Long time reader, first time poster (Although I am pretty active on the Melbourne Demons News Facebook page.)
I have been having a look at the first 12 rounds up to the bye and trying to get a rough figure in my head on where we will be at going into the break.
If we are going to make a real go of knocking on the door of the finals this year, it will be conducive of our first half of the year.
Looking at the fixture I can only see 2 teams beating a full strength side playing good footy (Hawks, Swans)
Granted the Bulldogs and North Melbourne are probably the second 2 toughest teams for us to play this side of the season, we have made a habit of beating the dogs in the past few years and proved that last year against North we could match it with them...albeit for 2 and a half quarters.

Call me crazy, I have always been a bit of an optimist when it comes to our beloved Demons but I can't see why we couldn’t go into the second half of the season 7-8 wins and sitting quite happily in 7th-8th.

Anyone care to share thoughts on this?

Optimism is a beautiful thing. Welcome to the madhouse.

Welcome aboard (no pun intended Sailing Demon). 8 wins by round 12 last year would have us 4th on the ladder. Agree the second half of the year is tougher and that we'd need something like this by the bye to give us momentum and confidence towards making the finals

5 minutes ago, The Sailing Demon said:

Long time reader, first time poster (Although I am pretty active on the Melbourne Demons News Facebook page.)
I have been having a look at the first 12 rounds up to the bye and trying to get a rough figure in my head on where we will be at going into the break.
If we are going to make a real go of knocking on the door of the finals this year, it will be conducive of our first half of the year.
Looking at the fixture I can only see 2 teams beating a full strength side playing good footy (Hawks, Swans)
Granted the Bulldogs and North Melbourne are probably the second 2 toughest teams for us to play this side of the season, we have made a habit of beating the dogs in the past few years and proved that last year against North we could match it with them...albeit for 2 and a half quarters.

Call me crazy, I have always been a bit of an optimist when it comes to our beloved Demons but I can't see why we couldn’t go into the second half of the season 7-8 wins and sitting quite happily in 7th-8th.

Anyone care to share thoughts on this?

As I said elsewhere 8 or 9 wins are more than possible

at least half a dozen wins is very doable. If we gt off to a good start  belief  will build. Confidence  is the best tool in the bag often.

Im quietly thinking 7-8 actually

And then watch us become the "Cinderella" story  in the media  

Being conservative we should be 12-0.

18 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Being conservative we should be 12-0.

What would our percentage be. Conservatively?

2 minutes ago, Devil is in the Detail said:

What would our percentage be. Conservatively?

105% - Ilike close games

Ive gone back through last year. And by my calculation, we should have finished the year on 12 wins, and just made the 8.. Which is pretty darn good!

I'll redo the numbers now, but Im pretty sure I'm right.

 

 

If you forget the scars and conversely have a close look back over the past couple seasons I think we're getting close to cracking the Swans. Dour affairs where we managed to hang with them at times. Open a surprise can of Goodwin on them and with a five-goal turnaround we might be pushing for the line.

we'll start favourite or close to favourite in 4 of the 12.  i reckon we can snag a couple of extra wins against Tiges and one against Pies.

so my guess/hope is 6 wins out of 6.

win 4 in the 2nd half of the season and end on 10 wins

9 minutes ago, DubDee said:

we'll start favourite or close to favourite in 4 of the 12.  i reckon we can snag a couple of extra wins against Tiges and one against Pies.

so my guess/hope is 6 wins out of 6.

win 4 in the 2nd half of the season and end on 10 wins

Safe to pencil in at least 4 losses then.

If we beat the teams we beat last year and in the '16 NAB along with those minnows that finished below us on the ladder we go into the break 10-2. Simple. Apply the same formula to last year's top four and we head to the sheds in equal third*

*Probably not if I could be bothered properly working it out.

GWS at the G...

Ess at the G...

NM at Bellerive...

Coll at the G...

Rich at the G...

What a great opportunity to play some half-decent teams that give us the opportunity to test ourselves but also get off to a good start. We could win all of them or be 2 and 3...

Then we play two games (StK at Shittihad and the Suns away) that we should win but invariably do not - this will either drag us back down or propel us forward as...

...we play the WB, PA, Haw, Coll on QB, and Sydney (with only BL as respite) to Round 13 and the bye.

If we are to play finals we would have to at least 5 and 2 when we play WB...and beat two of the above (assuming the Lions are a win as well) and be 8 and 5.

The back 9 looks hazardous - we would need our confidence up to survive it. 

 

If we can finish those first 12 rounds 6-6 then I think we can have a real crack at sneaking into the 8 as we would have some real confidence going into the final 9 or so rounds.

But we'll need a fit list and a little luck to get that far.  This year anyway.

Being the start of the season before my negativity has set in,I'm envisioning quite a few wins during the first half of the season.That will create a snowball effect that shall carry on to the second half where we will have the momentum,belief and consistency to beat some of the top teams.

10 wins for the year. 7 in the first 12 rounds

I can see us being anything from 5-0 to 0-5 after the Richmond game.

I think 3-2 or 2-3 is more realistic, but it all starts with GWS in Round 1. 

9.