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Rating 2014 - 99% sure it wont be about the wins & losses


TGR

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For mine I don't see us making much improvement until we get some midfield run - no earth shattering news there

But from either development of our current crops or trading/drafting we need ready to go mids now and we need at minimum 10 - 12.....

I count off the top of my head (from what I've heard ppl say (watts on radio etc) and some guess work)

Ready to go rd 1 2014

Watts

Sylvia

Jones M

Jones N

Viney

Toump

McKenzie

Trengove

Grimes IMO is not an AFL mid standard at the moment, neither are

Blease

Taggart etc etc

I'm sure I've missed a couple but my point is we don't have quality depth of ready to go mids - IMO we won't get much better unless we can improve that list from development or recruiting... Roosy has a big job ahead

I agree our improvement will all come down to our midfield.

Hopefully as well as picking up two quality young mids (trade) and a quality experienced mid (Free agency) we will also have Grimes returning, a new Trengove and Sylvia and an improved Vineyand Toumpas.

I also have my doubts about Grimes but to say he is not AFL standard? He is ahead of Matt Jones in my opinion (Grimes was our 2nd best mid at the start of year - he just lacks the finesse of a good player).

As for Taggert I think he and Strauss will turn a few heads next season.

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  • 1 month later...

As Mr Stone said in his interview (twice) we want to win more games (paraphrased)...

Don't believe the spin, we've now got capable and professional men coaching the team, they will want wins.

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All depends how easy the ball leaves the midfield.

If Roos can get our players to hunt the opposition in the way Ross Lyon for Freo to do against Sydney I will be overcome with joy. It's exactly the sort of thing that has been missing from our club.

It's all about our improving the midfield, turnovers and fitness.

I don't think if everything goes to plan we would be any where near Port's improvement - towards the end of the season they were playing like a regular finals team and that die hard attitude is something that can't be taught.

To be honest I just want us to beat St. Kilda, Brisbane and Carlton...

roo's has a simple midfield plan=man up

game plan=reduce oppositions scoring chances

the less they kick=the more chance you have to run them down with fitness

both captains will enjoy a slower paced inside game

the runners we do have will enjoy an open forward line

don't let figures fool you,

ro'os expects to be in every game and a chance for the 8

no not dreaming,its been his couching mantra from day one at swans

and remember ,lions gws stk will be on our expected win list

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All depends how easy the ball leaves the midfield.

It all depends in what direction the ball leaves the midfield!

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I am sure Roos is being conservative in his public expectations. He will be thinking if Hinkley can turn things around quickly so can I. And given he has a two year tenure, he will be aiming for respectable results in that timeframe. IMO all the right moves have happened since Jackson took over and I expect us next season to fall somewhere between the efforts of the Suns and Port this season.

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Since his appointment Roos has often referred to Melbourne as a "2 win - 56 percentage team".

I think there are 4 ways we can go in 2014. Usually 5 ways, but because we were that bad, we can't get any worse.

So the 4 ways we can go will be:

- No improvement - which will be a failure. Similar wins, similar percentage, similar non-competitiveness, similar it is the 2nd quarter and the game is over.

- Major improvement ala Port Adelaide - Unlikely....as this is a once in a decade phenomenon at best. The sceptic would say "they won 5 games by single digit margins (4 by less than a goal). Their wins included GWS twice, MFC once, Gold Coast twice, The JMac drive wont be as high in 2014 either, so I expect them not to make the 8 in 2014."

Port was a "5 win - 78% team" in 2012 probably shows a better rebound position in terms of percentage, compared to Bulldogs (who had equal wins in 2012), Gold Coast (who had 2 less wins in 2012)

- Moderate improvement ala Gold Coast. Gold Coast in 2012 were a "3 win - 60 percentage team". In 2013, they became an "8 win - 90 percentage team". I think this is the best-case we can realistically hope for.

- Mild improvement ala Bulldogs. From year (2012) to year (2013), this was mild improvement. From first half of this year, to latter, it was moderate plus. They finished 15th in 2012, and 15th in 2013, but only a fool would suggest no improvement. But the percentage went from 67% in 2012, to 85% in 2013. When Neeld's Melbourne and McCartney's Bulldogs were both under the pump earlier in the year, one stat was remarkably different. Melbourne was 18th in contested possession, whereas the bulldogs were top 5. Maybe this stat is where everything starts....but percentage reflects more than we might think.

A good result will be a percentage 80-90, which will reflect much more competitiveness, less blow-outs, and being in games for longer. I think this is the key.

RRE might say 6 wins in 2014, 9 wins in 2015, 12 wins in 2016....etc.

I say 78-83% in 2014 as the starting point.

Roos will be like Ross Lyon (or vice versa). They won't be outcome driven like us supporters tend to be. The score won't matter as much as the process, the role, the internal expectations the KPPs.

Are you sure?

We did not come last in 2013.

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  • 5 months later...

"Several times during his first pre-season in charge of Melbourne, Paul Roos made a point of identifying percentage, rather than wins and losses, as a measuring stick of the Demons’ improvement in 2014.

It was a smart move, leaving scope for some positives even if Melbourne wasn’t to match the two victories it managed in 2013."



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/defensive-unit-doing-the-job-for-demons-20140505-zr514.html#ixzz30uL1SmtR

Here comes the media 8 months down the track.

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As I said in the sharemarket game, I sold PA cheap in the preseason.

"The sceptic would say "they won 5 games by single digit margins (4 by less than a goal). Their wins included GWS twice, MFC once, Gold Coast twice, The JMac drive wont be as high in 2014 either, so I expect them not to make the 8 in 2014"

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