On 4/22/2019 at 12:06 PM, Sir Why You Little said:

I came across this last night. 

Scary reading as the problem is getting worse with each loss...

A DEElightful set of numbers SW.... ok here's a summary of our highs and lows for the 2019 season to Rnd 5.  It would appear the mid field still has a heartbeat but the remainder is on life support  There is still effort (tackling) but we are equally the worst ball handlers in the league (No.1 in clangers) along with the Tigers (yes there is hope tomorrow night folks!).  Anyone have access to pressure point stats 2018 v 2019?  P.S. Don't take too much notice of clangers.  Turnover stat is a little more meaningful IMHO.  We are only ranked 3rd here (yikes!) ...the Tigers 13th (lower ranking is better in this case in case anyone is wondering) ?...

High Rankings		Low Rankings
●  Ranked 4th in Tackles Per Game   ●  Ranked 2nd in Hitouts Per Game   ●  Ranked 3rd in Inside 50s Per Game   ●  Ranked 2nd in Clearances Per Game   ●  Ranked 1st in Clangers Per Game   ●  Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Hitouts Per Game   ●  Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 3rd in Team to Opponent Inside 50s Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Clearances Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Clangers Per Game Diff.     ●  Ranked 16th in Kicks Per Game   ●  Ranked 15th in Handballs Per Game   ●  Ranked 17th in Disposals Per Game   ●  Ranked 18th in Marks Per Game   ●  Ranked 14th in Points Per Game   ●  Ranked 17th in Rebound 50s Per Game   ●  Ranked 15th in least Opponent Kicks Per Game   ●  Ranked 16th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game   ●  Ranked 16th in least Opponent Disposals Per Game   ●  Ranked 18th in least Opponent Points Per Game   ●  Ranked 18th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game   ●  Ranked 17th in least Opponent Goal Assists Per Game   ●  Ranked 16th in least Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game   ●  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 14th in Team to Opponent Handballs Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Goal Assists Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game Diff. Stats:  Courtesy of footywire.com

Edited April 23, 20196 yr by Rusty Nails

We would have to be the best worst team every as it currently stands. Winning the ball in key areas and actually giving our forwards a chance but breaking down in every other part of the ground.

36 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

A DEElightful set of numbers SW.... ok here's a summary of our highs and lows for the 2019 season to Rnd 5.  It would appear the mid field still has a heartbeat but the remainder is on life support  There is still effort (tackling) but we are equally the worst ball handlers in the league (No.1 in clangers) along with the Tigers (yes there is hope tomorrow night folks!).  Anyone have access to pressure point stats 2018 v 2019?  P.S. Don't take too much notice of clangers.  Turnover stat is a little more meaningful IMHO.  We are only ranked 3rd here (yikes!) ...the Tigers 13th (lower ranking is better in this case in case anyone is wondering) ?...

High Rankings		Low Rankings
●  Ranked 4th in Tackles Per Game   ●  Ranked 2nd in Hitouts Per Game   ●  Ranked 3rd in Inside 50s Per Game   ●  Ranked 2nd in Clearances Per Game   ●  Ranked 1st in Clangers Per Game   ●  Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Hitouts Per Game   ●  Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 3rd in Team to Opponent Inside 50s Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Clearances Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Clangers Per Game Diff.     ●  Ranked 16th in Kicks Per Game   ●  Ranked 15th in Handballs Per Game   ●  Ranked 17th in Disposals Per Game   ●  Ranked 18th in Marks Per Game   ●  Ranked 14th in Points Per Game   ●  Ranked 17th in Rebound 50s Per Game   ●  Ranked 15th in least Opponent Kicks Per Game   ●  Ranked 16th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game   ●  Ranked 16th in least Opponent Disposals Per Game   ●  Ranked 18th in least Opponent Points Per Game   ●  Ranked 18th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game   ●  Ranked 17th in least Opponent Goal Assists Per Game   ●  Ranked 16th in least Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game   ●  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 14th in Team to Opponent Handballs Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Goal Assists Per Game Diff.   ●  Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game Diff. Stats:  Courtesy of footywire.com

And this could go on for another 4 years!!!

Select Season Stat Rankings - 2018 v 2019 (inclusive to Rnd 5)

 

On 4/22/2019 at 12:06 PM, Sir Why You Little said:

I came across this last night. 

Scary reading as the problem is getting worse with each loss...

I'd suggest that we're getting better, not worse. The number of minutes per goal has lengthened in the last three streaks. The second of the 6 goals against Geelong took 17 minutes, or 1 goal per 2.8 minutes; the R3 8 goals were spread over at least 23 minutes or 1 goal per 2.9 minutes and the R5 8 goals were over an estimated 32 minutes, or 1 goal per 4 minutes.

 

Just in case it's necessary, I point out that the above text is written in "tongue-in-cheek" font. 

4 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Select Season Stat Rankings - 2018 v 2019 (inclusive to Rnd 5)

 

Wow, thanks Rusty.  Look at the pain points:  Marks i50 and contested, Uncontested possessions and effective disposals.  Closely followed by turnovers.  Tale of the tape right there.  That really describes what we are seeing.  No connection into the forward 50, and a complete rabble there.  Too slow to allow them to mark.  Thrashed in contested marks, no space to have uncontested possessions (although a lot more teams are playing keeping off across HB) and ineffective disposal with the pill, creating turnovers.

I also note we are dead last in doing the 1%ers.  Not putting it in the line for team mates.

Some things (in isolation) dont look so bad.  But we dont play the game in isolation...

Points to key players out of form and poor teamwork

Looking at AFL player ratings so far

Best 5 players this year - Gawn, Brayshaw, Harmes, Oliver, Petracca. The player ratings rewards score assist type of players, which IMO is why Salem is not there (although he is noted as 17th best general defender in the league this year)

Whereas in form decline 2018 to 2019 for the whole league guess who's the worst. TMac...followed by Hibbered, Melksham, Oliver

It's odd that Oliver is in both, but he was rated 4th best in 2018 whereas he's down to 43rd this year

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I'd suggest that we're getting better, not worse. The number of minutes per goal has lengthened in the last three streaks. The second of the 6 goals against Geelong took 17 minutes, or 1 goal per 2.8 minutes; the R3 8 goals were spread over at least 23 minutes or 1 goal per 2.9 minutes and the R5 8 goals were over an estimated 32 minutes, or 1 goal per 4 minutes.

 

Just in case it's necessary, I point out that the above text is written in "tongue-in-cheek" font. 

I hope so, for a moment i thought you were serious!!!

48 minutes ago, Hellish Inferno said:

Looking at AFL player ratings so far

Best 5 players this year - Gawn, Brayshaw, Harmes, Oliver, Petracca. The player ratings rewards score assist type of players, which IMO is why Salem is not there (although he is noted as 17th best general defender in the league this year)

Whereas in form decline 2018 to 2019 for the whole league guess who's the worst. TMac...followed by Hibbered, Melksham, Oliver

It's odd that Oliver is in both, but he was rated 4th best in 2018 whereas he's down to 43rd this year

Interesting to see and, for those players caught by the ratings, a very decent guide as to how they are trending / impacting the game (in a positive way) over the last few seasons vs their peers!

4 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Wow, thanks Rusty.  Look at the pain points:  Marks i50 and contested, Uncontested possessions and effective disposals.  Closely followed by turnovers.  Tale of the tape right there.  That really describes what we are seeing.  No connection into the forward 50, and a complete rabble there.  Too slow to allow them to mark.  Thrashed in contested marks, no space to have uncontested possessions (although a lot more teams are playing keeping off across HB) and ineffective disposal with the pill, creating turnovers.

I also note we are dead last in doing the 1%ers.  Not putting it in the line for team mates.

Some things (in isolation) dont look so bad.  But we dont play the game in isolation...

Cheers Buck.

Contested we are doing fine and are still in the top 2 in the league (dropping only one place since 2018 so far).

We have no major issues with inside mid field coal face contested / clearance work (yet) and i would argue we are still right up there with the top 4.  Yes we may need to tweak set ups / structures around stoppages which might help a little with our ability to cover the outside mids of the opposition when they escape with their own clearance work (run & spread).  Our options to cover impacted by injuries / late pre-season etc impacting in the short term!??  Probably.

On the flip side we might also be shizen on the spread  eg., too many at the contest, winning the contest but then not being able to escape the contest with decent speed / agile outsiders (lacking!?) resulting in another stoppage or worse, a turnover with the Opp then escaping quickly again and off to the races with their more capable / talented outsiders, our ability to close down poor?

So much of the game to work on and get right.  Never easy at any point, especially when you lose some of your best troops and start dialing up the rookies.  Something that we really need to work on at Casey now that we know our depth is virtually non existent, in particular with the spread / speed / crumb & finish (up forward also).

I wouldn't say we are always too slow coming i50 either.  Just the method of delivery.  We talk about chaos footy.  But if we are bombing the ball on top of our forward's heads far too often around the hot spot, that is hardly chaos.  That's predictable footy and something the opp coaches would be licking their chops at.

Tough comp but Goody & Co. need to be better in so many areas, including the ability to seek out an opponent's weekness/s AND train / play to exploit them (wherever possible)!

Example:  Port realised they were facing an extremely tough back 6 vs the Eagles.  They knew they wouldn't have much time to play precise footy through the middle against the quality pressure the Eagles usually bring.   Port also knew that regular bombing wasn't likely to work against such a formidable mark/intercept team.  It was also raining (yes this may have happened on the fly!)....but they tried this change of i50 entry method against the reigning premiers on their home turf....and it worked a treat!

https://www.afl.com.au/video/2019-04-23/did-port-show-us-a-new-way-to-beat-the-eagles

 

Edited April 23, 20196 yr by Rusty Nails

Round 6, 2019 Tigers vs Demons MCG (ANZAC Eve)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Tigers winning by 26 points
 

Team weighted score (includes best estimate for official Ins/Outs)

Tigers  65.58    Demons  60.78

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                        Tigers                                                         Demons

      

                                                    Bottom 6

                        Tigers                                                         Demons

    

*Omitted this round (6) 2019

Edited April 23, 20196 yr by Rusty Nails

On 4/22/2019 at 12:06 PM, Sir Why You Little said:

I came across this last night. 

Scary reading as the problem is getting worse with each loss...

A long term Melbourne trait.  

Easy to score against and can’t stop runs.  Even last year when we were winning.  

5 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

This: I also note we are dead last in doing the 1%ers - doesn't necessarily equate to this - Not putting it in the line for team mates.

For example, spoiling is a 1%er - half the goals scored against us the defenders can't even get across to apply pressure, and other times they are outsized in the marking contest. It may not be for lack of effort. Attempted 1%ers aren't measured.

 

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

Rnds 1 to 3 vs Rnds 4 to 6, 2019

A lift in statistical performance/output trends from some but a severe drop off from others.   Overall we see lift off in a team team sense in the second latest block of three matches but off a very low base vs the first three rounds.  We gained the benefits of Nev in Rnd 5 but then lost that immediately.  We now lose Viney from the mix for a few weeks from here.

While the introduction of Stretch has given us something, the form of Weids, Hunt, Fritsch and Melk (to a lessor degree vs those three) has dropped off significantly from the first three rounds and, with McDonald in the backline, this has left us super impotent up forward.

The absence of anyone playing a significant role as a forward in the top 10, with the exception of possibly Harmes, might be an indicator that some aspects of the team are going ok to average (mid field ok / defenders average so far) vs a failed game forward of center to this point.

Note:  Players with an asterisk are those, for example, who may have only played one match in the 2nd block (Rnds 4 to 6) or one/none in the first block etc.  Marty Hore and Nev great examples.  Marty having only played one match in the first block and Nev only one in the second.  As we are unable to compare averages in these situations we should be more sceptical of % / Rank comparisons vs when we have averages to work on.

Edited April 29, 20196 yr by Rusty Nails

Loving your work Rusty.  A quick question:  What would the team average be for an elite team - say Geelong this year, West Coast at their peak last year?  

I agree with your observations about average ratings across the park and nothing forward.  This is a significant concern.

24 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

Rnds 1 to 3 vs Rnds 4 to 6, 2019

A lift in statistical performance/output trends from some but a severe drop off from others.   Overall we see lift off in a team team sense in the second latest block of three matches but off a very low base vs the first three rounds.  We gained the benefits of Nev in Rnd 5 but then lost that immediately.  We now lose Viney from the mix for a few weeks from here.

While the introduction of Stretch has given us something, the form of Weids, Hunt, Fritsch and Melk (to a lessor degree vs those three) has dropped off significantly from the first three rounds and, with McDonald in the backline, this has left us super impotent up forward.

The absence of anyone playing a significant role as a forward in the top 10, with the exception of possibly Harmes, might be an indicator that some aspects of the team are going ok to average (mid field ok / defenders average so far) vs a failed game forward of center to this point.

Note:  Players with an asterisk are those, for example, who may have only played one match in the 2nd block (Rnds 4 to 6) or one/none in the first block etc.  Marty Hore and Nev great examples.  Marty having only played one match in the first block and Nev only one in the second.  As we are unable to compare averages in these situations we should be more sceptical of % / Rank comparisons vs when we have averages to work on.

That orange,  is really difficult to read,  'rusty'.  maybe too small...  text?

I don't know how these stats are collected, but one significant difference in disposal stats between this year and every previous year is that Champion Data is now recording the kick in (or a hand pass) from a behind as a disposal which wan't the case previously. This will inflate the number of disposals for those who do the kick-ins, which would appear to be primarily Lewis and Salem. That's not to denigrate them - I'd rather the ball was in their hands when kicking in, but it might cause people to misunderstand the data. 

1 hour ago, buck_nekkid said:

Loving your work Rusty.  A quick question:  What would the team average be for an elite team - say Geelong this year, West Coast at their peak last year?  

I agree with your observations about average ratings across the park and nothing forward.  This is a significant concern.

Cheers Buck✌?

Can't do averages on other teams but happy to do a one off.  Too much work putting blocks of data together over 3 to 4 weeks outside of us unfortunately.  Divorce more likely than usual!  Pick a team/week you want to look at and I'll post player, team, top 6 and bottom 6 scores no problem.  One offs don't take too much effort.

Happy to do say Cats or Eagles from this Rnd.  Score wont be based on averages but at leaat a rough form guide/snapshot.  I'll also post ours from same round using same method to compare including top & bottom 6.

In answer to seasonal in form team scores, we were averaging a team weighted score of 60.95 for the entire 2018 season.  The first three Rnds we averaged approx 14% below that and the last three rounds we were again off by approx 5%.  Thats a fair improvement but still a chunk away from our 'normal' form/output across last year.

1 hour ago, DV8 said:

That orange,  is really difficult to read,  'rusty'.  maybe too small...  text?

Have you tried magnifying it DV?  Trying to squash it a little.  If i don't it tends to dissapear off screen when phones are held in portrait mode.  Landscape usually works but ppl don't usually scroll phones in landscape.

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I don't know how these stats are collected, but one significant difference in disposal stats between this year and every previous year is that Champion Data is now recording the kick in (or a hand pass) from a behind as a disposal which wan't the case previously. This will inflate the number of disposals for those who do the kick-ins, which would appear to be primarily Lewis and Salem. That's not to denigrate them - I'd rather the ball was in their hands when kicking in, but it might cause people to misunderstand the data. 

Good point LDV.  My understanding is it only counts once they've crossed the line vs previous years they had to be in a "play on" situation (ie, kicking it to themselves first) before it was counted.

Keep in mind that the 3 week comparisons I posted above only apply to the current year (excluding the team score comparison to last year).  I also only include 'effective disposals' in the weighted score so that should go a little way towards weeding out any old kick/handball that might not favour us, including those from Lewis/Salem on kick ins for example.

1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Have you tried magnifying it DV?  Trying to squash it a little.  If i don't it tends to dissapear off screen when phones are held in portrait mode.  Landscape usually works but ppl don't usually scroll phones in landscape.

just did now. 110%_   It's not any better.  I'm have trouble with that fluro orange.   Its the contrast, I'm having trouble with the lack of contrast.

1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Cheers Buck✌?

Can't do averages on other teams but happy to do a one off.  Too much work putting blocks of data together over 3 to 4 weeks outside of us unfortunately.  Divorce more likely than usual!  Pick a team/week you want to look at and I'll post player, team, top 6 and bottom 6 scores no problem.  One offs don't take too much effort.

Happy to do say Cats or Eagles from this Rnd.  Score wont be based on averages but at leaat a rough form guide/snapshot.  I'll also post ours from same round using same method to compare including top & bottom 6.

In answer to seasonal in form team scores, we were averaging a team weighted score of 60.95 for the entire 2018 season.  The first three Rnds we averaged approx 14% below that and the last three rounds we were again off by approx 5%.  Thats a fair improvement but still a chunk away from our 'normal' form/output across last year.

Perfect, that was probably the better question - “how did WE average at our best?”  14% off is massive. 5% off is still enough to get towelled up.  Don’t want Mrs Rusty to get upset, so this answers the question.  It will be interesting to see if we can pull our team average up and see it show up on the scoreboard.

3 hours ago, DV8 said:

That orange,  is really difficult to read,  'rusty'.  maybe too small...  text?

I think you may be colour-blind DV8. Do you ever find yourself yelling at the Demons on TV and for some odd reason the commentators won't stop blabbing on about Patrick Cripps?