On 23/10/2024 at 10:34, Nascent said:

It's usually a couple of days or the night before the draft unfortunately.

Once he hears from families of the players and /or clubs who they are going to… calculating Cal doesn’t like to stick his neck out too far

Edited October 24, 2024Oct 24 by The Jackson FIX

Don't settle for good, in deference to chasing great!!!!!

Think Oliver v Parish!

We should be looking for champions with these picks while they are available, as not all drafts have them, or easy/obvious access to them. For instance look at 2016 draft.

 

Edited October 24, 2024Oct 24 by Ungarieboy

24 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes that would be a tough call … perhaps … Smillie 😊😊😊😊😊

Didn’t stand up in the champs. Given our recent finals history I want someone who is more likely to stand up in the big games. 

7 minutes ago, Colm said:

Didn’t stand up in the champs. Given our recent finals history I want someone who is more likely to stand up in the big games. 

Given the Tigers might like to grab Jagga Smith, if he was available at our pick, it would be worth a cheeky quick call to them to ask Tigers to see if they’d be interested in a swap of MFC 5 for their 6 and 24… but if the choice was between Smith and Tauru, I’d take Smith. 

 

Edited October 24, 2024Oct 24 by spirit of norm smith
O

23 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Given the Tigers might like to grab Jagga Smith, if he was available at our pick, it would be worth a cheeky quick call to them to ask Tigers to see if they’d be interested in a swap of MFC 5 for their 6 and 24… but if the choice was between Smith and Tauru, I’d take Smith. 

 

Cheers, he looks a bit better by foot in those highlights than I thought he was. 
Pick 5 is such a good pick we really can’t lose. 
That 40 point loss to the filth in the last round was the difference between 5th& 8th. Sucked at the time but massive for us now. 

After seeing those highlights Smith would be a great choice. Looks like a safe choice as well.

4 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

Why do people want to trade any of our two picks for later picks?

I'd rather take two top 10 picks in this draft than 3 in the top 20, pick 5 you normally hope one you like slips, this year one you like will def be there at 5, and more than likely the same for 9.

I wouldn't be changing either picks at all.

That's fair and the most likely outcome.

I think a number of us who have focused on the draft since the end of the season are happy with the top picks but also wishing we had another pick around the 20s. 

Pushing pick 9 back a few places wouldn't be bad if we were still getting our target (similar to the Pickett situation).

4 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

Why do people want to trade any of our two picks for later picks?

I'd rather take two top 10 picks in this draft than 3 in the top 20, pick 5 you normally hope one you like slips, this year one you like will def be there at 5, and more than likely the same for 9.

I wouldn't be changing either picks at all.

Guess it comes down to

A) 2x Excellent players and a stab in the dark in the 60s

5, 9, 60

or

B) 3x excellent players inside the top 20

5, 11, 20

Now that maybe fantasy land to get scenario B to happen but we could get something close to that.

This draft is deep and even in the first two rounds. With some intel on other clubs plans, we could potentially target players by safely trading down like we did in the Pickett/Rivers draft.

If not possible, we hold 5 and 9.

Edited October 24, 2024Oct 24 by Nascent

1 hour ago, Colm said:

If North take FOS instead of Tauru it may mean that Langford is gone by our pick. 
Who would you choose between Smith and Tauru at pick 5?

Tauru absolutely. Match winner in the waiting 

49 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Guess it comes down to

A) 2x Excellent players and a stab in the dark in the 60s

5, 9, 60

or

B) 3x excellent players inside the top 20

5, 11, 20

Now that maybe fantasy land to get scenario B to happen but we could get something close to that.

This draft is deep and even in the first two rounds. With some intel on other clubs plans, we could potentially target players by safely trading down like we did in the Pickett/Rivers draft.

If not possible, we hold 5 and 9.

I prefer option A, I want two of the absolute best, not 1 and one a little further back and another at 20 who is 11 players removed from what would be our 9. 

But that's just me. And I will say I don't follow the U18 comp as much as others so option B might be just as good, but I'd prefer the 2 cherries instead of hitting the cream. :)

25 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

I prefer option A, I want two of the absolute best, not 1 and one a little further back and another at 20 who is 11 players removed from what would be our 9. 

But that's just me. And I will say I don't follow the U18 comp as much as others so option B might be just as good, but I'd prefer the 2 cherries instead of hitting the cream. :)

That's fair enough, I guess the real question for mine is can we get the same player we want at 9 a few spots back and improve our 3rd pick by 40 odd spots.

2 hours ago, Ungarieboy said:

Don't settle for good, in deference to chasing great!!!!!

Think Oliver v Parish!

We should be looking for champions with these picks while they are available, as not all drafts have them, or easy/obvious access to them. For instance look at 2016 draft.

 

Try to draft the best players possible? Let's hope Jason Taylor's reading!

1 hour ago, Nascent said:

Guess it comes down to

A) 2x Excellent players and a stab in the dark in the 60s

5, 9, 60

or

B) 3x excellent players inside the top 20

5, 11, 20

Now that maybe fantasy land to get scenario B to happen but we could get something close to that.

This draft is deep and even in the first two rounds. With some intel on other clubs plans, we could potentially target players by safely trading down like we did in the Pickett/Rivers draft.

If not possible, we hold 5 and 9.

Option C which has been posted is to trade up 5 to get access to the very top end.

9 to GWS for 15 and 16

5 and 16 to North for 2 (better than Richmond are likely to offer)

2 and 15 in the draft.

39 minutes ago, Nascent said:

That's fair enough, I guess the real question for mine is can we get the same player we want at 9 a few spots back and improve our 3rd pick by 40 odd spots.

Always a risk but sometimes worth taking if you know the team takin 9 and 10 don't want that player.

2 hours ago, 58er said:

Tauru absolutely. Match winner in the waiting 

Yeah I’d love if by some miracle we landed Langford and Tauru. Won’t happen but would be best possible result for us. 
Loved Tauru’s interview on Gettable this week, came across very well. Very confident in his abilities but not arrogant at all. 
If JT thinks he’s good enough at pick 5 I’d be more than happy with him. 

58 minutes ago, old55 said:

Option C which has been posted is to trade up 5 to get access to the very top end.

9 to GWS for 15 and 16

5 and 16 to North for 2 (better than Richmond are likely to offer)

2 and 15 in the draft.

I like this idea, i feel though that we will probably get a similar talent at 5 compared to 2. 

3 bites of the cherry in 5, 15, 16 could net us a package like, Langford/Smith  plus 2 of Lindsay/Hynes/Shanahan/Hotton

5 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Best guesses and estimates imv.  
I have the Dees holding at picks 5 & 9.  There’s likely to be some pick swaps throughout but the first round predictions as is are: 

1. Richmond. Sam Lalor. GWV
2.****Lions father son. Levi Ashcroft. Sandringham 
3. North Melbourne. Alix Tauru. Gippsland 
4. Carlton (via West Coast). Finn O’Sullivan . Oakleigh
5. Adelaide. Sid Draper. SA Sth Adelaide
6. Melbourne . Harvey Langford. Dandenong. 
7. Richmond (via Gold Coast). Jagga Smith. Oakleigh.  
8. ****Suns academy. Leonardo Lombard
9. St Kilda. Josh Smillie. Eastern
10. St Kilda (via Josh Battle compensation pick). Harry Armstrong . Sandringham 
11. Melbourne (via Essendon). Xavier Lindsay. Gippsland 
12. Richmond (via Fremantle) Tobie Travaglia. Bendigo 
13.Richmond (via Fremantle, Collingwood)  Luke Trainor. Sandringham 
14. West Coast (via Carlton) Bo Allan. WA Peel.
15. **** Ess NGA. Isaac Kako. Calder
16.  Port Adelaide (via Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs).  Joe Berry. Murray 
17. Fremantle (via Richmond, Hawthorn, Carlton).  Taj Hotton. Sandringham 
18. Greater Western Sydney. Jobe Shanahan. Bendigo
19. Greater Western Sydney (via Harry Perryman compensation pick). Murphy Reid. Sandringham 
20. Western Bulldogs (via Geelong). Cooper Hynes . Dandenong
21. **** Lions academy. Sam Marshall 
22. Richmond (via Fremantle, Port Adelaide). Jack Whitlock. Murray .
23.****Blues father son. Ben Camporeale. SA. 
24. Sydney. Harrison Oliver. Sandringham 
25. Richmond (via Brisbane). Alex Dodson. SA Sturt
26. Greater Western Sydney (via Isaac Cumming compensation pick). Hamish Davis. WA Claremont
27. Sydney (via North Melbourne). Matt Whitlock. Murray 
28. Richmond (via Gold Coast, North Melbourne). Ollie Hannaford. GWV
 

predicting the longest first round ever!!

Some likely 2nd rounders: 

Tom Gross - Oakleigh. 
Christian Moraes - Eastern.  
Kayle Gerryn - WA West Perth.  
Thomas Sims - Northern.
Jonty Faull - GWV.  
Jesse Dattoli - Northern.  
Harry O'Farrell - Calder.
Lachie Jacques - Geelong.
Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/  Tassie.  
Jack Ough - GWV.
Angus Clarke - SA Glenelg.
Josh Murphy - Murray.  
*** GWS Academy - Logan Smith
Charlie Nicholls - Central District SA.  
*** Crows. Tyler Welsh SA WWT eagles.  
James Barrat - Bendigo.  
*** Sydney academy. Joel Cochran. 
Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo. HFF.

Likely 3rd rounders: 
Riley Bice - Werribee VFL.
*** Crows father son . Luke Camporeale. Glenelg 
Sam Davidson. RICHMOND VFL 
Noah Mraz - Dandenong. 
Hugh Boxshall. WA Claremont
Zane Cochrane - Oakleigh.  
Clancy Dennis - WA  Claremont
*** Stk NGA. Adrian Cole.  Sandringham. 
Dom Brew. Mid. Werribee VFL
Jasper Alger. Oakleigh
Bailey McKenzie. Sandringham  
***Port father son Louis Montgomery. SA Nth Adel.  
Oliver Warburton. Murray.
Xavier Ivisic Geelong  
 *** West Coast NGA Malakai Champion.  WA  Subiaco.
Floyd Burmeister. GWV 
Will Hayes. WA Claremont.  

after this it’s seeing who might have draft picks available, or will pickup rookie opportunities or SSP train on spots. As with every year, there will be some very talented young footy players will miss out on getting on an AFL senior or rookie list.  

Potential for 4th round or likely rookies:  

Josh Dolan. Sandringham 
Phoenix Hargrave.  SA Sth Adel
Cody Anderson. Eastern.  
Jack Henderson. Werribee VFL.
Luke Kennedy . Sandringham.  
Patrick Retschko. Oakleigh 
Oliver Depaoli-Kubank. Tassie
Lucca Grego. Western. 
Kade Herbert. SA WWT eagles.
*** Port Adel NGA. Benny Barrett.Sth Adel. SA 
Ned Bowman. Norwood SA
Cody Angove. WA Claremont 
Zak Johnson. Northern.
Jaxon Artemis- WA Sth Frem
*** GWS academy. Cooper Bell.
Nash King. Mid. Calder
Aiden Riddle - WA. Claremont
Riak Andrew. Dandenong. 
Harry Charlson. GWV
Luke Urquhart. WA  East Frem
Damon Hollow. Calder
*** Saints NGA. Lennox Hoffman. Sandringham.
Rhys Unwin. GWV. 
Jett Hasting. SA WWT eagles. 
Mitch Kirkwood-Scott. Sandringham 
Blake Leidler. Oakleigh.  
Keighton Matofai-Forbes. Fwd. Western.  
** Ess NGA Jayden Nguyen Calder .
** Stk father son. Elwood Peckett
** Dees Father son Noah Yze. Oakleigh.  
**Dees NGA Ricky Mentha Gippsland 

Going through the current list changes with traded in/out players, retirements and delisting.  It looks like around 62-64 new players will be drafted in the senior list national draft this year.  After the 3rd round, there might be a very sparse 4th round selection group.  
Then with rookie upgrades and rookie retentions (plus others promised to be redrafted as a rookie) there’s only likely to be 12-16 new players drafted in the rookie draft. 

Dees might be able to have JT use a 3rd pick and find an available diamond in the rough.  Like Judd McVee, not all young talented players are top 25 draftees.  

Over 500 youngsters have nominated for the draft. Just over fifty will be selected.

Of those fifty perhaps 30 will play 50 games and ten make it to 100.

AFL is a tough world

There has never been more pressure on a club for the number 1 pick in a draft. While i know some of them have not been the players the clubs would hope, i don't remember a year where there are potentially up to 9 genuine options for that selection and Richmond get the fun role of doing what noone in the media has been able to do and it's picking 1 out as the best of the bunch. 

one argument which is the Jagga smith arguement, is that you get as close to a safe/sure thing with that pick, the opposite end is you go highest upside which is probably someone like Tauru or Lalor. 

My gut feel is they'll go in between and take FOS but i am very very happy to not have to make the call. we're in a nice position of getting the best prospect that slips through and the decision is effectively made for us. the top 6-7 i think will ultimately all be really good players, i don't really see any of them being busts. 

8 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Best guesses and estimates imv.  
I have the Dees holding at picks 5 & 9.  There’s likely to be some pick swaps throughout but the first round predictions as is are: 

1. Richmond. Sam Lalor. GWV
2.****Lions father son. Levi Ashcroft. Sandringham 
3. North Melbourne. Alix Tauru. Gippsland 
4. Carlton (via West Coast). Finn O’Sullivan . Oakleigh
5. Adelaide. Sid Draper. SA Sth Adelaide
6. Melbourne . Harvey Langford. Dandenong. 
7. Richmond (via Gold Coast). Jagga Smith. Oakleigh.  
8. ****Suns academy. Leonardo Lombard
9. St Kilda. Josh Smillie. Eastern
10. St Kilda (via Josh Battle compensation pick). Harry Armstrong . Sandringham 
11. Melbourne (via Essendon). Xavier Lindsay. Gippsland 
12. Richmond (via Fremantle) Tobie Travaglia. Bendigo 
13.Richmond (via Fremantle, Collingwood)  Luke Trainor. Sandringham 
14. West Coast (via Carlton) Bo Allan. WA Peel.
15. **** Ess NGA. Isaac Kako. Calder
16.  Port Adelaide (via Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs).  Joe Berry. Murray 
17. Fremantle (via Richmond, Hawthorn, Carlton).  Taj Hotton. Sandringham 
18. Greater Western Sydney. Jobe Shanahan. Bendigo
19. Greater Western Sydney (via Harry Perryman compensation pick). Murphy Reid. Sandringham 
20. Western Bulldogs (via Geelong). Cooper Hynes . Dandenong
21. **** Lions academy. Sam Marshall 
22. Richmond (via Fremantle, Port Adelaide). Jack Whitlock. Murray .
23.****Blues father son. Ben Camporeale. SA. 
24. Sydney. Harrison Oliver. Sandringham 
25. Richmond (via Brisbane). Alex Dodson. SA Sturt
26. Greater Western Sydney (via Isaac Cumming compensation pick). Hamish Davis. WA Claremont
27. Sydney (via North Melbourne). Matt Whitlock. Murray 
28. Richmond (via Gold Coast, North Melbourne). Ollie Hannaford. GWV
 

predicting the longest first round ever!!

Some likely 2nd rounders: 

Tom Gross - Oakleigh. 
Christian Moraes - Eastern.  
Kayle Gerryn - WA West Perth.  
Thomas Sims - Northern.
Jonty Faull - GWV.  
Jesse Dattoli - Northern.  
Harry O'Farrell - Calder.
Lachie Jacques - Geelong.
Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/  Tassie.  
Jack Ough - GWV.
Angus Clarke - SA Glenelg.
Josh Murphy - Murray.  
*** GWS Academy - Logan Smith
Charlie Nicholls - Central District SA.  
*** Crows. Tyler Welsh SA WWT eagles.  
James Barrat - Bendigo.  
*** Sydney academy. Joel Cochran. 
Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo. HFF.

Likely 3rd rounders: 
Riley Bice - Werribee VFL.
*** Crows father son . Luke Camporeale. Glenelg 
Sam Davidson. RICHMOND VFL 
Noah Mraz - Dandenong. 
Hugh Boxshall. WA Claremont
Zane Cochrane - Oakleigh.  
Clancy Dennis - WA  Claremont
*** Stk NGA. Adrian Cole.  Sandringham. 
Dom Brew. Mid. Werribee VFL
Jasper Alger. Oakleigh
Bailey McKenzie. Sandringham  
***Port father son Louis Montgomery. SA Nth Adel.  
Oliver Warburton. Murray.
Xavier Ivisic Geelong  
 *** West Coast NGA Malakai Champion.  WA  Subiaco.
Floyd Burmeister. GWV 
Will Hayes. WA Claremont.  

after this it’s seeing who might have draft picks available, or will pickup rookie opportunities or SSP train on spots. As with every year, there will be some very talented young footy players will miss out on getting on an AFL senior or rookie list.  

Potential for 4th round or likely rookies:  

Josh Dolan. Sandringham 
Phoenix Hargrave.  SA Sth Adel
Cody Anderson. Eastern.  
Jack Henderson. Werribee VFL.
Luke Kennedy . Sandringham.  
Patrick Retschko. Oakleigh 
Oliver Depaoli-Kubank. Tassie
Lucca Grego. Western. 
Kade Herbert. SA WWT eagles.
*** Port Adel NGA. Benny Barrett.Sth Adel. SA 
Ned Bowman. Norwood SA
Cody Angove. WA Claremont 
Zak Johnson. Northern.
Jaxon Artemis- WA Sth Frem
*** GWS academy. Cooper Bell.
Nash King. Mid. Calder
Aiden Riddle - WA. Claremont
Riak Andrew. Dandenong. 
Harry Charlson. GWV
Luke Urquhart. WA  East Frem
Damon Hollow. Calder
*** Saints NGA. Lennox Hoffman. Sandringham.
Rhys Unwin. GWV. 
Jett Hasting. SA WWT eagles. 
Mitch Kirkwood-Scott. Sandringham 
Blake Leidler. Oakleigh.  
Keighton Matofai-Forbes. Fwd. Western.  
** Ess NGA Jayden Nguyen Calder .
** Stk father son. Elwood Peckett
** Dees Father son Noah Yze. Oakleigh.  
**Dees NGA Ricky Mentha Gippsland 

Agreed @Ted Lasso  this years top group is so strong and so even. I went Sam Lalor as number 1 in my phantom draft due to his Dustin Martin like qualities and I reckon he has so much more to excel once he concentrates purely on footy. His skills are elite and his strength will be an asset. Though many many others could be number 1. O’Sullivan, Smith, Draper or Langford would be worthy number 1 picks.  Even Trainor and Smillie were once considered as the potential number 1. Murphy Reid has also been mentioned by Twomey as good enough for pick 1.  Dees at 5 get to see who is available.  Strangely pick 5 is nearly on par as having the 1,2,3 or 4 pick in some terms this year.  

6 hours ago, old55 said:

Option C which has been posted is to trade up 5 to get access to the very top end.

9 to GWS for 15 and 16

5 and 16 to North for 2 (better than Richmond are likely to offer)

2 and 15 in the draft.

I like this if Lalor is available

4 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Over 500 youngsters have nominated for the draft. Just over fifty will be selected.

Of those fifty perhaps 30 will play 50 games and ten make it to 100.

AFL is a tough world

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

Average games for picks 1-20 is well in excess of 100 games.

Next 50 picks average above 50+ games.

23 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Given the Tigers might like to grab Jagga Smith, if he was available at our pick, it would be worth a cheeky quick call to them to ask Tigers to see if they’d be interested in a swap of MFC 5 for their 6 and 24… but if the choice was between Smith and Tauru, I’d take Smith. 

 

8!

34 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

8!

Sorry … 

5 and 9 plus Yze and Mentha.

There is a chance if our preferred player is gone at 9 we may offer that pick to say GWS for their 15 and 16. But there is a bit of talent around 9 so i think we will take it to the draft.