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Has our form been overstated?

At the break of Gawn
in Melbourne Demons

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49 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Look, I know coming into this round we had won 5 on the trot, but we haven’t played anywhere near as convincingly as some would say. Let’s break down those 5 wins:

1. Saints @ Marvel

Saints lost 3 players in game and were always going to run out of legs. We even almost got overrun in that last qtr. Just a win in my book.

2. Lions @ MCG

Despite a blistering first qtr and an awesome last 7 minutes, the Lions looked the far better side and torched us with their ball movement. We were lucky to get the win in the end.

3. Adelaide @ MCG

Good first 3 qtrs against a decent side but we conceded 7 goals in a row in the last qtr and almost got overrun.

4. Richmond @ MCG

Our best win I think but Richmond (who’s firmly a bottom 8 side) got up by 20pts in the 3rd qtr and made our defence look really shaky with quick forward entries.

5. North @ BA

I know the second half was easy going but to let a team as bad as that to get up by 30pts is just worrying in itself. I get the whole not switched on thing, but we got jumped again last night.

I feel like if we’re a genuine shot at the flag this year we really need to see two really strong performances against the Hawks and Swans. 

In some ways, last night’s loss might be a blessing because there’s so much in our game that we still need to get right and hopefully it spurs on Goodwin to make those final tweaks to get us there.

A lot of excuse-making for our opponents here. No game is going to go 100% to plan. The wins are what they are, and you can rate them or look at reasons why they wouldn't have happened. Carlton fans might easily do the same had a certain goal line decision gone the other way last night.

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    Underestimate the Hawks at our peril - would love a 10 goal win but any win will do.

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    48 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

    Look, I know coming into this round we had won 5 on the trot, but we haven’t played anywhere near as convincingly as some would say. Let’s break down those 5 wins:

    1. Saints @ Marvel

    Saints lost 3 players in game and were always going to run out of legs. We even almost got overrun in that last qtr. Just a win in my book.

    2. Lions @ MCG

    Despite a blistering first qtr and an awesome last 7 minutes, the Lions looked the far better side and torched us with their ball movement. We were lucky to get the win in the end.

    3. Adelaide @ MCG

    Good first 3 qtrs against a decent side but we conceded 7 goals in a row in the last qtr and almost got overrun.

    4. Richmond @ MCG

    Our best win I think but Richmond (who’s firmly a bottom 8 side) got up by 20pts in the 3rd qtr and made our defence look really shaky with quick forward entries.

    5. North @ BA

    I know the second half was easy going but to let a team as bad as that to get up by 30pts is just worrying in itself. I get the whole not switched on thing, but we got jumped again last night.

    I feel like if we’re a genuine shot at the flag this year we really need to see two really strong performances against the Hawks and Swans. 

    In some ways, last night’s loss might be a blessing because there’s so much in our game that we still need to get right and hopefully it spurs on Goodwin to make those final tweaks to get us there.

    It's football in 2023. So everything is overstated whether it be good or bad. I reckon we're as good a chance as anyone of taking it out.

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    10 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

    Im holding my opinion until  the Hawks result. Another in form team that is high on confidence. 

    Anything above a 5 goal win will reinforce form anything less I’ll defer another week. A loss, well, I don’t even want to consider atm. 

    I like it, I'm going to do the same. 

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    1 minute ago, Kozzie4PM said:

    It's football in 2023. So everything is overstated whether it be good or bad. I reckon we're as good a chance as anyone of taking it out.

    Yeah and to take it even further everything looks good when you remember it and everything looks bad when you remember it.

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    36 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

    it’s a game built on confidence and effort for them atm. They’re playing better now without those players than they were with them. McKay throws them out. Walsh has been out more than in and Cerra is good but no star. I’ll take our midfield over there’s. Put Cerra and Walsh in last night I think it stays the same game.

    Really? The first 5 minutes of the final quarter, that was the game, there and then. That was on our midfield. Not good enough. But these periods of go missing have been a constant of our season to date. Which is my point.

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    17 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

    Really? The first 5 minutes of the final quarter, that was the game, there and then. That was on our midfield. Not good enough. But these periods of go missing have been a constant of our season to date. Which is my point.

    The game is not on 2 centre clearances. Winning them can be down to the bounce of an oval shaped ball. I watched our defence withstand a withering start by a confident and pumped Carlton. I then watched an arm wrestle that in the end could have fallen either way. As I said I’d back us 95/100 to win that game. But you don’t win them all. Fritsch back is exactly what we need. I’ll back an undersized, mobile attack in good weather at the G. I’m a believer because we’re a bloody fantastic side. 
    it wasn’t the game because Salem, ANB and Petracca all just missed in the dying minutes. 

    Edited by Roost it far

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    No. History tells us that the ladder is a very good indicator of premiership credentials by August. It specifically tells us that finishing in the top 4 makes you 95% more likely to win the flag compared to other top 8 teams. We will finish top 4, hence we are in an excellent position. On top of that equation 2 of the other top 4 teams have very poor records at the MCG. So basically we are second favourites for the flag.

    But don’t just take my word for it. Shockingly there’s actually an independent industry filled with football mad people who wage money on what they see each week. They also have us second favourite.

    Hold your breath, because this might be hard to hear - we are a really good side, and have been since round 1 2021.

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    Listening to the First Crack crew it's all down to Gawn.  A crazy stat relating to his rating points.  Above 13.7 and basically we don't lose.  Less than that and we are basically 50/50.  Another stat relating to his score involvements.  If he has 5 or more a game we basically don't lose.  Only once this year he had less than 5 and we won - that was against Collingwood.

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    1 minute ago, Swooper1987 said:

    Listening to the First Crack crew it's all down to Gawn.  A crazy stat relating to his rating points.  Above 13.7 and basically we don't lose.  Less than that and we are basically 50/50.  Another stat relating to his score involvements.  If he has 5 or more a game we basically don't lose.  Only once this year he had less than 5 and we won - that was against Collingwood.

    I’m holding my breath for team selection this week. Grundy again this week will be a huge mistake for our forward mix.

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    2 minutes ago, Swooper1987 said:

    Listening to the First Crack crew it's all down to Gawn.  A crazy stat relating to his rating points.  Above 13.7 and basically we don't lose.  Less than that and we are basically 50/50.  Another stat relating to his score involvements.  If he has 5 or more a game we basically don't lose.  Only once this year he had less than 5 and we won - that was against Collingwood.

    It's never one thing...it really annoys me when people try and make complex things simple and simple things complex.

    We're a good team, sitting in a good position and as good a chance as any to win a flag.

    A much better position than last season eve though we were higher on the ladder, we're playing better football.

    ...but we'll all be more the wiser at 6pm on Sept 30.

    Until then enjoy the ride, it's been a good one to date.

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    13 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

    No. History tells us that the ladder is a very good indicator of premiership credentials by August. It specifically tells us that finishing in the top 4 makes you 95% more likely to win the flag compared to other top 8 teams. We will finish top 4, hence we are in an excellent position. On top of that equation 2 of the other top 4 teams have very poor records at the MCG. So basically we are second favourites for the flag.

    But don’t just take my word for it. Shockingly there’s actually an independent industry filled with football mad people who wage money on what they see each week. They also have us second favourite.

    Hold your breath, because this might be hard to hear - we are a really good side, and have been since round 1 2021.

    That’s true. However, since the new finals system, no team has won it from 4th. It’s the top 3 or nothing. Which means we need to win our last 2. A month ago our last 2 looked like a walk in the park, now both are danger games where if we don’t bring our A game we’ll fall short.

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    You can spin the results however you want.

    If you want to be positive, you'd argue that we dominated as much of the Brisbane game as they did, and overwhelmed a premiership contender. You'd argue that we withstood a frenzied Adelaide who has beaten Port twice, beaten Brisbane and challenged Collingwood. You'd argue that we withstood one of Richmond's best 3-4 games for the year, when they brought absolutely elite pressure, and managed to come back from 20 points down despite the crowd being pro-Richmond. 

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    24 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

    No. History tells us that the ladder is a very good indicator of premiership credentials by August. It specifically tells us that finishing in the top 4 makes you 95% more likely to win the flag compared to other top 8 teams. We will finish top 4, hence we are in an excellent position. On top of that equation 2 of the other top 4 teams have very poor records at the MCG. So basically we are second favourites for the flag.

    But don’t just take my word for it. Shockingly there’s actually an independent industry filled with football mad people who wage money on what they see each week. They also have us second favourite.

    Hold your breath, because this might be hard to hear - we are a really good side, and have been since round 1 2021.

    "We will finish top 4"

    Come again? Lose to hawthorn and it's over. We very rarely beat Sydney in Sydney. 

    It is literally our entire season on the line against the Hawks next Sunday. No two ways about it.

    Were you one of the crew in the Carlton pre game thread saying you couldn't conceive of how they could possibly beat us? Turned out well

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    Yes. Clearly. 

    We're doing enough to win games, as a side with a plethora of talent in their prime should be. 

    But our effort and application and skill execution during games is all over the place. 

    Edited by JimmyGadson

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    Just now, fr_ap said:

    "We will finish top 4"

    Come again? Lose to hawthorn and it's over. We very rarely beat Sydney in Sydney. 

    It is literally our entire season on the line against the Hawks next Sunday. No two ways about it.

    Were you one of the crew in the Carlton pre game thread saying you couldn't conceive of how they could possibly beat us? Turned out well

    That’s my worry. Lose to Hawks and that’s it. If we finish 5th it’s likely going to be:

    Crows at the G (50-50 really)

    Blues (or Collingwood) in a Semi at the G

    And if we win that, Port at Adelaide Oval.

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    11 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

    "We will finish top 4"

    Come again? Lose to hawthorn and it's over. We very rarely beat Sydney in Sydney. 

    It is literally our entire season on the line against the Hawks next Sunday. No two ways about it.

    Were you one of the crew in the Carlton pre game thread saying you couldn't conceive of how they could possibly beat us? Turned out well

    We've literally played Sydney in Sydney once in 6 years and we won. What made you say we rarely beat Sydney in Sydney?

    Edited by Kozzie4PM

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    2 minutes ago, Kozzie4PM said:

    We've literally played Sydney in Sydney once in 6 years and we won. What made you say we rarely beat Sydney in Sydney?

    Fear and Loathing

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    6 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

    That’s my worry. Lose to Hawks and that’s it. If we finish 5th it’s likely going to be:

    Crows at the G (50-50 really)

    Blues (or Collingwood) in a Semi at the G

    And if we win that, Port at Adelaide Oval.

    What chance do you give us of beating Hawthorn? And do you think we genuinely have no chance of beating Sydney?

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    4 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

    My worry is you lot.

    lose to the Hawks……FFS

    Yeh fmd. Fold like a deck of cards this lot.

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    13 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

    Yes. Clearly. 

    We're doing enough to win games, as a side with a plethora of talent in their prime should be. 

    But our effort and application and skill execution during games is all over the place. 

    Thank you. Three lines. That is all it took.

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    40 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

    Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems in football. 

    My problem is I've been trying too hard to recreate the wheel with these kinds of sayings and they really aren't taking.

    Really need to keep it simple.

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    A lot of people with wet pants in this thread. 

    When we were 42 points down in round 23 in 2021 in Geelong I turned the TV off and told my husband it’s been a great year but I’m off to bed. 


    Nek minnit

    image.jpeg.dd50380519e8b69739cc450435fb08a0.jpeg

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