3 hours ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

Being the lack of visibility of development this year surely its a great time to have concentrated picks in the 25-60 range where you may chance late developing kids who could not show their wares this year. Even some players don’t really show out as much until the champs when the quality rises around them or they are forced to play a different role than at club level. Think of how many bolters  there have been due to the championship or post champs that have shot in from 25-40 or further range to be top 10 or top 25. 

 

Its also likely that due to numerous Academy/FS picks in the top 25, club's 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders will be gobbled up for points. So picks 47, 60 and 62 could end up being 10-15 picks higher

Edit. I also believe GWS come in with a deficit carried over from last year. Not 100% sure though.

Bulldogs will likely use up 9 and some of 38 if they want to match the lad tipped to go 1, assuming Crows or Norf bid for him

Edited September 5, 20204 yr by Moonshadow

1 hour ago, Moonshadow said:

Its also likely that due to numerous Academy/FS picks in the top 25, club's 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders will be gobbled up for points. So picks 47, 60 and 62 could end up being 10-15 picks higher

Edit. I also believe GWS come in with a deficit carried over from last year. Not 100% sure though.

Bulldogs will likely use up 9 and some of 38 if they want to match the lad tipped to go 1, assuming Crows or Norf bid for him

if the dogs and the filth are smart they'll work a way to 'game' the system for 2020 and 2021 so that the pies end up holding the dogs' 2020 first rounder and the filth the dogs' 2021 first rounder so that they use back-ended points in picking the kids who're rated likely #1 picks in their respective years that they have early access to them

i have no probs with the pies getting access to the latest daicos coming thru next year, but the dogs having priority on jamara ugle-hagan is just absurd

1 hour ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

if the dogs and the filth are smart they'll work a way to 'game' the system for 2020 and 2021 so that the pies end up holding the dogs' 2020 first rounder and the filth the dogs' 2021 first rounder so that they use back-ended points in picking the kids who're rated likely #1 picks in their respective years that they have early access to them

i have no probs with the pies getting access to the latest daicos coming thru next year, but the dogs having priority on jamara ugle-hagan is just absurd

I think clubs did that a year or 2 ago and the AFL "integrity" dept then banned thst kind of blatant draft manipulation 

1 hour ago, Moonshadow said:

I think clubs did that a year or 2 ago and the AFL "integrity" dept then banned thst kind of blatant draft manipulation 

if they're smart, they'll find a way

Order to end of Round 17 —

Adelaide 1 9 20 30 45 50 60
Brisbane Lions 18 19 41 64
Carlton 7 26 44
Collingwood 14 35 39 67
Essendon 6 42 61 69 70
Fremantle 8 29
Geelong 11 15 16 34
Gold Coast Suns 5 24 36 72
GWS Giants 28 46 68
Hawthorn 3 21 40 43 58 66
Melbourne 22 47 62 63
North Melbourne 2 10 25 57 65
Port Adelaide 27 32 37 49 55
Richmond 17 31 53 71
St Kilda 13 59 73
Sydney 4 23 54 56
West Coast Eagles 33 51 52
Western Bulldogs 12 38 48 

Good resource here for draft pick order that @Whispering_Jack has also provided above:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-nominal-draft-order-live-based-on-current-ladder.1229399/page-2

Cal Twomey has 8 Academy players in his most recent top 25 at 1 (Dogs), 8 (Sydney), 11 (Port), 13 (GC), 15 (Sydney), 16 (Collingwood), 20 (GC) and 25 (Hawthorn)

https://www.afl.com.au/news/493042/cal-twomey-s-2020-phantom-form-guide-september-update

Dogs will use pick 12 to get Ugle-Hagan at 1 so that will bring other picks after 12 in by one.

Sydney x 2, Port, GC x 2, Collingwood, Hawthorn will presumably use later picks to match so that will push other picks out by 7.

So on that basis our 22 would be pushed out to 28 (net 6 loss).

Our Pick 10 now with North is unlikely to be pushed out much - maybe 2 picks to pick 12.  Pickett for 2020 pick 12 is looking OK - a year of development into him. 

17 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

Good resource here for draft pick order that @Whispering_Jack has also provided above:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-nominal-draft-order-live-based-on-current-ladder.1229399/page-2

Cal Twomey has 8 Academy players in his most recent top 25 at 1 (Dogs), 8 (Sydney), 11 (Port), 13 (GC), 15 (Sydney), 16 (Collingwood), 20 (GC) and 25 (Hawthorn)

https://www.afl.com.au/news/493042/cal-twomey-s-2020-phantom-form-guide-september-update

Dogs will use pick 12 to get Ugle-Hagan at 1 so that will bring other picks after 12 in by one.

Sydney x 2, Port, GC x 2, Collingwood, Hawthorn will presumably use later picks to match so that will push other picks out by 7.

So on that basis our 22 would be pushed out to 28 (net 6 loss).

Just need Adelaide and North to bid on the NGA and F/S picks so at least the best of the rest will still be in the draft.  I thought Adelaide had a F/S that was pretty highly rated as will.  Need to limit clubs to using their first round picks and not handing them a first round pick and using later picks for these NGA players.

Gives those clubs with top end kids the opportunity to be super aggressive at trade week.  Really the dogs/Syd/Pies will trade out their first round pick don't need it guaranteed player all they need is a points to cover through second and third round, worse case for them the get a club like us to trade our 2021 first pick for their 2020 pick.  I don't think clubs will like future trading 2021 picks though with the NGA's gone

23 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

Our Pick 10 now with North is unlikely to be pushed out much - maybe 2 picks to pick 12.  Pickett for 2020 pick 12 is looking OK - a year of development into him. 

It looks ok because we drafted well and have won enough games this year (with no injuries). Just because you win at blackjack doesn't mean you are a good player.

9 minutes ago, drdrake said:

Just need Adelaide and North to bid on the NGA and F/S picks so at least the best of the rest will still be in the draft.  I thought Adelaide had a F/S that was pretty highly rated as will.  Need to limit clubs to using their first round picks and not handing them a first round pick and using later picks for these NGA players.

Gives those clubs with top end kids the opportunity to be super aggressive at trade week.  Really the dogs/Syd/Pies will trade out their first round pick don't need it guaranteed player all they need is a points to cover through second and third round, worse case for them the get a club like us to trade our 2021 first pick for their 2020 pick.  I don't think clubs will like future trading 2021 picks though with the NGA's gone

Sydney currently pick 4 and Collingwood currently pick 14 will take both those picks before needing to bid on their NGA according to the Twomey order and use later picks to match the bids.

8 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

It looks ok because we drafted well and have won enough games this year (with no injuries). Just because you win at blackjack doesn't mean you are a good player.

We made the trade with a plan to draft Pickett and on the belief that we would rise up the ladder - looks like things have gone pretty much according to plan.

3 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

Sydney currently pick 4 and Collingwood currently pick 14 will take both those picks before needing to bid on their NGA according to the Twomey order and use later picks to match the bids.

Sydney yep but Collingwood touch and go, hopefully someone bids.

Given that there are going to be some additional picks available through free agency compensation plus a number of picks moving through trades and all the way through to draft night, I wouldn't be studying the current draft positions too closely because they aren't going to match the final draft order.

History shows there is a significant drop in average games played after pick 8, so a small shift in picks either way i(n that range) isn't a big deal

Edited September 17, 20204 yr by Demons1858

Will we ever get good use of our academy ? Is that just a dream?

Order to end of Round 18 —

Adelaide 1 8 20 31 44 48 60
Brisbane Lions 18 19 40 64
Carlton 7 27 45
Collingwood 12 35 39 68
Essendon 6 42 61 69 70
Fremantle 10 29
Geelong 11 15 16 34
Gold Coast Suns 5 24 36 72
GWS Giants 28 46 66 
Hawthorn 4 21 41 43 59 67
Melbourne 23 47 62 63
North Melbourne 2 9 25 57 65
Port Adelaide 26 30 37 50 55
Richmond 17 32 53 71
St Kilda 14 58 73
Sydney 3 22 54 56
West Coast Eagles 33 51 52
Western Bulldogs 13 38 49

On 9/21/2020 at 9:57 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

Order to end of Round 18 —

Adelaide 1 8 20 31 44 48 60
Brisbane Lions 18 19 40 64
Carlton 7 27 45
Collingwood 12 35 39 68
Essendon 6 42 61 69 70
Fremantle 10 29
Geelong 11 15 16 34
Gold Coast Suns 5 24 36 72
GWS Giants 28 46 66 
Hawthorn 4 21 41 43 59 67
Melbourne 23 47 62 63
North Melbourne 2 9 25 57 65
Port Adelaide 26 30 37 50 55
Richmond 17 32 53 71
St Kilda 14 58 73
Sydney 3 22 54 56
West Coast Eagles 33 51 52
Western Bulldogs 13 38 49

Wow picks 47,62 and 63 will be like picking with a pin in this year of no form as a guide. Glad it is not up to me.

The Giants' second round selection No.28 will slide back to 39 due to points deficit 

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER (before Week 1 AFL 2020 Finals)

ROUND ONE

1. Adelaide
2. North Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn
5. Gold Coast
6. Essendon
7. Carlton
8. Adelaide (received from GWS in 2019)
9. North Melbourne (received from Melbourne in 2019)
10. Fremantle*
11. Geelong (mid-round concession pick received from Gold Coast in 2019)
12. Collingwood
13. Western Bulldogs
14. St Kilda
15. Geelong (received from West Coast in 2019)
16. Geelong
17. Richmond
18. Brisbane
19. Brisbane (received from Port Adelaide in 2019)

*Fremantle's first pick was adjusted due to a 264.9 deficit from 2019

ROUND TWO

20. Adelaide
21. Hawthorn (received from North Melbourne in 2019)
22. Sydney
23. Melbourne (received from Hawthorn in 2019)
24. Gold Coast
25. North Melbourne (received from Essendon in 2019)
26. Port Adelaide (received from Fremantle in 2019)
27. Carlton
28. Fremantle (received from Melbourne in 2019)
29. Port Adelaide (tied to Collingwood, on-traded by Brisbane in 2019)
30. Adelaide (received from the Western Bulldogs in 2019)
31. Richmond (tied to St Kilda, on-traded by Collingwood, Fremantle in 2019)
32. West Coast
33. Geelong
34. Collingwood (received from Richmond in 2019)
35. Gold Coast (received from Brisbane in 2019)
 
ROUND THREE

36. Western Bulldogs (received from Adelaide)
37. Collingwood (tied to North Melbourne, on-traded by GWS in 2019)
38. Brisbane (received from Sydney in 2019)
39. Greater Western Sydney *
40. Hawthorn
41. Essendon (tied to Gold Coast, on-traded by Geelong, Adelaide in 2019)
42. Port Adelaide*
43. Hawthorn (tied to Essendon, on-traded by Collingwood, Brisbane in 2019)
44. Adelaide (tied to Fremantle, on-traded by Sydney, St Kilda in 2019)
45. Carlton
46. Greater Western Sydney 
47. Melbourne
48. Adelaide (tied to Collingwood, on-traded by Fremantle in 2019)
49. Western Bulldogs
50. Port Adelaide (received from St Kilda in 2019)
51. West Coast
52. West Coast (received from Geelong in 2019)
53. Richmond
54. Sydney (received from Brisbane in 2019)
55. Port Adelaide

* Greater Western Sydney's second pick was adjusted due to a 254.2 deficit from 2019

* Port Adelaide's second pick was adjusted due to a 115.9 deficit from 2019

ROUND FOUR

56. Sydney (received from Adelaide in 2019)
57. North Melbourne
58. St Kilda (received from Sydney in 2019)
59. Hawthorn
60. Adelaide (received from Gold Coast in 2019)
61. Essendon
62. Melbourne (received from Fremantle in 2019)
63. Melbourne (tied to Carlton, on-traded by Fremantle, Adelaide in 2019)
64. Brisbane (tied to GWS, on-traded by Port Adelaide, Adelaide in 2019)
65. North Melbourne (tied to Melbourne, on-traded by GWS, Hawthorn in 2019).
66. Greater Western Sydney (received from Collingwood in 2019)
67. Hawthorn (received from Western Bulldogs in 2019)
68. Collingwood (tied to St Kilda, on-traded by Fremantle in 2019)
69. Essendon (received from West Coast in 2019)
70. Essendon (received from Geelong in 2019)
71. Richmond
72. Gold Coast (received from Brisbane in 2019)
73. St Kilda (received from Port Adelaide in 2019)
 
ROUND FIVE

74. Adelaide
75. North Melbourne
76. Sydney
77. Hawthorn
78. Gold Coast
79. Essendon
80. Brisbane (received from Fremantle in 2019)
81. Carlton
82. Greater Western Sydney 
83. Melbourne
84. Collingwood
85. Western Bulldogs
86. St Kilda
87. West Coast
88. Geelong
89. Richmond
90. Brisbane
91. Port Adelaide

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER (after Week 1 AFL 2020 Finals)

ROUND ONE

1. Adelaide 
2. North Melbourne 
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn 
5. Gold Coast 
6. Essendon
7. Carlton 
8. Adelaide 
9. North Melbourne 
10. Fremantle 
11. Geelong
12. Western Bulldogs 
13. Geelong 
14. Collingwood 
15. St Kilda
16. Geelong
17. Richmond 
18. Brisbane 
19. Brisbane 

ROUND TWO

20. Adelaide 
21. Hawthorn 
22. Sydney
23. Melbourne 
24. Gold Coast 
25. North Melbourne 
26. Port Adelaide
27. Carlton 
28. Fremantle  
29. Adelaide 
30. West Coast
31. Port Adelaide 
32. Richmond 
33. Geelong 
34. Collingwood
35. Gold Coast
36. Port Adelaide

ROUND THREE

37. Western Bulldogs
38. Collingwood
39.  Brisbane
40. Greater Western Sydney 
41. Hawthorn
42. Essendon
43. Hawthorn 
44. Adelaide
45. Carlton 
46. Greater Western Sydney 
47. Melbourne 
48. Western Bulldogs 
49. West Coast 
50. Adelaide 
51. Port Adelaide
52. West Coast
53. Richmond 
54. Sydney 
55. Port Adelaide 

ROUND FOUR

56. Sydney
57. North Melbourne 
58. St Kilda
59. Hawthorn
60. Adelaide
61. Essendon
62. Melbourne
63. Melbourne
64. Brisbane
65. North Melbourne 
66. Hawthorn 
67. Essendon 
68. Greater Western Sydney 
69. Collingwood
70. Essendon
71. Richmond 
72. Gold Coast 
73. St Kilda

ROUND FIVE

74. Adelaide 
75. North Melbourne
76. Sydney 
77. Hawthorn 
78. Gold Coast
79. Essendon
80. Brisbane 
81. Carlton 
82. Greater Western Sydney
83. Melbourne 
84. Western Bulldogs 
85. West Coast 
86. Collingwood 
87. St Kilda
88. Geelong
89. Richmond
90. Brisbane
91. Port Adelaide 

* Fremantle have a third selection in Round Six

 

Is this the year to try to accumulate multiple picks between 20-30 odd? Chase the would be bolters that aren't actually bolters as there wasn't enough footy played, if that makes sense.

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER (after Week 2 AFL 2020 Finals)

ROUND ONE

1. Adelaide 
2. North Melbourne 
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn 
5. Gold Coast 
6. Essendon
7. Carlton 
8. Adelaide 
9. North Melbourne 
10. Fremantle 
11. Geelong
12. Western Bulldogs 
13. Geelong 
14. Collingwood 
15. St Kilda
16. Geelong
17. Richmond 
18. Brisbane 
19. Brisbane 

ROUND TWO

20. Adelaide 
21. Hawthorn 
22. Sydney
23. Melbourne 
24. Gold Coast 
25. North Melbourne 
26. Port Adelaide
27. Carlton 
28. Fremantle  
29. Adelaide 
30. West Coast
31. Port Adelaide 
32. Richmond 
33. Geelong 
34. Collingwood
35. Gold Coast
36. Port Adelaide

ROUND THREE

37. Western Bulldogs
38. Collingwood
39.  Brisbane
40. Greater Western Sydney 
41. Hawthorn
42. Essendon
43. Hawthorn 
44. Adelaide
45. Carlton 
46. Greater Western Sydney 
47. Melbourne 
48. Western Bulldogs 
49. West Coast 
50. Adelaide 
51. Port Adelaide
52. West Coast
53. Richmond 
54. Sydney 
55. Port Adelaide 

ROUND FOUR

56. Sydney
57. North Melbourne 
58. St Kilda
59. Hawthorn
60. Adelaide
61. Essendon
62. Melbourne
63. Melbourne
64. Brisbane
65. North Melbourne 
66. Hawthorn 
67. Essendon 
68. Greater Western Sydney 
69. Collingwood
70. Essendon
71. Richmond 
72. Gold Coast 
73. St Kilda

ROUND FIVE

74. Adelaide 
75. North Melbourne
76. Sydney 
77. Hawthorn 
78. Gold Coast
79. Essendon
80. Brisbane 
81. Carlton 
82. Greater Western Sydney
83. Melbourne 
84. Western Bulldogs 
85. West Coast 
86. Collingwood 
87. St Kilda
88. Geelong
89. Richmond
90. Brisbane
91. Port Adelaide 

* Fremantle have a third selection in Round Six

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER (after Week 3 AFL 2020 Finals)

ROUND ONE

1. Adelaide 
2. North Melbourne 
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn 
5. Gold Coast 
6. Essendon
7. Carlton 
8. Adelaide 
9. North Melbourne 
10. Fremantle 
11. Geelong
12. Western Bulldogs 
13. Geelong 
14. Collingwood 
15. St Kilda
16. Brisbane 
17. Brisbane
18. Geelong
19. Richmond 

ROUND TWO

20. Adelaide 
21. Hawthorn 
22. Sydney
23. Melbourne 
24. Gold Coast 
25. North Melbourne 
26. Port Adelaide
27. Carlton 
28. Fremantle  
29. Adelaide 
30. West Coast
31. Port Adelaide 
32. Richmond 
33. Gold Coast
34. Port Adelaide
35. Geelong
36. Collingwood

ROUND THREE

37. Western Bulldogs
38. Collingwood
39.  Brisbane
40. Greater Western Sydney 
41. Hawthorn
42. Essendon
43. Hawthorn 
44. Adelaide
45. Carlton 
46. Greater Western Sydney 
47. Melbourne 
48. Western Bulldogs 
49. West Coast 
50. Adelaide 
51. Port Adelaide
52. Sydney  
53. Port Adelaide
54. West Coast
55. Richmond 

ROUND FOUR

56. Sydney
57. North Melbourne 
58. St Kilda
59. Hawthorn
60. Adelaide
61. Essendon
62. Melbourne
63. Melbourne
64. Brisbane
65. North Melbourne 
66. Hawthorn 
67. Essendon 
68. Greater Western Sydney 
69. Collingwood
70. Gold Coast
71. St Kilda 
72. Essendon
73. Richmond

ROUND FIVE

74. Adelaide 
75. North Melbourne
76. Sydney 
77. Hawthorn 
78. Gold Coast
79. Essendon
80. Brisbane 
81. Carlton 
82. Greater Western Sydney
83. Melbourne 
84. Western Bulldogs 
85. West Coast 
86. Collingwood 
87. St Kilda
88. Brisbane
89. Port Adelaide
90. Geelong
91. Richmond

* Fremantle have a third selection in Round Six

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER (after AFL 2020 Finals)

ROUND ONE

1. Adelaide 
2. North Melbourne 
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn 
5. Gold Coast 
6. Essendon
7. Carlton 
8. Adelaide 
9. North Melbourne 
10. Fremantle 

11. Geelong
12. Western Bulldogs 
13. Geelong 
14. Collingwood 
15. St Kilda
16. Brisbane 
17. Brisbane
18. Geelong
19. Richmond 

ROUND TWO

20. Adelaide 
21. Hawthorn 
22. Sydney
23. Melbourne 
24. Gold Coast 
25. North Melbourne 
26. Port Adelaide
27. Carlton 
28. Fremantle  
29. Adelaide 
30. West Coast
31. Port Adelaide 
32. Richmond 
33. Gold Coast
34. Port Adelaide
35. Geelong
36. Collingwood

ROUND THREE

37. Western Bulldogs
38. Collingwood
39.  Brisbane
40. Greater Western Sydney 
41. Hawthorn
42. Essendon
43. Hawthorn 
44. Adelaide
45. Carlton 
46. Greater Western Sydney 
47. Melbourne 
48. Western Bulldogs 
49. West Coast 
50. Adelaide 
51. Port Adelaide
52. Sydney  
53. Port Adelaide
54. West Coast
55. Richmond 

ROUND FOUR

56. Sydney
57. North Melbourne 
58. St Kilda
59. Hawthorn
60. Adelaide
61. Essendon
62. Melbourne
63. Melbourne
64. Brisbane
65. North Melbourne 
66. Hawthorn 
67. Essendon 
68. Greater Western Sydney 
69. Collingwood
70. Gold Coast
71. St Kilda 
72. Essendon
73. Richmond

ROUND FIVE

74. Adelaide 
75. North Melbourne
76. Sydney 
77. Hawthorn 
78. Gold Coast
79. Essendon
80. Brisbane 
81. Carlton 
82. Greater Western Sydney
83. Melbourne 
84. Western Bulldogs 
85. West Coast 
86. Collingwood 
87. St Kilda
88. Brisbane
89. Port Adelaide
90. Geelong
91. Richmond

* Fremantle have a third selection in Round Six
 

be interesting to see how different the final draft order ends up being after free agency compensation, and points being utilised accordingly on father-sons, next gen academies, etc.