Timing is Everything

[Weedster 174]

Crap drafting notwithstanding, it is interesting to consider the impact on the rest of the competition of the draft concessions to the expansion clubs which have virtually owned the entire first round drafts over recent years.

Consider 2010 - the final 8 were Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Freo, Hawthorn & Carlton.

Fast forward to 2013, it is entirely probable that 6 of those 8 will again be finalists (indeed most have played in every final series over that period). The Saints and the Bullies have dropped off as their lists were ageing fast back then, and join those of us in the rebuild.

Those who were building, or peaking have largely remaimed dominant in the competition while gap grows against the rest.

There is a governance issue here where the AFL is both manager of the competition and owner/funder of 2 teams( or perhaps 3 if the ongoing Sydney concessions remain ).

Frank Costa's comments are spot on - the AFL is fast creating an EPL where only a small number of clubs can realitistically have a shot at the title.

Don't hold your breath that anything will change any time soon.

[DeeSpencer 25,422]

Before expansion
Bottom team = pick 1, pick 17, pick 33 etc

Top team = pick 16, pick 32, pick 48

During expansion

Gold coast = 12 unlisted 17 year olds plus QLD zone selctions, plus picks 1,2,3,5,7,9 etc

Bottom team = pick 4 (which minus players above = real value pick 7 ish - Josh Toy, Brandon Matera, Zac Smith etc), pick 26 = pick 35, pick 44 = pick 60.

So before Gold Coast came in if you finished last you got picks 1, 17, 33

The year Gold Coast came in you got picks equal to value of 7, 35, 60. Whilst previous top teams got pick 16, 32 and 48. Ie. finishing top in 2009 got you as much reward as finishing last in 2010. It's on this basis that teams who were up the top of the ladder and had done well in the the 2007-2009 period of recruiting particularly were going to stay up the ladder.

That's the effect Gold Coast had on the draft. And it's not the top end where it hurt the most, but the bottom end. You can still find a talent with your first pick but you couldn't turn over the list quick enough.

Our 2010 draft: Cook, Howe, Davis, McDonald. Rookie: Nicholson, Evans, Lawrence, Cam Johnston, Rob Campbell, Tom McNamara

Our 2011 draft: pick 12 (Clark), Taggert, Tynan, Sellar. Rookie: Sheehan, Couch, Magner, Williams

Fair to say all we got out of these periods so far is Mitch Clark, Tom McDonald a couple of nice depth mature types in Magner and Sellar and a bit of hope in Howe, Evans and Taggert.

For a team that was still a long way off in 2010 and was half a disaster in 2011 you can say we needed more than that. It just didn't make sense for the list to be undergoing massive turnover in this period because the talent wasn't there. What point would there have been to throw out half the list if this is what we'd get put in.

Edited May 22, 2013 by the master

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Good post Master.

[rjay 24,848]

Crap drafting notwithstanding, it is interesting to consider the impact on the rest of the competition of the draft concessions to the expansion clubs which have virtually owned the entire first round drafts over recent years.

Consider 2010 - the final 8 were Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Freo, Hawthorn & Carlton.

Fast forward to 2013, it is entirely probable that 6 of those 8 will again be finalists (indeed most have played in every final series over that period). The Saints and the Bullies have dropped off as their lists were ageing fast back then, and join those of us in the rebuild.

Those who were building, or peaking have largely remaimed dominant in the competition while gap grows against the rest.

There is a governance issue here where the AFL is both manager of the competition and owner/funder of 2 teams( or perhaps 3 if the ongoing Sydney concessions remain ).

Frank Costa's comments are spot on - the AFL is fast creating an EPL where only a small number of clubs can realitistically have a shot at the title.

Don't hold your breath that anything will change any time soon.

This is a good post and it shows up what has been really worrying me about where we sit now and the failure of the last 7 years.

We should be making a run for the flag now and sitting in prime position as one of the power clubs, instead because of total incompetence we are sitting at the bottom of the heap with diminished chances of a quick turn around in fortunes.

It was vital that we got things right as the concessions going ahead for GC and GWS were always set to stifle any club who was relying on draft picks. If we look where Richmond are now, we were seen as being at least a year ahead of them. Unfortunately for them they have missed some key components that would make them a real threat, at the moment I can't see them winning a flag with this list. They have done well trying to recruit from other clubs but in the end class will win out and the 2 new clubs will jump them unless something significant happens to change things.

FA might save them as they are seen as a club on the rise, it's going to crucify us. I just feel like throwing things at the incompetents that have led us to this position.

[DeeSpencer 25,422]

The one thing I'll say to the people who were running the club is they fixed the finances and eventually caught up with footy department spending and also changed the recruiting (although that may have been a Neeld idea when he got here).

How many supporters where saying we aren't spending enough on FD when Bailey was in charge? I think we were all blissfully ignorant until things went pear shaped in 2011.

How many where saying BP was a bad recruiter when he came in under Bailey and picks Watts and co and the next couple of drafts? I know I started calling for his head before the end but that was as much because I sensed he and Neeld wouldn't get along than because I'd written him off. The thing about recruiting is the head recruiter is only as good as his networks and it seems we stuffed up by replacing Craig Cameron with BP but I don't think we changed much else. Now we've got Todd in a recruiting/developing role with Jason Taylor as our head recruiter, a new head recruiting officer in Melbourne and I think Gary Burleigh still runs the West Australia section. Plus Kelly O'Donnell in pro scouting.

Richmond where a shambles but they got their act together and made Francis Bourke their full time recruiter (who is well respected) and really beefed up the talent in their coaching and recruiting spending.

[Tony Tea 2,806]

I started fearing Melbourne would become an EPL-style feeder club when Scotty Thompson left. It is impossible to build towards a flag if, every year, you lose one of the building blocks to the power sides.

[Tony Tea 2,806]

Did the introduction of the expansion sides spook our footy department?

[Moonshadow 17,673]

I started fearing Melbourne would become an EPL-style feeder club when Scotty Thompson left. It is impossible to build towards a flag if, every year, you lose one of the building blocks to the power sides.

I remember Fitzroy losing one or more of their best players each year, usually their B&F winner. Roos, Pert, Lynch. Hard to gain traction when this happens.

[bush demon 2,034]

The meagre exception to this trend was when we lost Alves, Wells and Healey in a shortish time frame to teams at the other end of the ladder, and still bobbed up a few years later with the influx of Stretch, Earl of Spalding, Viney, Warren Dean and a few others in the mid-80's. those acquisitions gave what ron give-me-some-possessions barassi couldn't manage in the interim.

[The Chazz 4,077]

One of our main problems was that the rebuild that Bailey was required to undertake basically gave us one chance to get it right before the expansion sides raped the draft. Over the 2008 and 2009 drafts, we literally had the choice of the 3 best kids in the country (Pick 1 in 2008 and Pick 1 & 2 in 2009). One of them is not with us, one is reportedly requesting a trade at the end of the year, and one is that far out of form that I personally don't know if he will ever be able to reach the heights that his junior years promised.

Given that we manufactured our own version of a comprimised draft throughout 2008 & 2009, we have clearly failed (I know I'm not breaking any news here!). When you consider we had 3 picks in the top 20 in 2008 (Watts, Blease & Strauss), and 4 in the top 20 in 2009 ($cully, Trengove, Gysberts and Tapscott), those 7 players should be pushing that 50-70 game stage. They should be cemented in out best 18. Fact is, we lost 1 because he was a greedy chap (there is a different 4 letter work beginning with "c" that I was going to use), 1 because he was NFG, 2 have had freak injuries that hindered their development for at least 12 months (and it could be argued that they lost "it" when that happened), and the other 3 have generally never completed a full preseason.

Where our comprimised draft hurt us the most was that we had to have everything go right for at least 5 of those 7 draftees - history (and the present) will show that it has not happened, and as a result, we've needed spec picks (30+) to step up and develop in to something that few have done before them in recent years (even at other teams).

[Dr. Gonzo 24,129]

We had top picks in 2003, 2007, 2008 & 2009 before the expansion clubs came along and had more top picks in 2012. We should have set ourselves up with those drafts without having to worry about picks in 2010 & 2011.

[Weedster 174]

We had top picks in 2003, 2007, 2008 & 2009 before the expansion clubs came along and had more top picks in 2012. We should have set ourselves up with those drafts without having to worry about picks in 2010 & 2011.

I don't disagree, however the point is we didn't set ourselves up, and have not able to rectify these mistakes in subsequent drafts, pushing us further behind.

Free agency offers nothing to clubs in rebuild. Rather it allows top clubs to fill gaps & remain strong, at no cost to them whatsover in terms of compensation - Goddard, Rivers, Lynch, Lake - let's hope we are not adding Sylvia to that list.