POSTGAME: Rd 03 vs Sydney

[layzie 32,854]

12 hours ago, deanox said:

I'm going to counter by suggesting that Goodwin has always been innovative and flexible, but he is also an astute judge of whether the flexibility would work.

It's possible that the type of flexibility punters were calling for would have caused worse results!

The times when he was called "inflexible" have been when we've had key players injured or out of form and he was inflexible for "not bringing in players players from Casey". Maybe he made judgements that an injured Gawn is a better option than a bball rookie, or an out of form TMac was more likely to find form than a first year undersized kid.

 

Other times he's been called inflexible have been when he sticks with a game plan the players have learnt for 3 years, hoping that the work with pay off, instead of throwing it out and hoping they'll catch on to something new in a single week. 

 

What some people call inflexible or stubborn, others might call pragmatic, realistic and risk based.

In a game of percentages at the elite level, Hail Mary's rarely pay off 

And that's why none of us are AFL coaches!

[Jaded No More 67,648]

6 hours ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Spargo was very efficient, but does he know how to smile?

Confirmed. Smile detected on final siren in 2021 grand final. He saves his smiles only for big games. 

[MoeSyzlak 650]

13 hours ago, Stiff Arm said:

Picking one game as a valid sample size? Computer says no

Your knowledge of balanced stat comparison is a lot worse than your ability to hide a bit of Weid bashing

One game of JVR is the only sample size that exists genius. And when looking at a max value like this, a sample size isn’t as relevant as the stat is looking at career highs. I’ve done plenty of post grad study in statistics, if you can’t see how replacing a low tackle count in F50 with a higher one is relevant to sundays game then I can’t explain it to you. It’s not Weid bashing, they’re facts.

Hope Weid reads your post though and notices you stood up for him. 

[durango 1,989]

For JVR this was a good beginning but he needs to follow this game up for 20 rounds plus finals.

I liked his game but we should not expect him to be a clone of Schwarz or Neitz at this stage, since the bash and crash nature of the game may take a physical toll on this young man.

The MFC got it right with his development in not rushing him into the team like they did with Jack Watts.

I hope he has a long and successful career at the MFC studded with premiership medals, AA's, Best and fairest, Brownlow and good results in the Coleman.

[jnrmac 19,893]

15 hours ago, John Demonic said:

 

Don't they have dentists in Tassie?

[jnrmac 19,893]

14 hours ago, deanox said:

I'm going to counter by suggesting that Goodwin has always been innovative and flexible, but he is also an astute judge of whether the flexibility would work.

It's possible that the type of flexibility punters were calling for would have caused worse results!

The times when he was called "inflexible" have been when we've had key players injured or out of form and he was inflexible for "not bringing in players players from Casey". Maybe he made judgements that an injured Gawn is a better option than a bball rookie, or an out of form TMac was more likely to find form than a first year undersized kid.

 

Other times he's been called inflexible have been when he sticks with a game plan the players have learnt for 3 years, hoping that the work with pay off, instead of throwing it out and hoping they'll catch on to something new in a single week. 

 

What some people call inflexible or stubborn, others might call pragmatic, realistic and risk based.

In a game of percentages at the elite level, Hail Mary's rarely pay off 

I am always intrigued by whether a coach is better off having his team play 'their' way or whether they should try to nullilfy the opponents game plan. I suspect the better you get the more you set out to play your own way.

But I saw a flexibility this week that I have seen before. ie Petty on McCartin, dropping TMac (and Harmes?), sticking with Bowey, McVee and blooding JVR. Also Riv in centre bounces for a time plus our mixing up of fwd entries.

And our set shot kicking - a huge pre-season focus - was something to behold.

[Neil Crompton 5,311]

14 hours ago, binman said:

Could not agree more deanox.

I can't believe how many DL posters have bought into the false narrtiave that goody is 'stubborn', not innovative and is inflexible.

Don't even get me started on Goody has his favorites, or (insert player here) must have incrinimating photos palaver (yes i know that is supposed to be a joke - but it is a joke that aims to make a particular point)

There are are number of examples of his innvation and flexibilty, inlcuding, but not limited to:

• his innovative diamond structure in 2017
• to the ultra fast, wave running ball movement in 2018 (not unlike everyobe scurrent darlngs, the pies)
• His use of players running off the half back at cetre bounces in 2018
• The shifytin 2019 to developing a cutting edge zone defence thta has become the foundation of our game (he persisted with this in the face of his critics and the losses we endured that year)
• His embrace of the Burgess philosophy to preparation and the reulting focus on ultra fitness (which, for exmaple the Cats openly said they copied last year)  
• The way we control momentum - our ability to score multiple goals in a short space of time is clealry not a happy accident; as they like to say in the dstates, it is a feature not a bug (irds worh noting that this ability to score quickly can be connected back to our scoring power in 2018
• His use of two ruckman - remmber the falck he copped for recriting pruess?
• Coaching from the bench
• His selction of Bowey in 2021
• Chasing and gettng Grunby
• The tweaks to our game plan this season
• I could go on, but you gte the drift

Binny, you have to re-read your posts before pressing submit. Please.

[layzie 32,854]

Servers are down in the office, already helped clean out the warehouse for 3 hours so all I can do now is spend more time thinking about how good that win was.

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

3 hours ago, MoeSyzlak said:

One game of JVR is the only sample size that exists genius. And when looking at a max value like this, a sample size isn’t as relevant as the stat is looking at career highs. I’ve done plenty of post grad study in statistics, if you can’t see how replacing a low tackle count in F50 with a higher one is relevant to sundays game then I can’t explain it to you. It’s not Weid bashing, they’re facts.

Hope Weid reads your post though and notices you stood up for him. 

Name calling and then boasting about one's education level = fail!

I'd totally agree with you after JVR reaches the equivalent of 61 games. Comparing one game to 61 is poor stats, regardless of what's available. Don't need a masters to work that out!

Over and out

[durango 1,989]

I watched the replay and thought that Judd McVee was very good and is progressing nicely towards a very good AFL player.

He seem to be gaining confidence with every game and now takes the game on when he has the opportunity, before the season I bet no one could have imagined his improvement to this stage.

Both JVR and Judd will now play in their home state in front of family and friends.

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,283]

20 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Does anyone know the Expected Score yesterday?

It always feels great when we kick straight but there is always an element of luck.

We had 33 shots from 60 inside 50s compared to Sydney 29 shots from 52 inside 50s.

I think when you look at these stats the more important aspect is where the shots are coming from.

I felt like we got a lot more shots from around 30m out and not deep in pockets.

If you can get more shots from this area you are inevitably going to kick at a higher accuracy. Similarly, if you force the opposition wide they will generally have a lower accuracy.

[Fat Tony 5,082]

6 minutes ago, Action Jackson said:

I think when you look at these stats the more important aspect is where the shots are coming from.

I felt like we got a lot more shots from around 30m out and not deep in pockets.

If you can get more shots from this area you are inevitably going to kick at a higher accuracy. Similarly, if you force the opposition wide they will generally have a lower accuracy.

Expected Score takes the distance and angle into account and compares to AFL averages. The number of shots at goal and the quality of the shots are the best indicator as to how well you have played/the system is working. The actual scoreboard is subject to the vagaries of goal kicking accuracy.

[D4Life 2,405]

On 4/3/2023 at 11:15 AM, binman said:

It's an interesting one.

They backed themselves in that they could control Sydney's three talls yesterday without a third tall defender. 

I reckon a big part of that calculation was Franklin is shell of the player he was in his prime, particularly at the moment coming off some injury interruptions, and offers nothing if not kicking goals. May could basically sit on him and zone off as required. 

And Amarti is a long way from being a dominant AFL player (by the by, he is a good example of the risks of selecting key forwards before they are ready - as opposed to how we have managed JVR).

Logan McDonald is talented, but also still has a fair way to go.

And like the lions, it is the medium forwards like Heeney and Papley that cause us problems, so playing an extra medium defender like Hibbo was clever.

The Eagles only have the two-gun tall forwards in Darling and Allen - and their game is built around the intercept marking of Barass and Mcgovern, so in normal circumstances it would make sense for Petty to play forward against the Eagles.

But Mcgovern did his hammy, so Petty's forward defensive work (which was a big part of his role yesterday) won't be needed like it was against the Swans. Hibbo, and/or Melk if sub, can take Barass. 

My gut feel is Petty will play forward this week as Goody likes a three tall forward line (not counting the resting ruck - which for all intents and purposes is JVR until Maxy comes back) and someone has to play TMac's role of getting up and down the ground, blocking and creating aerial contests. 

Preparing for the Pies, who play pretty small in forward half!

[leave it to deever 17,451]

Watched the replay. The first quarter was strange. We lost 7 centre clearances in a row but kicked 6 more goals. We have the best defenders in the comp. JL on track for clubs b and f. Rivers is back to his best. Bowey still playing like a 100 gamer. McVee is a nice surprise and all is right in the world with Maysie back in. And to think we are missing one of the best defenders in Salem.

Edited April 4, 2023 by leave it to deever

[D4Life 2,405]

On 4/3/2023 at 7:17 PM, Fat Tony said:

The scoreboard definitely flattered us. 

Demons have put a lot of effort into goal kicking over summer, Grundy actually commented on level of excellence Demons strive towards re goal kicking. So I don’t think scoreboard flattered us too much.

[D4Life 2,405]

On 4/4/2023 at 5:49 AM, FlashInThePan said:

Just watched the replay, am I being overly sensitive or was BT and to a lesser extent, Cameron Ling, actively barracking for the swans? I felt like they were pumping up everything the swans did, and talking us down at every opportunity.

BT and ding a Ling are both definitely anti the Demons!

BT is unbelievably bad for a so called professional commentator- typical BT commentary - “that’s about the first time umpires have called ball back from centre bounce today” except that two bounces before they had called the ball back and I think the bounce before. He might have been a good footballer and has a presence, but he has no idea what’s going on at the football - probably has to concentrate so hard to talk that he has no capacity to absorb what’s happening on the field!

[layzie 32,854]

18 minutes ago, D4Life said:

Demons have put a lot of effort into goal kicking over summer, Grundy actually commented on level of excellence Demons strive towards re goal kicking. So I don’t think scoreboard flattered us too much.

Chocco the great! Next statue to go up.

 

[John Crow Batty 8,779]

On 4/4/2023 at 3:49 AM, FlashInThePan said:

Just watched the replay, am I being overly sensitive or was BT and to a lesser extent, Cameron Ling, actively barracking for the swans? I felt like they were pumping up everything the swans did, and talking us down at every opportunity.

Just a little more decoration on the cake after we win to see these knobs having to eat some humble pie.

[Kent 2,859]

46 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Watched the replay. The first quarter was strange. We lost 7 centre clearances in a row but kicked 6 more goals. We have the best defenders in the comp. JL on track for clubs b and f. Rivers is back to his best. Bowey still playing like a 100 gamer. McVee is a nice surprise and all is right in the world with Maysie back in. And to think we are missing one of the best defenders in Salem.

we dont seem to be missing him at all😁

[Gawndy the Great 9,009]

On 4/4/2023 at 8:02 AM, durango said:

For JVR this was a good beginning but he needs to follow this game up for 20 rounds plus finals.

I liked his game but we should not expect him to be a clone of Schwarz or Neitz at this stage, since the bash and crash nature of the game may take a physical toll on this young man.

The MFC got it right with his development in not rushing him into the team like they did with Jack Watts.

I hope he has a long and successful career at the MFC studded with premiership medals, AA's, Best and fairest, Brownlow and good results in the Coleman.

100%. Its game 1. Young players will suffer from inconsistency in effort and output. Even more so in the forward line. He has some good mentors and experience down there that he'll learn plenty from. But we need to temper our expectation of the young man. 

 

[layzie 32,854]

25 minutes ago, John Crow Batty said:

Just a little more decoration on the cake after we win to see these knobs having to eat some humble pie.

I haven't watched an MFC game with Ch 7 commentary yet. Thinking of just letting this ride. 

[Young Blood 2,269]

I like others re watched the game last night after attending on Sunday.

Overall as others have mentioned the resilience and hunger shown by the whole team was definitely the best I've seen since 2021 across four quarters. Apart from a few brain fade/structural mistakes (e.g. buddy alone in the pocket marking) we did not let up all day and as the swans kept coming we maintained our intensity and put the heat back on them.

The clearance game is an interesting one. I think Sydney wasted many of theirs on the weekend, especially in the first quarter. We often lose clearances but end up winning due to having an incredibly backline that can withstand pressure but also because of our contest work across the ground. There were so many players on the weekend who's workrate and ability to win contests were on show.

Player observations

Petty

He certainly didn't set the world on fire but boy did I love just about every contest he was involved in. There are so many reasons he looks a more effective forward overall then TMac and Brown at the moment. He's more agile, competes better at ground level, reads the ball better, uses his body better, great decision make and much more physical and imposing. I'm not saying overall Petty in this small sample size is unequivocally a better forward then those other two. He lacks polish and forward craft. But to me he just gives you so much more at every contest then the other two. PLUS he has genuine mongrel and a nasty side. Not saying he's a dirty player but he knows how to use his body to get away with some things to really [censored] off the opposition. He plays on the edge with his physicality and I love it. Apart from Kozzy something we have been missing

Chandler

Has to stay in the side. The number of repeat efforts defensively to bring the pressure not only in the forward line but up the ground was outstanding. His fitness must be elite. Hope he can keep it up for the season.

Bowey

Just such a classy player at just 20. Plays like a veteran with his decision-making and another that I thought has really stepped up with his tackling and contest work.

Sparrow

Obviously the improvement has been talked about but he's now becoming a damaging player when he's involved in a contest or passage of play. He's bulked up to go along with increased fitness and I dare say could walk into many clubs as a walk up starting midfielder. What a luxury to have him as one of the most underrated in the comp. Also his marking!

Edited April 5, 2023 by Young Blood

[TRIGON 4,768]

52 minutes ago, D4Life said:

BT and ding a Ling are both definitely anti the Demons!

BT is unbelievably bad for a so called professional commentator- typical BT commentary - “that’s about the first time umpires have called ball back from centre bounce today” except that two bounces before they had called the ball back and I think the bounce before. He might have been a good footballer and has a presence, but he has no idea what’s going on at the football - probably has to concentrate so hard to talk that he has no capacity to absorb what’s happening on the field!

BT's commentary can summed up by his line during the 2021 GF "and the crowd have gone unbelievably". 

Yes Brian. I too would be in disbelief if the patrons all left the ground half-way through the 3rd quarter of a Grand Final.

[leave it to deever 17,451]

1 hour ago, Young Blood said:

There are so many reasons he looks a more effective forward overall then TMac and Brown at the moment. He's more agil

I like Petty up forward but Tmac played a ripper at Casey and seems to have his confidence back. When fit and firing Tmac is a classic " bollocking " chf that crashes packs and can amass a bag of marks. He is also a dead eye shot on goal....both snaps and set. 

Bbb is a proven leading goal scorer who has already kicked 9 for the season including a game he was taken off early.

I think that they will both be a big part of our flag success this year.

Edited April 5, 2023 by leave it to deever

[leave it to deever 17,451]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

we dont seem to be missing him at all😁

True. Never thought that would be the case. He's an elite player. Cheers.