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Forward Half Concerns

dazzledavey36
dazzledavey36
in Melbourne Demons

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I will resist the urge to say I told you so to a few of you about our forward pressure being down most of the year. I’m good like that…
 

Pressure is about attitude - that’s why NM and WCE can be above anyone in anything.

The players have an option to lift and apply themselves for the last two months of the season or leave a golden chance to cement their legacy go begging; they are so good, that they can compete while ignoring a cornerstone of their game.

But losers always talk about competing, don’t they?

 

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    I also reckon that fact that ANB is playing up the ground a bit more is a genuine factor, his pressure has been great up the ground, but we are missing his deep inside 50 pressure. Have to put Chandler in this week somehow. 

    But put Weid, Fritsch and Melk in that fwd line, its coming out pretty quickly if its not marked, zero inside 50 tackles last week is a disgrace.  

     

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    Just to add to our "forward half concerns:

    After 19 games we've scored 22 points more than last year. And we've only had 16 more points scored against us. Our percentage is slightly higher than this time last year.

    So interestingly the woes haven't resulted in less scoring, or more scoring gainst due to the ball bouncing out fast.

    Attached is the top 10 this year so far. I cant find the same list for last year to compare who has dropped out and who has come in.

    Screenshot_20220801-001237_AFL.jpg

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    6 hours ago, deanox said:

    Just to add to our "forward half concerns:

    After 19 games we've scored 22 points more than last year. And we've only had 16 more points scored against us. Our percentage is slightly higher than this time last year.

    So interestingly the woes haven't resulted in less scoring, or more scoring gainst due to the ball bouncing out fast.

    Attached is the top 10 this year so far. I cant find the same list for last year to compare who has dropped out and who has come in.

    Screenshot_20220801-001237_AFL.jpg

    That's a great stat. If we boil down, the output is all about points scored vs points against.

    Aesthetically it feels different from last year- but perhaps that's a little subconscious need for the replication of the end of the 3rd quarter of the GF weekly...

    We've had to play against more contenders as part of our draw in the second half of the season.

    We've had our spine severely depleted in different ways, injuries, injuries in game, which have made as easier to score against, and potentially harder to generate scores.

    So all that context , lends itself to a belief from me that we are tracking better than last year. 😎

     

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    16 hours ago, deanox said:

    Just to add to our "forward half concerns:

    After 19 games we've scored 22 points more than last year. And we've only had 16 more points scored against us. Our percentage is slightly higher than this time last year.

    So interestingly the woes haven't resulted in less scoring, or more scoring gainst due to the ball bouncing out fast.

    Attached is the top 10 this year so far. I cant find the same list for last year to compare who has dropped out and who has come in.

    Screenshot_20220801-001237_AFL.jpg

    Fritsch 43     ----    39 in 2021      went on to kick 20 more in  6 games for 59 goals total in 2021

    Kozzy 31 ----------  30                     40 total

    Brown 23 --------  12  ----- kicked 13 from 6 games for 25 total

    Tracc  15 ---------- 21                  29 total

    TMac  15 ---------   29    14 difference           33 total   * missed 2 games Adel & WC

    Weid   13 ---------   3   Didn’t play after Round 13

    Harmes 12 ------ 5       7 total

    Gawn 11 --------- 10       went on to kick 16 total including 5 in PF.

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    When we have the pressure on the footy like last Friday - our forward line looks very potent.

    So will this thread die? I hope it does…

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    51 minutes ago, Demonland said:

    Fritsch 43     ----    39 in 2021      went on to kick 20 more in  6 games for 59 goals total in 2021

    Kozzy 31 ----------  30                     40 total

    Brown 23 --------  12  ----- kicked 13 from 6 games for 25 total

    Tracc  15 ---------- 21                  29 total

    TMac  15 ---------   29    14 difference           33 total   * missed 2 games Adel & WC

    Weid   13 ---------   3   Didn’t play after Round 13

    Harmes 12 ------ 5       7 total

    Gawn 11 --------- 10       went on to kick 16 total including 5 in PF.

    Great research Andy

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    On 7/26/2022 at 9:36 AM, Demon3 said:

    I also reckon that fact that ANB is playing up the ground a bit more is a genuine factor, his pressure has been great up the ground, but we are missing his deep inside 50 pressure.

    Good call. He was #1 in the comp for forward 50 tackles last year. This year he's ranked 59th.

    He's actually averaging slightly more tackles overall though, just getting them further up the ground as you say. This suggests a slight shift in strategy rather than simply a lack of effort among our forwards.

    I think the absence of TMac is also a factor. He's surprisingly good defensively for a big guy - he was ranked top 20 for forward 50 tackles last year as well.

     

     

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    3 hours ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

    Good call. He was #1 in the comp for forward 50 tackles last year. This year he's ranked 59th.

    He's actually averaging slightly more tackles overall though, just getting them further up the ground as you say. This suggests a slight shift in strategy rather than simply a lack of effort among our forwards.

    I think the absence of TMac is also a factor. He's surprisingly good defensively for a big guy - he was ranked top 20 for forward 50 tackles last year as well.

     

     

    Interesting, it seems we've been setting our zone further back this year for whatever reason - it hasn't been the high forward press we saw last year.

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    2 minutes ago, layzie said:

    Certainly makes you think.

    Just let that sink in.

    let-that-sink-in-let-that-sink-in-meme.gif

    Edited by deanox

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    12 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

    Interesting, it seems we've been setting our zone further back this year for whatever reason - it hasn't been the high forward press we saw last year.

    I think this has been recurring in a lot of stats and discussion around the effectiveness of our small forwards.

    I've wondered if it was a factor of the following:

    - Lack of continuity with our tall KPD players (Petty (6), Lever (5), May (2)) all missing games, been unfit/injured etc. When these 3 aren't set, we need to defend deeper because we can't rely on their reading and impact contests.

    - Langdon missed 1 and the effect on our zone showed

    - TMac has missed 10, Brown has missed 5. Last year with both playing, they linked up the field and delivered i50 to the other. With only one most of the year, have the smalls (and thus our forward zone) had to play higher/deeper?

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    On 7/26/2022 at 10:06 AM, Demon3 said:

    I also reckon that fact that ANB is playing up the ground a bit more is a genuine factor, his pressure has been great up the ground, but we are missing his deep inside 50 pressure. Have to put Chandler in this week somehow. 

    But put Weid, Fritsch and Melk in that fwd line, its coming out pretty quickly if its not marked, zero inside 50 tackles last week is a disgrace.  

     

    I noticed that in our Geelong game. We played so high between the 50 and centre square. Ball flew in over the top to a Geelong spare and got spat out so quickly. Those types of turnovers hurt because the mids start to press on the entry then are out of place on the return. 
     

    Bring back the old Plugger strategy and stuck BB in the goal square!!!

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    The types of forward 50 entries we had on Fri night were more low trajectory and using the boundary line as our friend types. I think this is a decent strategy because our forward line functions best when we a pinging it around in there. More of a chaos forward line than control.

    It's funny because in the last few weeks opposition teams have been trying to figure out how to attack our no fly zone defence by creating more ground opportunities and they have really just been showing us how we should approach our own forward issues. 

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    I wonder if the full zone is more effective, but more taxing so we shift deeper during the earlier stages of the year (including during loading) and we'll see the zone get closer to our goal as we get closer to finals.

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    1 hour ago, deanox said:

    I wonder if the full zone is more effective, but more taxing so we shift deeper during the earlier stages of the year (including during loading) and we'll see the zone get closer to our goal as we get closer to finals.

    I hope so

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    46 minutes ago, Demonland said:

    Fritsch 43

    Pickett 31

    I don’t really know what that means, if anything.

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    5 hours ago, rpfc said:

    I don’t really know what that means, if anything.

    2 goals per game average each for Fritta (18) and Kossie (19) games, and getting better as season progresses! 

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    9 hours ago, layzie said:

    Best twin tower combo I guess. 

    It's handy but not the be all and end all.

    It means you can be shut down more easily. Shut down the two keys and it goes a long way to beating you. I'd rather have more unpredictable goal sources.

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    It is our Achilles heel at the moment. With the increase in soft cap spend next year we need to invest in a specialist forward coach. I like Greg Stafford, nobody can bang a Gatorade container drum style like him during the team song. He is a premiership ruck / forward coach and credit to home for that.He has never been a specialist forward and right now that is what we need. We got away with it last year but not this year. Leading patterns are wrong, games with zero tackles in forward line, no front and square smalls, smalls flying for marks and spoiling our talks,dump kicks to forward pocket which makes it harder to score. We should not have lost that game last night. Statistically and to the naked eye we had enough chances to win easily. We also let them slingshot from defence way to easily. That is on the forwards. Aces in their places get a specialist forward coach in and Stafford to concentrate on the rucks.

    Edited by Dee Viney Intervention

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    21 minutes ago, Dee Viney Intervention said:

    It is our Achilles heel at the moment. With the increase in soft cap spend next year we need to invest in a specialist forward coach. I like Greg Stafford, nobody can bang a Gatorade container drum style like him during the team song. He is a premiership ruck / forward coach and credit to home for that.He has never been a specialist forward and right now that is what we need. We got away with it last year but not this year. Leading patterns are wrong, games with zero tackles in forward line, no front and square smalls, smalls flying for marks and spoiling our talks,dump kicks to forward pocket which makes it harder to score. We should not have lost that game last night. Statistically and to the naked eye we had enough chances to win easily. We also let them slingshot from defence way to easily. That is on the forwards. Aces in their places get a specialist forward coach in and Stafford to concentrate on the rucks.

    I don't really think it's a forward coach problem I think it's a whole coaching philosophy of low risk play the % based footy we play. We are coached to not take  risks entering the forward 50 which is why we often hold the ball up allow numbers into the forward line and kick to the pocket and try lock it in so we can set up defensively instead of taking a risky kick to a 50/50 which could result in turnover. We need a balance of both and right now players are in the moment playing too conservative entering 50

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