Round 1 team 2019

[WERRIDEE 5,479]

On ‎1‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 8:47 PM, Deemania since 56 said:

Broken ankle or not, Dixon will still kill OMac.

Pretty sure O.Mac beat him last time.

[Gator 17,381]

B:   Jetta       O. MacDonald       Hore

The best lockdown small defender in the leaghue, plus Oscar, who's traditionally played FB on the opposition's best tall.  He should be better again after another preseason.  Hore is a very good reader of the play and intercept mark.  He takes Lever's role.

HB: Hunt             May                 Hibberd

Having recently read an article on Salem and the measures he's going to to improve and have more midfield minutes means I'll slot him onto a wing and put a rejuvenated Hunt back to half-back.  This line is as quick as it gets in the league.  May is super fast for Dees supporters who may not be aware.

C    Salem           Viney               Brayshaw   

The silky Salem may just go to another level in 2019.  Hopefully Viney can play 20 games in the H&A.  And the all-round skills of Brayshaw should keep getting better.

R:   Gawn            Oliver              Harmes

The best ruckman in the league, the best young midfielder in the league, and the best tagger in the league.  

HF: Petracca     Weideman      Neal-Bullen

I didn't think Petracca was ready last year to elevate his game, but do this year.  Just a hunch.  I unashamedly (along with some others) think Weideman will be a star of the MFC.  He'll improve again in 2019.  Neal-Bullen is in the top 10 pressure forward/mids in the game, plus he hits the scoreboard.

F:  Melksham    T. McDonald    Spargo

Melksham is the best user inside 50 in the game and great in a one-v-one contest.  What can you say about Plugger McDonald ?  A revelation, who's kicked 76 goals in his last 31 games.  One of the best key forwards now in the game.  And young Spargo is smart and tough, but will have to work hard to keep his position.

I/C: Jones           Fritsch           vandenBerg            Kolodjashnij

This bench is about as good as it gets (so are the emergencies).  I look forward to see Fitsch and Kolodjashnij rotate through the wings and half-back with Salem, while it's great that vandenBerg gets a shot at being injury free for a whole season.  Jones may have to reinvent himself again.  Let's hope he can.

E:  Lewis           Hannan            Frost             Stretch

Lewis may start round one, but the pressure is mounting even if he makes it out against Port.  Hannan will play plenty of games.  He just needs to get more touches.  Frost is great back-up and may take the Hore or even Oscar role, but he doesn't quite make my team.  Let's hope Stretch can show his worth.  He's definitely handy depth at worst.

And there's still Garlett, Preuss, Joel Smith, Sparrow, Baker and plenty of others who'll stake their claim.

What I'm most excited about is the names that are starting to rotate through this midfield.  Gawn, Oliver, Brayshaw, Viney, Harmes, Salem, Petracca, Fritsch, and Kolodjashnij.  Plus Jones and vandenBerg.  It's about as exciting as it gets.  No wonder Tyson got on his bike.

Lever will only make this line-up stronger.  

And I really hope Hunt can also improve and be a player that can make a real difference.  I think the coaching group have him firmly in their plans.

Naturally, teams are subject to change post JLT 2.

[Neil Crompton 5,570]

Nice piece of work ProDee. The only selection I'd question at this early stage is Hunt - as much as I'd like for him to be there, he may have to earn his spot again. Joel Smith i think will get a gig before him initially - not sure what position though.

[Slartibartfast 17,326]

17 hours ago, ProDee said:

B:   Jetta       O. MacDonald       Hore

The best lockdown small defender in the leaghue, plus Oscar, who's traditionally played FB on the opposition's best tall.  He should be better again after another preseason.  Hore is a very good reader of the play and intercept mark.  He takes Lever's role.

HB: Hunt             May                 Hibberd

 

2

Love your work PD.  Like Crompton I don't hold the optimism for Hunt that you do.  I think disposal skills, vision and decision making will be paramount this year and whilst Hunt has some elite attributes I think these things will hold him back.  Salem or Fritsch take his spot back.  Also like KK ahead of Hore who I've only seem briefly in VFL footy so he misses because I know more about KK.

Smith finds a spot forward where his kicking and decision making is not such an issue but his athleticism and speed are real assets and I really like Old55's idea of him playing a stopping role on the oppositions intercept marker.

Hannan gets the other spot although I'm not sure he'll be ready for round 1. Lewis probably gets it in the short term.  Tinkering at the edges I know.  As you point out, there is a lot of competition for the last 5 or 6 spots and traditionally a player or two come into the team nobody was expecting.  Baker, Sparrow, Bedford, Hore.......

[Gator 17,381]

3 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Love your work PD.  Like Crompton I don't hold the optimism for Hunt that you do.  I think disposal skills, vision and decision making will be paramount this year and whilst Hunt has some elite attributes I think these things will hold him back.  Salem or Fritsch take his spot back.  Also like KK ahead of Hore who I've only seem briefly in VFL footy so he misses because I know more about KK.

Smith finds a spot forward where his kicking and decision making is not such an issue but his athleticism and speed are real assets and I really like Old55's idea of him playing a stopping role on the oppositions intercept marker.

Hannan gets the other spot although I'm not sure he'll be ready for round 1. Lewis probably gets it in the short term.  Tinkering at the edges I know.  As you point out, there is a lot of competition for the last 5 or 6 spots and traditionally a player or two come into the team nobody was expecting.  Baker, Sparrow, Bedford, Hore.......

I can't argue with much/any of that.  It's more wishful thinking re Hunt and gut feel re Hore.  Kolodjashnij on a wing rotating with Fritsch and Salem through half-back with Hore in the Lever/Langdon (Collingwood) intercept defender's role.

I've been a fan of Joel Smith, but I've lost faith.  He's incredibly brave and athletic, but a complete scatterbrain with his decision making and has very poor foot-skills.  But yes, I'm aware the coaching hierarchy like him.

[george_on_the_outer 7,606]

Not sure Jones will be available R1. Just doing boxing at training prior to Maroochydore, and the video seemed to indicate more of the same up there. No running is not a good sign this close to season start.

Still, we have plenty of options to fill the gap.....

[Watson11 2,241]

48 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Love your work PD.  Like Crompton I don't hold the optimism for Hunt that you do.  I think disposal skills, vision and decision making will be paramount this year and whilst Hunt has some elite attributes I think these things will hold him back.  Salem or Fritsch take his spot back.  Also like KK ahead of Hore who I've only seem briefly in VFL footy so he misses because I know more about KK.

Smith finds a spot forward where his kicking and decision making is not such an issue but his athleticism and speed are real assets and I really like Old55's idea of him playing a stopping role on the oppositions intercept marker.

Hannan gets the other spot although I'm not sure he'll be ready for round 1. Lewis probably gets it in the short term.  Tinkering at the edges I know.  As you point out, there is a lot of competition for the last 5 or 6 spots and traditionally a player or two come into the team nobody was expecting.  Baker, Sparrow, Bedford, Hore.......

Prodee's analysis is excellent.  For round 1 though I think we may see at least three changes to the lineup Prodee has.  Hunt out for Lewis.  Hore out for Frost.  KK out for Preuss.

Preuss will definitely be in, unless we want Ryder and Lycett to run Max into the ground in round 1.  KK will be a great player, but after his last 2 seasons it doesn't hurt for him to show some form in Casey first.  Didn't hurt Brayshaw last year.

Hunt needs to get the credits back through some good Casey form as well.  I'm bullish on his season overall.  But you would have to imagine Lewis will play round 1.

Hore is only 189cm, and Port will probably have 3 giants in their forward 50.  Dixon (200cm), Westoff (199cm), sometimes Lycett or Ryder, and probably Marshall (198cm).  Frost is a better matchup for us.

Back onto Hunt.  Interesting article on afl.com (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-07/the-need-for-speed-lions-set-to-go-small-onball).  Speed on the wings will be crucial this year.  I think and hope Hunt will get a good run, and I suspect it may be on the wing.  His speed will be really valuable with the extra space.  He can probably dob them on the run from 50-65m as well which is a better use of the part of his kicking which is strong.  Hoping he is lining up along side Charlie Cameron on the wing by the time we play Brisbane in June.

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,850]

1 hour ago, george_on_the_outer said:

Not sure Jones will be available R1. Just doing boxing at training prior to Maroochydore, and the video seemed to indicate more of the same up there. No running is not a good sign this close to season start.

Still, we have plenty of options to fill the gap.....

And I have doubts Melksham (hammy) will be available either for round 1.

[Josh 1,420]

3 hours ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Love your work PD.  Like Crompton I don't hold the optimism for Hunt that you do.  I think disposal skills, vision and decision making will be paramount this year and whilst Hunt has some elite attributes I think these things will hold him back.  Salem or Fritsch take his spot back.  Also like KK ahead of Hore who I've only seem briefly in VFL footy so he misses because I know more about KK.

Smith finds a spot forward where his kicking and decision making is not such an issue but his athleticism and speed are real assets and I really like Old55's idea of him playing a stopping role on the oppositions intercept marker.

Hannan gets the other spot although I'm not sure he'll be ready for round 1. Lewis probably gets it in the short term.  Tinkering at the edges I know.  As you point out, there is a lot of competition for the last 5 or 6 spots and traditionally a player or two come into the team nobody was expecting.  Baker, Sparrow, Bedford, Hore.......

This is an interesting point. My uncle works for the Sydney Swans academy (who have 2 Issac Heeney clones coming through in the 2020 draft, you heard it here first) and he said that they look for at least 1 elite attribute. He uses Watts vs Scully as an example. Watts never really had entered elite attributes, rather was very good at everything. He says that is why he is now just an average footballer. Scully on the other hand had elite running ability, so it might have taken him a few years to reach AFL standard fitness but now (up untill injuries at least) his elite running capacity started to show through.

It doesn't matter what skill you have but to make it you must be elite in something. Vision, contested marking, tap work, fitness, speed, goal sense.

I think that is why Hunt will make it, his line breaking pace is genuinely elite in the competition. It is a skill that is hard to teach and not many people posess.

[Gator 17,381]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Prodee's analysis is excellent.  For round 1 though I think we may see at least three changes to the lineup Prodee has.  Hunt out for Lewis.  Hore out for Frost.  KK out for Preuss.

Preuss will definitely be in, unless we want Ryder and Lycett to run Max into the ground in round 1.  KK will be a great player, but after his last 2 seasons it doesn't hurt for him to show some form in Casey first.  Didn't hurt Brayshaw last year.

Hunt needs to get the credits back through some good Casey form as well.  I'm bullish on his season overall.  But you would have to imagine Lewis will play round 1.

Hore is only 189cm, and Port will probably have 3 giants in their forward 50.  Dixon (200cm), Westoff (199cm), sometimes Lycett or Ryder, and probably Marshall (198cm).  Frost is a better matchup for us.

Back onto Hunt.  Interesting article on afl.com (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-07/the-need-for-speed-lions-set-to-go-small-onball).  Speed on the wings will be crucial this year.  I think and hope Hunt will get a good run, and I suspect it may be on the wing.  His speed will be really valuable with the extra space.  He can probably dob them on the run from 50-65m as well which is a better use of the part of his kicking which is strong.  Hoping he is lining up along side Charlie Cameron on the wing by the time we play Brisbane in June.

 

Intercept marking is less about height and more about timing and reading the play.

The 189cm Doedee replaced Lever remarkably well and Langdon (190cm) in the GF was excellent with his intercept marking.  And you'll note West Coast had talls like Darling, Kennedy, Lycett, and Vardy in the line-up.

Frost may well play ahead of Hore, but I'd prefer someone who's noted for his ability to intercept mark, like Hore.

I'm just not a fan of playing all of Gawn, Weideman, McDonald, and Preuss, but you may be right.

Btw, I don't think anyone needs to "find form at Casey".  That's what 4 months of training, JLT matches, and any other practice matches are for.

[binman 43,051]

Yep, not a bad lineup PD. I assume that is how you would select the team, not a prediction of the lineup.

To be honest i don't really know enough about Hore, so will take your word for it.

I can't see Salem playing wing and Hunt at HB. I can see the opposite however.

Hunt's kicking is not good enough for HB (so important to have good kicks there) and he isn't great one on one. Salem has become a natural defender and is our best kick hunts pace will be best used on the wing i think.

I'm not sure if i would pick Pruess, probably not, but in terms of predicting the round one lineup i think he will play. i don't think Hore will play, don't think KK will (but won't be surprised if he does) and suspect Smith will play up forward. 

 

[Gator 17,381]

I'd only play Hunt HB.  He's best with the footy in front of him.  His kicking is adequate enough to spot up players off half- back, but not adequate enough to be regularly hitting a target inside forward 50.

He's either at half-back or at Casey.

Salem has already said he'll be playing more midfield this year, so if that's the case it will most definitely be from a wing.

Edited February 7, 2019 by ProDee

[binman 43,051]

I assume you mean you would only play Hunt at hb?

I take your point about his difficulty hitting targets inside 50 - his kicking is a concern wherever he plays. But better kicking inside 50 than from defence and his bomb it style suits our strategy of long chaos ball kicks into our 50.

[Gator 17,381]

Don't do the ''bomb it style''.  Get him to play more within his limitations.  

Salem was a gun midfielder as a junior and while he hasn't shone in the midfield thus far his skill-set is far better suited to a wing than Hunt's.  Salem is getting better and I can see him, Kolodjashnij, and Fritsch all rotating through wing, half-back and the bench.

Salem has so far better suited to half-back at AFL level, but he may just develop to be a quality midfielder.  I think it's worth trying, because we now have a plethora of players that are good behind the ball - Lewis, Hunt, Salem, Hibberd, Fritsch, Kolodjashnij.  They can't all play there.

I also could be wrong re Hunt, Salem, Preuss and a number of other things.

It's all speculation.

Edited February 7, 2019 by ProDee

[DeeSpencer 25,718]

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

Don't do the ''bomb it style''.  Get him to play more within his limitations.  

Salem was a gun midfielder as a junior and while he hasn't shone in the midfield thus far his skill-set is far better suited to a wing than Hunt's.  Salem is getting better and I can see him, Kolodjashnij, and Fritsch all rotating through wing, half-back and the bench.

Salem is better suited to half-back, but he may just develop to be a quality midfielder.  I think it's worth trying, because we now have a plethora of players that are good behind the ball - Lewis, Hunt, Salem, Hibberd, Fritsch, Kolodjashnij.  They can't all play there.

I also could be wrong re Hunt, Salem, Preuss and a number of other things.

It's all speculation.

I can see the benefits of trying Salem on ball again as we did to start last year. Sure would be nice to have Viney and Oliver handballing to Salem rather than more crash and bash types. It's the role Higgins plays beautifully for North just getting it fed to him by Cunnington. 

But particularly if we decide to move on from Lewis as a permanent fixture I think Salem has to inherit the leadership of the backline. Roos compared him to McVeigh last year and I want him in that role. Yeah to mix things up he could swap with the wingers to change match ups or get others in to the game but I wouldn't want a more consistent rotation if he's going to be the guy. 

Preuss' best chance involves only playing around 60% game time in a tight game I think. Pretty much covering Gawn, T Mc and Weid when they're on the bench and otherwise spending some solid time on the pine himself. Harmes, Fritsch and Oliver probably play a little forward and Vanders and Petracca have to cover some midfield minutes and you go in with one less mid/forward rotation player. I doubt we'll see it in round 1 because fitness and run is vital in round 1. 

Joel Smith - I thought he was building nicely as a backman even with the disposal/decision making faults. It seems for now anyway they've scrapped that idea. Maybe the Hawks influence that there's just no point having bad kicks in your backline, they cost you too much. Maybe a couple more years training as a forward and he could still end up down back to replace guys like Hibberd and Jetta in time. No one knows what he can do as a forward, but he might get an early chance due to his fitness. Athletic defenders as pressure words are popular across the comp, the Tigers do it very well with Castagna. Very different player but if Melksham isn't right I could see them using Smith as the extra height even as a pressure player and maybe freeing Spargo up to give a bit of skill. Keen to see if Spargo escapes the 2nd year blues. 

[Neil Crompton 5,570]

For someone who has come from a basketball background and who has only played 11 AFL games, i think Joel Smith is doing extremely well. Both his skill level and his "footy smarts" should come with more experience. If these elements come along to the same level as his defensive skills and his athleticism, I think he could end up a gun mid field player one day.

[Alex Flood 245]

After watching the scratch match against Collingwood (not taking it too seriously) but I think Pruess is in for a big year playing a Mason Cox type of role. Dude used to be a forward so it’s not like he’s unfamiliar with the role & has a cannon of a boot on him. He’s also got a pretty good mark & is actually deceptively quicker than he looks.

i just think having the 3 talls of Pruess, TMac & Weideman is a good idea because it puts less pressure on each of them. That with Petracca, Melksham & Spargo/Garlett/ANB/Fritsh will make us unstoppable up forward.

[Diamond_Jim 12,592]

The momentum for the inclusion of Preuss is interesting.

As pointed out in another thread when he has been played with Goldstein (an AA ruckman) in the past at North the results were not outstanding. Similarly a Pedersen/Gawn combination has rarely set the world on fire to the best of my recollection.

I can see the logic of counter arguments in that it worked for the Eagles in the GF, the rule changes and giving Gawn a rest etc but the fact remains that in the long term the second ruckman needs to justify his position as a contributing player and not merely a relief ruckman.

Another concern I have is that the inclusion of Preuss must to some extent come at the expense of one less midfielder or similar which begs the question of team balance against faster running teams.

Could be an interesting conundrum.

[Skuit 10,031]

23 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The momentum for the inclusion of Preuss is interesting.

As pointed out in another thread when he has been played with Goldstein (an AA ruckman) in the past at North the results were not outstanding. Similarly a Pedersen/Gawn combination has rarely set the world on fire to the best of my recollection.

 

That may have been me who pointed that out but I should have also added a few caveats: extremely small sample-base, no contextual insight, and not accounting for natural development. Also: changes in the sport.

I haven't really put my brain to work on the 666 or open kick-in paddock rule changes yet, but the 666 will likely mean a higher number of clean centre-breaks coupled with greater immediate or more contested forward congestion.

It seems contradictory, but 6 vs 6 in the forward line will result in less space and more complication for forwards than 7 (a spare defender) vs 5. Especially when they're all actually crammed in there - compared to what was previously more like 5 v 4 at the fall of the bounce.

Thus, getting a clean break from the centre-bounce will likely lead to extra quick bombs forward - which was already half of our game-plan - the other half being the idea to trap it in with forward pressure and a high, forward-rolling press, which in turn will be impacted by the newly loose goal-square. 

Conclusions: an extra serious-sized tall will be useful for the centre-break bombs. That tall comes at the expense of a medium/small, who would otherwise be less useful in roving the spoil due to reduced space, and a little less useful in trapping/forcing a point because it's going to come back out more easily anyway.

I'm sure there is some logic flaw here. But all that said, I was never a fan of the suggestion of playing Gawn and Spencil together, and I'm not convinced that Pruess currently offers anything more than Spencer ever did other than some extra grunt.

[DeeSpencer 25,718]

FB: Jetta  May  Hibberd
HB: Hunt   Oscar  Lewis
C; Vanders  Oliver  Fritsch
HF: Petracca  T Mc   ANB
FF: Spargo  Weid   Melksham
Foll: Gawn  Brayshaw  Viney
Int: Salem, Harmes,  wing/back, forward/wing

Of those 20 you can mount a small case against Oscar (for Frost on a speedy tall), Lewis (for Hore), and Weid (if Preuss is preferred) although I think they are all pretty established in the side. Hunt is probably the only one who's a little iffy and I'd back him in.

Yet to prove fitness: May, Oliver, Viney, Melksham, McDonald, Jones

In contention: Hore, Frost, JKH, Jones, J. Smith, T. Smith, C. Wagner, Stretch, Preuss
Smokie: Baker - a small chance he follows the pathway that Hannan and Brayshaw have done in recent years in blitzing a Casey practice game and coming in to the side for round 1.

If they play Salem on a wing then Hore is the standout choice to come in to the back 7. If Salem plays half back then the other wing options come in to play - JKH, Stretch or a healthy Jones. KK an option but seems very unlikely he'll be fit.

The 7th forward is the discussion for Preuss v J/T Smith v C Wagner v going the extra midfielder and using Fritsch and Vanders forward. 

If I were betting right now it would be Hore and J Smith for the last 2 spots with Jones declared not ready

[Diamond_Jim 12,592]

A great post Skuit.

Another thought is that it may well be Gawn who we look upon as the versatile second ruckman with Preuss doing the bulk of the heavy work.

Sounds stupid when you have an AA ruck but it may just be the edge

[Neil Crompton 5,570]

I must be missing something (probably just dumb), but i cannot see how the 666 rule is going to change things too much at all.

At the centre bounce, aren't there still only 8 players in the square? And won't the wings still run in as they used to? possibly from the rear of the square now, as the extra man back used to do? If this hasn't changed, where will the impact be, at least in the square? 

Also, i don't see how a man-on-man forward and backline at the bounce will cause crowding.

Can someone smarter than me please explain this?

 

[DeeSpencer 25,718]

9 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

I must be missing something (probably just dumb), but i cannot see how the 666 rule is going to change things too much at all.

At the centre bounce, aren't there still only 8 players in the square? And won't the wings still run in as they used to? possibly from the rear of the square now, as the extra man back used to do? If this hasn't changed, where will the impact be, at least in the square? 

Also, i don't see how a man-on-man forward and backline at the bounce will cause crowding.

Can someone smarter than me please explain this?

 

Quote

As expected, ‘traditional’ playing positions will be enforced at centre bounces next year, with six players required to start in the two 50m arcs and four in the centre square zone, with two on the wings. Each team will need to start with one player inside each goalsquare.

The wings have to be on the wings. The forwards and backs have to be forward or back. So a clean centre clearance can give a midfielder more time to steady up and deliver inside 50 to an even number of forwards and backs. With a designated full forward out of the goal square who - if a team plays man to man - could have a decent amount of space in front of them and therefore a one on one contest in space.

The reality is more times than not teams will defend the centre clearance well enough to pressure the kick and there will still be a pack situation inside 50 or on the flank where the ball is bombed to.

That said, there's a chance for someone with some class like Brayshaw to get the ball on the run and deliver long (helps if you can do it on both feet) to a forward in space. Or an explosive player like Viney, Petracca or Vanders to burst through the square in to some clear room.

2 rucks may be important because you don't want to allow a team to get a clean break from the middle now you can't stack a spare back. I still think a good athletic key forward is a worthwhile option but using someone like Grigg wouldn't be because you can't be non competitive and let the opposition just feed the hit out straight to their best mids.

[Diamond_Jim 12,592]

2 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The wings have to be on the wings. The forwards and backs have to be forward or back. So a clean centre clearance can give a midfielder more time to steady up and deliver inside 50 to an even number of forwards and backs. With a designated full forward out of the goal square who - if a team plays man to man - could have a decent amount of space in front of them and therefore a one on one contest in space.

 

Can just imagine the number of "centre square" infringements we are going to have as all these players run various ways the moment the ball is bounced

[Gator 17,381]

I'll answer my own question to @don't make me angry from another thread here, because this is the appropriate thread and because I'm virtually certain they won't answer my question.

West Coast play a possession game centred around kicking and marking.  It's why they took almost 400 more marks than Melbourne from the same amount of games and had over 400 more kicks.  This game-style and structure is more conducive to playing a second ruck if they're athletic like Vardy, if you have other quick mobile tall leading forwards like Darling and Kennedy, and if you're more of a tempo/controlled team moving the ball forward.

Melbourne play a high pressure and more chaotic game that is based around the territory game and the production of inside 50s.  Melbourne was no.1 for inside 50s in 2018.  Melbourne's goal is to either retain the ball inside 50 through pressure, have repeat entries, and obviously score.  My concern with Preuss is that if he's not taking marks and hitting the scoreboard he becomes a liability.  We lose a pressure player with Preuss in the team.

Melbourne had the highest metres gained differential last year (460) with Richmond second (403) and Collingwood third (281).  All three teams finished top four, so it's a handy metric.  West Coast were eighth (138), but still in positive territory, through their different, yet effective means.  

My point ?  What works for West Coast, and potentially other teams, i.e. two rucks, won't necessarily work for Melbourne.  I'm sure they'll try it and occasionally use it, but I very much doubt it will become the norm.

But if it does and it works fantastic.