Farewell Jesse Hogan

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

23 minutes ago, ProDee said:

If Freo want Hogan I want Cerra.  I know he just extended his contract, but he's a Victorian boy who may like the idea of coming home.  Cerra is going to be a phenomenal midfielder and he's just the class we need.  Even next year, his second, he'd be a staple in our best team.  Freo will say he's off limits, but this is where it's good to have the whip hand.

I watched a handful of Eastern games last year in which Cerra featured.

He was unbelievable. A step above the rest in just about every facet. 

Agree we should ask the question. 

[SFebes 4,884]

1 minute ago, Demon Disciple said:

No matter what we get in return, losing Hogan instantly makes us a worse team. He is an a-grade CHF with at least 9 year’s of footy ahead of him. You build teams around blokes with his level of talent.

He is a known quantity, a very valuable quantity. Draft picks (no matter how high) are an unknown quantity and remain so for a few years once drafted. 

2 top 10 picks has to be the minimum, and that is to try and bring in ready made talent, our time of relying on the draft is over, we are building for the now.

The only drafting of KPP kids I would dare dream of is the King twins. And that is a pipe dream that would still take years to come to fruition.

We beat WCE, GWS, Geel and HAW without Hogan, we've got to remember that also. His record against the better teams was poor.

[Guest]

Trade season is always fun for watching people become outraged at totally hypothetical scenarios.

[rjay 25,345]

2 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

I watched a handful of Eastern games last year in which Cerra featured.

He was unbelievable. A step above the rest in just about every facet. 

Agree we should ask the question. 

I think we should more than ask the question...it would be Cerra or bust.

I hope we're in his ear now.

If they want Hogan they have to pay overs.

[Moonshadow 17,678]

26 minutes ago, SFebes said:

I also hope that in the back of Jesse's mind, he respects and demands us getting maximum value for him considering how the club have treated him through all of his issues since day one, I hope he says to Freo, I want Melb to be looked after, much like Danger did with the Crows.

Didn't Adelaide get pick 9, 28 and Dean Gore for Danger and a late pick? If we got similar for Jesse there would be a riot in the Long Room

[Jones 62]

3 minutes ago, rjay said:

I think we should more than ask the question...it would be Cerra or bust.

I hope we're in his ear now.

If they want Hogan they have to pay overs.

We have to be careful, because if we don't get a trade done this year he will leave next year and we could potentially get nothing

[special robert 438]

This is madness. We have a shot at a flag over the next few years and we are going to lose one of the best forwards in the game. Are we? Why would he leave now...to go to a bottom side? We should do all we can to retain our stars. FCS the boy is only 20 something. He would make a better backman than May...put Hogan at CHB.........If this comes to pass never ever draft an interstate player again!

[Moonshadow 17,678]

9 minutes ago, ProDee said:

There's no-one fairer than the Dees when it comes to trading.  I'm well aware of that.

And you're probably right.  But Cerra would be the type of outcome I'd like.  I know it's not likely.

Especially given Hogan is contracted for another 12 months. If he wasn't, we'd probably accept less

Doubt we'll do a Dodoro and ask for the farm, but Cerra plus a high pick is reasonable IMO 

[DemonLad5 1,642]

Cerra just signed a new deal. He ain’t leaving so stop using him in scenarios 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,457]

19 minutes ago, Macca said:

Draft picks are severely overrated ... the fact of the matter is that top 5 or top 10 picks are hit and miss.  Half of all first round draft picks are busts in terms of expectations.  B- or worse and the facts bear that out.  And most if not all first round draft picks are standout juniors.

So those are the facts.  Bearing that in mind we did not pay overs for Lever at all.  If you want to believe the bs & spin,  you'll believe otherwise.

So if we want 'like-for-like' for Hogan,  even 2 top-end draft picks doesn't cut it ... the percentage play says 1 of those 2 picks will be a bust and with the other pick,  we have to wait at least 3 years for the prospect to become a decent footballer.

If we want more than 'like-for-like' we'll need more than 2 top-end draft picks.  Too many people including the so-called 'experts' value a draft pick in terms of best-case-scenario.  Which is the wrong way to view matters.  The best way to view it is if you were the CEO of a company setting realistic budgets.

JT, JM & TV have runs on the board though. Salem, Brayshaw, Petracca, Oliver, Weideman - none would be considered busts.

[SFebes 4,884]

13 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Didn't Adelaide get pick 9, 28 and Dean Gore for Danger and a late pick? If we got similar for Jesse there would be a riot in the Long Room

Correct me if I'm wrong but Danger was a free agent and Geelong didn't need to give anything up, at Dangers request he demanded that Crows were looked after, so they were given draft picks.

[Gator 18,009]

4 minutes ago, DemonLad5 said:

Cerra just signed a new deal. He ain’t leaving so stop using him in scenarios 

Didn't McGovern just extend his Contract with Adelaide ?

[old55 23,847]

I'm with @ProDee Hogan is gone unless I hear otherwise - no statement from the club with all the noise going on IS a statement.

Yes we don't need draft picks.  But we can turn that currency into players we need like May.

Freo will be desperate to get this done.  It's their dream deal and they haven't been able to get anything similar done before.  Neale leaving just compounds their need to capitilse on that.

I don't think we will get Cerra but we might get Andrew Brayshaw and a pick that nets May.

[Moonshadow 17,678]

4 minutes ago, DemonLad5 said:

Cerra just signed a new deal. He ain’t leaving so stop using him in scenarios 

Contracts mean little in AFL. We can use him in scenarios if we choose, just like you can choose not to tell us what we can think

[Dr. Gonzo 24,457]

21 minutes ago, SFebes said:

We beat WCE, GWS, Geel and HAW without Hogan, we've got to remember that also. His record against the better teams was poor.

It was, but how much of that was because he was injured. A foot injury shouldn't see a player like him miss regulation marks which he did against Port, Geelong & Adelaide. He does have a tendency to go missing when we need him but in a lot of those games out mids got shut out too. He also has the capacity to kick a big bag (6-8 goals these days) TMac probably the only other on our list to have that in him at this stage but I think 5 is his biggest haul.

[Moonshadow 17,678]

3 minutes ago, SFebes said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but Danger was a free agent and Geelong didn't need to give anything up, at Dangers request he demanded that Crows were looked after, so they were given draft picks.

Yes, quite right. Forget he was a FA

[SFebes 4,884]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

It was, but how much of that was because he was injured. A foot injury shouldn't see a player like him miss regulation marks which he did against Port, Geelong & Adelaide. He does have a tendency to go missing when we need him but in a lot of those games out mids got shut out too. He also has the capacity to kick a big bag (6-8 goals these days) TMac probably the only other on our list to have that in him at this stage but I think 5 is his biggest haul.

I don't buy into the injured card, he played fine in between against poor sides.

[Jones 62]

9 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Didn't McGovern just extend his Contract with Adelaide ?

Irrelevant. There has been no indication from Cerra that he actually wants to leave

[Macca 17,120]

45 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

JT, JM & TV have runs on the board though. Salem, Brayshaw, Petracca, Oliver, Weideman - none would be considered busts.

Your view is a micro view Gonzo ... mine is a macro viiew and therefore the correct view.

Facts are facts ... Stephen Wells for instance went from forever drafting stars to constantly drafting B- players.

And draft picks relate to the system that draft picks are related to ... and the system is flawed and always has been.

Jummy Toumpas,  Cale Morton,  Brock McLean and hundreds of others were star,  standout juniors.  That is why they were top-end draft picks.

If you believe tnat it is just the recruiters constantly making rash or poor decisions you are wrong.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Macca

[Superunknown 4,243]

Editor: "Denham! Where's your next story!?"

Denham: "Cr#p cr#p cr#p! Hmm let me check my snip file! Well well! Ah yes! My annual 'Hogan to Freo' rumour mill! Let's see if this broken clock can finally be right! I'll just check Demonland to see if they have some intel! Well well! A "Hogan to Freo" thread. Capital work, my dear fellows and fellowettes! You have verily written my article for me!" Hits the keyboard

Editor: "What what what? What fresh hell is this? No way Hogan is off to Freo!"

Denham: "Ah -ha! We can go Ryan Holliday on this story! Post this article, reference well - placed sources (cough: Demonland rumourtrage), others will pick it up and off we go!"

Editor: "This had better end in new subscribers for Rupert!"

Denham: "What could go wrong! It's a non story"

Article files.

Demonland explodes.

Article picked up by HS, PerthNow, SEN.

Rumour goes Ryan Holliday.

Demonland goes nuclear.

Jesse's management: "Yo homeboy! Seems Freo is into you. Let me have a chat with them?"

JH: "Sure, I do love the Dees and want to stay but can't hurt to ask"

Mgr to Freo FD: "Yo, wassup with Hoges. Throw some numbers at me"

Freo: "We'll get back to you"

Rumours continue swirling. Demonland is in the final stages of Red Giant phase. People's heads are literally exploding.

Freo puts offer on table. Freo is half surprised by all this.

Hogan convenes meeting with Dees. Deal done.

Hogan to Freo.

Denham to Editor: "Well that escalated quickly, what?"

Editor: "Well it is how Sky News brought down Turnbull. Now pass me that Balvennie would you? This is cause for celebration!"

 

 

And that my friends is how you engineer a player move.

(For those fans of Milligan's " "Rommel?" "Gunner Who?" " I feel it would make things even more ludicrous to read in a clipped German-English accent in the vein of that book.)

Edited September 26, 2018 by Superunknown

[Dockett 32 1,239]

32 minutes ago, Stretch Johnson said:

Trade season is always fun for watching people become outraged at totally hypothetical scenarios.

Yep ,if your going to get into a Judd/Kennedy type trade, make sure you get  an absolute Rools Royce not a clapped out old Holden. Can we get into the Lynch game?

[Gator 18,009]

9 minutes ago, Jones said:

Irrelevant. There has been no indication from Cerra that he actually wants to leave

Do you think your comment is some sort of revelation to me ?  It's painfully obvious I'm speculating on a thread full of speculation.

But if you're familiar at all with Cerra you'll know that Freo were nervous about Cerra and he's often been talked about as a flight risk.  It was a relief and somewhat surprising to many in the industry when he decided to extend.

I've already said he's a longshot, but he's the type of player that would make Hogan leaving palatable.

Any more pearls of wisdom ?

[dl4e 5,851]

If we have to lose Hogan I would be going for shiel. May is a waste of time.

[Moonshadow 17,678]

2 minutes ago, dl4e said:

If we have to lose Hogan I would be going for shiel. May is a waste of time.

Many consider other mids better to target than Shiel, especially for the trade picks and contract amount he'd command. Tend to agree.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

5 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Many consider other mids better to target than Shiel, especially for the trade picks and contract amount he'd command. Tend to agree.

If we got two first rounders out of Freo for Hogan then I'd be throwing both at GWS for Josh Kelly. If Shiel does leave then I doubt they'll entertain the idea, but Kelly is far more suited to us than Shiel is,not to mention being the better player.