Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever

[Adam The God 30,259]

15 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

If we are to chase someone like Shiel, then I hope we do it as quietly as possible.  I cringe each time I see how North go about their business by basically throwing huge bucks and contracts at anyone who will listen.  It's pathetic, really.  If we are looking to chase a big fish then I hope we don't allow it to be played out in the media.

We've pursued business very quietly over the last few years. Not all of it has come off, but we're very good at keeping our heads down, but putting feelers and deals out there.

The upside to Melbourne is extraordinary and the media and the football world are starting to wake up to this. If we make the eight this year and even win a final, we'll be hot property for trade targets and Victorians looking to come home.

We're not in the North basket - a list of pretenders that never had the list to take them all the way. Reminded me of Melbourne under Daniher. 

Edited April 9, 2017 by A F

[Adam The God 30,259]

9 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

half back .. half forward .. they're all mid fielders these days

He's not a starting mid. He's nowhere near as slick in the heat of the midfield. Turns it over and panics. Has a real swagger going now in the forwardline though.

[Demon Disciple 12,127]

16 minutes ago, DominatrixTyson said:

What happened to the Steven May suggestions? 

Would he leave GC though?

At least Lever is from Victoria. May comes from the NT

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

On 07/04/2017 at 2:01 PM, Satyriconhome said:

Exactly, I was really tired after a full week at work, thought I had fallen asleep and woken up at the end of September

If the club rate Lever or think we need him Taylor, Viney and Mahoney will do the best thing by the club

If the thread/discussion re: Lever is of no interest to you, why do you feel the need to comment?

This is a [censored] supporters forum. What part of that doesn't compute for you? 

[DeeSpencer 25,712]

19 hours ago, Demon Disciple said:

Would he leave GC though?

At least Lever is from Victoria. May comes from the NT

May went to high school at Melbourne Grammar. That makes him pretty much a dees fan right?

He'd be number 1 on the list of who I'd chase but I also think he'll stay at the GC unless they have another disastrous year.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

22 hours ago, Palace Dees said:

Not being a big Oscar fan (yet) I started to get caught up in the idea of upgrading to Jake Lever.  Then I thought - well is it? Not watching other games very closely I thought I'd do a Footywire stats comparison for 2016.  Looks as though we'd be paying a lot for what we already have - at least statistically.  Is there an X factor that doesn't show up here that I'm missing, or is it just a grass is greener view that us supporters have? Jake has an even higher 'clanger' average. 

Player Statistics Comparison   Jake Lever Name Oscar McDonald Adelaide Crows Team Melbourne Demons Defender Position Defender 37 Career Games 20 Calder Cannons Origin North Ballarat Rebels March 5, 1996 Date of Birth March 18, 1996 Turned 20 in 2016 Age Turned 20 in 2016 195cm Height 196cm 93kg Weight 97kg 2014 National Draft Last Drafted In 2014 National Draft Round 1, Pick #14 Last Draft Position Round 3, Pick #53 Adelaide Crows Last Drafted By Melbourne Demons 2016 Stats for Season 2016 24 Games 15 10.3 Kicks Per Game 7.8 5.4 Handballs Per Game 8.5 15.8 Disposals Per Game 16.3 5.2 Marks Per Game 4.2 0.1 Goals Per Game 0 0.1 Behinds Per Game 0 1.0 Tackles Per Game 1.8 0 Hitouts Per Game 0 1.4 Inside 50s Per Game 1.3 0.1 Goal Assists Per Game 0.1 0.7 Frees For Per Game 0.7 1.0 Frees Against Per Game 0.6 5.6 Contested Possessions Per Game 5.7 10.1 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 10.4 12.1 Effective Disposals Per Game 12.7 76.6% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 77.9% 2.2 Clangers Per Game 1.4 0.8 Contested Marks Per Game 0.5 0.1 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 0 0.1 Clearances Per Game 0.4 2.8 Rebound 50s Per Game 2.4 5.1 One Percenters Per Game 5.7 0.2 Bounces Per Game 0 84.0 Time On Ground % Per Game 85.4 59.5 AFL Fantasy Score Per Game 59.1 70.5 Supercoach Score Per Game 68.9

 

Wow, stats really bring things into perspective!

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

  ^

For all of those who look at the above and and conclude that Oscar is at the same level as Lever as a player, do you consider the following: 

In which teams defensive 50 has the ball spent most time in over Lever and O-Mac's career? I would almost certainly say ours. Which most obviously means Oscar will see more opportunity of gaining kicks, handballs, disposals, tackles etc ect. 

I never really understand why posters provide stats like that, given they're playing in two different teams that have been at opposite ends of the ladder for the past three years. 

Anyone that has a decent eye for the game with a balanced view would agree that Lever, (after an ACL comeback pre-draft) is a significantly better and more talented player than Oscar, even if his numbers don't show it yet to the stat obsessers.

That's not even considering where they went in their drafts. Again, Lever was touted as a top 10 pick pre-injury. Oscar had no injury problems and went at 50-odd.

 

Edited April 10, 2017 by stevethemanjordan

[Palace Dees 2,330]

4 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

  ^

For all of those who look at the above and and conclude that Oscar is at the same level as Lever as a player, do you consider the following: 

In which teams defensive 50 has the ball spent most time in over Lever and O-Mac's career? I would almost certainly say ours. Which most obviously means Oscar will see more opportunity of gaining kicks, handballs, disposals, tackles etc ect. 

I never really understand why posters provide stats like that, given they're playing in two different teams that have been at opposite ends of the ladder for the past three years. 

Anyone that has a decent eye for the game with a balanced view would agree that Lever, (after an ACL comeback pre-draft) is a significantly better and more talented player than Oscar, even if his numbers don't show it yet to the stat obsessers.

That's not even considering where they went in their drafts. Again, Lever was touted as a top 10 pick pre-injury. Oscar had no injury problems and went at 50-odd.

 

The comparison was made to provide some background to the questions asked in my post, which you haven't answered.

These are guys of the same age and physical size. Oscar has really only played the one year, 2016 - hence the comparison of that year only. Adelaide was the better side no doubt in 2016 but they finished 5th and we 11th with Melbourne conceding an average of just 9 points more per match, not quite the chasm you suggested. I'm afraid to tell you but statistics do matter, check out any coaches box on game day and you will see a lap top in front of most of the coaching staff.  Check the 1/4 and 3/4 time breaks and you'll see white boards with the game numbers written all over them.

The one stat you quoted is probably the only useless one.  Being picked higher in a draft means nothing on game day as everyone on this forum can testify.  Lever has copped his share of criticism, including from his own fans.  Lever was a very promising junior (which is the likely reason he was played earlier than Oscar) but is what he has produced so far in his AFL career superior to Oscar - and is his upside greater?  I know Oscar's game warts and all and I am seeing improvement. I am not yet convinced that he is not our Zac Dawson but I'm hopeful.  What I was asking is what has Jake got, that people have seen, that think he is, or will be, a significantly better option. 

 

Edited April 10, 2017 by Palace Dees
Grammar

[Deestroy All 14,266]

24 minutes ago, Palace Dees said:

What I was asking is what has Jake got, that people have seen, that think he is, or will be, a significantly better option. 

 

I've seen pretty much every game Lever and Oscar have played. 

Lever is far more composed, reads the flight of the ball far better, takes more risks by foot (which do and don't pay off) and just looks the far more natural footballer. 

To be fair to Oscar (who I actually like as a developing player), Lever has been supported by a much more reliable group of defenders. 

Lever is just a much better footballer is the bottom line. 

I'll be happy to have both on our list please. 

[Adam The God 30,259]

43 minutes ago, Deestroy All said:

I've seen pretty much every game Lever and Oscar have played. 

Lever is far more composed, reads the flight of the ball far better, takes more risks by foot (which do and don't pay off) and just looks the far more natural footballer. 

To be fair to Oscar (who I actually like as a developing player), Lever has been supported by a much more reliable group of defenders. 

Lever is just a much better footballer is the bottom line. 

I'll be happy to have both on our list please.

Yeah, I get that, DA, but until we're right in a premiership window and FA comes into it, we have to go for needs. We might get lucky and have another Lewis fall into our laps, but most of the time we need to target biggest needs first.

For mine, we have more pressing needs than Jake Lever. 

[Skuit 10,031]

On 4/9/2017 at 6:16 AM, A F said:

This would be my biggest concern. Would Shiel be on $500k at GWS? They have a lot of talent to pay to keep them up in that hellhole. I just wonder if that would get it done. It may not. I might be dreaming, but doesn't mean I wouldn't try.

 

Yes, you are dreaming. One of those crazy fevered dreams.

[Adam The God 30,259]

14 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Yes, you are dreaming. One of those crazy fevered dreams.

I understand they have a larger salary cap than the rest of the competition, but you can only pay so many blokes $500k+.

[Adam The God 30,259]

Haha, just announced on AFL360 that Shiel has recommitted to GWS for $750k. Robbo reckons he might be on a little more than that, but interesting. I'd say he could well have been on $500k at the last contract.

[Skuit 10,031]

2 minutes ago, A F said:

I understand they have a larger salary cap than the rest of the competition, but you can only pay so many blokes $500k+.

I meant in the sense that we could get him for anywhere even near that amount.

[Adam The God 30,259]

38 minutes ago, Skuit said:

I meant in the sense that we could get him for anywhere even near that amount.

Yeah, probably dreaming.  And now he's off the market. Ah well.

[SaberFang 7,151]

How are GWS going to pay all these players with contracts ballooning to that size?

[Moonshadow 17,676]

37 minutes ago, SaberFang said:

How are GWS going to pay all these players with contracts ballooning to that size?

It's commonly known as the turned blind eye

[Axis of Bob 11,812]

A lot of talk about the quality of Oscar McDonald. I think it's important to see how the development of key defenders is generally different to most players.

Oscar gets pushed around a bit by the really powerful tall forwards (Hawkins is one) but he competes a hell of a lot better with them than almost every key defender of his age and experience. At this point in their careers (just turned 21 years old):

• Frawley was playing as a medium defender (on smaller marking players),
• Tom Mc was playing as a back up to Frawley and Dunn, 
• Harry Taylor was not yet drafted
• Brian Lake was still undrafted (and was still Brian Harris!)
• Heath Grundy had played 11 games in 3 years as a forward. His games were ... underwhelming.
• Ted Richards has played 12 games at Essendon as a forward. Very underwhelming.
• Josh Gibson had not yet debuted (and would not debut for another year too)
• Ben Stratton had not yet been drafted.
• Zac Dawson spent that season and the following season in the Hawthorn VFL team.
• Sam Fisher had not yet been drafted
• Ben Rutten had played 2 games as a struggling forward.
• Dale Morris was still a year away from being drafted in the rookie draft.
• Rance had just rejoined the team having spent the majority of the previous year in the VFL (he was being kept of the AFL side by Luke McGuane, Kelvin Moore and Will Thursfield!)
• Scott Thompson was still not yet drafted
• Sam Rowe was still 4 years away from being drafted!
• Jeremy McGovern was still a year away from being drafted

Now, far be it for me to labour a point, but it takes key defenders a lot longer than most players to develop into AFL standard (even the exceptional ones) because their job involves being able to physically compete with big, physically strong opponents. Oscar does this very well at this stage, given that he is not yet fully physically developed. He is tracking waaaaaaaaayyyyyyy ahead of where he should be at this stage. We're very lucky there.

 

[whatwhat say what 22,757]

I'm personally pretty happy with the way O Mac is developing, but I'd say T Mac was playing a key role for us as a defender at around the same age / development?

Great post Axis.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,508]

31 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

A lot of talk about the quality of Oscar McDonald. I think it's important to see how the development of key defenders is generally different to most players.

Oscar gets pushed around a bit by the really powerful tall forwards (Hawkins is one) but he competes a hell of a lot better with them than almost every key defender of his age and experience. At this point in their careers (just turned 21 years old):

• Frawley was playing as a medium defender (on smaller marking players),
• Tom Mc was playing as a back up to Frawley and Dunn, 
• Harry Taylor was not yet drafted
• Brian Lake was still undrafted (and was still Brian Harris!)
• Heath Grundy had played 11 games in 3 years as a forward. His games were ... underwhelming.
• Ted Richards has played 12 games at Essendon as a forward. Very underwhelming.
• Josh Gibson had not yet debuted (and would not debut for another year too)
• Ben Stratton had not yet been drafted.
• Zac Dawson spent that season and the following season in the Hawthorn VFL team.
• Sam Fisher had not yet been drafted
• Ben Rutten had played 2 games as a struggling forward.
• Dale Morris was still a year away from being drafted in the rookie draft.
• Rance had just rejoined the team having spent the majority of the previous year in the VFL (he was being kept of the AFL side by Luke McGuane, Kelvin Moore and Will Thursfield!)
• Scott Thompson was still not yet drafted
• Sam Rowe was still 4 years away from being drafted!
• Jeremy McGovern was still a year away from being drafted

Now, far be it for me to labour a point, but it takes key defenders a lot longer than most players to develop into AFL standard (even the exceptional ones) because their job involves being able to physically compete with big, physically strong opponents. Oscar does this very well at this stage, given that he is not yet fully physically developed. He is tracking waaaaaaaaayyyyyyy ahead of where he should be at this stage. We're very lucky there.

 

That's a fascinating list with some of the best key defenders of the last ten years!  It's interesting that not only are they developing later, they're also not being drafted til they're mature age.

 

You could add Rutten and Fisher to your list- all mature age pick-ups.

Edited April 10, 2017 by TeamPlayedFine39

[Adam The God 30,259]

58 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

A lot of talk about the quality of Oscar McDonald. I think it's important to see how the development of key defenders is generally different to most players.

Oscar gets pushed around a bit by the really powerful tall forwards (Hawkins is one) but he competes a hell of a lot better with them than almost every key defender of his age and experience. At this point in their careers (just turned 21 years old):

• Frawley was playing as a medium defender (on smaller marking players),
• Tom Mc was playing as a back up to Frawley and Dunn, 
• Harry Taylor was not yet drafted
• Brian Lake was still undrafted (and was still Brian Harris!)
• Heath Grundy had played 11 games in 3 years as a forward. His games were ... underwhelming.
• Ted Richards has played 12 games at Essendon as a forward. Very underwhelming.
• Josh Gibson had not yet debuted (and would not debut for another year too)
• Ben Stratton had not yet been drafted.
• Zac Dawson spent that season and the following season in the Hawthorn VFL team.
• Sam Fisher had not yet been drafted
• Ben Rutten had played 2 games as a struggling forward.
• Dale Morris was still a year away from being drafted in the rookie draft.
• Rance had just rejoined the team having spent the majority of the previous year in the VFL (he was being kept of the AFL side by Luke McGuane, Kelvin Moore and Will Thursfield!)
• Scott Thompson was still not yet drafted
• Sam Rowe was still 4 years away from being drafted!
• Jeremy McGovern was still a year away from being drafted

Now, far be it for me to labour a point, but it takes key defenders a lot longer than most players to develop into AFL standard (even the exceptional ones) because their job involves being able to physically compete with big, physically strong opponents. Oscar does this very well at this stage, given that he is not yet fully physically developed. He is tracking waaaaaaaaayyyyyyy ahead of where he should be at this stage. We're very lucky there.

 

Please remove Sam Rowe from that list.

Sincerely, A F.

Edited April 10, 2017 by A F

[Skuit 10,031]

48 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

A lot of talk about the quality of Oscar McDonald. I think it's important to see how the development of key defenders is generally different to most players.

Oscar gets pushed around a bit by the really powerful tall forwards (Hawkins is one) but he competes a hell of a lot better with them than almost every key defender of his age and experience. At this point in their careers (just turned 21 years old):

• Frawley was playing as a medium defender (on smaller marking players),
• Tom Mc was playing as a back up to Frawley and Dunn, 
• Harry Taylor was not yet drafted
• Brian Lake was still undrafted (and was still Brian Harris!)
• Heath Grundy had played 11 games in 3 years as a forward. His games were ... underwhelming.
• Ted Richards has played 12 games at Essendon as a forward. Very underwhelming.
• Josh Gibson had not yet debuted (and would not debut for another year too)
• Ben Stratton had not yet been drafted.
• Zac Dawson spent that season and the following season in the Hawthorn VFL team.
• Sam Fisher had not yet been drafted
• Ben Rutten had played 2 games as a struggling forward.
• Dale Morris was still a year away from being drafted in the rookie draft.
• Rance had just rejoined the team having spent the majority of the previous year in the VFL (he was being kept of the AFL side by Luke McGuane, Kelvin Moore and Will Thursfield!)
• Scott Thompson was still not yet drafted
• Sam Rowe was still 4 years away from being drafted!
• Jeremy McGovern was still a year away from being drafted

Now, far be it for me to labour a point, but it takes key defenders a lot longer than most players to develop into AFL standard (even the exceptional ones) because their job involves being able to physically compete with big, physically strong opponents. Oscar does this very well at this stage, given that he is not yet fully physically developed. He is tracking waaaaaaaaayyyyyyy ahead of where he should be at this stage. We're very lucky there.

 

And by Tmac's own appraisal, Oscar was a bit of a late bloomer at junior level as well, noted for a dramatic improvement in his final year.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

18 hours ago, Palace Dees said:

The comparison was made to provide some background to the questions asked in my post, which you haven't answered.

These are guys of the same age and physical size. Oscar has really only played the one year, 2016 - hence the comparison of that year only. Adelaide was the better side no doubt in 2016 but they finished 5th and we 11th with Melbourne conceding an average of just 9 points more per match, not quite the chasm you suggested. I'm afraid to tell you but statistics do matter, check out any coaches box on game day and you will see a lap top in front of most of the coaching staff.  Check the 1/4 and 3/4 time breaks and you'll see white boards with the game numbers written all over them.

The one stat you quoted is probably the only useless one.  Being picked higher in a draft means nothing on game day as everyone on this forum can testify.  Lever has copped his share of criticism, including from his own fans.  Lever was a very promising junior (which is the likely reason he was played earlier than Oscar) but is what he has produced so far in his AFL career superior to Oscar - and is his upside greater?  I know Oscar's game warts and all and I am seeing improvement. I am not yet convinced that he is not our Zac Dawson but I'm hopeful.  What I was asking is what has Jake got, that people have seen, that think he is, or will be, a significantly better option. 

 

 

* I want to preface this by thanking whoever the legend was that changed all demonland txt to 'bold'...  Now I can't use my signature highlighting tool.

 

A couple of points to your post. Firstly, the fact we conceded nine points more again doesn't tell the full story. What was the opposition inside 50 count average from 2014 onwards for example? That is a much better stat if you're choosing to continue to use them. It's about how much ball they were both exposed to and I don't need to tell you not every forward entry results in any score. 

There are useful stats as you've mentioned that coaches use and there are pointless stats used completely out of context by a football supporter. The numbers comparison game that posters are playing to determine 'who is the better player' being the latter. I don't buy it. It's the same as when posters were thinking we'd struck gold when Gysberts got close to the thirty possession mark in his first three games. Some supporters get way too sucked in by numbers and that's what has happened here.

And as for the draft number, the following is exactly the type of context that is relevant for the stat (that you think is useless).

- Both drafted in the 2014 draft as key position defenders.

- Lever missed the entire 2014 year due to an ACL injury but still went inside the top 15 of that year. He was an underage Vic Metro player and the captain of his  TAC cup side and had an incredibly strong 2013 year. Oscar started his 2014 year as key forward, was overlooked for the national carnival and played as a key  defender for the second half of the year to come into contention as high as the second-round but ended up going in the third round.

- Generally, a pick number will give a fairly good indication of the quality of one key defender who goes in the first-round compared to one who goes in the third-round, unless of course there has been a significant injury/special circumstance that has meant one player has had less exposure than another. Lever in this case was the one who spent his entire draft year having not played a single game. Yet he still went at pick 14. Oscar had no injury and only switched to defence in the second half of the year. This is a fairly strong indication of who the better player is. Without having played a game of league football. Single attributes alone, Lever has him covered in almost every aspect of the game and only Melbourne supporters would tell you otherwise.

 

Edited April 11, 2017 by stevethemanjordan
Someone changed the font back. Nice.

[Fat Tony 5,231]

I like Lever as a player. He could become one of the best defenders in the competition. He is tough, quick and reads the play well. Of course we should be looking to recruit him.

In saying this, I don't see us having any major holes from a list perspective in the future. If anything, I think we are most lacking a quick outside midfielder with class.

As frustrating as Oscar is at times, I think he will eventually develop into a better than average AFL player once he gets strong enough. He reads the play very well (which is why he gets so much of the ball) and is generally a good kick. The real issue with Oscar is his lack of intensity and strength in the contest, both of which will improve as he matures. I also think Frost and Smith have a lot of natural talent and can become solid defenders with the ability to counter attack at speed.

Likewise Weideman looks a good long-term prospect, which is the other position we look to be lacking in so far in 2017.

I would definitely be looking to top up our list with mature talent at the end of the year and I feel we are probably an attractive destination given our expected trajectory. Personally, I think we would be much better of if we could add a bonafide star like Martin or Fyfe, but I would still be making inquiries to Lever's management.

 

[Ruffles 356]

At that point in 2014, yes, absolutely agree. I'd suggest however that a lot has changed in 2.5 years. We know the draft is basically a lottery and that clubs often consider need not only talent. Only assumptions can be made how a draftee then approaches training, professionalism, preparation and how their body develops and how long it takes.

Looking back at drafts, once the players have finished their careers, the draft order in hindsight would be significantly different!

I'm personally very pleased with Oscars level of development for being a former pick 53 at the ages of 21 and with only 20 games to his name!