The Harry Armstrong Thread

[mo64 5,881]

3 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

He’d be a fantastic pick 9 and a perfectly fine pick at 5.

There’s way too much attachment to these midfielders.

I'm curious to know how many of these players have you seen live in action?

I take opinions on here with a grain of salt. 

Cal Twomey, who I have utmost respect for, was asked on Gettable who he thought was his certainties for a Top 10 selection. He listed the top 5 mids + Tauru. He then listed 5-6 players who are likely to be in the mix for a top 10 selection, and Harry Armstrong wasn't one of them.

I get the impression that he doesn't rate him as highly as some Demonlanders, although he expects a club like St. Kilda to take him based on needs rather than best available.

 

[DeeSpencer 26,266]

43 minutes ago, Young Blood said:

Cal Twomey pretty much always gets the top 6-8 players correct (not the exact order, just those picked in this range). You're not considering him an expert which is fine but his record speaks for itself. He certainly ranks the top 8 players in this years draft as mids. But I actually kind of agree that a few of the mids won't be as good as the two KP players picked in that mix. I think Armstrong and Tauru are certainly ahead of Reid who I think might slide (hoping saints pick him with one of their first picks).

October form guides:

2019: Jackson at 14, Pickett nowhere 

2023: Windsor at 11

2021: Mac Andrew at 9

Twomey is an amalgamator of experts drip fed knowledge. He’s got way too many journo responsibilities during the afl season to be a proper expert.

The best mids often identify themselves easily. The talls and special flankers are trickier to place. I think Tauru absolutely belongs towards the top and I’m warming to the idea Armstrong does too. 

[dazzledavey36 55,853]

4 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

He’d be a fantastic pick 9 and a perfectly fine pick at 5.

There’s way too much attachment to these midfielders.

So they should. Much better chance they succeed at AFL level then someone like a  Armstrong who will take about 6-7 years before they reach their full capacity and make some significant impact at AFL level.

Armstrong is Weideman all over.

[DeeSpencer 26,266]

9 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

So they should. Much better chance they succeed at AFL level then someone like a  Armstrong who will take about 6-7 years before they reach their full capacity and make some significant impact at AFL level.

Armstrong is Weideman all over.

Or he’s a Logan Morris a plays in a flag in year 1, or a Cal Dear and has a great first year. Or a forward line Luke Jackson and is a key part of a premiership year 2.

I get the doubts, but watch the tape, he moves completely differently to Weid.

Safety has never been a JT factor at the top of the draft. You don’t take Oliver over Parish or draft LJ if you want safety.

We also have the 2 picks. If Tauru goes to North and the Saints take at least one non mid we’re choosing the 4th best mid at 5 or the 6th best mid at 9. If they are all such good players then we’ll be fine doing that too!

[Dr. Mubutu 866]

1 minute ago, DeeSpencer said:

Safety has never been a JT factor at the top of the draft. You don’t take Oliver over Parish or draft LJ if you want safety.

It took me a little while to realise you were talking about Luke Jackson here.

Was about to say that LJ was well before JT's time - fairly sure he did have a chance, but chose against it

[Grr-owl 1,257]

On 26/10/2024 at 17:50, Dee Viney Intervention said:

Nothing against Armstrong but we have lost Brayshaw, Harmes, JJ, Dunstan etc and we replaced them with?????The midfield cupboard is bare at Casey. You can have JVR, Jefferson, Armstrong and Jesus Christ in our forward line but if we persist with slow ball movement and blindly bombing the ball into a congested forwardline I don’t care who you are, you are going to struggle to score. And we do. 
 I get where you are coming from it is a bit of what comes first the chicken or the egg. I think we need midfield depth with quality ball users. We have the personnel in our forward line to get the job done, however there is no doubt we need a better system down there or players having clearly defined roles and they need to be made accountable for playing their role. 

Jesus has a basketball background, apparently...

[Young Blood 2,639]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

October form guides:

2019: Jackson at 14, Pickett nowhere 

2023: Windsor at 11

2021: Mac Andrew at 9

Twomey is an amalgamator of experts drip fed knowledge. He’s got way too many journo responsibilities during the afl season to be a proper expert.

The best mids often identify themselves easily. The talls and special flankers are trickier to place. I think Tauru absolutely belongs towards the top and I’m warming to the idea Armstrong does too. 

haha I thought you would pick out the outliers!

I'll add one

2016 - Taranto at 8 (ended up pick 2)

Perhaps I should have worded this more carefully. Twomey *generally* gets it right and yes you're probably right he is drip fed info from the true experts as you say. Comparatively in other years a month out he got the top 6 right in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022. So you're right he's not the most accurate.

@DeeSpencer you seem to have a very firm understanding of this draft. I trust your judgement of Armstrong as someone who knows his game well. Were you able to get down to see him live? Would be keen to know how you thought he looked in person as opposed to the others on this thread just going off of youtube clips and Lloyds gushing over him in reports.

I went down to see two games of his this year for Sandy where he was pretty solid. In those games he played deeper and less involved. Would like to have seen him presenting further up the ground as its been reported. Could be a Jeremy Cameron type player with his elite agility which would be fantastic for us.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Young Blood

[dazzledavey36 55,853]

8 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Or he’s a Logan Morris a plays in a flag in year 1, or a Cal Dear and has a great first year. Or a forward line Luke Jackson and is a key part of a premiership year 2.

I get the doubts, but watch the tape, he moves completely differently to Weid.

Safety has never been a JT factor at the top of the draft. You don’t take Oliver over Parish or draft LJ if you want safety.

We also have the 2 picks. If Tauru goes to North and the Saints take at least one non mid we’re choosing the 4th best mid at 5 or the 6th best mid at 9. If they are all such good players then we’ll be fine doing that too!

It's not about safety, it's the fact that our midfield depth is a bigger need then forward. 

After Rivers who is 24 we have zero up and coming midfield talent coming through. Petracca, Oliver, Viney are all about to hit their 30's and then there is a significant drop.

Armstrong's no different to Weideman in his draft year. Too many double grab marks or dropped marks that forwards should eat up, 2nd efforts non existent and lackadaisical in his approach.

Riak Andrew, a rookie list propsect completely shut him down in a Coates game at the back end of the year and his poor body language and laziness was on show for everyone to see. Barely put up a fight.

[old55 23,833]

2 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

It's not about safety, it's the fact that our midfield depth is a bigger need then forward. 

After Rivers who is 24 we have zero up and coming midfield talent coming through. Petracca, Oliver, Viney are all about to hit their 30's and then there is a significant drop.

Armstrong's no different to Weideman in his draft year. Too many double grab marks or dropped marks that forwards should eat up, 2nd efforts non existent and lackadaisical in his approach.

Riak Andrew, a rookie list propsect completely shut him down in a Coates game at the back end of the year and his poor body language and laziness was on show for everyone to see. Barely put up a fight.

So we should be drafting for need at 5 and 9?

[Nascent 9,320]

I'll have to disagree slightly on dazz re Armstrong. He's far more athletic and agile than Weideman and better when the ball hits the deck. Would say his leading patterns are much better as well. His one wood is marking on the lead which he gets from good acceleration allowing him to get separation from his opponent. Agree contested marking isn't the strongest part of his game but he's capable and took some good ones in the game vs country.

Riak Andrew also smashed Shanahan late in the year, has claimed a number of scalps this season.

Not using this for an argument for selecting him, though I do see some merit in acquiring a key positon player this draft.

[Tarax Club 4,092]

17 hours ago, Nascent said:

I'm warming to the idea of Armstrong.

 

It’s decidedly warm up here…

Harry Armstrong

l’ve got it now…

 

[FreedFromDesire 942]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

I'm curious to know how many of these players have you seen live in action?

I take opinions on here with a grain of salt. 

Cal Twomey, who I have utmost respect for, was asked on Gettable who he thought was his certainties for a Top 10 selection. He listed the top 5 mids + Tauru. He then listed 5-6 players who are likely to be in the mix for a top 10 selection, and Harry Armstrong wasn't one of them.

I get the impression that he doesn't rate him as highly as some Demonlanders, although he expects a club like St. Kilda to take him based on needs rather than best available.

 

Twomey also had Armstrong going at 10 in his September ratings and 9 in his October ratings.

[Adam The God 30,602]

Hope we go Riak Andrew 👌😜

[Colm 2,189]

34 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

It's not about safety, it's the fact that our midfield depth is a bigger need then forward. 

After Rivers who is 24 we have zero up and coming midfield talent coming through. Petracca, Oliver, Viney are all about to hit their 30's and then there is a significant drop.

Armstrong's no different to Weideman in his draft year. Too many double grab marks or dropped marks that forwards should eat up, 2nd efforts non existent and lackadaisical in his approach.

Riak Andrew, a rookie list propsect completely shut him down in a Coates game at the back end of the year and his poor body language and laziness was on show for everyone to see. Barely put up a fight.

 

12 minutes ago, Nascent said:

I'll have to disagree slightly on dazz re Armstrong. He's far more athletic and agile than Weideman and better when the ball hits the deck. Would say his leading patterns are much better as well. His one wood is marking on the lead which he gets from good acceleration allowing him to get separation from his opponent. Agree contested marking isn't the strongest part of his game but he's capable and took some good ones in the game vs country.

Riak Andrew also smashed Shanahan late in the year, has claimed a number of scalps this season.

Not using this for an argument for selecting him, though I do see some merit in acquiring a key positon player this draft.

Ok I’m sold- let’s sign up Riak

[rpfc 28,894]

On 29/10/2024 at 10:04, Axis of Bob said:

The more straightforward thing to read from our interest in Derksen is that we are still looking at adding key forwards to our list. That’s likely to mean that the Demonland consensus of ‘draft midfielders at any cost’ is not shared by the club.

Even more straightforward a read is the club is investing time in mature age recruitment of key forwards. So I don’t know if the last bit about the draft is extrapolation.

[FreedFromDesire 942]

We've apparently very much cooled on Armstrong after interviews. Unlikely to take him now.

Jagga still the favourite with Lalor and Langford also around the mark in terms of who the club likes. Reid and Tauru also being considered. Still a chance Melbourne split pick 9, but I get the impression it depends who is left on the board on the night. This is all rumour as it stands, and these things can change rapidly as it is, so if someone like goodwindees or DannyZ post otherwise then I would rely on their information more.

[picket fence 17,964]

JUST NOOO!

[mo64 5,881]

5 hours ago, FreedFromDesire said:

We've apparently very much cooled on Armstrong after interviews. Unlikely to take him now.

Jagga still the favourite with Lalor and Langford also around the mark in terms of who the club likes. Reid and Tauru also being considered. Still a chance Melbourne split pick 9, but I get the impression it depends who is left on the board on the night. This is all rumour as it stands, and these things can change rapidly as it is, so if someone like goodwindees or DannyZ post otherwise then I would rely on their information more.

Why in the world would we split pick 9? At best it will get us a pick in the early teens and another in the early 20's.

We gave up our future 1st (potentially a top 5 pick next year) plus a raft of 2nd and 3rd picks. Those bundled picks could have netted us a result that is not dissimilar to splitting pick 9.

Over the past two trade periods, we've been a benevolent club to the Suns and the Bombers.

[Mouseymoo 368]

7 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Why in the world would we split pick 9? At best it will get us a pick in the early teens and another in the early 20's.

We gave up our future 1st (potentially a top 5 pick next year) plus a raft of 2nd and 3rd picks. Those bundled picks could have netted us a result that is not dissimilar to splitting pick 9.

Over the past two trade periods, we've been a benevolent club to the Suns and the Bombers.

We'd split it if the player(s) we like would be available at the pick we're trading for and acquire the freebie on top. 

It's not rocket science. We're not doing a trade for the sake of it. 

[FreedFromDesire 942]

8 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Why in the world would we split pick 9? At best it will get us a pick in the early teens and another in the early 20's.

We gave up our future 1st (potentially a top 5 pick next year) plus a raft of 2nd and 3rd picks. Those bundled picks could have netted us a result that is not dissimilar to splitting pick 9.

Over the past two trade periods, we've been a benevolent club to the Suns and the Bombers.

I think it will depend on how the night plays out, that's my guess anyway. I don't follow the draft very closely, but it seems like perhaps the range from about 6-15 is reasonably even and there's no absolute lock in terms of consensus? Others who know more would be more clear on that than I. So for example, if we were to split with someone like Port Adelaide, we could potentially still get the player we wanted with pick 13 (or however far back it goes) and then pick up a 'bonus' pick 29 to go with it. That would be pretty smart dealing IF it was looking like a possibility on the night I think.

[Adam The God 30,602]

40 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Why in the world would we split pick 9? At best it will get us a pick in the early teens and another in the early 20's.

We gave up our future 1st (potentially a top 5 pick next year) plus a raft of 2nd and 3rd picks. Those bundled picks could have netted us a result that is not dissimilar to splitting pick 9.

Over the past two trade periods, we've been a benevolent club to the Suns and the Bombers.

If we split our pick 9 for 15 and 16, it gets us two late first rounders...

That's why we'd do it. Say, Hotton and Hynes.

[58er 6,809]

On 30/10/2024 at 15:53, DeeSpencer said:

October form guides:

2019: Jackson at 14, Pickett nowhere 

2023: Windsor at 11

2021: Mac Andrew at 9

Twomey is an amalgamator of experts drip fed knowledge. He’s got way too many journo responsibilities during the afl season to be a proper expert.

The best mids often identify themselves easily. The talls and special flankers are trickier to place. I think Tauru absolutely belongs towards the top and I’m warming to the idea Armstrong does too. 

IMO you both are underestimating the way Cal goes about his work. His knowledge of the players background and his skills are from two big sources. Club and sporting background and  meeting and seeing virtually all the top medium and bottom  rated players ( therefore he sees the whole lot ) and with personal contact plus his shoe Gettable he does have a big opportunity to judge the total package of the draft. So does Riley Beverage and there discussions even between themselves would be fly on the wall stuff. 

And there is no reason why at pick 20 or more very good players are not available. This opinion has not hurt started and been on Cals enthusiasm to create interest or dramatise the 2024 Draft coverage.

Another person like Kevin Sheehan is an expert in this field also and is d add plays included in the draft TV coverage for that reason.

Just because you are either not convinced or are lacking in knowledge or opinion of some players doesn’t break down a substantial opinion on this draft.

One reason you are not like minded is that Cal vary rarely points out negatives like you do which virtually decides  that they are not for choosing in your opinion. Too much baggage or does this wrong. At 18 years those boys ( not men) are able to develop from these beginnings at the Clubs whose  culture and football development along with individual aims and goals to improve make a star or champion or not. Thats what the draft is all about and a Tauru or Reid are both a chance to have a career of 250 games in the AFL system.

our own Judd McVee is a classic example of how individual determination has with being a sponge plus ding extra training off season can become a very valuable player in the AFL.

What does it matter to you that there are good prospects at 30 this year over say last year in the dragster less so? 
It’s at the start of a journey and there appears more saleable cars in the car yard this draft.

Good luck you still need to pick well for your Club and who knows at 83 we might pick up a gem with JT if he feels he’s worth it. Don’t shudder because he’s 18 usually and has some years of development available to make it. Not be an instant household name to shine in Round1  perhaps in his 50th game.

[DeeSpencer 26,266]

12 minutes ago, 58er said:

IMO you both are underestimating the way Cal goes about his work. His knowledge of the players background and his skills are from two big sources. Club and sporting background and  meeting and seeing virtually all the top medium and bottom  rated players ( therefore he sees the whole lot ) and with personal contact plus his shoe Gettable he does have a big opportunity to judge the total package of the draft. So does Riley Beverage and there discussions even between themselves would be fly on the wall stuff. 

And there is no reason why at pick 20 or more very good players are not available. This opinion has not hurt started and been on Cals enthusiasm to create interest or dramatise the 2024 Draft coverage.

Another person like Kevin Sheehan is an expert in this field also and is d add plays included in the draft TV coverage for that reason.

Just because you are either not convinced or are lacking in knowledge or opinion of some players doesn’t break down a substantial opinion on this draft.

One reason you are not like minded is that Cal vary rarely points out negatives like you do which virtually decides  that they are not for choosing in your opinion. Too much baggage or does this wrong. At 18 years those boys ( not men) are able to develop from these beginnings at the Clubs whose  culture and football development along with individual aims and goals to improve make a star or champion or not. Thats what the draft is all about and a Tauru or Reid are both a chance to have a career of 250 games in the AFL system.

our own Judd McVee is a classic example of how individual determination has with being a sponge plus ding extra training off season can become a very valuable player in the AFL.

What does it matter to you that there are good prospects at 30 this year over say last year in the dragster less so? 
It’s at the start of a journey and there appears more saleable cars in the car yard this draft.

Good luck you still need to pick well for your Club and who knows at 83 we might pick up a gem with JT if he feels he’s worth it. Don’t shudder because he’s 18 usually and has some years of development available to make it. Not be an instant household name to shine in Round1  perhaps in his 50th game.

Can I have this again in English?

[picket fence 17,964]

On 27/10/2024 at 16:11, FreedFromDesire said:

I like Jefferson and think he came a long way this year, but he's always been a longer term project - From what I can tell, if we drafted Armstrong he would already be ahead of Jefferson in terms of being ready to play. Pick the best available, regardless of position - not only is that when we've done our best drafting, but it's also reflective of a team that finished 14th this year.

Armstrong doesn't exactly startle me from his highlights, at pick 9???? NO THANKS

[58er 6,809]

18 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Can I have this again in English?

Smart …. Just put your brain to use please. 

You know what I am saying

You are afraid I am correct and scared of the truth. 

Or get to work and improve your understanding of the depth in the 2025 draft.