PREGAME: Rd 22 vs Carlton

[Dee-monic 620]

1 hour ago, Deebauched said:

If we beat Carlton we have to go all out to win our last two games and finish 2nd.

We're not getting top spot. Pies wont lose their last 3 games. One win seals it for them and they play bog ordinary Essendon in last game.

I just hope we dont have to win our last game at the SCG Buddy Circus  to avoid finishing 3rd.

I'd take 4th right now and play wobbly Pies in the QF.

3rd place is a steaming pile of camel dung on a baren Gedrosian landscape.

The Pies are no certainties to beat Geelong tonight and the Lions next week. If they lose both games,  top spot will be up for grabs in the last round if we keep winning. Who would have thought that possible a few weeks ago?

[Demon17 5,047]

35 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Just to clarify, our percentage will only go up if our winning margins are such that our percentage in each game is higher than where we started.

Correct. As an example, if we kick 100 points tomorrow , we need to keep the Blues to 75 points, or less to mainatin or increase %.

Beating the Blues by a goal or two drops our %.  Not by a lot but thats the effect.

[Dee Zephyr 19,146]

@binman yesterday morning I saw we were $1.70. With a significant move we are into $1.57 currently. Do you think we will start even shorter?

 

[Roost it far 7,374]

11 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

@binman yesterday morning I saw we were $1.70. With a significant move we are into $1.57 currently. Do you think we will start even shorter?

 

Put your house on it

[old55 22,775]

Michael Hibberd, on 195 games and turns 34 next January.  He made it clear earlier in the year his goal is to get to 200 games.  He'll be sub tomorrow which will help but there's not a lot of runway left this season to get there.

[Jaded No More 67,626]

Some of these media questions.... 

Simon do you know Kosi is good in the midfield? Can you tell us what the game plan is for Saturday? 

FFS what an embarrassing lot! 

[Roost it far 7,374]

10 minutes ago, old55 said:

Michael Hibberd, on 195 games and turns 34 next January.  He made it clear earlier in the year his goal is to get to 200 games.  He'll be sub tomorrow which will help but there's not a lot of runway left this season to get there.

201 and a second medallion

[old55 22,775]

3 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Some of these media questions.... 

Simon do you know Kosi is good in the midfield? Can you tell us what the game plan is for Saturday? 

FFS what an embarrassing lot! 

"We've got a plan going in, but that may change in game" - Wait, what, surely not?

[Willmoy1947 3,957]

No bloody wonder, nobody from our team talks to the media...

[Dee-monic 620]

5 minutes ago, old55 said:

Michael Hibberd, on 195 games and turns 34 next January.  He made it clear earlier in the year his goal is to get to 200 games.  He'll be sub tomorrow which will help but there's not a lot of runway left this season to get there.

I know young guns McVee and Bowey have made the most of their opportunities, but in the presssure-cooker atmosphere  of finals I would find Hibberd's coolness and experience very reassuring. However, competition for places is never a bad sign.

[dazzledavey36 52,728]

I hate saying this because I've gone into the past month confident with each game of winning.

But I think I can see Carlton getting the win over us tomorrow. Their form from a general stats point of view has them right on top, and their numbers are similar to a premiership teams of the past.

This is more of a gut feel as well.

[censored] hope I'm wrong.....

[binman 41,942]

3 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

@binman yesterday morning I saw we were $1.70. With a significant move we are into $1.57 currently. Do you think we will start even shorter?

 

Wow, that is a massive drop in price a day out from the game (i just checked sb, and yep 1.57)

A week out that wouldn't be so remarkable because the pool would have been relatively small and any big bets would have an outsized impact on the market.

And it wouldn't be remarkable, though still relatively unusual, to drop  from 1.70 to 1.57 incrementally through the week with a steady flow of small and medium bets on the dees (which didn't occur - we opened and have stayed at - 1.70, which as i noted in the run home thread i thought was a touch overs - i thought 1.65 was about right).

But a drop from 1.70 to 1.57 the day before the game is huge - one of the biggest drops ive seen all season - because whilst the pool will still grow a bit, it would be near its peak now and so some serious money must have been dropped on the dees - most likely by a seriously big punter or punters (unlikely enough small punters like myself could move the dial like that). 

To answer your question, i very much doubt we will get any shorter. More likely we will go back out a touch, perhaps to the 1.65 i predicted. 

But given the amount of up and about blues fans who are likely backing their team (which i have stopped doing - except for flags, Brownlow's and norm smiths!) i'm guessing a big punters, or punters (or the bookies) might have some inside info and there might be a big out for the blues that has yet to be announced. 

If that's not the case then the big punters have really jumped into the dees because they agree with my assessment we were overs at 1.70

(we are the better team, have been playing at a higher level, have much fewer best 22 not available - and the blues form isn't as good as it looks from the win loss column - the Saints are average, the Pies looked flat as a tack, Port had seven outs and forget about the others)

Edited August 11, 2023 by binman

[Jaded No More 67,626]

28 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I hate saying this because I've gone into the past month confident with each game of winning.

But I think I can see Carlton getting the win over us tomorrow. Their form from a general stats point of view has them right on top, and their numbers are similar to a premiership teams of the past.

This is more of a gut feel as well.

[censored] hope I'm wrong.....

I’m not that confident either, but Carlton play like us in the sense that they’re a contest and defense first team. 
We have been doing it longer and better than they have so I hope we lift a gear and put them away. 
We certainly won’t be taking this game lightly and we should be in better physical shape as well. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,339]

3 hours ago, Deebauched said:

If we beat Carlton we have to go all out to win our last two games and finish 2nd.

We're not getting top spot. Pies wont lose their last 3 games. One win seals it for them and they play bog ordinary Essendon in last game.

I just hope we dont have to win our last game at the SCG Buddy Circus  to avoid finishing 3rd.

I'd take 4th right now and play wobbly Pies in the QF.

3rd place is a steaming pile of camel dung on a baren Gedrosian landscape.

There's a scenario which involves Collingwood finishing second and us finishing third. But that likely ends if Collingwood win tonight.

[MrFreeze 1,855]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

Michael Hibberd, on 195 games and turns 34 next January.  He made it clear earlier in the year his goal is to get to 200 games.  He'll be sub tomorrow which will help but there's not a lot of runway left this season to get there.

I have a feeling they're managing his and Smith minutes. Smith needs game time to keep match fit while we want Hibbo in the 1sts in some way for the rest of the year. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,339]

4 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

MCG expecting 70,000 tomorrow night, let's get loud.

That's a tremendous crowd if it happens considering we couldn't get 50K to our home Friday night game in round 12.

[Roost it far 7,374]

I think we’ll get a glimpse of our finals game tomorrow night and I’m pumped.

[Jaded No More 67,626]

24 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

There's a scenario which involves Collingwood finishing second and us finishing third. But that likely ends if Collingwood win tonight.

Brisbane finish 1st? 

Unlikely

[In Harmes Way 7,700]

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

Put your house on it

I’ll gamble responsibly and put your house on it 

[binman 41,942]

46 minutes ago, MrFreeze said:

I have a feeling they're managing his and Smith minutes. Smith needs game time to keep match fit while we want Hibbo in the 1sts in some way for the rest of the year. 

That's my take too.

On Hibbo, i reckon part of the thinking is also trying to reduce the risk of impact injury, which given the way he plays is always a risk, because Goody is dead keen to have him fit and raring to go come finals - which makes perfect sense becuase he is built for finals,

Very similar approach to how the Cats managed Danger last year (not dissimilar players in terms of their intensity and attack on the ball).

And with Smith, in addition to managing his minutes and keeping him match fit, it is very likely he is going to be designated sub come finals so it also makes sense to give him some really sold minutes down back to get used the defensive systems, build synergy with the other defenders and get good touch because he may have to come on early in games.

Edited August 11, 2023 by binman

[Deebauched 1,220]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

Michael Hibberd, on 195 games and turns 34 next January.  He made it clear earlier in the year his goal is to get to 200 games.  He'll be sub tomorrow which will help but there's not a lot of runway left this season to get there.

He'll need every inch of that runway.

Dees will likely play 6 more games. 7 is possible.

The key is... dont get injured!

[Jaded No More 67,626]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

That's my take too.

On Hibbo, i reckon part of the thinking is also trying to reduce the risk of impact injury, which given the way he plays is always a risk, because Goody is dead keen to have him fit and raring to go come finals - which makes perfect sense becuase he is built for finals,

Very similar approach to how the Cats managed Danger last year (not similar players in terms of their intensity and attack on the ball).

And with Smith, in addition to managing his minutes and keeping him match fit, it is very likely he is going to be designated sub come finals so it also makes sense to give him some really sold minutes down back to get used the defensive systems, build synergy with the other defenders and get good touch because he may have to come on early in games.

I agree with all that. I think Hibbo will play finals, and I fully support this. He is a calm head at ground level.

Also agree that Smith goes as sub in finals.

2 Questions:

1- Do we drop the extra mid in favour of another defensive forward eg- Spargo? and does that make Smith a risky sub option?

2- Do we go back to 3 tall defenders with Tomlinson coming in for Smith?

[Demonland 70,250]

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Some of these media questions.... 

Simon do you know Kosi is good in the midfield? Can you tell us what the game plan is for Saturday? 

FFS what an embarrassing lot! 

Almost every question was a gameplan question. They would have been better off trying to hack his computer.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,339]

42 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Brisbane finish 1st? 

Unlikely

Win/loss for the final 3 games that would see Brisbane finish first:

Bris 3-0

Melb 2-1

Coll 1-2

Port 2-1

Not overly likely, but not out of this earth unrealistic either.

[layzie 32,775]

3 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Just to clarify, our percentage will only go up if our winning margins are such that our percentage in each game is higher than where we started.

Thank you, a lot of people forget this. 

Keep opposition to low score first, margin second.