The Run Home

[Roost it far 8,578]

17 hours ago, Antioch said:

I can’t believe bottom four Whorethorn is above us on the ladder. The MFC players who won a grand final are now officially a disgrace. And how did Fritsch’s bum get so fat?? Maybe jogging around and doing nothing!???

 

17 hours ago, Demonsone said:

Reality is how Hawthorn have won more games than us and the dogs have turned it around! The blow torch needs to go onto Goodwin and his assistants as something is clearly wrong with our game plan and our smashing of clearances all season, a review of our footy dept including the horrible trades of what’s come in vs what we let go

Calm the farm........Take a look at our close losses and our draw. Add in the loss of Gus, Petracca and the down year of Oliver. I'm not surprised by where we sit but let's stick to the facts as to why we sit there. I was a Goodwin knocker for awhile there but that came more out of the frustration of last years finals....Bugger....There I go again, bringing up those damn games and a weak pies flag that should be ours.

[titan_uranus 25,043]

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

Calm the farm........Take a look at our close losses and our draw. Add in the loss of Gus, Petracca and the down year of Oliver. I'm not surprised by where we sit but let's stick to the facts as to why we sit there. I was a Goodwin knocker for awhile there but that came more out of the frustration of last years finals....Bugger....There I go again, bringing up those damn games and a weak pies flag that should be ours.

Yes, we have had three close losses, and are 1-3 in games decided by under a goal. We know from the 2022-23 Collingwood debate that winning close games is part skill, part luck. Luck has been against us in most of those four close games, but skill has been lacking clearly. And for every close loss where we say "but if we'd just won that game we'd be X on the ladder", every other side has a similar story. 

The other points are all fair. The hope for 2025 is that we don't miss Trac for half a year or Melksham for half a year, we get Oliver through a proper pre-season with no hand injury, we don't have a top 10 player suddenly forced to retire a week before the season starts, and we get perhaps a slightly easier draw which doesn't require us to play four of the best 6-8 sides in the competition twice).

5 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

Interesting article on the AFL website ranking the fixture difficulty to date, and then the run home.

The most fascinating one is Carlton. Had the equal 9th hardest run to date, but then have the 15th hardest run over the next month!

How a team makes a preliminary final and gets that fixture the next year is beyond comprehension. They are the only team to play 17th and 18th twice this year.

The fixture is so rigged it makes a mockery of playing so many games. Just give the finals to the teams you want in it AFL, and save us all a couple of months.

The issue with fixturing is that it is done based on the previous season.

Our double-up games this year included Collingwood and Brisbane, last year's GF teams, and Port, a top 4 but out in straight sets side just like us. So we were given the three best sides other than us from last year's H&A season. But we also got Fremantle and the Dogs, who didn't make finals last year but are now two of the best handful of sides in 2024.

Carlton got Richmond, North, Collingwood, Geelong, Port and GWS. They got lucky to avoid Sydney, Brisbane, Fremantle and the Dogs, but to be fair they were given last year's premier, a PF loser, a H&A top 4 side, and Geelong. Richmond are also much worse than they were last year too.

[Demonland 73,139]

Top-12 mini ladder

		Played	Points (W/L)	%
1	Sydney	13	40 (10-3)	133.2
2	Carlton	13	28 (7-6)	103.9
3	Geelong	13	28 (7-6)	103.4
4	Western Bulldogs	14	24 (6-8)	99.8
5	Greater Western Sydney	12	24 (6-6)	99.8
6	Port Adelaide	11	24 (6-5)	95.2
7	Collingwood	13	24 (5-6-2)	93.9
8	Fremantle	11	22 (5-5-1)	105.5
9	Brisbane	11	20 (5-6)	100.2
10	Melbourne	13	20 (5-8)	90.8
11	Hawthorn	12	20 (5-7)	87.8
12	Essendon	10	18 (4-5-1)	88.7

[titan_uranus 25,043]

6 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Top-12 mini ladder

		Played	Points (W/L)	%
1	Sydney	13	40 (10-3)	133.2
2	Carlton	13	28 (7-6)	103.9
3	Geelong	13	28 (7-6)	103.4
4	Western Bulldogs	14	24 (6-8)	99.8
5	Greater Western Sydney	12	24 (6-6)	99.8
6	Port Adelaide	11	24 (6-5)	95.2
7	Collingwood	13	24 (5-6-2)	93.9
8	Fremantle	11	22 (5-5-1)	105.5
9	Brisbane	11	20 (5-6)	100.2
10	Melbourne	13	20 (5-8)	90.8
11	Hawthorn	12	20 (5-7)	87.8
12	Essendon	10	18 (4-5-1)	88.7

We're on 13 games played with three to come, so we'll end up on 16 games against this group of 12 (GC is excluded from the group).

Collingwood will end up with 17, whilst GWS, Sydney and the Dogs will join us on 16. Meanwhile Essendon only get to 13 whilst Hawthorn, Brisbane, Geelong and Port only get to 14. Those variations in the fixture make a difference - Essendon are where they are because they've had more games against the bottom 6 than the rest of the contenders.

Reality is of course that most of the season's true contenders (Sydney, Fremantle, Brisbane, the Dogs) have either positive W-L in this group or positive percentage. We are neither of those, when I expect we would have been in both in 2021-23.

[rpfc 28,768]

We are a good show for top 5 pick…

[Diamond_Jim 12,627]

2 minutes ago, rpfc said:

We are a good show for top 5 pick…

That would mean the Saints passing us. Unlikely but 6 or 7 is a real possibility. My guess is 8. We'll beat the Suns and the Pies (maybe)

[rpfc 28,768]

8 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

That would mean the Saints passing us. Unlikely but 6 or 7 is a real possibility. My guess is 8. We'll beat the Suns and the Pies (maybe)

I think the suns will beat us and the pies are in our heads. And we should be shutting up shop if we lose against the Dogs. We should prepare for 2025.

[JJR 681]

On 28/07/2024 at 19:00, Antioch said:

I can’t believe bottom four Whorethorn is above us on the ladder. The MFC players who won a grand final are now officially a disgrace. And how did Fritsch’s bum get so fat?? Maybe jogging around and doing nothing!???

Shut up.

[Hatchman 539]

Personally I think the season was over after the loss to Freo. Despite trying to preserve players with different game styles  after the 22/23 seasons to mitigate injuries, the losses of Brayshaw, Trac, Salem (again), Max has been too much to overcome.

I suspect Windsor has been iced as well given his age. 

If we make the finals that will be commendable but I don't care if we miss because we are not a chance to win. I still believe in our list and with a couple of savvy trades in the off season and some luck with injuries next year we will be in the hunt again for one more time. 

In the meantime rewatching the 2021 Flag when the season is over again will keep me happy

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

19 hours ago, rpfc said:

We are a good show for top 5 pick…

I hope so... last time we had that we got Pickett (perhaps, I can't quite recall)

[RedBlueandTrue 359]

On 29/07/2024 at 12:15, M_9 said:

My 'doom and gloom' outlook extends to next year and beyond. Other than JvR, Caleb and ? I can't see any of our current players getting any better. MJ our only real hope at Casey. Some dead wood will go and hopefully JT and his mob have learnt not to recruit more dead wood.

My friend, I am pleased to say I cannot disagree more! So many of our players have scope for improvement! Not to say they all will, but there is so much potential.

Even in the ones we might not expect - look at TMac.

I expect natural progression from:

JVR, Turner, Judd, Kolt, Windsor, AMW, Howes, Kynan, Taj and Jefferson. One or two of our other rookies may also come on. To a lesser extent I would include; Rivers, Pickett and Chandler.

I think the following players have either been down or unavailable for different reasons and are a chance to either improve dramatically, play a critical role or regain their best form:

Oliver, Spargo, Laurie, Petty, Sparrow, Bowey, McAdam, Melksham and Salem.

They won't all improve but I think a lot will.

We've got a great and underrated bunch! So excited to see how they all go in the years to come.

[Adam The God 30,407]

1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

I hope so... last time we had that we got Pickett (perhaps, I can't quite recall)

Kozzy was pick 12, basically pick 10, but Freo had a NGA pick in Henry at 9 and GCS had a priority pick at 2 and picked Anderson.

The last time we had a top 5 pick we got LJ in that same draft, the 2019 draft.

And the time before that we got Clarry.

JT loves the top 5.

[Roost it far 8,578]

21 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Kozzy was pick 12, basically pick 10, but Freo had a NGA pick in Henry at 9 and GCS had a priority pick at 2 and picked Anderson.

The last time we had a top 5 pick we got LJ in that same draft, the 2019 draft.

And the time before that we got Clarry.

JT loves the top 5.

I reckon I could pick a winner with a top 5 pick, it’s picks 6-30 where the magic needs to happen. 

[Adam The God 30,407]

31 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

I reckon I could pick a winner with a top 5 pick, it’s picks 6-30 where the magic needs to happen. 

That's not giving enough credit to recruiters. Plenty of misses in the top 5.

[Guest]

On 28/07/2024 at 19:00, Antioch said:

I can’t believe bottom four Whorethorn is above us on the ladder. The MFC players who won a grand final are now officially a disgrace. And how did Fritsch’s bum get so fat?? Maybe jogging around and doing nothing!???

So Fritta’s got a fat bum? That’s some constructive criticism right there.

I showed this to his mum and she said (after laughing her head off) jogging around doesn’t give you a fat bum, but sitting behind your computer screen insulting footballers does. 😅 Love that woman.

 

edit: I had to weed out some of her adjectives and nouns so as to give the censorship function a break. 

Edited July 31 by WalkingCivilWar

[leave it to deever 17,517]

8 hours ago, JJR said:

Shut up.

Usually tell people off for these sorts of posts.

But calling the  only team to win a flag in over fifty years a disgrace is going way too far.

 

[greenwaves 489]

3 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

...calling the only team to win a flag in over fifty years a disgrace is going way too far.

It's just another sad, miserable troll trying to get a reaction.  They deserve our pity.

@JJR

[Tracca 853]

time to trade Salem, he has value, and we have a plethora of HBF that can take that position full time, hes been a loyal servant but will only go backwards from here. I dont think he offers anything unique for us

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

Is there any feasible chance we can make finals with 13 wins and the assumption that out percentage would increase somewhat with a 3-1 record to close the season?

If yes, then I’ll start getting interested in the run home once again.

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

46 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Is there any feasible chance we can make finals with 13 wins and the assumption that out percentage would increase somewhat with a 3-1 record to close the season?

If yes, then I’ll start getting interested in the run home once again.

This is what my simulations show Melbourne's chances of playing finals are for a given number of wins (which does account for Melbourne's percentage):

14.0 wins: 97%

13.5 wins: 74%

13.0 wins: 29%

12.5 wins: 7%

12.0 wins: 0.4%

[binman 43,747]

13 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

This is what my simulations show Melbourne's chances of playing finals are for a given number of wins (which does account for Melbourne's percentage):

14.0 wins: 97%

13.5 wins: 74%

13.0 wins: 29%

12.5 wins: 7%

12.0 wins: 0.4%

[Adam The God 30,407]

Nice haircut, Binners.

[ANG13 2,066]

2 hours ago, Tracca said:

time to trade Salem, he has value, and we have a plethora of HBF that can take that position full time, hes been a loyal servant but will only go backwards from here. I dont think he offers anything unique for us

What do you think his value is?

[middleagedemon 325]

Top 6 pick here we come. 

The way we're playing, I can't see a win coming from our last four games. I would have hoped against a depleted Collingwood, but we seem to have nightmares thinking about playing them and the game is over in our heads before we even take to the field. 

A good thing long-term, with some welcome changes on the horizon. Would love for us to work our way into obtaining two picks inside 10 this year.

[middleagedemon 325]

Just now, ANG13 said:

What do you think his value is?

Second-rounder at best. 

His body has continued to let him down which has seen him underperform since '21.

I still think he'd be a game changer for us if he was able to bullet-proof his body and have consecutive uninterrupted full seasons.