The Dees Incredibly Frustrating to Watch

[binman 42,919]

Player Statistics Comparison   Jacob Van Rooyen Name Logan McDonald Melbourne Demons Team Sydney Swans Forward Position Forward 20 Career Games 44 Claremont Origin Perth Fc April 16, 2003 Date of Birth April 4, 2002 20yr 9mth Age 21yr 10mth 193cm Height 195cm 96kg Weight 95kg 2021 National Draft Last Drafted In 2020 National Draft Round 1, Pick #19 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #4 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Sydney Swans Career Stats for Season Career 20 Games 44 4.5 Kicks 6.0 4.2 Handballs 3.0 8.7 Disposals 9.0 3.1 Marks 4.0 1.4 Goals 1.3 0.5 Behinds 0.8 2.1 Tackles 1.4 3.7 Hitouts 0.1 1.2 Inside 50s 1.5 0.3 Goal Assists 0.6 0.9 Frees For 0.7 0.8 Frees Against 0.4 4.3 Contested Possessions 3.9 4.8 Uncontested Possessions 5.2 6.8 Effective Disposals 6.4 78.2% Disposal Efficiency % 71.1% 1.6 Clangers 1.3 0.9 Contested Marks 0.7 1.5 Marks Inside 50 1.4 0.3 Clearances 0.1 0 Rebound 50s 0.1 2.1 One Percenters 1.2 0 Bounces 0 74.0 Time On Ground % 74.1 0.1 Centre Clearances 0 0.2 Stoppage Clearances 0.1 4.0 Score Involvements 4.4 113.0 Metres Gained 133.3 1.5 Turnovers 1.6 0.5 Intercepts 0.7 1.1 Tackles Inside 50 0.7

[binman 42,919]

ayer Statistics Comparison

Jacob Van Rooyen Name Jye Amiss Melbourne Demons Team Fremantle Dockers Forward Position Forward 20 Career Games 25 Claremont Origin East Perth April 16, 2003 Date of Birth July 31, 2003 20yr 9mth Age 20yr 6mth 193cm Height 196cm 96kg Weight 86kg 2021 National Draft Last Drafted In 2021 National Draft Round 1, Pick #19 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #8 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Fremantle Dockers Career Stats for Season Career 20 Games 25 4.5 Kicks 5.3 4.2 Handballs 2.5 8.7 Disposals 7.8 3.1 Marks 3.7 1.4 Goals 1.8 0.5 Behinds 0.7 2.1 Tackles 1.3 3.7 Hitouts 0 1.2 Inside 50s 1.0 0.3 Goal Assists 0.4 0.9 Frees For 0.7 0.8 Frees Against 0.4 4.3 Contested Possessions 3.8 4.8 Uncontested Possessions 4.2 6.8 Effective Disposals 5.5 78.2% Disposal Efficiency % 70.5% 1.6 Clangers 1.2 0.9 Contested Marks 1.4 1.5 Marks Inside 50 1.9 0.3 Clearances 0 0 Rebound 50s 0 2.1 One Percenters 0.6 0 Bounces 0.2 74.0 Time On Ground % 78.5 0.1 Centre Clearances 0 0.2 Stoppage Clearances 0 4.0 Score Involvements 4.5 113.0 Metres Gained 139.6 1.5 Turnovers 1.4 0.5 Intercepts 0.3 1.1 Tackles Inside 50 0.7

[binman 42,919]

7 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

I think that's a lot of unfair baggage to be dumping on JVR, Binny. For goodness sake, Melksham missing may have cost us the game. Petty missing may have cost us the game. Brayshaw missing probably cost us the game. BBB missing may have cost us the game. Poor kicking at goal certainly cost us the game. Despite your comment to the contrary, you have "hanged the young fella out to dry" unfairly in my opinion.

Fair call.

I wasn't blaming him for the loss as such, but i could see how it might be perceived that way.

I should have said him missing might have been a factor in the loss. Or some such.

What i was trying to say is that (unlike Petty, Gus and Melk who were all injured) JVR mised the Blues game because of a lack of discipline.

He doesn't deserve to be blamed for the loss, and i don't, but criticism is reasonable as its hard to argue our chances of winning the blues game would not have increased if he had.

It was a stupid and unnecessary act that in the home and away season wouldn't mean much as he only copped a week.

But it had huge ramifications given that one week ban cost him a place in a cut throat final and we were already struggling to field KPFs. 

He might be young, but he is a professional athlete and shouldn't be immune from reasonable criticism. I'd be be pretty confident it came up in his exit review. 

Edited February 13 by binman

[binman 42,919]

I noted that the fact JVR has been in the AFL system for a year less than Ugle Hagen reinforces my confidence in JVR going to another level this season. Van Ruin has HUGE upside (not to say UE doesn't).

So, out of interest i compared JVRs 2023 season (his second in the AFL system) with Ugle Hagens 2022 season, which was also his second in the AFL system. 

That gives the fairest possible comparison i think. The same number of years in the system, comparing both at the same age, almost identical roles (bar the ruck work JVR did), and a full season's average stats.

JVR shades  Ugle Hagen in the majority of categories.

By the by, one stats jumps out in all four comparisons i've posted - JVR smashes, Ugle Hagen, McDonald and Amiss for one percenters. Which doesn't surprise me becuase one of thing i most love about JVR is how competitive he is.

As he gets bigger and stronger that will give him a big competitive advantage. Ugle Hagen on the other hand has faced some criticism for not being hard at it. 

Player Statistics Comparison

Jacob Van Rooyen Name Jamarra Ugle-Hagan Melbourne Demons Team Western Bulldogs Forward Position Forward 20 Career Games 45 Claremont Origin Oakleigh Chargers April 16, 2003 Date of Birth April 4, 2002 20yr 9mth Age Turned 20 in 2022 193cm Height 197cm 96kg Weight 91kg 2021 National Draft Last Drafted In 2020 National Draft Round 1, Pick #19 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #1 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Western Bulldogs Career Stats for Season 2022 20 Games 17 4.5 Kicks 5.9 4.2 Handballs 2.0 8.7 Disposals 7.9 3.1 Marks 3.5 1.4 Goals 1.1 0.5 Behinds 0.9 2.1 Tackles 1.1 3.7 Hitouts 0.2 1.2 Inside 50s 1.9 0.3 Goal Assists 0.1 0.9 Frees For 0.6 0.8 Frees Against 0.3 4.3 Contested Possessions 3.6 4.8 Uncontested Possessions 4.5 6.8 Effective Disposals 4.7 78.2% Disposal Efficiency % 59.5% 1.6 Clangers 1.9 0.9 Contested Marks 1.0 1.5 Marks Inside 50 1.8 0.3 Clearances 0 0 Rebound 50s 0 2.1 One Percenters 0.9 0 Bounces 0.1 74.0 Time On Ground % 72.9 0.1 Centre Clearances 0 0.2 Stoppage Clearances 0 4.0 Score Involvements 3.5 113.0 Metres Gained 183.8 1.5 Turnovers 2.2 0.5 Intercepts 0.5 1.1 Tackles Inside 50 0.3

[binman 42,919]

Two other stats that that jump out are disposal efficiency and tackles.  

JVR averages twice as many tackels as Ugle Hagen, McDonald and Amiss - again not surprising given his competiveness and how ferocious his attack's on the ball and man is.

And his disposal efficiency is significantly better than that of Ugle Hagen, McDonald and Amiss - particularly UE, who in his career goes at a woeful 56.3% to JVR's impressive 78.2%.

Good kicking is good football. 

[whatwhat say what 22,747]

jvr's upside is enormous

[IRW 1,387]

4 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

It’s not that simple. It’s overwhelmingly in the best interests of the AFL to have Carlton or Collingwood in the GF, with the ultimate dream… both of them. That’s the ‘Why’ and as for the ‘How’ think of all the serendipitous happenings at the pointy end of last season. 

No problem with that truth.

It wasn't what I responded to though

[IRW 1,387]

1 minute ago, IRW said:

No problem with that truth.

It wasn't what I responded to though ; serendipity is like the Dees having no injuries in 21 and Geelong getting the flu.

Things happen and the world isn't out make MFC fail.

 

[Cyclops 511]

4 hours ago, 58er said:

You know what JVR is thinking Cycl really or you presume  by looking at him?

Silly question really @58er I no more know what JVR is thinking than I do about what your thinking.

I have, as is my want, made an observation about his actions both what they have been and what I consider they need to be.

[Fork 'em 6,983]

I hated watching the Swans under Roos.

Refused to watch the Aints and Dockers under Lyon.

And now I'm stuck watching us under Goodwin.

We play boring, predictable, uninspiring footy and that is no way to build a supporter base while you're in contention.

There is a bigger picture here folks.

Edited February 13 by Fork 'em

[Clintosaurus 7,844]

1 hour ago, IRW said:

No problem with that truth.

It wasn't what I responded to though

They are both good teams, but did have good fortune when needed. The tribunal loves them and magically the whistle goes away when required.

[DEE fence 5,007]

@binman

Really appreciated the comparisons you posted, the thing that stands out to me is the weight, he has the other 3 covered despite being the shortest of the bunch. 

I also think that Amiss/UE are more Gunston type bodies, so not a direct comparison to JVR who is a power forward in any era. McD from the Swans is a like for like comparison, however has played in the shadow of Buddy(is that a thing?), so I think we will get a better look at him this year, but JVR certainly in the conversation there.

BTW JVR ended the season with a total of 28 goals and 9 behinds, leading to an accuracy percentage of 75.7%. This performance was highlighted as the highest goal-to-behind percentage among players with 30 or more scoring shots in the league.

So Binman is on the money with best young forward going around. Then I got curious, how does he stack against others in recent history, in the power forward stakes (at the age of 20), I didn't count first season - He would have been further ahead than most by that metric. Anyway as a 20 y.o. H2H, I checked with:

3.65 S. Rocca - was a monster.

3.32 Franklin - surprised was not the best.

2.95 Cameron - in a gun team.

2.2 Cloke - pre yips

2.2 Hogan - Just quietly GWS has made out like a bandit with Hogan.

1.94 Walker - annoyed at this, don't like the man.

1.69 Fevola - top of any list for wasted talent.

1.62 A. Rocca - Bam bam from the flintstones

1.52 J.Brown - CHF to be fair and still dominant but in a generational team with best mids going.

1.47 B. King

1.4 JVR

1.33 Pavlich 

1.33 Daniher

1.3 Hawkins

1.22 M. King

1.0 J. Riewoldt

0.95 Hall

0.95 C.Curnow

0.93 N. Riewoldt

0.71 Lynch

0.46 J.Kennedy

Keep in mind 2023 was his first season, the others were not, and also defense is so much stronger now most of those had their start prior to the Lyon/Clarkson floods. Who else wants to chip in $50 for towards a statue of Jason Taylor???? 

Edited February 13 by DEE fence
added King brothers, Lynch, Hawkins, JD, CC, JC etc

[Jjrogan 1,420]

The most important metric for any key forward is simply marks per game. Averaging under 4 will not keep you in the system long.  This is not a knock on JVR but if there was one thing he needs to focus on that's it. The rest is just icing.  

(That's not to say averaging more than 4 makes you a gun but it's fair to say 4 or below and you'll be struggling to get games or make an impact in the long run)

Personally I'm not convinced. Yet. By his own admission he isn't a natural forward, and whilst he has impressive physicality, he needs to find the ball on the end of leads more. T Mac, Fritsch, BBB have all done this in recent years so it is possible with the current delivery system.  I think he needs to get the 2nd or 3rd key back but having said that, those defenders are typically quicker so it's not so easy. Having Petty back and McAdam firing is going to be crucial so he can take either weaker or slower defender and then exploit it. 

As a related point Josh Schache averaged well over  4 marks a game in his first 2 years at Brisbane but then regresed at the Doggies, which tells me they didn't use or develop him correctly.  I fear Melbourne holds the same view on his abilities, which imo are being harshly judged. His output isn't awful when he is given extended game time. If he doesn't play significant minutes in the early part of the year as a back up ruck and key marking target for a team that surely needs both, um, what exactly is he on the list for? 

[DEE fence 5,007]

19 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

The most important metric for any key forward is simply marks per game. Averaging under 4 will not keep you in the system long.  This is not a knock on JVR but if there was one thing he needs to focus on that's it. The rest is just icing.  

 

FWIW both the King Brothers go under 4 - and have a significant height advantage, I would (politely) argue that JVR brings accuracy to the table and that offsets opportunity (from marks), a'la Travis Cloke who went near 8/1.5g or even Lowe 8-9, for a 0.5 return.  I also think apart from out i50 connection, he did not jell that well with TMac and BB, this is more a feeling from remembered vision than checking stats. I got the impression that he and Petty make a better mix than either of the other two with JVR. Not wanting to pay out on TMac, but watching vision I felt like he was most likely to spoil his own team mate in a pack. Completely subjective opinion for which I cannot find a stat, but did anyone else think that? Anyway Marks important but surely it's Goals hey?

Edited February 13 by DEE fence
finished last sentence

[old55 23,561]

10 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Petty has had very poor preparation for the season and could easily be out for the next few months. On top of that everyone seems to forget that he’s played a handful of games for us as a forward, he’s still a forward in progress.

TMac…..if he’s in the team we’re playing a man down.

McAdam, I’d love him fit and in the team but that seems unlikely to be consistent enough for true synergy to develop. Melksham is 32 and coming back from an ACL, he’s 50-50 at the very best. 

On top of all this you’ve got our heavy reliance on Gawn and also May. I actually still think we can win it but with the improvement of clubs around us we can’t afford much to go wrong. For mine our season is on a knife edge. 
I know that triggers people around here but that’s my thoughts. 

Wait,  what? We're not guaranteed to win the flag and the best is only that we can win it? I want my money back!

[Jjrogan 1,420]

4 minutes ago, DEE fence said:

FWIW both the King Brothers go under 4 - and have a significant height advantage, I would (politely) argue that JVR brings accuracy to the table and that offsets opportunity (from marks), a'la Travis Cloke who went near 8/1.5g or even Lowe 8-9, for a 0.5 return.  I also think apart from out i50 connection, he did not jell that well with TMac and BB, this is more a feeling from remembered vision than checking stats. I got the impression that he and Petty make a better mix than either of the other two with JVR. Not wanting to pay out on TMac, but watching vision I felt like he was most likely to spoil his own team mate in a pack. Completely subjective opinion for which I cannot find a stat, but did anyone else think that? Anyway Marks are very important

I think Max averages well over 4 and is the better player in my view.   Ben is around the JVR mark (pun intended) but not to data mine he did play for a very poor team in his first 2 years. Since then it's trended up with the team improving.  Also Ben has had many matchwinning games, which JVR can hopefully replicate if he doesn't mark it consistently. I

All i'm saying is JVR hopefully keeps finding more tricks in the bag other than simply filling out and providing a contest. 

[binman 42,919]

1 hour ago, DEE fence said:

@binman

Really appreciated the comparisons you posted, the thing that stands out to me is the weight, he has the other 3 covered despite being the shortest of the bunch. 

I also think that Amiss/UE are more Gunston type bodies, so not a direct comparison to JVR who is a power forward in any era. McD from the Swans is a like for like comparison, however has played in the shadow of Buddy(is that a thing?), so I think we will get a better look at him this year, but JVR certainly in the conversation there.

BTW JVR ended the season with a total of 28 goals and 9 behinds, leading to an accuracy percentage of 75.7%. This performance was highlighted as the highest goal-to-behind percentage among players with 30 or more scoring shots in the league.

So Binman is on the money with best young forward going around. Then I got curious, how does he stack against others in recent history, in the power forward stakes (at the age of 20), I didn't count first season - He would have been further ahead than most by that metric. Anyway as a 20 y.o. H2H, I checked with:

3.65 S. Rocca - was a monster.

3.32 Franklin - surprised was not the best.

2.95 Cameron - in a gun team.

2.2 Cloke - pre yips

2.2 Hogan - Just quietly GWS has made out like a bandit with Hogan.

1.94 Walker - annoyed at this, don't like the man.

1.69 Fevola - top of any list for wasted talent.

1.62 A. Rocca - Bam bam from the flintstones

1.52 J.Brown - CHF to be fair and still dominant but in a generational team with best mids going.

1.47 B. King

1.4 JVR

1.33 Pavlich 

1.33 Daniher

1.3 Hawkins

1.22 M. King

1.0 J. Riewoldt

0.95 Hall

0.95 C.Curnow

0.93 N. Riewoldt

0.71 Lynch

0.46 J.Kennedy

Keep in mind 2023 was his first season, the others were not, and also defense is so much stronger now most of those had their start prior to the Lyon/Clarkson floods. Who else wants to chip in $50 for towards a statue of Jason Taylor???? 

That's goals per game I assume.

[DEE fence 5,007]

35 minutes ago, binman said:

That's goals per game I assume.

Yes, and in their 20th year, going by birth date (incl. for marks that I looked at the Kings)

[DEE fence 5,007]

1 hour ago, Jjrogan said:

 

All i'm saying is JVR hopefully keeps finding more tricks in the bag other than simply filling out and providing a contest. 

On the same page there, if he improves like King did 20th to 21st years in Marks, he'll be on track to score more as well. I'm inclined to agree and think on eye ball the Kings are marginally better, but it's hardly daylight and JVR could easily close the gap, if not surpass them. Value for money (pick wise) JVR is a beauty. You didn't comment on accuracy as a metric though? traded off against marks...  

[binman 42,919]

1 hour ago, Jjrogan said:

I think Max averages well over 4 and is the better player in my view.   Ben is around the JVR mark (pun intended) but not to data mine he did play for a very poor team in his first 2 years. Since then it's trended up with the team improving.  Also Ben has had many matchwinning games, which JVR can hopefully replicate if he doesn't mark it consistently. I

All i'm saying is JVR hopefully keeps finding more tricks in the bag other than simply filling out and providing a contest. 

All fair points.

I agree he could improve his marking. I'm sure he will as he is so obviously driven. 

I have only been to one training session this year but I could not have been more impressed with his marking, particularly in one on one drills with key defenders.

He out muscled and out marked May right in front of me and i loudy  sledged May with the old too big, too strong call - much to Maysie's displeasure, who (correctly) pointed out the ball was kicked to JVRs advantage.

In terms of tricks in the bag, I'd reiterate two points i made earlier that I think are areas he has real edge in.

For a young KPF in his first full season at AFL level, he did a hell of a lot of rucking.

I watched him at Casey at the beginning of his first season and his ruck skills were average. By the end of that season they were pretty good.

But last season I thought they were excellent - particularly his tap work. 

Great he has the skills, even better that he obviously dud the work to develop them.

None of the other young key forwards did anywhere near as much rucking as he did, some not at all, other than occasional forward 50 throw ins. 

And whilst i concede this may well be confirmation bias, my recollection is all the young KPFs mentioned, with the possible exception of Logan McDonald  are decidely average in the ruck - particularly both King brothers.

JVR will only improve his ruck skills as he gets stronger and bigger (he has another 3-4 years of incremental growth) and as he keeps honing his craft.

That is a big string to his bow - and point of difference - particularly in a period where every team is playing a ruck and forward/ruck.

Personally I'd like to see him ruck less this season (so he doesn't get smashed and worn out so much - that might be a factor in his marks per game average).

But in two to three years time he could become a real weapon in the duel role. 

If your KPF is as rubbish at rucking as the King brothers, teams are forced to bring in a player like Lobb.

So having a key forward who can ruck to a high level is a big advantage. Particularly if your main, or second ruck gets injured.

Also, when JVR is fully filled out he will be a beast and be a weapon at inside 50 ruck contests the way Hawkins has been for the last few years.

The other point of difference is his tackling numbers.

With tackles inside 50 being so important now, having a KPF tackling twice as often as his peers is a big tick.

This particular conversation started with a comment by me that not all is doom and gloom in terms of our supposed forward line woes as in addition to Fritter, JVR (who surely we can agree, if not the best, is ONE of of the best young forwards) will go up a couple of levels. 

Which, for me points to another curious element in the logic of some who think we will slide because other teams will improve.

Why curious?

Because the implication is we won't.

Yes we have key players like maxy and maysie in the back end of their career. But EVERY team does. 

But that is more than balanced out by the likely natural progression and improvement of established best 22 players like JVR, Koz, Sparrow, Rivers,  Chandler, McVee and Bowser. 

And under Goody, every seaon a young player has come into the side and established themselves as a best 22 player and improved the side - some like Bowser and mcvee from left field.

Any one of Woey, Howes, Laurie, Turner, Adams, Sestan or Monez-Wakefield could be such a player

And of course, so could one of the first year players like the colt or Windsor.

Edited February 13 by binman

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,175]

On 12/02/2024 at 18:40, Roost it far said:

It's also exactly why we might be headed for a fall. The margins are so fine and with Petty, Melksham and likely McAdam out who exactly is going to kick the goals?

Mainly the same guys that played in both finals that had us in winning positions but didn’t execute. We are no worse off than last year. We did not lose through lack of creating scoring chances but poor execution and  conversion away from finals wins. 

[Roost it far 8,264]

Find it interesting that so many on here deny the fact we crumbled under pressure in the last 2 years of finals, especially 23 and that our culture is not all it’s cracked up to be. Maybe take a listen to Christian Petracca talk about it. He flat out admits both. I know many of you can’t bare to think we’re not the best and talking about it triggers you but we’re not. We’re in it but we need a lot to go right and some very important things to change. 

Edited February 14 by Roost it far

[58er 6,432]

7 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Find it interesting that so many on here deny the fact we crumbled under pressure in the last 2 years of finals, especially 23 and that our culture is not all it’s cracked up to be. Maybe take a listen to Christian Petracca talk about it. He flat out admits both. I know many of you can’t bare to think we’re not the best and talking about it triggers you but we’re not. We’re in it but we need a lot to go right and some very important things to change. 

I think some will agree others won’t on your half glass empty prediction. 
SPort by nature is not necessarily linear and because in ‘23 we lost close Finals  games does not mean the same result in 2024.  In 2022 Cwood lost 2 Gindls like us by points only and look at 2024. 

Take a look at the 2021 last quarter and bit vs Cats courtesy 6six6 and the will to win in that game. Do you know what I don’t think it’s any more or less than our last quarter vs Pies I. The QF. We had the shots and  ball in the last quarter to win but just didn’t haven’t magic finishing touch. Put 2/3 class finishing  players and that result would be overturned. Players maybe like Billing’s or McAdam maybe Bowser up forward. That’s why we are in the flag race up to our bootstraps and with some dare and tweaking it’s entirely possible. 

Attitude and class are there but it doesn’t always surface. 
What I do know is if Gawn Viney Trac Clarry Maysie and Lever all stray their best they bring the others along. We have enough ability and will to be a top team and 2024 is a perfect opportunity to show it. 

[58er 6,432]

3 minutes ago, 58er said:

I think some will agree others won’t on your half glass empty prediction. 
SPort by nature is not necessarily linear and because in ‘23 we lost close Finals  games does not mean the same result in 2024.  In 2022 Cwood lost 2 Gindls like us by points only and look at 2024. 

Take a look at the 2021 last quarter and bit vs Cats courtesy 6six6 and the will to win in that game. Do you know what I don’t think it’s any more or less than our last quarter vs Pies I. The QF. We had the shots and  ball in the last quarter to win but just didn’t haven’t magic finishing touch. Put 2/3 class finishing  players and that result would be overturned. Players maybe like Billing’s or McAdam maybe Bowser up forward. That’s why we are in the flag race up to our bootstraps and with some dare and tweaking it’s entirely possible. 

Attitude and class are there but it doesn’t always surface. 
What I do know is if Gawn Viney Trac Clarry Maysie and Lever all stray their best they bring the others along. We have enough ability and will to be a top team and 2024 is a perfect opportunity to show it. 

Pies take a look at 2023 not 2024.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,175]

10 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Find it interesting that so many on here deny the fact we crumbled under pressure in the last 2 years of finals, especially 23 and that our culture is not all it’s cracked up to be. Maybe take a listen to Christian Petracca talk about it. He flat out admits both. I know many of you can’t bare to think we’re not the best and talking about it triggers you but we’re not. We’re in it but we need a lot to go right and some very important things to change. 

I agree we did not handle the expectation and pressures and still lost twice by the small margins to two  quality sides. That’s says to me we just need to get the team mentality right and manage the big moments better. The Petracca talk confirms the players are aware and not denying this.  Most other things are in check. 

Edited February 14 by Lil_red_fire_engine