WHERE IT CAN ALL GO WRONG - THE WARTS AND ALL ANALYSIS OF EACH TEAM'S PROSPECTS [PART 1]

[Demonland 73,161]

George on the Outer has prepared a "warts and all" analysis of each opposition team's prospects for 2017 ...

WHERE IT CAN ALL GO WRONG - THE WARTS AND ALL ANALYSIS OF EACH TEAM'S PROSPECTS [PART 1]
  
With all of the summertime hype in the football  news at this time of the year, I thought it was appropriate to temper the high expectations of the fans (not that any of that would happen on Demonland) with some truly deep analysis of the opposition going into season 2017. 

What I discovered was that, as is customary, every team is “training the house down” and not a single club is dissatisfied with its trades and signings.   

So I decided to have a look at the real story of what can and should go wrong for each of the sides in 2017. The teams have been selected at random and here are the first five:-

Geelong

Dangerfield and Selwood. They alone got the pussies across the line in at least six games last year. Without that contribution they would surely have inhabited the lower reaches of the ladder.  

The Premiership years have now passed by the Cats and whilst they spent up big to lure Dangerfield back to his home territory (who wouldn’t?) the plan didn’t quite get them up last year. I can't see it sustaining them as their list goes into decline and with the likes of Lachie Henderson trying to hold the backline together, it simply isn’t the Geelong of old.  

Essendon

Despite the AFL handing out more of their largesse, in the form of access to additional players and essentially first pick in the draft to the Bombers in last year's draft, so avoiding a collapse following the suspensions for drug taking offenses, few true fans of the game will be hoping for anything good for this club.

With an ageing side with a good number of their players sidelined from the game for more than 12 months, they are coming from a long way back. A full forward who can’t find the goals, a captain who can’t find a Brownlow medal, and a club that can’t find its records, they most likely won't find a way to win too many games either. At least Worsfold had all the excuses in the world for poor performances last year but in 2017 there will be nowhere to hide and we might well discover why he was sacked by the West Coast Eagles.

West Coast

Speaking of the Eagles, I suspect that with the collapse of the WA mining boom, the same downward trend will also affect afflict West Coast.  Despite a 16-6 record and a home final in 2016, the Eagles were thrown out in week 1.  Probably the loss of Nic Natanui in Round 21 affected them the most his absence for most of season 2017 will continue to hurst.  While he is next to useless around the ground, his height and leap give his mids plenty of the ball, so without that, how will an aging Priddis and an aged new recruit Sam Mitchell fare?  With a good number of their home games against top 2016 sides, they won’t enjoy the easy ride they have had in years past.  And maybe, just maybe the competition can afford to pay for eastern state umpires to control their home games.  It will help the locals to understand the rules of the game, which is currently beyond them. 

Fremantle

Oh how the mighty have fallen!  The Dockers had been slated as probably Grand Finalists before the season began having made it to the big dance in 2015.  But they finished with only 4 wins in 2016! It all went to pieces in Round 3 with the demise of Aaron Sandilands.  Without the dominant ruckman (a beanpole of 211cm) the Dockers simply couldn’t get the ball.  And it got worse in Round 5 as Nate Fyfe broke his leg again and sat out the season.  

Mundy also was injured and saw the writing on the wall, along with Ballantyne as they offered their services to anyone who would take them during the trade period.  No takers, so they are stuck with Ross Lyon and his coaching plan of stopping the opposition at all cost, without being able to score themselves.  Shane Yarran wasn’t keen to stay around either, and dumped on the club as he exited prior to Christmas. It must be a wonderful workplace although in Yarran's case who knows whether his next workplace is going to be much better.  No Pavlich in 2017, and with an ageing/old list, there is little cause for redemption. 

Richmond

The Toiyges never fail to disappoint.  Despite making three finals series and getting bundled out without progressing any further, they still didn’t recruit the right types to help them take the next step, if there ever was one. 

Over the years they had built a list around half a dozen capable players, and then imported the likes of Houli, Grigg, Maric and Chaplin to enable them to reach finals.  But they stopped building 3 years ago, and all that has happened is every one of these players is just older and slower, or not there anymore.  They threw everything at Chris Yarran and Dion Prestia to keep the feral fans happy, but Yarran never made it to the field and Prestia is still running laps in late January.  

[To be continued ... ]

[Elwood 3184 1,338]

Fair enough but you've been very tough on Geelong. Danger actually lifted them back into the top 8 in 2016 and they were only one step away from playing off in a grannie.

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

2 hours ago, Demonland said:

A full forward who can’t find the goals, a captain who can’t find a Brownlow medal, and a club that can’t find its records,

Beautiful 

[dee-tox 4,835]

Where's the warts and all analysis?

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

This was a good read. Don't agree with the analysis re: Essendon though (despite the entertainment value). I think their list is pretty good and they blooded some good players last year who may not otherwise have got a look in. They'll be very competitive IMO.

 

[sue 9,145]

hmmm, the remark about what happened to Freo when Sandilands went down makes me nervous.

[xarronn 384]

17 hours ago, Demonland said:

George on the Outer has prepared a "warts and all" analysis of each opposition team's prospects for 2017 ...

WHERE IT CAN ALL GO WRONG - THE WARTS AND ALL ANALYSIS OF EACH TEAM'S PROSPECTS [PART 1]
 Essendon

Despite the AFL handing out more of their largesse, in the form of access to additional players and essentially first pick in the draft to the Bombers in last year's draft, so avoiding a collapse following the suspensions for drug taking offenses, few true fans of the game will be hoping for anything good for this club.

With an ageing side with a good number of their players sidelined from the game for more than 12 months, they are coming from a long way back. A full forward who can’t find the goals, a captain who can’t find a Brownlow medal, and a club that can’t find its records, they most likely won't find a way to win too many games either. At least Worsfold had all the excuses in the world for poor performances last year but in 2017 there will be nowhere to hide and we might well discover why he was sacked by the West Coast Eagles.

 

 

I'm no lover of Essendon and certainly wish them a mediocre season, but George you have been way too pessimistic about them. They won 3 games in 2016, how do you imagine they will perform as poorly, (or worse), in 2017

Only four players will start the season 30 or over, they uncovered several young players last year and of course players will return in 2017. Those players may not be at their best but at least 5 of them will make a significant improvement to the team, - Heppel, Hooker, Hurley, Colyer and Howlett.

Apart from Roosey, which coach doesn't get sacked at some stage. You're drawing a long bow in writing off Worsfold. He apparently played a big role at Adelaide in 2015, when they lost their coach and is well respected. 

 

[old55 23,705]

Tiger analysis never fails to disappoint. You could seek professional counselling

Edited January 18, 2017 by Fifty-5

[Dee-licious 1,954]

12 hours ago, xarronn said:

 

 

I'm no lover of Essendon and certainly wish them a mediocre season, but George you have been way too pessimistic about them. They won 3 games in 2016, how do you imagine they will perform as poorly, (or worse), in 2017

Only four players will start the season 30 or over, they uncovered several young players last year and of course players will return in 2017. Those players may not be at their best but at least 5 of them will make a significant improvement to the team, - Heppel, Hooker, Hurley, Colyer and Howlett.

Apart from Roosey, which coach doesn't get sacked at some stage. You're drawing a long bow in writing off Worsfold. He apparently played a big role at Adelaide in 2015, when they lost their coach and is well respected. 

 

 

I find Essendon the most interesting case of 2017. I think they will beat Hawthorn in Round 1. They will beat Carlton and Brissy in 2 and 3 and be on top of the ladder. And then I believe it will fall apart. By the time they get to Carl and Bris again it is Round 15 and 20 and the legs will be out of steam. Essendon supporters tell me that only 5-8 of the banned 12 are in their best 22. So add 5-8 in. That doesn't make you a finals side, and probably doesnt add too many extra games won. This is especially the case when you have young kids (heavily drafted last year and this year), and you have 12 players who have sat out for 12 months.

Remember, every other club who had banned players eased them into training, Essendon didn't. While I might be biased towards Melbourne, I don't think that Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs all got it wrong and the Dons got it right when to bring them back....

[beelzebub 23,383]

Delicious i think  you raise an interesting scenario. Don's desperate to come out guns blazing. Big headline stuff, appease the Windy supporters etc shake of the shackles of  controversy..

I agree that i doubt that could sustain this and injuries and breakdowns await.

 

[radar 1,865]

Interested in Robert Walls on Woosha; Doesn't reckon he can coach. 

Had best starting four ever - Cox, Judd, Kerr, Benny. 

Won one Flag by one point. 

[Ethan Tremblay 30,970]

2 hours ago, radar said:

Interested in Robert Walls on Woosha; Doesn't reckon he can coach. 

Had best starting four ever - Cox, Judd, Kerr, Benny. 

Won one Flag by one point. 

While on the gear.

[beelzebub 23,383]

Woosha's making a monty. Has all the excuses lined up like ducks lol

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

20 hours ago, radar said:

Interested in Robert Walls on Woosha; Doesn't reckon he can coach. 

Had best starting four ever - Cox, Judd, Kerr, Benny. 

Won one Flag by one point. 

I haven't read the Walls article, but if he suggested that having the best starting four ever is the key to winning, then he belongs in another era (or at Richmond). Clubs need a multitude of on-ballers and the ability to mix them up so the "starting four" might not even be the best four.

[xarronn 384]

23 hours ago, radar said:

Interested in Robert Walls on Woosha; Doesn't reckon he can coach. 

Had best starting four ever - Cox, Judd, Kerr, Benny. 

Won one Flag by one point. 

And lost another by 4 points, so could easily have had 2, (or none)!

When you factor in the drug culture at West Coast, who can really tell how well he did as a coach.

Not sure how perceptive Wallsy is, amongst other prediction failures, he was pretty hot on Melbourne's future in 2010 and 2011, (maybe because he was on the selection panel for Bails).