POSTGAME: Rd 16 vs GWS

[binman 43,762]

What is the prognosis on Fritter's injury? 

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,229]

1 minute ago, binman said:

What is the prognosis on Fritter's injury? 

Having scans today I think so guess we will know soon.

 

[SFebes 4,884]

20 minutes ago, binman said:

Fatigue is a moot point I reckon. 

And to he honest so is the connection and forward issues palaver.

Though it didn't help having three super talls in Brown, Grundy and gawn in such horrendous conditions. Or losing our best kick for goal early for that matter.

We didn't lose because of fatigue or game plan, structure, set up,  etc etc.

We lost that game away with our woeful kicking for goals. Again.

It really is a simple as that.

We dominated that game, and should have won it easliy.

We smashed them in every key stat, including shots for goal.

Twenty shots at goal in those conditions is fine. Particularly when the opposition could only manage 12.

The expected score of 77 -43 tells the tale.

A five goal win turned into a loss because we miss shots on goal we should make. 

Bottom line, we have too many poor kicks. Wet weather exacerbates that huge issue.

The winning goal by kelly was the perfect example of how good technique stands up under pressure and in terrible conditions.

And our ball handling skills are also a big worry, again exacerbated by wet weather. Even tracc fumbles way too often. 

 

So the "expected score" was 77 from our 73 entries and you say it wasn't connection, forward issues, game plan, structure or set up? I think there are a couple of you who need to have a spell tbh. 

[beelzebub 23,383]

3 minutes ago, SFebes said:

So the "expected score" was 77 from our 73 entries and you say it wasn't connection, forward issues, game plan, structure or set up? I think there are a couple of you who need to have a spell tbh. 

It's the Elephant eh  😉

[Jaded No More 68,974]

13 minutes ago, binman said:

What is the prognosis on Fritter's injury? 

According to @WalkingCivilWar it wasn’t sounding good yesterday. I guess we will know more today or tomorrow. 

[Mel Bourne 4,534]

19 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

I’m not overly impressed with any of them at the moment. I’m telling you he’s doing his job and the problems lie elsewhere. 
 

Let’s have a look where he sits in the league:

22 goals has him =31st overall for goal kicking, behind the following small forwards: Charlie Cameron (37), Rankine (30), Breust (28), Higgins (27), Papley (25), Walters (25). Walters has played same games as Kozzie (13), Bruest 1 more and the others 2 more. 

5.9 avg score involvements has him 52nd overall, 31st for forwards. Behind Rankine (7.0), Miers (6.93), Bolton (6.33), Rachele (6.13), Higgins & Papley (6.0). Ahead of C Cameron, Weightman, Rayner.

Tackles i50, his 29 is 2nd overall behind Shultz (31 in 2 more games)

Small forward output is a function of effort and opportunities, his effort is there, opportunities are limited by the lack of space to work in. 

I’m struggling to see how his occasional shirking of hard-ball-gets, poor positioning at contests and ridiculously-selfish leaps for glory translate as “doing his job”. I see it more as him doing the bare minimum. His tackle count is the most impressive stat out of all of those, and yes, it does indicate effort. But stats are deceiving. How many of those tackles have stuck? How many have resulted in a free kick? 
 

The problems do indeed lie elsewhere (and yesterday, practically everywhere) but his form is definitely one of the ingredients in the current soup of mediocrity we’ve been dishing up of late. 

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,229]

In a positive note I do need to give a shout out to McVee and Bowey. Along with Salem they are the smartest players in our side and the most skilled. We need the ball in these three guys hands as much as possible and potentially need one to play a bit further up the ground to give us some better looks going inside 50.

[adonski 12,429]

24 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

In a positive note I do need to give a shout out to McVee and Bowey. Along with Salem they are the smartest players in our side and the most skilled. We need the ball in these three guys hands as much as possible and potentially need one to play a bit further up the ground to give us some better looks going inside 50.

McMidfielder

Bring Howes in and chuck one of those guys on ball

Edited July 3, 2023 by adonski

[binman 43,762]

3 hours ago, SFebes said:

So the "expected score" was 77 from our 73 entries and you say it wasn't connection, forward issues, game plan, structure or set up? I think there are a couple of you who need to have a spell tbh. 

Look, if you are of a mind that we have 'connection' issues then yesterday provided a scratch for that itch.

But the conditions were appalling. And combined with our game plan of trapping in our forward half meant super congested forward zone, with it all but impossible to take contested marks and the ball living on the ground.

But that didn't hurt the giants I hear you say.

Well, our efficiency inside 50 for scores was 36% (26 shots  from 73 i50s). Acceptable in those conditions with the way we play.

The winners? They MUST have been more efficient right?

Well the giants were even less efficient going inside 50, with an efficiency of only 26% (12 shots from 46 i50s). 

Imagine the melts if we went at 26% efficiency for scores inside 50!

The difference was they kicked 7.5.

And we kicked 5.15.

That is the game right there. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by binman

[dice 712]

17 hours ago, Roost it far said:

So are we right in thinking Fritousky has a pretty serious injury?

Please not the dreaded syndesmosis

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,229]

3 minutes ago, binman said:

Look, if you are of a mind that we have 'connection' issues then yesterday provided a scratch for that itch.

But the conditions were appalling. And combined with our game plan of trapping in our forward half meant super congested forward zone, with it all bur impossible to tale contested marks and the ball living on the ground.

But that didn't hurt the giantsta I hear you say.

Well, our efficiency inside 50 for scores was 36% (26 shots  from 73 i50s). Acceptable in those conditions with the way we play.

The winners?

Well the giants were even less efficient going inside 50, with an efficiency of only 26% (12 shots  from 46 i50s). 

Imagine the melts if we went at 26% efficiency for scores inside 50!

The difference was they kicked 7.5.

And we kicked 5.15.

That is the game right there. 

I guess the best way to look at it is goals per i50, which was 6.85% to 15.22%.

So I agree with what you're saying and I actually think the issue is more our game style than connection.

Too much emphasis on forward half pressure.

[poita 3,902]

Can someone please explain to me what Joel Smith's role was yesterday (and in the second half against Geelong).

I'm not a fan of Smith, but I accept he has some traits that can be useful when he is let loose to lead up at the football, and provide some defensive pressure.

But I don't see the value in him standing ten metres behind an intercepting defender (Haynes and Stewart in that period), providing zero physical presence or doing anything other than moving up to stand the mark. Do we imagine because it is wet that Haynes is going to drop an uncontested mark and that the ball is somehow going to land in Smith's arms? Because if so, that is the dumbest thing since I've seen for a long time (well at least since we lined up with three midgets across half forward last week, and our marking targets another kick away).

[poita 3,902]

10 minutes ago, binman said:

Well, our efficiency inside 50 for scores was 36% (26 shots  from 73 i50s). Acceptable in those conditions with the way we play.

Well the giants were even less efficient going inside 50, with an efficiency of only 26% (12 shots  from 46 i50s). 

Imagine the melts if we went at 26% efficiency for scores inside 50!

 

Except we had 20 scores from 73 i50s, at 27%, so not sure what point you are trying to make. Most people would suggest that 5 goals from 73 i50s at 6.8% is slightly less than optimal, even playing blindfolded on an ice field.

[Boots and all 1,000]

35 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

In a positive note I do need to give a shout out to McVee and Bowey. Along with Salem they are the smartest players in our side and the most skilled. We need the ball in these three guys hands as much as possible and potentially need one to play a bit further up the ground to give us some better looks going inside 50.

A few questions to DL...Would a run on the wing suit Bowey/McVee? Do they have the tank? Could Hunter or Langdon do with a rest? It might be worth a roll of the dice.

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,229]

The thing that is confusing me is our game style/method in first 6-8 weeks is very different to what we are doing now.

We were focusing more on transition from half back, whereas we have lately been focused on a high press and locking it in forward. This then leads to 30 players all running around in our forward 50 and just constant hack kicks.

Both Geelong and GWS beat us the exact same way, wait until we tire and then get us on counter attack.

Our best ball users are all in the backline, so we have no issue getting it to the halfway point, but that's when things fall apart. Viney, Sparrow, Trac, Langdon and Hunter are all butchers of the pill. It's a simple as that. Until we sacrifice one of these guys with a silkier ball user, who may only get 15-20 touches but his high impact we won't be troubling anyone.

[Adam The God 30,411]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Don’t lump me in with others who perhaps approach the topic with “shallow” analysis. I’ve done my best to post my views in detail and with reference to the same material that is used to argue we must necessarily have engaged in a heavy loading phase over the last few weeks.

It feels to me as though you are reasoning backwards. Your subsequent post to this one takes our last 5 scores and says “look at these low scores, that clearly shows we are fatigued”. There’s a link missing in between.

As I’ve said before, I fully accept that we carefully structure our training loads week to week. What I don’t presently accept is that we’ve engaged in a loading block to such an extent that it significantly explains our poor performances of late. 

In your view, is it consistent with loading/fatigue as a significant factor that we dominated time in possession, CPs, clearances, time in forward half, forward half turnovers, and scoring shots?

When I said “it’s not loading”, I meant it. Our biggest issue right now isn’t loading. It’s how we choose to structure and play. 

Well, what I'd say is accuracy is our biggest issue right now. As you imply, we're doing enough to win CP, stoppage and territory, but given the amount of work to maintain territory and win the contest, by the time we get it inside 50, we're failing to get the job done.

I agree that there are coaching things we could do to potentially see a higher amount of scores scored against us, but also maximise our scoring potential. For example, relax our press to centre wing, be prepared to expose our defence more, to enable space in behind the middle of the turnover and maybe even shift Bowey forward, Hibbo back, Spargo forward and drop Smith for BB and JVR.

But I don't necessarily see it as an overall game plan problem (it's a few tweaks), because we're generating enough scores to win every week, so our contest game is good (minus Clarry). We're just failing to execute in the forward half. As the expected scores had us winning yesterday easily. 

To answer your question, I'd say this. Either we're not AFL standard (dropping to second last for accuracy over the last 5 week stretch) or we are (as evidenced by our extreme accuracy earlier in the year) and there has to be a key factor why our accuracy has plummeted so significantly. IMV, it's more likely that the ability to win the ball is less taxing than finishing off our work. And this may well, I think most agree with this, be exacerbated by poor kicking technique for goal.

It's never ever as simple as one thing and I don't believe anyone has ever stated it as such, but there are interlinking factors and fatigue is no doubt one of them IMO.

Edited July 3, 2023 by A F

[Adam The God 30,411]

2 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

If fatigue was a factor surely it applies to both sides? But watching yesterdays game I’m not sure how anyone can think we’re physically fatigued. 

I've this said ad nauseam though. It does apply to both sides. We're failing to get it done.

But to throw the game plan out, the coach out, the players out, is missing the point. It's one of many explanations why our goal kicking has fallen off a cliff.

[Dee*ceiving 1,690]

2 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

I'm sorry but it's just a nonsense. 

The psychology of 'trying to hard' when you're losing and getting desperate and the Melbourne 'red myst' thing that we revert to is much more relevant to our inaccuracy. Not fatigue. 

The fatigue argument just doesn't fly. You can't be winning almost every stat line against opponents but losing games and putting that down to mainly fatigue. A fatigued side is not dominating stat lines. 

There are 10 things I'd list as problems before bringing fatigue into the conversation. 

We have been losing the same way for over a year. Longer even. If you actually averted your attention, you'd see the problem areas that most see. And you'd realise that fatigue is always present in varying degrees across seasons. And it simply doesn't need the kind of microscopic looking over that you continue to give it. 

This is a game plan, list and personnel issue. It is as simple as that. 

 

I think you're onto it Jimmy. Fatigue always a factor but shouldn't be moreso for us than other clubs over the full duration of the season. We've got 8 games to see how/if that averages out. 

Realistically, the game plan is our biggest problem. The front half turnover game plan can and has worked. Particularly on a fast deck, thank you for Perth finals in 2021.

On a wet deck repeat entries lead to a persistently clogged and sloppy forwardline resulting in multiple fumbles,  lots of tackles, ratty shots on goal and defensive rebounds where opposition teams have 1 on 1s forward of centre on the rare occassion they manage to gather the quick clearing kick from their D50. 

Regarding personnel, comparing to 2021 the forward line stands out as having gone backwards, considerably. If you break it down it's glaring...

• 2021 Brown > 2023 Brown 
• 2021 McDonald > 2023 McDonald 
• 2021 ANB > 2023 ANB 
• 2021 Spargo > 2023 Spargo 
• 2021 Gawn > 2023 Gawn 
• 2021 Melksham > 2023 Melksham

Fritsch and Pickett you could argue are the same or possibly slightly better than they were in 2021. 

Since then we've added Chandler & JVR. Chandler is a work in progress at best and JVR has potential but isn't yet up to the class of 2021  McDonald or Brown. 

What's kept us in the positive is that since 2021 our backline has actually improved, this year markedly thanks to Judd McVee and improved output from Salem, Lever and more recently May. 

Sadly this is slipping through our fingers. Those players listed are unlikely to reach their 2021 form again (save Spargo, maybe). If that's true our best hope is some strategic tweaks whether positional or system. 

A fit Clarrie will be a big boost, but unfortunately there are no pots of gold at Casey. 

[markT 21]

57 minutes ago, binman said:

Fatigue is a moot point I reckon. 

And to he honest so is the connection and forward issues palaver.

Though it didn't help having three super talls in Brown, Grundy and gawn in such horrendous conditions. Or losing our best kick for goal early for that matter.

We didn't lose because of fatigue or game plan, structure, set up,  etc etc.

We lost that game away with our woeful kicking for goals. Again.

It really is a simple as that.

We dominated that game, and should have won it easliy.

We smashed them in every key stat, including shots for goal.

Twenty shots at goal in those conditions is fine. Particularly when the opposition could only manage 12.

The expected score of 77 -43 tells the tale.

A five goal win turned into a loss because we miss shots on goal we should make. 

Bottom line, we have too many poor kicks. Wet weather exacerbates that huge issue.

The winning goal by kelly was the perfect example of how good technique stands up under pressure and in terrible conditions.

And our ball handling skills are also a big worry, again exacerbated by wet weather. Even tracc fumbles way too often. 

 

Binman, most people in this forum respect your analysis and views and what you say here is 100% correct IMO.  But the question facing us now is how do we fix it? Just rotating personnel through our forward line until we stumble onto some connection there seems a purile response to a very real problem that last year saw us exit finals in straight sets. Only 2 of our goals yesterday came from our permanent forwards the others coming from bowey (backman) grundy(ruck) and langdon (wing). That is clearly not a return thats going to win us games.  Yes, it didn't help that our most reliable goal kicker was subbed off early in the first quarter but he is only one player and if you disregard his behind only 6 of the 20 shots we had on goal came from our genuine forwards in Chandler,Picket ANB,Smith and BBB. It seems to me that the problem is not just inaccurate kicking but also how many quality looks our forwards are actually getting at the goals.  I dont believe BBB was part of the problem yesterday. It was not a day for big forwards and Hogan didnt get on the scoreboard at all at the other end. But it was perfect conditions for the smalls and with 73 inside 50 they clearly under performed.

 

[Adam The God 30,411]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

If you cant see a connection issue, our utterly clueless fwd set ups and  a return to down. the line bomb it to the fwd pocket then I can't help you.

We had 20 scoring shots in the wet. That's not a connection issue...

I don't love our forward set ups. I'd change them.

I've posted at length over the last few weeks about what I believe is our ball movement shift during the middle parts of the season, three years running now.

We change our ball movement during the middle winter months when fatigue becomes an issue, because we play the percentages and it keeps us within reach. We did it in 2021 as well. The difference is that year, we didn't drop the games we've dropped the last few weeks. So we need to be better.

As I've mentioned in this thread, I'd be relaxing our press, shifting it to the middle of the ground (see our game against Collingwood) and trying to allow space in behind turnovers that we can create in the middle of the ground.

And to be clear, I don't think May is anywhere near the player he was in 2021, neither is Lever. But particularly May, who is a liability when the ball hits the deck.

If we can't win 1v1s or ground balls behind the ball, it doesn't matter what tweaks or adjustments we make to the game style. We need May and Lever to lift and hold their marks, and also get it done on the ground.

Petty back helps this, but I want to see some continuity with that set up now. I hope we don't shift Petty forward again to cover Fritta. We need to go BB and JVR, play Smith if you want, but then Kozzy, Chandler and I think Spargo. 

I'd also play Grundy as a more permanent forward or try something unusual like playing him on the ball when Max rucks.

[binman 43,762]

34 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I guess the best way to look at it is goals per i50, which was 6.85% to 15.22%.

So I agree with what you're saying and I actually think the issue is more our game style than connection.

Too much emphasis on forward half pressure.

Yep, they have more skilled players. And like highly skilled players do, they take their chances

Nor sure i agree, but that is a completely valid question about our game plan.

But one thing we can say with certainty, given the overwhelming evidence, is it doesn't hold up in wet conditions.

On the conditions, I'm glad we only had one injury. The ground was giving way and shifting all over the ground. Perfect conditions for knee injuries.

[Fromgotowoewodin 1,606]

1 hour ago, Mel Bourne said:

I’m struggling to see how his occasional shirking of hard-ball-gets, poor positioning at contests and ridiculously-selfish leaps for glory translate as “doing his job”. I see it more as him doing the bare minimum. His tackle count is the most impressive stat out of all of those, and yes, it does indicate effort. But stats are deceiving. How many of those tackles have stuck? How many have resulted in a free kick? 
 

The problems do indeed lie elsewhere (and yesterday, practically everywhere) but his form is definitely one of the ingredients in the current soup of mediocrity we’ve been dishing up of late. 

No hard ball gets? 19 possessions yesterday 9 contested, 10 uncontested. 5 tackles, behind only Viney for us.

How many have stuck? The ones that get counted. 
 

How many have resulted in free kicks? Could probably look that up somewhere but I dunno. 2 frees for yesterday. 
 

1.2 yesterday, only player with more scores was Trac with 0.4. Kozzie had 1 assist and 6 score involvements. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Fromgotowoewodin

[binman 43,762]

19 minutes ago, markT said:

 But it was perfect conditions for the smalls and with 73 inside 50 they clearly under performed.

 

That's a fair point - though it's worth noting their smalls didnt do any damage either. 

And the reality is we don't have any small forwards ready to play seniors at Casey.

But if koz kicks 2.1 like Greene did from hid three shots, instead of 1.2, we win the game.

Tbe swans have some terrific smalls and medium forwards. Didn't help them kick accurately in their draw with the cats - a game also played in the wet and one they too should have won easliy.

Edited July 3, 2023 by binman

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,229]

I think Nick Watson is a must get for us.

We need to add more class to our forward line.

I hope we can get two top 10 picks and go hard at the draft again this year.

[Roost it far 8,595]

I suggest the club win this week and win well. A dry, fast deck with no wind. What more could we want? I’ll take the loading reasoning to a point. What happened in Alice was embarrassing. Clearly we couldn’t kick a goal and our forward half was 30 players full most of the time. Rather than bomb it long you need to pick it apart kick by kick just 4 or 5 times for a goal and you win the match easily. Where were the cool heads? What were the coaches doing? Why can’t ANB hit up a 15m pass at pace? People yell at Kozzie, FFS, he’s not there to bash his body into packs and he needs just a little space to work in. Give it to him. Get the forwards leading out to the wings, it’s not that hard with our list to beat GWS, we couldn’t do it and it wasn’t all because we didn’t kick straight. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Roost it far