight worst results coming from seasoned campaigners. No chance you are winning on the back of that many posting those sort of results.

Turnover Kings....

7 a piece by Tracc, Viney & Pickett. Spargo and Gawn 5 each and 4 each from Windsor, Langford, Bowey and Rivers.

Clarry lead the tackling front with 9. The next best, Chandler with 6.

No respite this week as we face the team that first cracked us open post the flag in Rnd 11, 2022.

Freo's form appears to be a mile ahead of ours and probably near the top of the tree, at least in terms of precise ball use and forward conversion.

They're also super effective by hand with the most meters gained (on average) with each handball, whereas we appear to go the old fashioned ring around the rosie. Inviting more and more pressure, resulting in our inevitable turnovers, which are prevalent, even when under not much pressure at all.

I would like to think we can clean this up somewhat (along with other skills and multiple aspects of our game) on the training track but we've had 4 weeks to do so to date with no progress at all. If anything we appear to be treading water.

Demons

< Subbed out TOG %

> Subbed in TOG %

Bombers

Combined Player Ratings

Edited April 13Apr 13 by Demon Dynasty

17 hours ago, roy11 said:

We have ‘played’ 20 quarters of football this season.

Low goals scored in a quarter

0 goals - one time

1 goal- eight times

2 goals - five times

We’ve also only won 4 quarters of football, all year.

4

There was a time a few years ago we won something like 15 consecutive quarters or something.

1-3 in first quarters, 0-4 in fourth quarters. Starting poorly, finishing worse.

5 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

We’ve also only won 4 quarters of football, all year.

4

There was a time a few years ago we won something like 15 consecutive quarters or something.

1-3 in first quarters, 0-4 in fourth quarters. Starting poorly, finishing worse.

We've had a poor starting record for many years now

Thanks DD our stats are deplorable such a big drop off for our bottom eight players, agree JV needs to be managed, Sparrow, JvR, Spargs, Henderson, Melksham ( sub), is Windsor still sore, if not get him back on the wing. Time for Disco, Jefferson or Fullarton to get a run, Pup Brown and Seston could not play worse.

2 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD our stats are deplorable such a big drop off for our bottom eight players, agree JV needs to be managed, Sparrow, JvR, Spargs, Henderson, Melksham ( sub), is Windsor still sore, if not get him back on the wing. Time for Disco, Jefferson or Fullarton to get a run, Pup Brown and Seston could not play worse.

It feels like we're in a bit of a closed loop now DZ. Spiraling out of control and unfortunately not in a good way.

The coach can't see the problem for the trees and appears to have backed the bulk of the premiership group and one very young and struggling potential KPF to get the job done, whatever that is, and just work harder on aspects of the game he feels we are deficient in.

There are no doubt many factors that have lead us to where we are now. Much of it in my opinion is by design. Not that anyone, including Simon or others within the FD, are wanting to ever see this sort of failure. Of course not.

But we have arrived at this point through the various decisions, directions, recruiting, training methods etc. Add to this our inability to address the obvious. Ie; that our forward line woes were and continue to be the elephant in the room and that this major under-performing aspect lead to much of our woes over a fairly extensive period.

This failure we are seeing did not happen overnight ie; just this season. The writing was on the wall even in some matches in 2023 and of course, plenty of others in 2024.

There was enough time for the forward conundrum to be addressed and corrected in the last two plus seasons imo. Aside from one year in 2021 when we managed to get BB, Kozzy & LJ all firing, it has since been the weak link in what used to be a super solid defence and a very strong mid field.

Unfortunately all good things, in this case our defence and mid-field, eventually also come to an end. Did we make enough hay while the sun shined!?? It's my personal view that we are now witnessing the fallout of what an across the board demise of all lines in the FD looks like on field. And as you would imagine, it ain't pretty!

Can Simon and the players correct this in the next few weeks and make a respectable fist of 2025? If Simon was more of a "thinking outside the square" & ruthless coach i think there would be hope. But from what we have seen / heard so far from Simon , it would appear that he will just keep going back to the same well in the hope that a miracle water will magically appear and somehow turn us back in to the 2021 beast that was.

Stranger things have happened in footy but i wouldn't want to wager much on it happening.

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 5, 2025 vs H&A Season 2024

* Played less than two full matches

< Subbed out at least once or more

> Subbed in at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Goodness! These numbers are damning!

7 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 5, 2025 vs H&A Season 2024

* Played less than two full matches

< Subbed out at least once or more

> Subbed in at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

You can’t polish a [censored]. But you can put it in a bag, light it and leave it at someones front door.

Oh Simon..

7 hours ago, Doug Reemer said:

You can’t polish a [censored]. But you can put it in a bag, light it and leave it at someones front door.

Oh Simon..

I'm thinking you might know my brother DR....him and a few mates did that to one of their not so nice high school teachers back in the day 😄

2 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

I'm thinking you might know my brother DR....him and a few mates did that to one of their not so nice high school teachers back in the day 😄

Did he grow up in Glen Waverley?