ROAD TO THE GRAND FINAL

[Lucifers Hero 39,041]

3 hours ago, Miles from Nowhere said:

If a stock, or in this case a bet, is oversold it is too cheap. Sellers have driven the price down; it is a buyer's market.

When a commentator says it is overdone it means that to their eyes there has been too much selling or not enough buying.

Therefore, we are "overs" - in a market that is supposedly priced for perfection - the Demons are false odds. The price is too long for the reasons stated.

I am no McLachlan apologist but in this case a number of posters have disappeared down the wrong wormhole.

Guilty of that. 

In my defence I didn't know he was talking about betting of which I know nothing.  Stocks I know a thing or two but the bits FC showed cobbled together didn't have a context.  It is good to have it clarified on here.

After all that he reckons we can go back-to-back!

Edited August 30, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[Diamond_Jim 12,390]

IF we win and Geelong lose we will go under $2 for the flag

[In Harmes Way 7,716]

4 hours ago, PaulRB said:

I think Gill means by "oversold" that we are better odds of winning the flag than many rate us... I took his quote as an endorsement that we are the close to favourite but not noticed... yet. 

I don't know if you saw this on the telly Paul, but it certainly looked like he was endorsing the Cats, Pies and suggesting we were cooked (moreso than flying under the radar).

His comments can be seen at the 40:10 minute mark on last night's Footy Classified 

https://www.9now.com.au/footy-classified/2022/episode-47

Edited August 30, 2022 by In Harmes Way

[Deenooos_ 647]

4 hours ago, In Harmes Way said:

I don't know if you saw this on the telly Paul, but it certainly looked like he was endorsing the Cats, Pies and suggesting we were cooked (moreso than flying under the radar).

His comments can be seen at the 40:10 minute mark on last night's Footy Classified 

https://www.9now.com.au/footy-classified/2022/episode-47

Exactly. The comments were in no way positive about us…

[old55 22,990]

I was thinking about the permutations for the GF if we make it. Week 1 any of the other 7 could make it against us, in week 2 only 3 of the 5 remaining can be our opponents - that's a big drop. PF week - 2 possible opponents of course.

[Lucifers Hero 39,041]

10 minutes ago, old55 said:

I was thinking about the permutations for the GF if we make it. Week 1 any of the other 7 could make it against us, in week 2 only 3 of the 5 remaining can be our opponents - that's a big drop. PF week - 2 possible opponents of course.

Who are you tipping to play off in the GF?

Here are the options:

 

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[old55 22,990]

16 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Who are you tipping to play off in the GF?

Here are the options:

 

 

If I have to commit then I think MFC vs Sydney. I think Geelong win another easy uncontested game this week and then get a rude surprise in the PF.

[Lucifers Hero 39,041]

4 hours ago, old55 said:

If I have to commit then I think MFC vs Sydney. I think Geelong win another easy uncontested game this week and then get a rude surprise in the PF.

I'm leaning the same way. 

The teams in Red in the Table are the ones I earmarked to play off in the respective final.  In the  Table I have Geelong/Sydney in PFI and Dees/Freo in PF2.  Sydney have a good record over Geelong.  So yeah, Dees vs Swans for the GF.

Not that I think Syd are that good, just that they match up well with the teams I think they might meet.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[rpfc 28,073]

No offence luci but your table made me MORE confused. The graphic the AFL has is fine or Squiggles is interactive:

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

[binman 42,116]

14 minutes ago, rpfc said:

No offence luci but your table made me MORE confused. The graphic the AFL has is fine or Squiggles is interactive:

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

Here's my prediction:

[Lucifers Hero 39,041]

27 minutes ago, rpfc said:

No offence luci but your table made me MORE confused. The graphic the AFL has is fine or Squiggles is interactive:

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

No offence taken. 

I like my diagram as it shows the possible combinations for each final.

In a nutshell the diagram is in ladder order and the colour shading in the first column shows the pairings for each week one final.  The W or L is the winner/loser of each pairing and so on and so forth.

[binman 42,116]

My other tip is for the first week of the finals to be a damp squib, with just the one close game - the tigers v lions match.

Here's how i see the firts two games playing out;

Tigers v Lions:

A brutal game.  Lions to come out hard and fast and get a jump on the tigers, much like their previous match. The tigers to work hard to get the 'game back on their terms'. Lions to ride the Gabba train home though and win by 13 points.

Key questions:

• how fit are Dusty (assuming he's picked) and Lynch? If not 100%, then the tigers might run into the don't play half fit players in finals wall
• how do the lions rebound from the shellacking we gave them

Dees v Swans:

Dees to swarm and surge from the get go, play fast, look to get a match winning lead by half time, and then slow the tempo in the second half. Much will depend on how accurate we are in the first half. If we take our chances, the game will be done and dusted half way through the second quarter.

Swans to struggle to transition the ball due to our pressure and swarming all team defence. Our pressure forces lots of turnovers, and scores from turnovers generate most of our scoring (as opposed to last week, where unusually scores from back half were big for us).  

Dees to win by 47 points.

 Key questions:

• what tactical rabbits will Longmire pull out of his strategy hat, and how effective will any such moves be?
• how big a factor will the home crowd be? 

Edited August 31, 2022 by binman

[D4Life 2,411]

1 hour ago, binman said:

My other tip is for the first week of the finals to be a damp squib, with just the one close game - the tigers v lions match.

Here's how i see the firts two games playing out;

Tigers v Lions:

A brutal game.  Lions to come out hard and fast and get a jump on the tigers, much like their previous match. The tigers to work hard to get the 'game back on terms'. Lions to ride the Gabba train home though and win by 13 points.

Key questions:

• how fit are Dusty (assuming he's picked) and Lynch? If not 100%, then the tigers might run into the don't play half fit players in finals wall
• how do the lions rebound from the shellacking we gave them

Dees v Swans:

Dees to swarm and surge from the get go, play fast, look to get a match winning lead by half time, and then slow the tempo in the second half. Much will depend on how accurate we are in the first half. If we take our chances, the game will be done and dusted half way through the second quarter.

Swans to struggle to transition the ball due to our pressure and swarming all team defence. Our pressure forces lots of turnovers, and scores from turnovers generate most of our scoring (as opposed to last week, where unusually scores from back half were big for us).  

 Key questions:

• what tactical rabbits will Longmire pull out of his strategy hat, and how effective will any such moves be?
• how big a factor will the home crowd be? 

I like your outlook! Games against Swans are rarely blowouts, will happily take any winning margin, even though the heart would prefer 30 plus points!

You need to follow up with Pies vs Cats smash one another and either lose in extra time. Love to see Pies lose anytime (2018 GF was great), and to see Cats lose another final after being pumped up by everyone would be awesome!

Dogs lose to Freo with free kicks 30-10 in Freo favour and Beverage bleating about frees would be highly enjoyable!

Edited August 31, 2022 by D4Life
Spelling

[Demon17 5,102]

49 minutes ago, binman said:

My other tip is for the first week of the finals to be a damp squib, with just the one close game - the tigers v lions match.

Here's how i see the firts two games playing out;

Tigers v Lions:

A brutal game.  Lions to come out hard and fast and get a jump on the tigers, much like their previous match. The tigers to work hard to get the 'game back on terms'. Lions to ride the Gabba train home though and win by 13 points.

Key questions:

• how fit are Dusty (assuming he's picked) and Lynch? If not 100%, then the tigers might run into the don't play half fit players in finals wall
• how do the lions rebound from the shellacking we gave them

Dees v Swans:

Dees to swarm and surge from the get go, play fast, look to get a match winning lead by half time, and then slow the tempo in the second half. Much will depend on how accurate we are in the first half. If we take our chances, the game will be done and dusted half way through the second quarter.

Swans to struggle to transition the ball due to our pressure and swarming all team defence. Our pressure forces lots of turnovers, and scores from turnovers generate most of our scoring (as opposed to last week, where unusually scores from back half were big for us).  

Dees to win by 47 points.

 Key questions:

• what tactical rabbits will Longmire pull out of his strategy hat, and how effective will any such moves be?
• how big a factor will the home crowd be? 

Nailed it for me Binman.

Last time inaccuracy killed us.  This game is in our own hands, but we have to put swans away and go in with a decent half time lead. Bailey Fritsch is still the only player I trust in this dept.  with BBB a close second.

The rest are a bit of a raffle .

[D4Life 2,411]

29 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Nailed it for me Binman.

Last time inaccuracy killed us.  This game is in our own hands, but we have to put swans away and go in with a decent half time lead. Bailey Fritsch is still the only player I trust in this dept.  with BBB a close second.

The rest are a bit of a raffle .

Spot on re accuracy, Trac should always play on and go with instinct as he seems a much better shot on the move, same with Oliver!

[daisycutter 29,429]

red and blue road to the grand final

[DEE fence 4,963]

Richmond hardest to predict. Love that we are 50/50 at worst for every game we play. Not relying on miracles, and so thankful to the club for all their handwork.