The Run Home

[layzie 29,742]

On The Round So Far they talked about the 'fixturing free kick' that has Melbourne doubling up against either West Coast, North or Hawthorn equal most. 

You really gotta love it how mid year these same people said we had the second hardest run home.. 

[Binmans PA 26,490]

48 minutes ago, layzie said:

On The Round So Far they talked about the 'fixturing free kick' that has Melbourne doubling up against either West Coast, North or Hawthorn equal most. 

You really gotta love it how mid year these same people said we had the second hardest run home.. 

And was there any such commentary last year on Geelong's run home...? 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

1 hour ago, layzie said:

On The Round So Far they talked about the 'fixturing free kick' that has Melbourne doubling up against either West Coast, North or Hawthorn equal most. 

You really gotta love it how mid year these same people said we had the second hardest run home.. 

It p***ed me off when I saw that. No mention of the fact that Geelong were gifted 4 games last year when they had 2 games (out of the 5 teams they played twice) against both North  Melbourne & West Coast (and they officially finished 4th in 2021, we finished 5th in 2022). I don't recall any media pundit mentioning last year the fixturing disadvantage for Melbourne when the 'bottom' team Melbourne played twice was Collingwood who finished 17th in 2021.

What about the fact 6 teams got to play West Coast twice this year (who are no doubt the worst team in the comp despite today's win). Melbourne wasn't one of them. Basically they chose the bottom 3 teams for the comparison because that supported the narrative. If they's chosen the bottom 1, 2 or 4 it wouldn't have. 

I actually don't mind TRSF generally but Kane Cornes occasionally tosses off assertions and presents them as facts. This week was his statement that Essendon would have beaten the Swans if the game went for another minute. Obviously he's a clairvoyant!

Edited July 30, 2023 by Sydney_Demon

[BDA 20,620]

Port are going backwards and have 2 tough games coming up. Lions are flaky as well. We'll finish second even if we drop a game i reckon. My preference is Port in a QF at the G. We'd maul them. 

[Roost it far 6,240]

1 hour ago, BDA said:

Port are going backwards and have 2 tough games coming up. Lions are flaky as well. We'll finish second even if we drop a game i reckon. My preference is Port in a QF at the G. We'd maul them. 

That’s my dream QF, then have the Pies in the big dance. BANG

[layzie 29,742]

7 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

It p***ed me off when I saw that. No mention of the fact that Geelong were gifted 4 games last year when they had 2 games (out of the 5 teams they played twice) against both North  Melbourne & West Coast (and they officially finished 4th in 2021, we finished 5th in 2022). I don't recall any media pundit mentioning last year the fixturing disadvantage for Melbourne when the 'bottom' team Melbourne played twice was Collingwood who finished 17th in 2021.

What about the fact 6 teams got to play West Coast twice this year (who are no doubt the worst team in the comp despite today's win). Melbourne wasn't one of them. Basically they chose the bottom 3 teams for the comparison because that supported the narrative. If they's chosen the bottom 1, 2 or 4 it wouldn't have. 

I actually don't mind TRSF generally but Kane Cornes occasionally tosses off assertions and presents them as facts. This week was his statement that Essendon would have beaten the Swans if the game went for another minute. Obviously he's a clairvoyant!

It was such an end of show closing click bait bit. Love how they don't mention the other free kick of having to go down to Geelong every single year. 

[titan_uranus 22,751]

6 minutes ago, layzie said:

It was such an end of show closing click bait bit. Love how they don't mention the other free kick of having to go down to Geelong every single year. 

We also have double ups against Brisbane, as well as Richmond, Carlton, and Sydney, those three all in the final 5 weeks when all are pushing for finals and at least one (Carlton), if not two, are going to make finals. 

[leave it to deever 16,165]

8 hours ago, A F said:

And was there any such commentary last year on Geelong's run home...? 

Not to mention travelling eight times and the usual trip to Kardinia that most vic clubs avoid all the time. We must be doing something right.

[Binmans PA 26,490]

23 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Not to mention travelling eight times and the usual trip to Kardinia that most vic clubs avoid all the time. We must be doing something right.

And 5 interstate trips in our first 10 games.

It's a [censored] disgrace that our run home is being talked about in those terms. We had the hardest first half of the draw than anyone, which is why remaining in the top 4 all of that time, but our game not necessarily humming was always a good sign.

[Gawndy the Great 7,693]

There is definitely some '21 vibes about us, however it also has a new look about it - maybe a sprinkle of our 2018 ball movement and offence. It seems that we are able to switch between the two different modes, which i think come finals is going to prove very useful. 

I'm still a healthy sceptic and don't think we are flag favourites just yet - you cannot deny what Collingwood have done and they are rightful favourites. The next 4 games will be a great indicator. Win 4/4 and i think at worst we'd be equal favourites with Collingwood.

I have a watch on the other top 3. Both Pies and Port looked quite vulnerable and fatigued. The Lions without Ashcroft surely cannot be that bad - he is a 1st year player. So the next few weeks will be interesting to watch what these teams do. 

The Freo, Port and GWS games we lost, could have so easily gone the other way and had they, we would be challenging for 1st spot. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

1 hour ago, A F said:

And 5 interstate trips in our first 10 games.

It's a [censored] disgrace that our run home is being talked about in those terms. We had the hardest first half of the draw than anyone, which is why remaining in the top 4 all of that time, but our game not necessarily humming was always a good sign.

It's swings and roundabouts. The 6 teams we play(ed) twice this year are/were Sydney (2nd in 2022), Brisbane (4th), Richmond (7th), Carlton (9th), Hawthorn (13th) & North Melbourne (bottom). So we only played West Coast once. Some sides improve, some times go backwards. At the start of the season we were only allocated 4 games against the bottom 3 sides (in fact 6 against the bottom 5!), and now it's ended up being 5 against the bottom 3. No story here.

And as has been pointed out by me and others, whenever we play only one game against Geelong it's always at GMHBA. And we give up a home game every year to play in Alice Springs and it's always against an interstate club that we would prefer to play at the MCG (why can't Alice Springs be against a Victorian Club where the loss of MCG Home Advantage would not be so significant?). 

[Wodjathefirst 2,420]

On 7/30/2023 at 11:55 AM, binman said:

Fair enough if that is what you think - we all have our opinions.

But what that particular opinion tells me is we are miles apart in our assessment of where the dees are at.

We'll know who is right in five games time. 

The problem with being an optimist as opposed to a pessimist is that the odds are stacked against you.  An optimist has a one in 18 chance of ‘proving’ that they were right, a pessimist has 17 chances.

Even from a more realistic perspective, come finals it’s a one in eight chance of being right, and even from a top four perspective a one in four chance.

Lesson in all this, always bet against an optimist, the odds are in your favour.

From a me perspective I like to think of myself as a realist who  has a cautious optimistic edge to it.  In 2021 from mid way through the season I made an assessment that all things going well we were ‘serious contenders’. I upped my membership to get a guaranteed GF ticket and I ended up being lucky.

in 2022 all year the most I could feel about the Dees was that at best we were just contenders.  It’s been well documented, things went against us all season. There is always an element of luck (particularly with injuries) in winning GF’s.

This year I am beginning to feel shades of 2021 reappearing. We right now at the very least are contenders. If (when) we put Carlton away in a couple of weeks I will most certainly start believing that we, all things going well are once again serious contenders.

However, the odds will still be in favour of the pessimists. In the meantime I will enjoy being an optimist and enjoy (and stress) watching us play.  It is a lot more fun that way. GO DEES!!

Edited July 31, 2023 by Wodjathefirst
Typo

[Jaded No More 59,097]

The thought of barracking for Geelong this week makes me physically ill.

What a conflict of interest this game has become! 

[old55 21,634]

Carlton is playing very well but I think the good thing about having them to come, is that they play a similar style to us but we're better at it.  It's a different proposition against Collingwood, Brisbane and Adelaide where it's two different systems pitted against each other.

[DubDee 21,263]

We are odds on to finish 2nd the way things are playing out

would be a fantastic result and would mean no travel

[Binmans PA 26,490]

Buddy has just announced his retirement. I was worried we'd be playing Sydney at the SCG in his final game. That won't be the case now. A sad way for a champion of the game to go out, but very handy for us in Round 24.

This paired with the luck of competitors starting to falter around us, we look to be timing everything beautifully. Let's hope we get Clarry and Sparrow back this week.

Edited July 31, 2023 by A F

[In Harmes Way 7,613]

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

The thought of barracking for Geelong this week makes me physically ill.

What a conflict of interest this game has become! 

Nah - Geelong win, we're past Port on the ladder and Geelong still in trouble with games to come v Pies, Saints and Dogs. Geelong lose and I reckon the Giants will knock Port off the next week so likely a win-win scenario anyway. 

[binman 39,083]

4 hours ago, Wodjathefirst said:

The problem with being an optimist as opposed to a pessimist is that the odds are stacked against you.  An optimist has a one in 18 chance of ‘proving’ that they were right, a pessimist has 17 chances.

Even from a more realistic perspective, come finals it’s a one in eight chance of being right, and even from a top four perspective a one in four chance.

Lesson in all this, always bet against an optimist, the odds are in your favour.

From a me perspective I like to think of myself as a realist who  has a cautious optimistic edge to it.  In 2021 from mid way through the season I made an assessment that all things going well we were ‘serious contenders’. I upped my membership to get a guaranteed GF ticket and I ended up being lucky.

in 2022 all year the most I could feel about the Dees was that at best we were just contenders.  It’s been well documented, things went against us all season. There is always an element of luck (particularly with injuries) in winning GF’s.

This year I am beginning to feel shades of 2021 reappearing. We right now at the very least are contenders. If (when) we put Carlton away in a couple of weeks I will most certainly start believing that we, all things going well are once again serious contenders.

However, the odds will still be I favour of the pessimists. In the meantime I will enjoy being an optimist and enjoy (and stress) watching us play.  It is a lot more fun that way. GO DEES!!

Agree with all of that.

One thing i find annoying in being labeled an optimist on DL, as it relates to my football analysis and predictions, is that it is often used as a pejorative.

And it is also sometimes used in the context of dismissing my perspective - like the use of the word but before going on to make some point - eg i hear what you are saying, but.....

Whilst i def skew towards optimism as a general rule, i would describe myself in terms of footy analysis exactly the same as you - a realist with a cautious optimistic edge.

As an example, some time back - aprox mid season during our form slump - i posted that if i was framing a betting market i would have us as $5.50 favs and the pies (who i said then, and still maintain, are ridiculously short) and lions as equal second favs at $6.50.

At that point we were $8 to win the flag. My prediction could easily have been dismissed as being 'optimistic' (and IIRC was by some).

But i'm a hard nosed punter, and in my opinion $5.50 was realistic and reflected the 'true odds' (nb: there are two fundamental skills of punting - being good at assessing the 'true odds' of an event happening and getting the staking right) because i was factoring the fact our drop in form was load related and that we would follow a similar pattern as previous years and see a dramatic improvement in form as we neared finals.

In other words, like any decent punter (or analyst for that matter), i used multiple data points to inform my assessment, including form and historical patterns. That is being realistic. 

My mid season assessment of where we were at relative to the rest of the competition was not shared by the majority of posters (and perhaps dismissed by some as an example of me being blindly optimistic)

We are currently $5 to win the flag (which means the market gives us a 25% chance of winning the flag), and as sure as night follows day most pundits (most of whom had us behind the pies, port and the lions) are now saying we are in their top 2 chances.

So my assessment, far from being overly optimistic, has proven very realistic.

I would argue that many people who think of themselves as realists when it comes to assessing where the dees are in fact anything but.

I wonder if their pessimism is perhaps a form of self protection (hard to get disappointed if we don't win flag if you think there is no chance we will). 

Edited July 31, 2023 by binman

[Jaded No More 59,097]

Panic Alert: David King has us second in line for the flag. 

We are stuffed. 

Edited July 31, 2023 by Jaded No More

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,946]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

We are odds on to finish 2nd the way things are playing out

would be a fantastic result and would mean no travel

Agreed, getting Port at the G is very very ideal

[Deebauched 1,219]

2 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Agreed, getting Port at the G is very very ideal

We have to be careful not to get lumbered with 3rd spot and travel to Adelaide or the  Gabba.

More than happy finishing 4th. Double chance and MCG .

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,946]

36 minutes ago, Deebauched said:

More than happy finishing 4th. Double chance and MCG .

That can mean Gabba prelim

[In Harmes Way 7,613]

Looking at Brisbane and Port remaining games, I reckon we need to win 3 of the last 4 to finish 2nd. I think all three of Port, Brisbane and us will finish level on points, but we should improve our % sufficiently playing Kangaroos and Hawks to take 2nd.

I hope we beat Carlton because I'm less confident with how we play the SCG.

[binman 39,083]

8 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

Looking at Brisbane and Port remaining games, I reckon we need to win 3 of the last 4 to finish 2nd. I think all three of Port, Brisbane and us will finish level on points, but we should improve our % sufficiently playing Kangaroos and Hawks to take 2nd.

I hope we beat Carlton because I'm less confident with how we play the SCG.

I think we need to win all four as Port will be deserved favs to beat gws at home.

 

[Roost it far 6,240]

We’ll win all 4, Buddy’s retirement has switched me from a Swans loss to a Dee’s win