2023 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch

[ChaserJ 4,992]

55 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Highlights of Dan Curtin in his senior WAFL debut.

 

Followed this up with 20 touches and 6 marks in a loss against Freo affiliated Peel Thunder on Saturday. Heading into top 3 territory.

[Colm 2,066]

9 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

Followed this up with 20 touches and 6 marks in a loss against Freo affiliated Peel Thunder on Saturday. Heading into top 3 territory.

North would be crazy not to take him at pick 3. Looks absolute quality and fills a need for them. Top 3 and maybe 4 starting to look pretty set. Anybody know how Duursma went over the weekend? Hawks are supposedly keen on him at pick 4. 

[ChaserJ 4,992]

2 hours ago, Colm said:

North would be crazy not to take him at pick 3. Looks absolute quality and fills a need for them. Top 3 and maybe 4 starting to look pretty set. Anybody know how Duursma went over the weekend? Hawks are supposedly keen on him at pick 4. 

No Coates League games on last weekend and Duursma wasn’t selected at Casey (good to see Kynan Brown get a run though), so he might have had the week off or played local footy.

[whatwhat say what 22,640]

3 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

No Coates League games on last weekend and Duursma wasn’t selected at Casey (good to see Kynan Brown get a run though), so he might have had the week off or played local footy.

brown's kicking - other than the one he tried to roll thru from 3m out that hit the post - was superb i thought

really nicely weighted to the leading player going i50 and seemed to make 'good' decisions

looks like he is definitely going to be on our list in 2024 and beyond

wouldn't surprise me if he becomes a best 23 type

[Nascent 9,083]

22 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

Followed this up with 20 touches and 6 marks in a loss against Freo affiliated Peel Thunder on Saturday. Heading into top 3 territory.

 

[Mach5 4,767]

Is he that good? Tall but plays like a flanker.

[Pennant St Dee 13,064]

1 hour ago, Mach5 said:

Is he that good? Tall but plays like a flanker.

One of the best I’ve seen come through WA in a long time 

[Jjrogan 1,416]

Call me crazy but I see a forward playing as backman in those Curtin highlights.  Got some toe and lateral swagger.

[whatwhat say what 22,640]

19 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

Call me crazy but I see a forward playing as backman in those Curtin highlights.  Got some toe and lateral swagger.

the comparison he's been getting is pavlich, i believe?

if that would be the ceiling, would that make cale morton the floor?

kicking action looks smooth

[Skuit 10,029]

7 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

One of the best I’ve seen come through WA in a long time 

I've consistently reiterated how wrong I always am as to drafting, including in regards to Luke Jackson, whose MFC scouting vids only came out once we had drafted him at #3. Nothing from the above Curtin footage screams top ten to me, let alone being the next Pavlich (I played alongside the original one for a bit when I was younger and thought he might become the future 'Pavlich'). Are your big-ups based on something observable in the footage, or via an off-screen assessment?  

[Pennant St Dee 13,064]

2 hours ago, Skuit said:

I've consistently reiterated how wrong I always am as to drafting, including in regards to Luke Jackson, whose MFC scouting vids only came out once we had drafted him at #3. Nothing from the above Curtin footage screams top ten to me, let alone being the next Pavlich (I played alongside the original one for a bit when I was younger and thought he might become the future 'Pavlich'). Are your big-ups based on something observable in the footage, or via an off-screen assessment?  

I won’t go into my observations  on him, but it’s certainly a lot more than the footage shown above

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

On 8/10/2023 at 12:33 PM, BW511 said:

The way compo is tied into the dollar value of deals is wrong. Seems way too easy to manipulate.

He is always injured, he's not actually very good, as your stats highlight, then I ask how much more help do North need?

 

On 8/10/2023 at 11:28 AM, Lord Travis said:

The North compo pick really dictates the early draft. Their list manager (Rawlings) made comment yesterday that 'end of first round or second round compensation is not what we're after', and that they'd rather match the offer as a restricted free agent than lose him for that. They're really pushing for start of first round compo, so pick 3. If they got pick 3, then Eagles are less likely to trade pick 1 backwards and we'd lose access to Reid. Or, if we didn't trade up, our pick drops and we potentially lose access to someone like Mckercher, Curtin, Duursma that we'd targeted. Fingers crossed for us and the whole league that North don't get pick 3. 

On the potential for pick 3 for the Roos, in no way is Ben Mckay worth a first round pick as compo. On 2023 form, he's lost 41% of one on one contests, which ranks him as the worst key defender in the league. Outright statistically worst tall defender in the league. He's only averaged a bit under 2 intercept marks a game. For context, May has lost 21%, Lever 25%. Tomlinson surprisingly has been our strongest defender in the contest, and has only lost 12% of one on one contests and averages a bit over 1 intercept mark a game, including matches where he's been subbed off. If Ben McKay is worth a first round pick, then so is Tomlinson, and we all know neither are. 

I'm still hopefully we'll be able to put picks together to trade for pick 1 and land Reid. He looks like an incredible prospect and it would be so damaging and exciting having him form a rotation of devastation between midfield and forward line with Petracca.

If these stats are right, what are we worried about? Nobody is dropping 800K on this bloke. It would be different if he showed signs that would warrant 800K, but he hasn't. They would be extremely negligent in their duties to do so. Instead why wouldn't you make a play for Nick Haynes an AA KPD for a 2 or 3 year deal? Yes its a 1.2M pay packet, but you'd ask for GWS 1st pick to take on the salary dump and you'd get a quality defender and a top 10ish draft pick. Or there is a play for Tomlinson probably for a early 3rd round draft pick. Better player than McKay and significantly cheaper too.

 

[RyanD 290]

4 hours ago, Skuit said:

I've consistently reiterated how wrong I always am as to drafting, including in regards to Luke Jackson, whose MFC scouting vids only came out once we had drafted him at #3. Nothing from the above Curtin footage screams top ten to me, let alone being the next Pavlich (I played alongside the original one for a bit when I was younger and thought he might become the future 'Pavlich'). Are your big-ups based on something observable in the footage, or via an off-screen assessment?  

I would be interested to see how supporters would rate the prospects without a draft guide as to where they will go. The draft guess work for supporters is confirmation bias 101. You know they are a high-draft pick when you watch these videos, so it always stands out more. If you just had footage and no guide for the top 30 players, 95% of supporters wouldn't get close to picking the top 10. 

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,476]

1 hour ago, Gawndy the Great said:

 

If these stats are right, what are we worried about? Nobody is dropping 800K on this bloke. It would be different if he showed signs that would warrant 800K, but he hasn't. They would be extremely negligent in their duties to do so. Instead why wouldn't you make a play for Nick Haynes an AA KPD for a 2 or 3 year deal? Yes its a 1.2M pay packet, but you'd ask for GWS 1st pick to take on the salary dump and you'd get a quality defender and a top 10ish draft pick. Or there is a play for Tomlinson probably for a early 3rd round draft pick. Better player than McKay and significantly cheaper too.

 

The concern is that the AFL 'formula' and the particulars of an individual's contract are not made public.  The league does not disclose the specific reasons for why they award a particular band of compensation.  If it were purely mathematical and transparent, then there would be no need for clubs to lobby the league like Rawlings is.  

 

[Lord Travis 10,694]

2 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

 

If these stats are right, what are we worried about? Nobody is dropping 800K on this bloke. It would be different if he showed signs that would warrant 800K, but he hasn't. They would be extremely negligent in their duties to do so. Instead why wouldn't you make a play for Nick Haynes an AA KPD for a 2 or 3 year deal? Yes its a 1.2M pay packet, but you'd ask for GWS 1st pick to take on the salary dump and you'd get a quality defender and a top 10ish draft pick. Or there is a play for Tomlinson probably for a early 3rd round draft pick. Better player than McKay and significantly cheaper too.

 

If the compensation rules were black and white and players contracts more visible, then sure there'd be nothing to worry about. The issue is the AFL deliberately keep the compensation rules vague - "secret herbs and spices" is always referenced, even by AFL list managers - and players contracts private. It means the AFL can then do as they please in terms of compensation. Clubs can also manipulate the system as a result. 

Any club willing to pay $800k for Ben McKay, a broken down poorly performing key defender who plays less than 10 games a year at 26 years old, is mental. Good on McKay if he can get money he's not worth, similar to Scully back in the day, but it's a laughable figure for him as a footballer. If North get pick 3 compensation for him, then clubs should riot. I mean would we expect first round compo for the likes of Tomlinson or Neal-Bullen? That's essentially what would be happening.

[Mach5 4,767]

4 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I won’t go into my observations  on him, but it’s certainly a lot more than the footage shown above

Never seen him play live, only watched some short compilations, but just haven’t seen him do a lot overhead.

Doesn’t mean he’s not good. Buddy was the tallest flanker ever.

[Nascent 9,083]

 

 

Highlights of a player that may be removed from the general draft pool if North get their wish.

[Lord Travis 10,694]

31 minutes ago, Nascent said:

 

 

Highlights of a player that may be removed from the general draft pool if North get their wish.

It’s a shame he likely won’t be available as he likely would’ve been around our pick. He looks a really well rounded player and probably the lowest risk option in the top 10. Competent inside and outside, accumulates a lot of ball, brings teammates into the game, doesn’t mind taking a run himself, neat disposal, hits the scoreboard. He’s got leadership qualities too. Might not wind up a star, but hard to see him not having a solid career at worst. Very likely type and wouldn’t be disappointed if he was our pick if available.

[Adam The God 30,109]

On 8/13/2023 at 8:57 PM, Nascent said:

Highlights of Dan Curtin in his senior WAFL debut.

 

I'd be staggered if he's still there after pick 3. Reid might be more explosive, but Curtin appears to have traits that will certainly convert to AFL level. Reid's ceiling might be higher...?

[Master Deebater 490]

1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

It’s a shame he likely won’t be available as he likely would’ve been around our pick. He looks a really well rounded player and probably the lowest risk option in the top 10. Competent inside and outside, accumulates a lot of ball, brings teammates into the game, doesn’t mind taking a run himself, neat disposal, hits the scoreboard. He’s got leadership qualities too. Might not wind up a star, but hard to see him not having a solid career at worst. Very likely type and wouldn’t be disappointed if he was our pick if available.

He definitely looks a likely type. As LT pointed out he's well rounded & got all the attributes at this level.

It's a shame he's agreeing to go to a dud club via the NGA

Just go into the draft son

[whatwhat say what 22,640]

22 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

I'd be staggered if he's still there after pick 3. Reid might be more explosive, but Curtin appears to have traits that will certainly convert to AFL level. Reid's ceiling might be higher...?

it'd be nice if these draft guides that proliferate these days would give that sort of guide...

harley reid:

• ceiling: christian petracca
• floor: luke tapscott

daniel curtin:

• ceiling: matthew pavlich
• floor: cale morton

and so on and so forth

[Adam The God 30,109]

We're fortunate @whatwhat say what that we have some great talent scouts on here who I trust like @Pennant St Dee @ChaserJ @IvanBartul13.

[whatwhat say what 22,640]

18 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

We're fortunate @whatwhat say what that we have some great talent scouts on here who I trust like @Pennant St Dee @ChaserJ @IvanBartul13.

not to mention a bloke named jason taylor...

[Nascent 9,083]

1 hour ago, Binmans PA said:

I'd be staggered if he's still there after pick 3. Reid might be more explosive, but Curtin appears to have traits that will certainly convert to AFL level. Reid's ceiling might be higher...?

Agreed.

Still a bit to play out but for me it will be Reid, Walter and Curtin as the first three names read out on draft night, order to be determined.

We'll most likely be picking from McKercher, Duursma, Watson or Sanders if available.

[manny100 1,494]

I would say the Recuiting and List Management Team at the Dees would be looking at making offers for the WCE pick 1 and GC 's 1st rounder.

Possible compo or priority for North will interfere with potential deals.

There are a number of WA  kids ranked 15 to 30 plus or there abouts so they may be interested in swapping for our picks to get access to them.

Last year they swapped their pick 2 for picks 8 and 12 to pick up WA kids. Although i think those picks slipped with FS/Academy bids.

GC will definitely trade their 1st rounder. They will probably want our 2 round 2 picks and a future 1st. They have plenty of 2nd and 3rd round picks already and a 20% points discount.

What would be best:

Reid, or 2 picks around the 4/5/6 area in this draft?

Or no trade and our Freo pick around pick 5 and our 1st rounder likely 16 plus (hopefully 18).