Welcome to Demonland: Jacob Van Rooyen

[rjay 25,087]

6 hours ago, Deedubs said:

lol. this 'premiership player' tag is a little over the top. There's been a lot of spuds that have been premiership players but yeah he had a career like Tom Mcdonald then I'd take that. Hopefully not being a butcher in the backline for the first 7 years of his career.  

I hate the use of that word when talking about players.

Anyone that makes it to AFL level for a start is not a spud...they've got to be very good footballers to even get on an AFL list let alone play one game.

It's something the majority of us will never do.

[Deedubs 157]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

I hate the use of that word when talking about players.

Anyone that makes it to AFL level for a start is not a spud...they've got to be very good footballers to even get on an AFL list let alone play one game.

It's something the majority of us will never do.

Obviously spud is in relation to the 700 other AFL players. I would've thought that's implied. 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Deedubs

[Guest]

There are so many logical fallacies going on here it's ridiculous.  

[BAMF 4,385]

16 hours ago, FlashInThePan said:

I'm just going to play with stats here a little bit... because why not?

In the last 21 years (since 2000) the average height of the Coleman medalist has been 195.09cm. There is a slight increase in average height if you include only the last 10 years - 196.9. If, however, you look at the top goal scorers over the last 10 years, the average height is  191.8cm

 

 

Season	Player	Height
2021	Harry McKay	204
2020	Tom Hawkins	198
2019	Jeremy Cameron	196
2018	Jack Riewoldt	193
2017	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199
2016	Josh Kennedy	196
2015	Josh Kennedy	196
2014	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199
2013	Jarryd Roughead	193
2012	Jack Riewoldt	193
2011	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199
2010	Jack Riewoldt	193
2009	Brendan Fevola	191
2008	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199
2007	Jonathan Brown	195
2006	Brendan Fevola	191
2005	Fraser Gehrig	195
2004	Fraser Gehrig	195
2003	Matthew Lloyd	192
2002	David Neitz	191
2001	Matthew Lloyd	192
2000	Matthew Lloyd	192
	avg last 21 years	195.0909091
	avg last 10 YEARS	196.9090909

 

 

1. Lance Franklin (639)	199
2. Jack Riewoldt (574)	193
3. Josh Kennedy (562)	196
4. Tom Hawkins (495)	198
5. Eddie Betts (477)	174
6. Taylor Walker (403)	194
6. Jeremy Cameron (403)	196
8. Jarryd Roughead (394)	193
9. Luke Bruest (392)	184
10. Jack Darling (378)	191
AVERAGE	191.8

 

First off. I 100% disagree that JVR height is an issue and that he cant be classified as a key forward.

Second. While I dont want to speak for DeeDubs, I think what they are trying to say is that having a tall forward who is over 195cm+ is preferred these days. Forwards are getting taller. Height IS a factor. There are 200cm tall forwards these days and they are becoming more common. If you have a 200cm tall forward then you need a defender or similar height to defend them. We have Petty which fits the bill, so I'm not too worried there.

What I look at when I see your table is that over the last 21 years the Coleman medalist is getting taller. If you include a 5 year rolling average it shows from 2004 - 2021, while the year to year average fluctuates, the overall difference from start to finish is about 0.33cm per year. If that continues on trend then the average will be 199.5 in 5 years time.

What does this tell us about JVR? Nothing conclusive. 193cm is still a very good height for a key forward if he is good enough. However, we will probably like to partner him with someone who is 195cm+. The good thing is that we have Jackson already. Personally, I would like to see us draft a 200cm+ developing ruck and another key forward (195cm+) over the next few years.

Season	Player	Height	5year Ave
2021	Harry McKay	204	198
2020	Tom Hawkins	198	196.4
2019	Jeremy Cameron	196	196
2018	Jack Riewoldt	193	196.6
2017	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199	196.6
2016	Josh Kennedy	196	195.4
2015	Josh Kennedy	196	196
2014	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199	195.4
2013	Jarryd Roughead	193	193.8
2012	Jack Riewoldt	193	195
2011	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199	195.4
2010	Jack Riewoldt	193	193.8
2009	Brendan Fevola	191	194.2
2008	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199	195
2007	Jonathan Brown	195	193.6
2006	Brendan Fevola	191	192.8
2005	Fraser Gehrig	195	193
2004	Fraser Gehrig	195	192.4
2003	Matthew Lloyd	192
2002	David Neitz	191
2001	Matthew Lloyd	192
2000	Matthew Lloyd	192

 

[BAMF 4,385]

16 hours ago, Action Jackson said:

This list is a bit misleading as you've decided to not include guys like:

Tom McDonald - 194cm

Charlie Curnow - 192cm

Dan McStay - 196cm

Jack Darling - 191cm

Taylor Walker - 194cm

Jack Reiwoldt - 195cm

Brody Mihocek - 192cm

They all have had great impacts on games of football

Most of these players have another key forward player who plays the taller key forward position.

Ben Brown 200cm

Harry McKay 204cm

Joe Danniher 201cm + Eric Hipwood 203cm

Josh Kennedy 196cm

Adelaide - None, however have Tilthorpe developing at 202cm

Tom Lynch 199cm

Collingwood - None. Dont even think they have one developing. 

 

Summary : JVR height of 193cm is not an issue. However, we will likely want a long term partner for him who is over 195cm.

[Freddy Fuschia 747]

Anything wrong with Aaron Naughton as a key forward at 195cm?

Towering forward ready to show his wares in Academy hitout

“IN A DRAFT pool that is dominated by midfielders, Jacob van Rooyen stands out. Then you throw in his 195cm frame, the strong marking, hard running and batch of blond hair and it is easy to see why the West Australian has caught the eye of scouts.”

[FlashInThePan 1,893]

10 hours ago, Deedubs said:

Why are you including Betts and Breust in your averages? They aren't key forwards. I was saying the avg height for a good key forward as of 2022 is 199cm.This is from a sample of 20 key forwards in the leading goal kickers of this year. So I'm not sure why you would include a 174cm forward pocket lol.  

That second set of data was just trying to show that over the life of a forward, height seems to be only one factor. Honestly, I was a bit bored yesterday and your statement about key forward height kicked me into a frenzy of playing with data and the top ten goal kickers of the past decade just looked like really interesting data to me.Your statement about key forward height does seem to be a trend, I'd like to do some more analysis to see if it is a trend that works for or against teams.

An interesting point was raised by someone that the rise of the tall power forward is due to needing to beat the defensive zone rather than compete 1-1. Logically you would expect that a better way to beat the zone is by precision ball movement and leading patterns. I wonder if the problem is more due to full ground defensive zones and an increase in pressure on the ball carrier leading to poorer delivery into the forward zone - more dump kicks. That kind of entry can only be successful with a dominant tall forward or at least the ability to halve the contest and take it to a ground ball situation.

[Grimes Times 1,278]

yeah but whats his arm span like compared to other Coleman medalist and will he be wearing long stops or short??

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

3 hours ago, BAMF said:

 

First off. I 100% disagree that JVR height is an issue and that he cant be classified as a key forward.

Second. While I dont want to speak for DeeDubs, I think what they are trying to say is that having a tall forward who is over 195cm+ is preferred these days. Forwards are getting taller. Height IS a factor. There are 200cm tall forwards these days and they are becoming more common. If you have a 200cm tall forward then you need a defender or similar height to defend them. We have Petty which fits the bill, so I'm not too worried there.

What I look at when I see your table is that over the last 21 years the Coleman medalist is getting taller. If you include a 5 year rolling average it shows from 2004 - 2021, while the year to year average fluctuates, the overall difference from start to finish is about 0.33cm per year. If that continues on trend then the average will be 199.5 in 5 years time.

What does this tell us about JVR? Nothing conclusive. 193cm is still a very good height for a key forward if he is good enough. However, we will probably like to partner him with someone who is 195cm+. The good thing is that we have Jackson already. Personally, I would like to see us draft a 200cm+ developing ruck and another key forward (195cm+) over the next few years.

Season	Player	Height	5year Ave
2021	Harry McKay	204	198
2020	Tom Hawkins	198	196.4
2019	Jeremy Cameron	196	196
2018	Jack Riewoldt	193	196.6
2017	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199	196.6
2016	Josh Kennedy	196	195.4
2015	Josh Kennedy	196	196
2014	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199	195.4
2013	Jarryd Roughead	193	193.8
2012	Jack Riewoldt	193	195
2011	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199	195.4
2010	Jack Riewoldt	193	193.8
2009	Brendan Fevola	191	194.2
2008	Lance 'Buddy' Franklin	199	195
2007	Jonathan Brown	195	193.6
2006	Brendan Fevola	191	192.8
2005	Fraser Gehrig	195	193
2004	Fraser Gehrig	195	192.4
2003	Matthew Lloyd	192
2002	David Neitz	191
2001	Matthew Lloyd	192
2000	Matthew Lloyd	192

 

Thanks for your analysis BAMF. I can totally see the logic of having a taller key forward to pair with JVW medium-to-long term. Regarding recruiting a 200cm+ developing ruck, there is already one playing for Casey, Jack Bell ex-St Kilda 202cm and still only 21, and we should look to get him on the Melbourne list.

Not sure about the analysis though of Coleman medallists, especially when you're applying 5 year averages to only 22 years and less if you look at duplicates. Clearly when 4 of the 22 entries are Buddy Franklin, 199cm but with a unique set of skills which no other player has, it distorts the numbers. Coleman winners are not just winners because of their height. It depends on the team they play for, injuries, other forwards, game style ... If you looked at average goals per game preferably for the top 10 key forward goal kickers for each year it would be more meaningful.

Bailey Fritsch kicked the most goals in the AFL lat year (with the aid of finals) and he's only 188cm 😄.

 

[Deedubs 157]

if only Weideman was showing a bit more...

I think people have slightly misconstrued what I've said but also made some good points. I think we just need to pair up Van Rooyen with a genuine 2m tall instead of some Tim Membrey types. 

[Sydee 4,529]

16 hours ago, one_demon said:

Yes

  

I'm not disputing their skills.  What I'm saying is that they didn't have to play in a zone defence, so they could stand in the goal square all game and only needed to move out when the team had the ball in the midfield and were moving forward.    

 

I suspect we will never agree on this and that's ok 

From where I sit either one of those guys could still play great football today even if there are zone defence now

With great footy IQ and skills they would adapt quickly and still shine - again just my opinion

Either way we will never know but back on topic I think JVR has the potential to be a very handy forward given time and there is no need to rush him

[pineapple dee 2,892]

23 hours ago, Sydee said:

Personally I would prefer a fit Allen Jakovich (187cm

And you wouldn't be the only one who wants a young fit Allen Jakovich roaming around our forward line, giving it to opposition defenders Sydee. !!!! 

The most fun I had watching the dees play back in those days was watching Jakovich kicking goals just for fun !!

[ManDee 7,222]

I don't care how tall a forward is. I couldn't care if they were all under 190cm. Kicking a winning score is the aim, made easier by a tight defence. What about a forward line with Charlie Cameron, Dustin Martin, Toby Greene, Christian Petracca, Willi Rioli and Bayley Fritch. How would the average defence handle that? You don't need to be tall to be a good forward.

Edited May 19, 2022 by ManDee
Remove Eddie for Charlie- current players

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,225]

1 minute ago, ManDee said:

I don't care how tall a forward is. I couldn't care if they were all under 190cm. Kicking a winning score is the aim, made easier by a tight defence. What about a forward line with Eddie Betts, Dustin Martin, Toby Greene, Christian Petracca, Willi Rioli and Bayley Fritch. How would the average defence handle that? You don't need to be tall to be a good forward.

Well I'd put Hibbo on Dusty. I'd make sure Petracca only takes set shots and I'd give Willie a bottle of gatorade prior to the game.

Problem solved.

[Deedubs 157]

5 minutes ago, ManDee said:

I don't care how tall a forward is. I couldn't care if they were all under 190cm. Kicking a winning score is the aim, made easier by a tight defence. What about a forward line with Eddie Betts, Dustin Martin, Toby Greene, Christian Petracca, Willi Rioli and Bayley Fritch. How would the average defence handle that? You don't need to be tall to be a good forward.

They'd get killed in the air. 

[ManDee 7,222]

1 minute ago, Deedubs said:

They'd get killed in the air. 

Don't bomb it in. You play to your strengths. And most of them can take a mark.

So if Melbourne are the best defensive side how would we man up? We could cover 2 or 3 but the others would cut us up.

It is about quality not height.

[Deedubs 157]

3 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Don't bomb it in. You play to your strengths. And most of them can take a mark.

So if Melbourne are the best defensive side how would we man up? We could cover 2 or 3 but the others would cut us up.

It is about quality not height.

Well they wouldn't even get it into their forward line because they would've spent their salary cap on the forward line so your example is unrealistic. 

[ManDee 7,222]

4 minutes ago, Deedubs said:

Well they wouldn't even get it into their forward line because they would've spent their salary cap on the forward line so your example is unrealistic. 

Thanks for that. Nice of you to ignore the premise. Perhaps you would like a forward line of players over 2metres tall.

 

The real point is you don't need to have 2metre + forwards to have a successful side.

Edited May 19, 2022 by ManDee

[Deedubs 157]

6 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Thanks for that. Nice of you to ignore the premise. Perhaps you would like a forward line of players over 2metres tall.

I didn't ignore it. I said they'd get killed in the air. How much clearer could I be? It's all well and good to say 'don't bomb it in' but it's impossible to not kick the ball long in to the forward line. especially with midfield pressure. So yeah, they'd get smashed. 

A forward line of "Tom Lynch, H.Mackay, Heeney, Charlie Cameron, Fritsch and Bolton" is a lot more dangerous as it stretches a teams defence in terms of match ups. With a shorter team you can put tall that play small (like Joel Smith) or shorts that play big (Hibberd). Match up options are endless.  

Edited May 19, 2022 by Deedubs

[durango 2,023]

Some of the Great goal kickers in the AFL/VFL were not giants but use body and positioning to help them kick huge bags.

Abblet Snr, Wade, Pratt and Dunstall were not tall but used their spring or body to out position their opponents.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

24 minutes ago, Deedubs said:

I didn't ignore it. I said they'd get killed in the air. How much clearer could I be? It's all well and good to say 'don't bomb it in' but it's impossible to not kick the ball long in to the forward line. especially with midfield pressure. So yeah, they'd get smashed. 

A forward line of "Tom Lynch, H.Mackay, Heeney, Charlie Cameron, Fritsch and Bolton" is a lot more dangerous as it stretches a teams defence in terms of match ups. With a shorter team you can put tall that play small (like Joel Smith) or shorts that play big (Hibberd). Match up options are endless.  

You would've spent your salary cap on this forward line so your example is unrealistic.

[Deedubs 157]

8 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

You would've spent your salary cap on this forward line so your example is unrealistic.

Incorrect. I'm comparing his unrealistic forward line to my unrealistic example to demonstrate that tall key forwards create match up headaches. keep up junior :)

[Deedubs 157]

26 minutes ago, durango said:

Some of the Great goal kickers in the AFL/VFL were not giants but use body and positioning to help them kick huge bags.

Abblet Snr, Wade, Pratt and Dunstall were not tall but used their spring or body to out position their opponents.

completely missed the point. We're not saying that you can't be a good forward unless your tall. We're saying that the majority of the best tall forwards in 2022 are 199cm on average. It's like all thumbs are fingers but not all fingers are thumbs. Not sure how what I said could be misconstrued.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

25 minutes ago, Deedubs said:

Incorrect. I'm comparing his unrealistic forward line to my unrealistic example to demonstrate that tall key forwards create match up headaches. keep up junior :)

Deedubs, I assume you have lots of friends outside this site because I suspect you have very few on it.

You have a go at ManDee about an unrealistically expensive forward line when salary cap has absolutely nothing to do with the discussion (the point made was that height is not the only driver of effectiveness in a forward line). Then you put in an unrealistic forward line with a mixture of talls & smalls to make the point I assume that a balance of talls, smalls, different types of players would be more effective. I agree with you on this point. I also concede that me mentioning this particular combination of players would not work within the confines of a team's salary cap is irrelevant, but I assumed it would be OK with you since you did exactly the same thing earlier.

Clearly you hold other people to different standards than you hold yourself. You don't like other people having a go at you. However, you seem to think picking fights with other posters is absolutely fine.

Please don't resort to namecalling. I find it offensive (which no doubt will encourage you further). 

[Deedubs 157]

17 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Deedubs, I assume you have lots of friends outside this site because I suspect you have very few on it.

You have a go at ManDee about an unrealistically expensive forward line when salary cap has absolutely nothing to do with the discussion (the point made was that height is not the only driver of effectiveness in a forward line). Then you put in an unrealistic forward line with a mixture of talls & smalls to make the point I assume that a balance of talls, smalls, different types of players would be more effective. I agree with you on this point. I also concede that me mentioning this particular combination of players would not work within the confines of a team's salary cap is irrelevant, but I assumed it would be OK with you since you did exactly the same thing earlier.

Clearly you hold other people to different standards than you hold yourself. You don't like other people having a go at you. However, you seem to think picking fights with other posters is absolutely fine.

Please don't resort to namecalling. I find it offensive (which no doubt will encourage you further). 

name calling? where was I using name calling? I showed facts. Go to leading goal scorers of 2022. Look at their heights.  That's from a large sample size. If I show 30 key forwards who average 199cm in height, I'm not sure why people mention forwards that are small to demonstrate the point that smaller forwards can be good? it's not even my point. My point is that key forwards are 199cm on average these days. In 5-10 years time, it could very well be 201-203cm. I'm not sure how many people have seen JVR live (I have). He's good, but he's not super tall.  

Edited May 19, 2022 by Deedubs