Jump to content

Featured Replies

Just now, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Problem is a couple of 4 goal losses to us and our percentage will drop right down.

Geelong are going to do some serious serious damage in the last fortnight down at the Cattery in terms of winning margin. I did the ladder predictor which has Geelong overtaking us on percentage with 2 100 point wins. 

They won't win both by that margin.  Just won't happen.  They might win one, but two in a row isn't in them.  I know Hawkins is in decent form, but they don't have the firepower like they used to.  10 goal wins is more realistic.

 
1 hour ago, Fifty-5 said:

Not really:

  • North and Geelong win all 3
  • 2 of Port, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Sydney win 2

OK i get your drift.

Yes can see North and Geelong winning all 3.

Can see Port beating WC and Ess at home.

Can see Collingwood easily winning 2.

Can see Hawthorn beating St Kilda and Sydney

Can see Sydney beating Melbourne and GWS

Under the above scenario, if we only beat GWS we play finals to knock them out provided they lose the next 2. If we beat WCE (but lose the other 2), remarkably we'd miss finals if all of the above results happened. 

Edited by Bring-Back-Powell

4 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

They won't win both by that margin.  Just won't happen.  They might win one, but two in a row isn't in them.  I know Hawkins is in decent form, but they don't have the firepower like they used to.  10 goal wins is more realistic.

Hope you're right.

But Geez, neither side will be much of an opposition.

And can you imagine how non-competitive GC will be on the road in their final game of the year in hostile territory.

 

so I think there is no reason why we cant win all 3 and if we do then we take second/third place and all these other results don't matter - Like we go past GWS because we beat them and maybe the Eagles as well depending on how they go in their other games. We really need to win this week though to make sure of it. I really rate us in the WCE game and GWS at the G isn't impossible by any stretch. This thing could all go pear shaped but I think the media is overplaying our not beaten a top side stuff we have only played like 4-5 and 3 of those were games where we really should have won.

Just now, highroller said:

but I think the media is overplaying our not beaten a top side stuff we have only played like 4-5 and 3 of those were games where we really should have won.

We haven't beaten a top 8 side, but geez that Adelaide win at Adelaide Oval well and truly stacks up, considering we were 20 points down in the second quarter. And then Adelaide's big win on the weekend.


6 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Hope you're right.

But Geez, neither side will be much of an opposition.

And can you imagine how non-competitive GC will be on the road in their final game of the year in hostile territory.

Very true.  I'm probably trying to be a little more optimistic than I should be, but 100 point drubbings are still difficult to achieve.  I could see them getting one over GC, but I'd expect Freo to put up more of a fight.

3 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We haven't beaten a top 8 side, but geez that Adelaide win at Adelaide Oval well and truly stacks up, considering we were 20 points down in the second quarter. And then Adelaide's big win on the weekend.

Yes we have, both north and Adelaide were top 8 when we beat them earlier in the season.

We haven’t beaten a CURRENT top 8 side though.

 

 

I think we can definitely win at least 2/3 none of our opponents are without their own issues:

Sydney - in average form, not kicking many goals, Buddy or bust

West Coast - No NicNat/Gaff and Kennedy or an underdone Kennedy....we have a better midfield than them with their outs

GWS - injuries and they don't have a good record at the MCG 

 
11 minutes ago, sisso said:

I think we can definitely win at least 2/3 none of our opponents are without their own issues:

Sydney - in average form, not kicking many goals, Buddy or bust

West Coast - No NicNat/Gaff and Kennedy or an underdone Kennedy....we have a better midfield than them with their outs

GWS - injuries and they don't have a good record at the MCG 

agreed - we have to use Frost on Franklin from the get go I reckon - he can at least compete in the one on ones and is quick enough.

By the time the WCE rolls around we should really only be down Lever and Viney and to a lesser extent Smith

The current top five teams have all lost one game out of their last five. Very hot at the pointy end of the ladder.


41 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

OK i get your drift.

Yes can see North and Geelong winning all 3.

Can see Port beating WC and Ess at home.

Can see Collingwood easily winning 2.

Can see Hawthorn beating St Kilda and Sydney

Can see Sydney beating Melbourne and GWS

Under the above scenario, if we only beat GWS we play finals to knock them out provided they lose the next 2. If we beat WCE (but lose the other 2), remarkably we'd miss finals if all of the above results happened. 

It only takes 2 of those 4 "2 win" scenarios for us to miss out on 13 wins (along win North and Geelong winning all 3).  It's quite possible.

The thing for us for the remainder of the season is about W/L's, not %.  We win the same amount of games or better than the 9th placed team and our % will get us through.

Clearly the folk over at Sportsbet dont suffer MFCSS. out to $7 to miss the eight, into $2.10 for top 4, and now $8 for the flag. Time to start believing me thinks.

 

I think we need 14 wins to make the finals based on everyone’s run home. Tough conditions. Vs Syd (Win) vs WC (win) vs GWS probably a loss.

thats my hope...


9 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

Clearly the folk over at Sportsbet dont suffer MFCSS. out to $7 to miss the eight, into $2.10 for top 4, and now $8 for the flag. Time to start believing me thinks.

 

As short as $1.75 on TAB for top 4. 

28 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

It only takes 2 of those 4 "2 win" scenarios for us to miss out on 13 wins (along win North and Geelong winning all 3).  It's quite possible.

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur:

  • North wins all 3
  • Geelong wins all 3
  • Hawthorn wins 2
  • Collingwood wins 2
  • Port wins 2
  • Sydney wins 2

Because that puts them on 14 wins.

4 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur:

  • North wins all 3
  • Geelong wins all 3
  • Hawthorn wins 2
  • Collingwood wins 2
  • Port wins 2
  • Sydney wins 2

Because that puts them on 14 wins.

wow ... not improbable scenarios any of those six.

Will be very hard to win 2 of the next three based on our post bye form.

So it could be good night Irene if we lose to the Swans given the odds of winning both the remaining games is very low.

We really have stuffed up this season. ?

3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

wow ... not improbable scenarios any of those six.

Will be very hard to win 2 of the next three based on our post bye form.

So it could be good night Irene if we lose to the Swans given the odds of winning both the remaining games is very low.

We really have stuffed up this season. ?

We've won 4 out of our last 5 and lost the other by a kick after the siren to a team that almost never loses at home....form is pretty good


1 minute ago, sisso said:

We've won 4 out of our last 5 and lost the other by a kick after the siren to a team that almost never loses at home....form is pretty good

ah ... we've won one game against a contender by a couple of points ... the rest were against the also rans....nothing special about our form as has been said all year. In recent games against the contenders we in one instance could not and in the other barely defended a significant last quarter lead.

16 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

wow ... not improbable scenarios any of those six.

Will be very hard to win 2 of the next three based on our post bye form.

So it could be good night Irene if we lose to the Swans given the odds of winning both the remaining games is very low.

We really have stuffed up this season. ?

All of those sides have had stuff ups during the year, that's why we're above them on the ladder. As far as defending a lead goes you have to play pretty well to get that lead in the first place.

35 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur:

  • North wins all 3
  • Geelong wins all 3
  • Hawthorn wins 2
  • Collingwood wins 2
  • Port wins 2
  • Sydney wins 2

Because that puts them on 14 wins.

the good news is some of those teams play each other making it harder for them - like Cats Hawks and Pies Power

 
3 minutes ago, highroller said:

the good news is some of those teams play each other making it harder for them - like Cats Hawks and Pies Power

IMO if we can beat Sydney we just need one of Hawthorn d Geelong OR Adelaide d North to make it on 13

36 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

ah ... we've won one game against a contender by a couple of points ... the rest were against the also rans....nothing special about our form as has been said all year. In recent games against the contenders we in one instance could not and in the other barely defended a significant last quarter lead.

We must be the worst top 4 team with a percentage of 130 after 20 rounds in history then! 


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • NON-MFC: Round 13

    Follow all the action from every Round 13 clash excluding the Dees as the 2025 AFL Premiership Season rolls on. With Melbourne playing in the final match of the round on King's Birthday, all eyes turn to the rest of the competition. Who are you tipping to win? And more importantly, which results best serve the Demons’ finals aspirations? Join the discussion and keep track of the matches that could shape the ladder and impact our run to September.

      • Vomit
      • Like
    • 123 replies
  • PREVIEW: Collingwood

    Having convincingly defeated last year’s premier and decisively outplayed the runner-up with 8.2 in the final quarter, nothing epitomized the Melbourne Football Club’s performance more than its 1.12 final half, particularly the eight consecutive behinds in the last term, against a struggling St Kilda team in the midst of a dismal losing streak. Just when stability and consistency were anticipated within the Demon ranks, they delivered a quintessential performance marked by instability and ill-conceived decisions, with the most striking aspect being their inaccuracy in kicking for goal, which suggested a lack of preparation (instead of sleeping in their hotel in Alice, were they having a night on the turps) rather than a well-rested team. Let’s face it - this kicking disease that makes them look like raw amateurs is becoming a millstone around the team’s neck.

    • 1 reply
  • CASEY: Sydney

    The Casey Demons were always expected to emerge victorious in their matchup against the lowly-ranked Sydney Swans at picturesque Tramway Oval, situated in the shadows of the SCG in Moore Park. They dominated the proceedings in the opening two and a half quarters of the game but had little to show for it. This was primarily due to their own sloppy errors in a low-standard game that produced a number of crowded mauls reminiscent of the rugby game popular in old Sydney Town. However, when the Swans tired, as teams often do when they turn games into ugly defensive contests, Casey lifted the standard of its own play and … it was off to the races. Not to nearby Randwick but to a different race with an objective of piling on goal after goal on the way to a mammoth victory. At the 25-minute mark of the third quarter, the Demons held a slender 14-point lead over the Swans, who are ahead on the ladder of only the previous week's opposition, the ailing Bullants. Forty minutes later, they had more than fully compensated for the sloppiness of their earlier play with a decisive 94-point victory, that culminated in a rousing finish which yielded thirteen unanswered goals. Kicks hit their targets, the ball found itself going through the middle and every player made a contribution.

    • 1 reply
  • REPORT: St. Kilda

    Hands up if you thought, like me, at half-time in yesterday’s game at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs that Melbourne’s disposal around the ground and, in particular, its kicking inaccuracy in front of the goals couldn’t get any worse. Well, it did. And what’s even more damning for the Melbourne Football Club is that the game against St Kilda and its resurgence from the bottomless pit of its miserable start to the season wasn’t just lost through poor conversion for goal but rather in the 15 minutes when the entire team went into a slumber and was mugged by the out-of-form Saints. Their six goals two behinds (one goal less than the Demons managed for the whole game) weaved a path of destruction from which they were unable to recover. Ross Lyon’s astute use of pressure to contain the situation once they had asserted their grip on the game, and Melbourne’s self-destructive wastefulness, assured that outcome. The old adage about the insanity of repeatedly doing something and expecting a different result, was out there. Two years ago, the score line in Melbourne’s loss to the Giants at this same ground was 5 goals 15 behinds - a ratio of one goal per four scoring shots - was perfectly replicated with yesterday’s 7 goals 21 behinds. 
    This has been going on for a while and opens up a number of questions. I’ll put forward a few that come to mind from this performance. The obvious first question is whether the club can find a suitable coach to instruct players on proper kicking techniques or is this a skill that can no longer be developed at this stage of the development of our playing group? Another concern is the team's ability to counter an opponent's dominance during a run on as exemplified by the Saints in the first quarter. Did the Demons underestimate their opponents, considering St Kilda's goals during this period were scored by relatively unknown forwards? Furthermore, given the modest attendance of 6,721 at TIO Traeger Park and the team's poor past performances at this venue, is it prudent to prioritize financial gain over potentially sacrificing valuable premiership points by relinquishing home ground advantage, notwithstanding the cultural significance of the team's connection to the Red Centre? 

      • Haha
    • 4 replies
  • PREGAME: Collingwood

    After a disappointing loss in Alice Springs the Demons return to the MCG to take on the Magpies in the annual King's Birthday Big Freeze for MND game. Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Clap
      • Like
    • 381 replies
  • PODCAST: St. Kilda

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 2nd June @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we have a chat with former Demon ruckman Jeff White about his YouTube channel First Use where he dissects ruck setups and contests. We'll then discuss the Dees disappointing loss to the Saints in Alice Springs.
    Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
    Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

      • Sad
    • 47 replies