PODCAST: Rd 22 vs Carlton

[WalkingCivilWar]

8 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

Haha. This could make or break the cult. 
 

Ima go with “break” on this one, 1964_2.

[Watson11]

49 minutes ago, binman said:

Mmm predominantly - i feel like we have been here before. Words in mouth and all that.

Looks like you are not got to hear me - so hell I'll make it easer for you:

Our form is completely and utterly dependent on loading. Loading is so much the biggest factor that really, it is not even worth discussing others. 

I get it DWA, you are not part of the cult. That's ok.

Just enjoy the win becuase we stack up well against the lions and be confident it has nothing to do with being incrementally fresher team than the one that took on Carlton in a bruising affair. 

Good podcast. @binman I have unashamedly posted on loading as a thing before. But considering your strong conviction that it is still a factor, I have a few questions.

Burgo is on the record as saying our best physical output last year was r20 against Gold Coast, and collectively it was almost 20% better than our next best.  How can Burgo have got the timing of peak performance so wrong last year?  How much would we have beaten the dogs by if Burgo got it right?  Burgo is more experienced than Selwyn.  Is there any chance Selwyn has the timing even worse and we peak in November? 

 

 

[Webber]

3 hours ago, binman said:

Would it be a tripdych?

Depends how fast you run I guess. 

[layzie]

7 hours ago, Demonland said:

I will take a photo of my set up when I get home.

We used to use Skype but the audio coming from the other hosts was horrible. We now use zencaster and the audio coming from it is pretty good.

Cheers!

Zencaster looks darn impresive as a one stop shop program and a great way to get the high quality sound without all that painful editing! 

Does Zencaster handle the live streaming stuff too or is that a TuneIn thing?

[Demonland]

I don't believe it does. I use radio.co to stream.

[binman]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Good podcast. @binman I have unashamedly posted on loading as a thing before. But considering your strong conviction that it is still a factor, I have a few questions.

Burgo is on the record as saying our best physical output last year was r20 against Gold Coast, and collectively it was almost 20% better than our next best.  How can Burgo have got the timing of peak performance so wrong last year?  How much would we have beaten the dogs by if Burgo got it right?  Burgo is more experienced than Selwyn.  Is there any chance Selwyn has the timing even worse and we peak in November? 

 

 

Can you point me towards where he said that as i very much doubt he meant that the round 20 was our peak physical readiness for the whole season.

That game was very low intensity and we were not put under any physical pressure for the whole game. We barely got out of second gear (i watched it again ahead of this season's second freo game). It was incomparable to the power and intensity we ran out the prelim and GF. 

'Best physicals output' could mean any number of things (eg total distance covered as per the GPS monitors) - I'd have to listen, or read what he actually said, and the context it was said in, to give an informed response.   

[willmoy]

On 8/15/2022 at 9:32 AM, binman said:

Question:

Harry Petty does a brilliant job one on one one against Curnow to spoil and not infringe, only just hitting Curnow's outstretched arms as happens in 50 aerial contests a match. 

Yet the umpire pays a free. Ok, that's the benchmark for a marking infringement.

Brown and Gawn get scragged and their arms held and/or smashed at every aerial contest they are engaged in in and yet receive barely a single free between them.

What up with that?

P.S - asking for a friend.

And to that, where is the point of comparison for ten to twenty non pay decisions in normal course of a game, then inexplicably at the last two minute point a decision is made that alters all the preamble and the leader?

[Watson11]

25 minutes ago, binman said:

Can you point me towards where he said that as i very much doubt he meant that the round 20 was our peak physical readiness for the whole season.

That game was very low intensity and we were not put under any physical pressure for the whole game. We barely got out of second gear (i watched it again ahead of this season's second freo game). It was incomparable to the power and intensity we ran out the prelim and GF. 

'Best physicals output' could mean any number of things (eg total distance covered as per the GPS monitors) - I'd have to listen, or read what he actually said, and the context it was said in, to give an informed response.   

I’ll have to dig through his podcasts again but I’ll find it. From memory they were talking about power output which is a combination of factors that are combined to produce what is intended to equate to physical effort.  

[Watson11]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Can you point me towards where he said that as i very much doubt he meant that the round 20 was our peak physical readiness for the whole season.

That game was very low intensity and we were not put under any physical pressure for the whole game. We barely got out of second gear (i watched it again ahead of this season's second freo game). It was incomparable to the power and intensity we ran out the prelim and GF. 

'Best physicals output' could mean any number of things (eg total distance covered as per the GPS monitors) - I'd have to listen, or read what he actually said, and the context it was said in, to give an informed response.   

If you are interested in planning for olympics it’s a great listen.  Matthew Innes is high performance manager at the Dogs but he also was part of the Malaysian cycling program who won Malaysia’s first silver medal at the Tokyo games.  Fascinating listen.

Burgo chimes in with his Gold Coast fact just after the 49min mark.  There is no context or planning.  Just a factual statement.  

[DemonWA]

5 hours ago, 1964_2 said:

Let’s wait and see DemonWA. Your ability to 100% discount it, is equally impressive.

 

I don't discount it completely. My issue /difference in opinion right now is the time left in the season. I can't see how we have  time left in the season to lighten loads and and freshen up to the extent that we'll be swarming forward and playing a considerably different brand of footy than we've seen of late. These guys are coming off a very high fitness base so I think the improvements will be incremental rather than significant. Add to the equation that were playing finals like games whilst the tappering process is presumably being played out - to assume that a week or 2 can have such a significant impact seems like wishful thinking to me. Most of the guys are spending alot of the week recovering from niggles....  

If I'm going to steadfastly assume we'll recapture the 2021 finals form,  I'm almost more likley to side with those that talk about Goody playing ropeadope coaching tactics. Perhaps the improvement come finals will be a refinement/tweak in style against an opponent that has studied our Home and Away method to death and is unable to react to an in-game change to that method.

More realistically I think were playing at a level that is quite close to our best footy and we're facing stiffer opposition from the other contenders in what is a unprecedented season in terms of competitiveness across the 18 sides in the league.   

Agree to disagree

[binman]

1 hour ago, Watson11 said:

I’ll have to dig through his podcasts again but I’ll find it. From memory they were talking about power output which is a combination of factors that are combined to produce what is intended to equate to physical effort.  

Ta. I'll have a listen.

But my guess would be that the round 20 game was when they were at their strongest, ie most powerful, not their peak readiness - which is finals time

That would jag with the training program model Vipercrunch, Engorged Onion, Von and coach have discussed in the loading phase thread.

The program nvolveds a combination of blocks of high intensity strength focused training and blocks of volume to increase aerobic capacity.

The combination of the two, hopefully, results optimal readiness for a 4-5 week period, which for us would be working back from GF day (5 weeks is this Friday night).

 

[1964_2]

32 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

I don't discount it completely. My issue /difference in opinion right now is the time left in the season. I can't see how we have  time left in the season to lighten loads and and freshen up to the extent that we'll be swarming forward and playing a considerably different brand of footy than we've seen of late. These guys are coming off a very high fitness base so I think the improvements will be incremental rather than significant. Add to the equation that were playing finals like games whilst the tappering process is presumably being played out - to assume that a week or 2 can have such a significant impact seems like wishful thinking to me. Most of the guys are spending alot of the week recovering from niggles....  

If I'm going to steadfastly assume we'll recapture the 2021 finals form,  I'm almost more likley to side with those that talk about Goody playing ropeadope coaching tactics. Perhaps the improvement come finals will be a refinement/tweak in style against an opponent that has studied our Home and Away method to death and is unable to react to an in-game change to that method.

More realistically I think were playing at a level that is quite close to our best footy and we're facing stiffer opposition from the other contenders in what is a unprecedented season in terms of competitiveness across the 18 sides in the league.   

Agree to disagree

Fair call. As I have already discussed with Binman, I was also anticipating our fitness to be somewhere near its peak these last couple of games as well. 

And from that perspective, there have definitely been some improvements the last few weeks. But, maybe not to the level I was hoping. 

Fingers crossed for another level this week. 

[deanox]

There was a discussion about crowds, focussing on the last two weeks.

It's worth noting that we are 5th on the list for average home crowds in 2022 with 39200. However take out our home game in Alice Springs and we average 42500, putting us 4th behind only Collingwood, Richmond and Carlton (all between 45900 and 48600).

https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2022.html

Turns out the Demons have been turning up!

[spirit of norm smith]

On 8/15/2022 at 7:58 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

Two questions 

1.  What’s the tactic of kicking to the forward pockets rather than the central hotspot in front of goal ?….  It’s such a negative “defensive” play and easily stopped (Perhaps explains why we have 50-60 inside 50s yet goal scoring rate of 18-20%) 

2. 90% of the time , Steven May kicks out to 60 metres out , to the pack on the half back flank!!!  So predictable. Question - WHY? …… -( it’s very boring and other sides push numbers and punch it back. - How do other sides vary it , like the Swans who brought to ball to their inside 50 on 5/8 occasions without a Magpie touching it!!! ) 

@binman

@Demonland

Thanks to you for the podcast. Great listening.
 

Query. I heard the podcast but the answer to my Q1 doesn’t make sense.  Binman said about “less turnovers and Kozzzzy chasing down Rich and causing turnovers”. And “less likely to turnover the footy when it’s 70 metres out”.  It sounded like the answer to Question 2 re the kick out of May to outside the 50. (Ps. Stats show Cats, Lions& Swans have highest score rates from inbound kick outs). 
 

Question 1 was our “Kicking into our forward 50 into the forward pockets” and the lack of scoring.  We lead in forward 50 entries but have one of the lowest conversion rates. We are easy to defend in the pocket.  
Hunt’s final kick v blues showed how dangerous it is when you kick to the hotspot, 10 metres out , top of the square !!   Happy to hear more of this strange “pocket “ offensive strategy. It’s like we want to cause a ball up or out of bounds. 

[george_on_the_outer]

14 hours ago, deanox said:

There was a discussion about crowds, focussing on the last two weeks.

It's worth noting that we are 5th on the list for average home crowds in 2022 with 39200. However take out our home game in Alice Springs and we average 42500, putting us 4th behind only Collingwood, Richmond and Carlton (all between 45900 and 48600).

https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2022.html

Turns out the Demons have been turning up!

The other frightening statistic for the AFL from that table is North Melbourne.  Average attendance at Home games 14, 385.

We know GC and GWS are basketcases, but even the Saints have managed another 10K average at their Home games.

[george_on_the_outer]

12 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

@binman

@Demonland

Thanks to you for the podcast. Great listening.
 

Question 1 was our “Kicking into our forward 50 into the forward pockets” and the lack of scoring.  We lead in forward 50 entries but have one of the lowest conversion rates. We are easy to defend in the pocket.  
Hunt’s final kick v blues showed how dangerous it is when you kick to the hotspot, 10 metres out , top of the square !!   Happy to hear more of this strange “pocket “ offensive strategy. It’s like we want to cause a ball up or out of bounds. 

I think there are 2 different things here @spirit of norm smith.  We are currently not scoring because of a lack of a second tall forward.  With only BBB to aim for ( Max and Jackson haven't been marking and scoring) we are dependent upon Kossie, Melksham and Fritsch to score multiple goals to win.  It is easy for defenders to nullify any forward entries to stop marking, no matter where the ball is targeted to...pocket or goal square.

The second thing is that EVERY team kicks to the pocket. 

1. It makes it easier to target, as a leading forward is running at an angle to the ball.  Easier to kick to and easier to adjust to be able to mark.

2. If the opposition mark the ball, the corridor is exposed and the risk is the ball then goes end to end.  Coaches will have got all the statistics on success or failure of kicking to the pocket v kicking to the top. 

3. You are correct.  If the ball is not marked by either team, an OOB or a ball up is a likely result.  If you are confident you have a side with more likelihood of winning a stoppage then this is again statistically a better option since you are more likely to win the ball which is now close to goal.

4. Players kick from the pockets just as well as in front these days.  Who would you back...BBB in the pocket or Max King from direct in front?

[spirit of norm smith]

@george_on_the_outer

Thanks team.  I agree it’s not just one reason for our poor conversion rate. Much lower than other teams.  Lack of a big string marking forward. Poor delivery into the 50.  Poor connection. Goalkicking accuracy.
Going inside our forward 50, I think we definitely do kick to the pockets more and it is definitely a different tactic to other sides.   I’m sure the discussion will continue whether it’s effective or not. 

[binman]

17 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

@binman

@Demonland

Thanks to you for the podcast. Great listening.
 

Query. I heard the podcast but the answer to my Q1 doesn’t make sense.  Binman said about “less turnovers and Kozzzzy chasing down Rich and causing turnovers”. And “less likely to turnover the footy when it’s 70 metres out”.  It sounded like the answer to Question 2 re the kick out of May to outside the 50. (Ps. Stats show Cats, Lions& Swans have highest score rates from inbound kick outs). 
 

Question 1 was our “Kicking into our forward 50 into the forward pockets” and the lack of scoring.  We lead in forward 50 entries but have one of the lowest conversion rates. We are easy to defend in the pocket.  
Hunt’s final kick v blues showed how dangerous it is when you kick to the hotspot, 10 metres out , top of the square !!   Happy to hear more of this strange “pocket “ offensive strategy. It’s like we want to cause a ball up or out of bounds. 

My apologies norm - i completely stuffed that up.

We have the question written in a shared show DM and instead of actually listening to the question i was reading them. Well to be accurate, reading the wrong one!

The answer are similar in that both strategies (kick to the pocket coming inside 50 and kick out to the same spot each time) are all about probability and percentages.

In very simple terms, kicking to the pocket, whilst boring and predictable, over the journey will result in scoring more often and conceding less goals from transition. Risk versus reward

I posted on this very topic (ie why i think we kick to the pocket) in another thread some time back and will find it later and paste in here. 

It is worth noting there was a very similar discussion on DL heading into the finals last season.

Come the prelim and GF we def went a bit more central with our inside 50 kicks and so moved the risk reward dial towards risk a bit more.   

That is one of the advantages of predictability.

When coming up against us, opposition teams make tweaks to their structures, systems and tactics to counter what we do. If we do the same things all the time they respond accordingly, meaning if we suddenly become unpredictable we can catch them out.

As an example, in the GF we got a jump on the dogs, party because we did something a bit different with our inside 50 entries. The dogs suddenly had to organize their defensive structure a bit differently to counter that change.

A more recent, and even better, example is how we set up and implemented the set play that resulted in Kozzie's match winning goal.

The blues fully expected that we would go down the line with any attacking foray in those last 2 minutes, and set up accordingly. They also put offensive players in down the line spots on their side of centre.

We obviously knew they would do so and designed a set up that looked to create an outnumber in the corridor. 

And so, when Lever didn't even hesitate to go around his body and kicked laterally inboard to the corridor, no doubt much to Voss's shock, we incredibly had a 3 to 1 out number (by the by that kick also highlights the risks involved in being more aggressive in terms of ball movement - we turn that ball over then and the game is over as if we have a 3 to one outnumber in the corridor they had two free players somewhere - one of which being may's opponent McKay). 

There was another element in that play where we used our predictability to our advantage. By being unpredictable.

Normally Hunt would kick that ball into one of the pockets as per our normal, predictable method.

Instead he kicked to a spot 20 metres out directly in front of goal, where it was all one on ones - something Voss would be furious about - as their extras were probably protecting the space near the boundary on the members side (players who would have been stationed there expecting Lever was going to kick it towards them).

I heard Bartel say he has no doubt that kick by hunt and the preceding one by Lever was a set play drawn up during the week by the coaching staff, noting that it was too far out for the blues to hit through for a point.   

Those sort of tweaks and taking advantage of suddenly being unpredictable are best left for the finals where they can have maximum impact, not least because opposition coaches suddenly have tactically respond on the fly.

The same is true for tactics we might employ to negate, and/or respond to, strategies teams have tried against us during the home and way season.

That's to say there is an advantage when goody doesn't respond during the home and away season in that he gets a look at what the other coach might try and in a big final with out showing his hand. An example is the way Geelong looked to take advantage of our kick in to Maxy by having big bodied players like Blicavs front and center at those aerial contests. 

Goody got criticised for not responding, but if we play the cats in the finals we know Scott might employ that same strategy, and have months to plan and train a response, yet he is only guessing what that response might be.

For example, we might suddenly occasional start going short to the pocket (we have been experimenting a bit with in some recent games), and then do what the lions look to do - go long from there so the aerial contest is up near the wing, with perhaps BB and Fritter pushing up ie go over the top of Gawn and the Cats players looking to win the grounds ball. 

Edited August 17 by binman

[Deeoldfart]

Fantastic work fellas.  Thanks fortaking the time to answer my question.  Geez I hope Bin is on the money re the Bris game, like he so often is!

Edited August 17 by Deeoldfart
Typo

[Queanbeyan Demon]

@Demonland, @george_on_the_outer, @binman

Thank you for your wonderful analysis Guys. An Island of Sanity in a Sea of Insanity.