AFL National Draft 2014 Picks 2 & 3

[Dr John Dee 1,057]

Speaking to a few of the GWS assistant coaches following our loss to them in Sydney last year, they all said that the only Demons player they actually rated was James Frawley.

Personally, I would have liked to see him genuinely commit to the club and show some leadership as a club leader. I'm not convinced he did that.

If he did this, there's no way I would have preferred pick 3. That he did not, suggests to me that pick 3 is pretty bloody good compensation for a player who's not been AA for several years now.

Pick 3 generally gets an AA standard player.

And you weren't bowled over by the heady aroma of hubris?

When they've actually achieved anything beyond a few years of pillaging the draft their opinion might count for something.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

And you weren't bowled over by the heady aroma of hubris?

When they've actually achieved anything beyond a few years of pillaging the draft their opinion might count for something.

And we can discount the Howe rumours too I suppose.

[Ron Burgundy 8,588]

This notion/idea is a fairy tale.

In a trade for an established player, eg, Judd, Dangerfield etc.

I wasn't talking about what the pick gets in the national draft.

[jnrmac 20,310]

When a kid can be out all year with a knee reco and still be considered a top 3 chance I think it says everything about how woeful this draft really is.

This draft will be one of the worst in history, just our luck to have 2 high picks in such a poor draft.

its happened before, 2003!!!

[nutbean 8,838]

In a trade for an established player, eg, Judd, Dangerfield etc.

I wasn't talking about what the pick gets in the national draft.

I have no problem trading out a player for a high draft pick that we ontrade for an AFL seen talent ( DomTyson - still a risk but at least we had two years of exposed form at the highest level). I am a fan of trading a player for known talent.

This slavish devotion to untried and unknown TAC under 18's has me scratching my head.

Trading out Frawley because of his shortcomings - fine.

But anyone telling me how fabulously we have done by trading a player for whats behind curtain number one ...well.. I just think we need to see two years of whats behind curtain one.

[beelzebub 23,390]

But anyone telling me how fabulously we have done by trading a player for whats behind curtain number one ...well.. I just think we need to see two years of whats behind curtain one.

I think the essence of how fabulous it might be is its a choice at that early curtain rather than something left in a box much later.

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

This notion/idea is a fairy tale.

Let's go to actual data

Billings/Plowman/Tyson/Day/Martin/Hill/Masten/Hansen/Ellis/Griffen/Sylvia

That's 11 years of draftees at pick 3 - I know that it is too soon for the last 3 years ( although many on Demonlanders are prepared to make a set in stone career prediction on some footballers based on one season).

A total of one AA nomination for Griffen in 2013. That is out of 66 chances - meaning the strike rate over the last 11 drafts that the player will be AA standard is a whopping 1.5%.

I conservatively hope that we get a week in week out solid player - looking at the bunch above it looks like we traded in the best pick 3 in Tyson ( arguments can be mounted for an inconsistent Hill and Griffen). I dream of getting an AA standard player.

Edit - interesting I just researched pick 2 Kelly/Orourke/Coniglio/Bennell/Trengove/NicNat/Cotchin/Gumbleton/Thomas/Roughead/Walker

Lots of busts there as well - 5 all Australians out of a possible 66. One footballer who I would call an out and out champion - Roughead (Richmond would mount an argument for Cotchin).

Does this explode the myth that we are "guaranteed" of getting guns at 2 and 3 ?

Im sure many would trade Frawley for Billings, Tyson, Day, Martin, Hill and Griffen and don't forget the Plowman draft year was compromised by the mini-draft for a start which would mean the best 3 players would be O'Meara, Crouch, Whitfield without considering the expansion draft concession 17yos.

From the pick 2s - Kelly, Bennell, NicNat, Cotchin, Roughead and probly even Thomas you would happily trade Frawley for their careers/potential and 12 years of Andrew Walker Id probably cop over 4 or 5 Frawley years as well - ditto Lachie Hansen and Chris Masten

[nutbean 8,838]

I think the essence of how fabulous it might be is its a choice at that early curtain rather than something left in a box much later.

true but both options are far from certain.

I am hoping to pop champagne corks over the Frawley trade - but I need a couple of seasons to get the champers nice and chilled and ensure it is a good vintage

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

I have no problem trading out a player for a high draft pick that we ontrade for an AFL seen talent ( DomTyson - still a risk but at least we had two years of exposed form at the highest level). I am a fan of trading a player for known talent.

This slavish devotion to untried and unknown TAC under 18's has me scratching my head.

Trading out Frawley because of his shortcomings - fine.

But anyone telling me how fabulously we have done by trading a player for whats behind curtain number one ...well.. I just think we need to see two years of whats behind curtain one.

We didn't trade him out. It wasn't a decision the club made. Cannot fathom how anyone would think losing Frawley to a mechanism we have no control over and getting pick 3 for him is a bad result.

[Guest]

http://afl.com.au/news/2014-11-14/phantom-draft-form-guide-november-update

Cal Twomey's latest rankings. I've said it in the past (relentlessly, I know), but god I hope we don't reach on Lever.

[beelzebub 23,390]

true but both options are far from certain.

I am hoping to pop champagne corks over the Frawley trade - but I need a couple of seasons to get the champers nice and chilled and ensure it is a good vintage

have glass ready

[nutbean 8,838]

Im sure many would trade Frawley for Billings, Tyson, Day, Martin, Hill and Griffen and don't forget the Plowman draft year was compromised by the mini-draft for a start which would mean the best 3 players would be O'Meara, Crouch, Whitfield without considering the expansion draft concession 17yos.

From the pick 2s - Kelly, Bennell, NicNat, Cotchin, Roughead and probly even Thomas you would happily trade Frawley for their careers/potential.

How many of these are one season wonders or highly inconsistent ? Maybe some of the past few year draftees would be consistent but geez - day, Martin, Hill and Griffin are yet to prove that they can do it season after season. So swapping an average Frawley for an inconsistent Hill or Griffen - everyone is a loser.

Thomas - a couple of good seasons - probably one more than Frawley. Ask Carlton people how happy they are with Thomas. Bennell has me salivating - he needs to do it consistently ( for the record i think he will be a fabulous). Even WCE people dispair at NikNats week on 3 weeks off approach to his footy.

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

How many of these are one season wonders or highly inconsistent ? Maybe some of the past few year draftees would be consistent but geez - day, Martin, Hill and Griffin are yet to prove that they can do it season after season. So swapping an average Frawley for an inconsistent Hill or Griffen - everyone is a loser.

Thomas - a couple of good seasons - probably one more than Frawley. Ask Carlton people how happy they are with Thomas. Bennell has me salivating - he needs to do it consistently ( for the record i think he will be a fabulous). Even WCE people dispair at NikNats week on 3 weeks off approach to his footy.

Im just assessing these players careers versus Frawley and whether I'd rather have their careers versus the second half of Frawley's.

[BIG JIM 508]

Macartin pick 2 and brayshaw pick 3 lock it in guys.

[nutbean 8,838]

We didn't trade him out. It wasn't a decision the club made. Cannot fathom how anyone would think losing Frawley to a mechanism we have no control over and getting pick 3 for him is a bad result.

Because we have no idea what pick 3 will bring ?

If we had on traded the pick for a Dylan Sheil then you can pretty much make the call now that it was good thing.

I can't fathom how anyone can suggest how wonderfully we have done to have lost a footballer to a mechanism that our end result is a tattslotto ticket. Granted - we may have been given a system 15 ticket rather than a system 7 . I will hold my calling this a great result until i see what we get

To draw the best analogy - we all bemoan what transpired to land us pick 1 and 2 in the 2009 draft. Would we still be moaning if we hand picked Nat Fyfe/Jack Gunston and they produced what they have produced for their respective clubs.

[Axis of Bob 11,912]

Because we have no idea what pick 3 will bring ?

If we had on traded the pick for a Dylan Sheil then you can pretty much make the call now that it was good thing.

I can't fathom how anyone can suggest how wonderfully we have done to have lost a footballer to a mechanism that our end result is a tattslotto ticket. Granted - we may have been given a system 15 ticket rather than a system 7 . I will hold my calling this a great result until i see what we get

To draw the best analogy - we all bemoan what transpired to land us pick 1 and 2 in the 2009 draft. Would we still be moaning if we hand picked Nat Fyfe/Jack Gunston and they produced what they have produced for their respective clubs.

Would you trade Chris Dawes for pick 1?

[nutbean 8,838]

Im just assessing these players careers versus Frawley and whether I'd rather have their careers versus the second half of Frawley's.

So you are assessing their careers against half of Frawleys ? - how does that work ?

For the record Bennell has stalled sinced a great 2011, Cotchin hasnt hit the heights of his 2012 season, NikNat has gone backwards since 2011/12.

Who else a great 2010 and has gone backwards since ? Frawley. The difference being that Bennell and Cotchins team have gone forwards and so did the Eagles in 2013 but Frawley has been playing in the worst team in the AFL.

[nutbean 8,838]

Would you trade Chris Dawes for pick 1?

Yup -and after it was apparent that Frawley was going I was happy to receive pick 3 as this was the best we were going to get .

But the point I am making is that I have a strong preference for trading out pick 1 and pick 3 so we know what we are getting.

I am not going to celebrate pick 3 for Frawley until I see what we get in chooklotto.

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

So you are assessing their careers against half of Frawleys ? - how does that work ?

For the record Bennell has stalled sinced a great 2011, Cotchin hasnt hit the heights of his 2012 season, NikNat has gone backwards since 2011/12.

Who else a great 2010 and has gone backwards since ? Frawley. The difference being that Bennell and Cotchins team have gone forwards and so did the Eagles in 2013 but Frawley has been playing in the worst team in the AFL.

Frawley is going to play 5 or 6 years for Hawthorn in all likelihood which is what we are losing, the second half of his career. Pick 3 is in theory likely going to play 13 to 14 years. I would rather have 13 years of the vast majority of picks 2 or 3 than the last five or six of Frawley's. From which I deduce in terms of expected value and mathematical probability we are better off with Pick 3 than Frawley. Would you not trade Frawley for an 18yo Stephen Hill or an 18 yo Lachie Hansen, for Sam Day or for an 18yo Dustin Martin or Lachie Whifield?

[nutbean 8,838]

Frawley is going to play 5 or 6 years for Hawthorn in all likelihood which is what we are losing, the second half of his career. Pick 3 is in theory likely going to play 13 to 14 years. I would rather have 13 years of the vast majority of picks 2 or 3 than the last five or six of Frawley's. From which I deduce in terms of expected value and mathematical probability we are better off with Pick 3 than Frawley. Would you not trade Frawley for an 18yo Stephen Hill or an 18 yo Lachie Hansen, for Sam Day or for an 18yo Dustin Martin or Lachie Whifield?

Lachie Hansen - no

Sam Day - maybe - hasnt shown enough yet ( not to say he wont)

Lachie Whitfield - same as Day

Martin - torn better talent and [censored]

Would you trade Frawley for an year old Mastin Ellis or Sylvia ?

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

So you are assessing their careers against half of Frawleys ? - how does that work ?

For the record Bennell has stalled sinced a great 2011, Cotchin hasnt hit the heights of his 2012 season, NikNat has gone backwards since 2011/12.

Who else a great 2010 and has gone backwards since ? Frawley. The difference being that Bennell and Cotchins team have gone forwards and so did the Eagles in 2013 but Frawley has been playing in the worst team in the AFL.

I would also point out that in the last 20, of all the pick 3s taken, only three played or arguably project to play less games than Frawley will from this stage - they being Brendan Fewster and Lachie Plowman (from compromised drafts) and Xavier Ellis. The rest all comfortably cover Frawley's likely games output and include multiple club captains, multiple premiership winners, multiple Norm Smith medallists, all-Australians, a Brownlow medallist, a 300 gamer and a likely selection in a VFL/AFL greatest team of all time. Some of the young ones are a chance to achieve some of these feats as well.

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

Lachie Hansen - no

Sam Day - maybe - hasnt shown enough yet ( not to say he wont)

Lachie Whitfield - same as Day

Martin - torn better talent and [censored]

Would you trade Frawley for an year old Mastin Ellis or Sylvia ?

Ellis - no.

Masten - yes (close but his 200+plus games through the midfield would be handy over Frawleys 120 down back when we have T.Mac, Dunn, Garland and Frost)

Sylvia - (i would take his talent as an 18yo with Paul Roos coaching and developing) better player than Petracca at same age.

I would take Day and 13 years of Hansen over Frawley any day.

Dustin Martin is an anomaly but i would take an 18yo Dustin Martin, naeve to any personality issue, any day of the week over Frawley. If I knew he'd behave id take just his next five over Frawley only.

[nutbean 8,838]

Ellis - no.

Masten - yes (close but his 200+plus games through the midfield would be handy over Frawleys 120 down back when we have T.Mac, Dunn, Garland and Frost)

Sylvia - (i would take his talent as an 18yo with Paul Roos coaching and developing) better player than Petracca at same age.

you keep shifting the goal posts !!

Sylvia has not had one AA year or close to it. Frawley came on in leaps and bounds 2009/2010. I would take a Roos coached Frawley from an 18 year old over a Sylvia.

But it is interesting that you suggest Sylvia was a better player than Petracca at the same age ! Reminds of Dame Edna who quipped "As a little girl I looked exactly like Kylie Minogue which gives you some sort of idea of what Kylie will look like when she gets to my age".

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

you keep shifting the goal posts !!

Sylvia has not had one AA year or close to it. Frawley came on in leaps and bounds 2009/2010. I would take a Roos coached Frawley from an 18 year old over a Sylvia.

But it is interesting that you suggest Sylvia was a better player than Petracca at the same age ! Reminds of Dame Edna who quipped "As a little girl I looked exactly like Kylie Minogue which gives you some sort of idea of what Kylie will look like when she gets to my age".

Yeah but Frawley is 26 mate - Pick 3 will be an 18yo. You get 6 years of Frawley versus the entire career of Pick 3. And it's true, Colin Sylvia was a better TAC Cup player than Petracca. i would draft an 18yo Frawley at Pick 2 but St Kilda would take him first in your ill-brained scenario.

[Slartibartfast 18,054]

Frawley is going to play 5 or 6 years for Hawthorn in all likelihood which is what we are losing, the second half of his career. Pick 3 is in theory likely going to play 13 to 14 years. I would rather have 13 years of the vast majority of picks 2 or 3 than the last five or six of Frawley's. From which I deduce in terms of expected value and mathematical probability we are better off with Pick 3 than Frawley. Would you not trade Frawley for an 18yo Stephen Hill or an 18 yo Lachie Hansen, for Sam Day or for an 18yo Dustin Martin or Lachie Whifield?

Excellent discussion.

Oil just one quick point. Hawthorn didn't pay nothing for Frawley, they paid a slice of their salary cap. The management of their salary cap will determine how they go overall because the opportunity cost is another very good player.

I support the system that say we get something if a player leaves. Pick 3 is excellent compensation. In the long term we may win or we may lose but certainly in the short term we lose.

Oil you and Axis are blue sky junkies when it comes to footy. I was too for a long time. I think clubs are as well to a large extent and I believe that they rate picks much higher than they should. Roos has led the way by valuing picks correctly, firstly at Sydney where he seemed to pay overs all the time only for people to say "what a great get". He did it with Salem/Tyson last year and now it's talked about more often.

Hawthorn took Frawley because they want to perform now, they want flags. Many here are happy with pick 3 because we are building, they want to gamble on the chance of picking up a very good player.

MFC is a terrible football team at the moment. We have a bunch of young kids of varying talent running round but basically getting flogged when the good teams play well. The only way we will get better is to start having people on the park who can compete. Frawley could and had 6 or 7 years left of highly competitive AFL footy. He would help Salem, Toumpas etc etc be in a more competitive team.

We have been down the youth path in the last 7 years and failed completely. IMO it's because the balance of youth/experience was completely wrong. It led to the premature delisting of many senior players. Frawley's loss is a continuation of that. It takes 100+ games of experience and one of the AFL's best one on one backs out of our team and sticks in an 18yo of unproven blue sky.

IMO we've got enough talent on our list to develop into a good team in years to come. Frawley's loss is significant.

My initial point was people think we "killed" it with the compensation we got. We didn't. I think we lost, you think we won or at least could get out of it. What I do know is it is a significant moot point and we certainly didn't "Kill" it.