The Harry Armstrong Thread

[HarpenDee 249]

Agreed Frothies. Our interest in Derk / his determination to get home should still be there next year and will cost us nothing

Also agree with some posters above, not sure why we eould be determined to create potential mids out of Rivers/McVee when we have picks 5 and 9 in a draft that is perfect for potential mids. 

Pick 5/ pick 9/ Windsor/ Kolt coming through as a midfield group together underneath Trac/Oliver/Viney is the obvious play. Let's not try and be too cute.

[DeeSpencer 25,767]

8 hours ago, HarpenDee said:

Agreed Frothies. Our interest in Derk / his determination to get home should still be there next year and will cost us nothing

Also agree with some posters above, not sure why we eould be determined to create potential mids out of Rivers/McVee when we have picks 5 and 9 in a draft that is perfect for potential mids. 

Pick 5/ pick 9/ Windsor/ Kolt coming through as a midfield group together underneath Trac/Oliver/Viney is the obvious play. Let's not try and be too cute.

You don’t make list management decisions based on having Wade Derksen. You certainly don’t make them when you don’t even have him. 

That would be like choosing where to go for a fancy dinner based on possibly having some 2 minute noodles in the cupboard.

Rivers is a mid now. Look at his B+F voting post midfield move. He’s ready for it.

Theres some decent mids at the top of the draft but we have needs everywhere. No point adding Darcy Parish and Elijah Tsatas if there’s better players in other roles.

[Axis of Bob 11,836]

9 hours ago, HarpenDee said:

Our interest in Derk / his determination to get home should still be there next year and will cost us nothing

The more straightforward thing to read from our interest in Derksen is that we are still looking at adding key forwards to our list. That’s likely to mean that the Demonland consensus of ‘draft midfielders at any cost’ is not shared by the club.

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

36 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

The more straightforward thing to read from our interest in Derksen is that we are still looking at adding key forwards to our list. That’s likely to mean that the Demonland consensus of ‘draft midfielders at any cost’ is not shared by the club.

I thought he showed he can play back as well?  If so that adds flexibility because it's unclear where Petty / Disco will end up - largely based on how Jeffo and Adams come on.

[Axis of Bob 11,836]

9 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

I thought he showed he can play back as well?  If so that adds flexibility because it's unclear where Petty / Disco will end up - largely based on how Jeffo and Adams come on.

He's done both, although my understanding is that we wanted to play him forward (I can't remember where I heard that from, though). Either way, I think having two of our current key forwards (Petty and Turner) being converted defenders probably indicates our desire for key forwards too. Plus picking Kentfield in the mid-season draft. 

Last season we were missing two of the league's top 5 midfielders, and we obviously struggled there as a result. We also were missing none of our best key forwards, and we still only had Van Rooyen and then a couple of converted defenders. Oliver and Petracca, of all the noise, are on long term deals. The key forward cupboard, even without injuries, has Van Rooyen, Jefferson (0 games), Fullarton (0 games) and Kentfield (0 games) in it. In the past few years we've lost Brown, McDonald and Jackson from that premiership forward line and replaced them with Van Rooyen and magic beans. More key forwards is still something we need to add to the list. 

[58er 6,461]

On 27/10/2024 at 17:33, picket fence said:

Yep and either Lindsay or Reid for me!

Not if we pick him or Tauru whoever is available at 5 first which could happen. A good/ great mid will still be available at 9 if two forwards are chosen in the first 8!  Allan Lindsay Smillie Hotton Reid Travaglia may all be available. Happy Days IMO a gun forward duo that  most have agreed both tick the box or about 6/7 still top15 prospects full of mids to choose whatever suits you best. Langford at 9 would be a dream that  probably won’t come true but you can always hope. 
Go get’’em JT Two ready made stars ( or almost). 

[58er 6,461]

2 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

You don’t make list management decisions based on having Wade Derksen. You certainly don’t make them when you don’t even have him. 

That would be like choosing where to go for a fancy dinner based on possibly having some 2 minute noodles in the cupboard.

Rivers is a mid now. Look at his B+F voting post midfield move. He’s ready for it.

Theres some decent mids at the top of the draft but we have needs everywhere. No point adding Darcy Parish and Elijah Tsatas if there’s better players in other roles.

Exactly what are the “ needs every where Dee? “

Rucks 1 and 2 fine and 1 backup in VFL that hopefully can fast track 

Defenders  plenty of flankers available from Salem to AMW who I think you canned for fitness after one quarter??? 
KPbacks need Adams to get a move on and Maysie for a good full season injury free certainly not ribs. Hard not to see either Petty or Turner to spend a stint in defence during the season. Or during some games perhaps. But that is versatility that we have so any needs can be addressed immediately in quarter or for the next few weeks. 

Mids

Depends upon how you look Half glass FULL or empty. 
I am going full for good if not great seasons from Trac and Clarry Jack not getting injured and Rivers bring nearly full time on the ball and hopefully a more busy Sparrow who might start getting the first worms for a  change. McVee plus Kossie for cameos up to 7:8 a match. And Sharp and Pup Brown for badly needed pace and youth. I mid top 10 draft also included as near ready made. 

Centreline

Switch Windsor to the centre for greater connectivity and goals scored than on a wing. 
Langdon Bowey  Sharp AMW could be on opposite side to Lingers 

Forwards  

KPF JVR Petty Disco  Fullarton Kentfield Armstrong/ Tauru ?  Gawn and Petracca bonuses

mid group Fritta Melky Howes ( try him upforward if isn’t in half back position ) 

smalls  Kossie Chandler McAdam Sharp AMW Spargo Petracca Sparrow Clarry Viney Windsor 

Interchange Those  that don’t make it above in 23. Sub rule looks unchanged. Send Goodwin to a lecture on all possibilities that you can use and selection  C tree also. 

Game Plan also needs firing up for more pace intensity and positivity. 

With new Assistants Coaches  flexibility and ideas should be changes made to our game plan also. Take the game on through the corridor more through the Duke and be ready to go forward in the GHz 

Over to you Dee most players can lift from average seasons in 2024 to better some considerably others 1%ers and a third category availability.

[DeeSpencer 25,767]

3 hours ago, 58er said:

Exactly what are the “ needs every where Dee?

FB: Disco  Petty ???
HB: Bowey ???  McVee
C: Windsor Rivers ????
HF: Chandler ????  ????
FF: Pickett JVR ????
Foll: ???? ???? Kolt
Int: Sparrow, Spargo ???? ????

Maybe: Jeffo, Howes, Sharp, Woey etc
 

To me, that’s the team we are drafting for. No doubt we hope Gawn, Viney, May, Lever, Tracc, Oliver, Salem, Langdon can all play on at a high level for years to come, but we are trying to fill gaps in our best 22, we’re trying to create the next wave.

[mo64 5,875]

There's a vast difference between acquiring a player like Derksen with pick 999, and spending a top 10 pick on a KPF. We may perceive Derksen as playing the role that we thought Fullarton would play.

Our inability to acquire him should have no bearing on our draft plans. A new KPF isn't going to make an impact for 2-3 years, whereas Derksen should be physically capable.

[WERRIDEE 5,479]

I'm going on the phantom form guide so ATM we are taking Reid with pick 5 and Armstrong with pick 9.

B: Lever, May, McVee

HB: Salem, McDonald, Rivers

C: Windsor, Petracca, Langdon

HF: Pickett, Petty, Chandler

F: Fritsch, van Rooyen, Turner

FOLL: Gawn, Oliver, Viney

IC: Howes, Sparrow, Sharp, Melksham, Reid

Casey

B: Hore, Adams, Moniz-Wakefield

HB: Bowey, Fullerton, Woewodin

C: Billings, Laurie, Brown

HF: Spargo, Armstrong, Sestan

F: McAdam, Jefferson, Kentfield

FOLL: Campbell, Tholstrup, pick 83

IC: Verrall, Yze, Mentha

 

[Wizard of Koz 1,111]

On 26/10/2024 at 16:07, don cordner said:

Huh?

David Cordner took great grabs. I liked him,

[Nascent 9,241]

I'm warming to the idea of Armstrong.

[don cordner 204]

22 minutes ago, Wizard of Koz said:

David Cordner took great grabs. I liked him,

Haha, David Cordner is my second cousin, word was he didn’t get the opportunity he deserved due to politics at the club at the time

[58er 6,461]

14 hours ago, mo64 said:

There's a vast difference between acquiring a player like Derksen with pick 999, and spending a top 10 pick on a KPF. We may perceive Derksen as playing the role that we thought Fullarton would play.

Our inability to acquire him should have no bearing on our draft plans. A new KPF isn't going to make an impact for 2-3 years, whereas Derksen should be physically capable.

Really it should as if we had got Derksen may be a KPF like Armstrong or Tauru could have been shelved and two mids concentrated on. I believe we need another tall and versatile if possible. Tauru with his marking and X factor is IMO a no brainer as a future star and just the excitement machine with Windsor and possibly Kolstrup to add much needed flair and youth enthusiasm to our list.  Our mid should be a skilled runner rather than a bull. 
Not all KPP ‘s take 2 years but if so then so be it.  Our existing ones are a year older and ready to go more than ever. 

 

[DeeSpencer 25,767]

Goal kicking: 7/10 don’t entirely love the technique but he has a routine and keeps it straight. Very side on and has moments when he loses distance, he might get the yips if it breaks down at times but generally reliable 

Marking: 5/10 elevates comfortably, drops more than he should but takes some nice ones too

Presenting: 7/10 - does some high level stuff with seeking out the defender and protecting space. Not an innate skill for many young talls. Some nice leads too. 

Contesting: 6/10 - he’s not a pack crasher but he does fly for his marks and get hands on the footy. I think wanting bash and crash key forwards at 18 years old has been something our recruiters have overvalued.

Athleticism: undisclosed/10: can’t find a 2km or 20m sprint. Incredible agility result and that comes through in his play. Really good at ground level inside 50.

I can see the doubters saying his very similar to Jeffo but I think he has better mobility and a naturally bigger frame. Doesn’t clunk marks to the same level but he’s got similar traits to Petty (with a natural forwards mindset). There’d be an obvious appeal to have him take over from Petty by as soon as 2026. 

[Nascent 9,241]

"There’s an outside chance Melbourne (Pick 5) takes him with its first selection, although the sense is the Dees will more likely target a midfielder at that pick. It’s most likely Armstrong, at this stage, goes to Richmond (Pick 6), St Kilda (Picks 7 and 8) or Melbourne (Pick 9)."

From today's foxsports power ranking article

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/draft/fox-footy-afl-draft-power-rankings-2024-top-50-afl-draft-news-2024-prospects-predictions-final-power-rankings/news-story/3e3909b5ec637e92aeeae8ce440315a6

 

 

[Dee Viney Intervention 1,945]

50 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Goal kicking: 7/10 don’t entirely love the technique but he has a routine and keeps it straight. Very side on and has moments when he loses distance, he might get the yips if it breaks down at times but generally reliable 

Marking: 5/10 elevates comfortably, drops more than he should but takes some nice ones too

Presenting: 7/10 - does some high level stuff with seeking out the defender and protecting space. Not an innate skill for many young talls. Some nice leads too. 

Contesting: 6/10 - he’s not a pack crasher but he does fly for his marks and get hands on the footy. I think wanting bash and crash key forwards at 18 years old has been something our recruiters have overvalued.

Athleticism: undisclosed/10: can’t find a 2km or 20m sprint. Incredible agility result and that comes through in his play. Really good at ground level inside 50.

I can see the doubters saying his very similar to Jeffo but I think he has better mobility and a naturally bigger frame. Doesn’t clunk marks to the same level but he’s got similar traits to Petty (with a natural forwards mindset). There’d be an obvious appeal to have him take over from Petty by as soon as 2026. 

So essentially no traits that demand “must pick “ in the top 10. If we pick him with 5 or 9 I expect a meltdown on Demonland that would make Lidia Thorpe blush. 

[DeeSpencer 25,767]

2 minutes ago, Dee Viney Intervention said:

So essentially no traits that demand “must pick “ in the top 10. If we pick him with 5 or 9 I expect a meltdown on Demonland that would make Lidia Thorpe blush. 

He’d be a fantastic pick 9 and a perfectly fine pick at 5.

There’s way too much attachment to these midfielders.

[Dee Boys 641]

42 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

He’d be a fantastic pick 9 and a perfectly fine pick at 5.

There’s way too much attachment to these midfielders.

According to you. But not according to any experts.

[spirit of norm smith 16,481]

Daniher was great in the finals but ultimately it’s the midfield that wins it.  Lions had Ashcroft, Neale, McCluggage and Berry. Now they top up with Ashcroft mark 2 as well.  
Dees need to identify this year as the need to upgrade the midfield.  It’s obvious.   

Armstrong is good. He can mark , kick it and kick goals.  But he’s not elite.  I’m happy for Tigers or Saints to grab him.
 

We need mids to compete now and the future.  JV7, Trac and Clarry together with the new wave of Windsor, Throlstrup and 5 + 9 is the answer.  

[old55 23,626]

37 minutes ago, Dee Boys said:

According to you. But not according to any experts.

Cal Twomey has Armstrong at 10 in his October form guide and Ashcroft at one which places Armstrong as 9th best available player.

[Dee Boys 641]

36 minutes ago, old55 said:

Cal Twomey has Armstrong at 10 in his October form guide and Ashcroft at one which places Armstrong as 9th best available player.

Was responding to his second sentence.

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

Obviously we have no real idea - if we pick him then obviously JT sees something in him that others (including me) are not.

I would hope we are not picking on needs with 5 or 9 - we have enough gaps in the list that we should (surely) be going best available.  

I'd much rather go best midfielder at 5 and then unless we are set on someone special at 9 that will be next picked (eg Tauru is still there) then split it and get 2 more players in the top 20-30.  We could then get a KPP (Shanahan?) and add some class / speed.  The draft quality seems far deeper and more even than usual.  I think there's been more players touted as a top 10 pick than ever before - we might be able to snar 3 of JT's top 10-15 in the draft!

[DeeSpencer 25,767]

2 hours ago, Dee Boys said:

According to you. But not according to any experts.

The only experts are the clubs who draft players in a few weeks time.

There’s a few big time prospects right at the top but I feel very confident there’s not 6-8 must draft mids.

[Young Blood 2,632]

57 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The only experts are the clubs who draft players in a few weeks time.

There’s a few big time prospects right at the top but I feel very confident there’s not 6-8 must draft mids.

Cal Twomey pretty much always gets the top 6-8 players correct (not the exact order, just those picked in this range). You're not considering him an expert which is fine but his record speaks for itself. He certainly ranks the top 8 players in this years draft as mids.

But I actually kind of agree that a few of the mids won't be as good as the two KP players picked in that mix. I think Armstrong and Tauru are certainly ahead of Reid who I think should slide into the teens (hoping saints pick him with one of their first picks so he's out of the way). Also possibly ahead of Smillie as well whose work rate I have concerns about. The other 6 best mids though I think should be who we're picking from with our pick 5. 

Will be very happy with Armstrong, Tauru or Travaglia with that pick 9 as I don't see any of those top 6-7 mids sliding to our pick 9 anyway.

Edited October 30 by Young Blood