NAB CHALLENGE: GOLD COAST SUNS v MELBOURNE

[stuie 7,374]

The game against port a few weeks ago most of the experts seemed to think Port would win due to their superior list depth. They were genuinely surprised that our young fringe players were able to beat theirs. I would suggest that this means that most of the experts have their list ahead of ours.

Personally, I think that they have a far better midfield, a similar forward line and probably a worse backline although a lot of people really rate Carlisle. Remember that while we think we may have solved the scoring problems it is an entirely unproven forward unit we are relying on this year. It could flop as easily as fire.

Champion Data rated the lists for 2013 such:

MELBOURNE

Defenders 12th

Midfield/Rucks 16th

Forwards 8th

LIST QUALITY 13th

PORT ADELAIDE

Defenders 18th

Midfield/Rucks 12th

Forwards 17th

LIST QUALITY 17th

[RalphiusMaximus 5,993]

Champion Data rated the lists for 2013 such:

MELBOURNE

Defenders 12th

Midfield/Rucks 16th

Forwards 8th

LIST QUALITY 13th

PORT ADELAIDE

Defenders 18th

Midfield/Rucks 12th

Forwards 17th

LIST QUALITY 17th

How odd. I find that really interesting and now I'm going to have to hunt up their criteria and find out why. I wouldn't rate us that highly.

Edit:

I see now. They rate our forwards pretty highly. I think that is a stretch given that it is a group that has basically never played together and also that there are so many question marks over them. II guess it's the difference between "on paper" and reality. It would be pretty great it they did perform that well.

Edited March 17, 2013 by RalphiusMaximus

[stuie 7,374]

How odd. I find that really interesting and now I'm going to have to hunt up their criteria and find out why. I wouldn't rate us that highly.

The original article is here Ralph: http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/champion-data-rankings-suggest-2013-afl-premiership-is-hawthorns-to-lose-west-coast-set-to-soar/story-e6frf3e3-1226536563832#.UUW3OhnbwSV

[stuie 7,374]

How odd. I find that really interesting and now I'm going to have to hunt up their criteria and find out why. I wouldn't rate us that highly.

It is of course "on paper", but that's the criteria I was talking about. Champion Data wouldn't take into account a forward line needing to gel etc.

[Muvver Jones 64]

The game against port a few weeks ago most of the experts seemed to think Port would win due to their superior list depth. They were genuinely surprised that our young fringe players were able to beat theirs. I would suggest that this means that most of the experts have their list ahead of ours.

Personally, I think that they have a far better midfield, a similar forward line and probably a worse backline although a lot of people really rate Carlisle. Remember that while we think we may have solved the scoring problems it is an entirely unproven forward unit we are relying on this year. It could flop as easily as fire.

Since they knew they had to meet us again in round one they could have easily been foxing or dare I say tanking. Don't want to show your first serious opposition your goods prematurely.

[The Chazz 4,077]

I was at the game, but had absolutely no chance to keep everyone updated sorry. Also not sure what has been written in this thread already - had a quick browse but skipped a few pages.

FWIW, my observations are/were;

* I can't believe we were late, which pushed back the start of the match by 20 mins. In hindsight, it was obvious our bus driver had the same drive as our players seemed to.

* Matt Jones is a lock for Round 1. Thought he played really well for a first year player.

* First time I've seen Jesse Hogan in person - now I can understand the hype. He's huge, and absolutely owned Warnock (I appreciate that's not something to hang your hat on, even for an 18 year old who can't play this year). Many times he did everything right in a marking contest, except hold the bloody thing! He will be very good.

* It was good to watch Watts the man, not Watts the boy. He was a standout in a very understrengthed and undersized backline.

* I watched Sylvia fairly closely, but it seemed to be the only time he got going was in the last quarter. I read an earlier post from Bailin Out (I think) that siad Sylvia was hungry, I only saw that for the last 25 minutes of the game (when the result was known).

* Jack Grimes, FMD, I'm just not sure if his skills will allow him to become that A-grader that he should be.

* Jordie Mckenzie's biggest problem is that he stands flat-footed too much. When he gets a handball, he is stationary, and needs to rely on a burst of speed to get in the clear. Unfortunately, he doesn't have that burst, and is often caught, hence his disposal is iffy.

* I can't for the life of me work out why Toumpas wasn't in our best. He ran and ran and ran, it felt like he was everywhere. At one stage he ran with Ablett, and will now have more of an insight on how wide that gap is between playing seniors and being a star.

* Ablett is a freak (sorry for not offering anything new there).

* Strauss is a concern, I personally don't think he is AFL standard at this stage. I don't want to hear the "coming back from injury" or "it was only a practice match", I was there, I watched him, and I just don't know if he has got what it takes to be in our senior team. Put it this way, if there was 1 spot left and it was between M Jones and Strauss, I'd be picking Jones.

* At some stage, I'm sure Sellar and Pedo will be fighting for the same spot. Based on Saturday, Sellar is a given. He presented up forward, he ran hard, he created contests, and was more than competitive in the ruck, even against Zac Smith. I felt that when Sellar rucked, he offered more than just a contest. Which leads me to...

* Mark Jamar. Tried hard all day, I noticed he was in the best (wouldn't have been difficult), but where Russian is let down is in his tap work. He is sufficient around the ground, not ideal, but will do, but it's his tap work that probably costs us the most. He generally wins more contests than he loses, but he taps it to no-one. The chemistry between he and our other mids is non-existant. weither they (the mids) need to change their set up, or Jamar needs to change the areas he taps to. I think it has to be the former, but at this stage I think they are so focused on defending the bloke they are on, rather than being creative and playing off their man.

All in all, it was a very boring game of footy. Conditions were hot, but were close to perfect. To see 20 goals kicked for the game was poor for both teams. Our forward line and backline were far from what I hope to see in Round 1, which probably means that the Suns should've beaten us by more, given they were closer to full strength than we were. I have no doubt we went in to the game with a practice match mentality (like our bus driver), and I can't say I blame them. Our next game is in just under 2 weeks, and I've got no doubt that it's the game we have been set for, not some "nothing" game on a warm Saturday morning/afternoon.

[drdrake 3,035]

Thanks to all those who have submitted reports. I'm interested to read about Strauss and Dan Nicholson, to me Nev Jetta's pre-season form is better than those two and I found it strange he was playing for Casey and from all accounts BOG, whilst these two were in the Gold Coast.

[1964nowMORE 439]

ON form it sounds like Terlich and M Jones are looking good for Rd1. I'm guessing one of Viney or Toumpas will get a gig also - plus Dawes, Byrnes and Road. Six/Seven newbies including 3 on debut is a lot - having read somewhere Neeld didn't want too many on debut vs Power.

I know Pederson was told he had a clear role - and the coaches believed it (so did most of us) when we traded for him. What's happened since is he has shown poor-ish form overall and Sellar has somewhat "comes of age" as a forward/ruck - perhaps by mistake having been played there vs power in Renmark as there simply was no one else. Goes to show that practice games can be important it generating self belief - which I suspect Sellar and Watts now have more of.....when we really needed 15-20 players "walking a little taller".

Will be very interesting at selection.

[H_T 2,941]

Since they knew they had to meet us again in round one they could have easily been foxing or dare I say tanking. Don't want to show your first serious opposition your goods prematurely.

Not sure if you're talking about the Demons or the Power here.

Could make a good case for both. Boom.

[CBDees 3,162]

The original article is here Ralph: http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/champion-data-rankings-suggest-2013-afl-premiership-is-hawthorns-to-lose-west-coast-set-to-soar/story-e6frf3e3-1226536563832#.UUW3OhnbwSV

Interesting that this AFL Championship rating puts us 8th in forwards and GWS 18th, particularly when our best have never played together (and are all re-cycled) and they have some of the hottest young guns in the business (courtesy of draft concessions)

[Muvver Jones 64]

Not sure if you're talking about the Demons or the Power here.

Could make a good case for both. Boom.

I don't think our tactical nous is highly developed enough to condiser that.

[The Chazz 4,077]

ON form it sounds like Terlich and M Jones are looking good for Rd1. I'm guessing one of Viney or Toumpas will get a gig also - plus Dawes, Byrnes and Road. Six/Seven newbies including 3 on debut is a lot - having read somewhere Neeld didn't want too many on debut vs Power.

I know Pederson was told he had a clear role - and the coaches believed it (so did most of us) when we traded for him. What's happened since is he has shown poor-ish form overall and Sellar has somewhat "comes of age" as a forward/ruck - perhaps by mistake having been played there vs power in Renmark as there simply was no one else. Goes to show that practice games can be important it generating self belief - which I suspect Sellar and Watts now have more of.....when we really needed 15-20 players "walking a little taller".

Will be very interesting at selection.

I would be disappointed if Toumpas doesn't get a run in Round 1, given his preseason form, in particular how he played Saturday.

It's so hard to be concerned over a practice match. I probably expected Sylvia, Rodan and Byrnes to play well, but felt that they were just using the run to get match fitness more than anything. You would like to think that those 3 especially would have a different impact in the official season.

[H_T 2,941]

I don't think our tactical nous is highly developed enough to condiser that.

Well given our current 17th Champion data ranked inexperienced midfield, (I could make a case for 18th) - which we ALL already knew, and our inability to get key players (see Clark, Trengove, Blease, Dawes) on the park together in the NAB. You most likely have a point here.

But we don't like excuses, do we?

[old dee 22,814]

Well given our current 17th Champion data ranked inexperienced midfield, (I could make a case for 18th) - which we ALL already knew, and our inability to get key players (see Clark, Trengove, Blease, Dawes) on the park together in the NAB. You most likely have a point here.

But we don't like excuses, do we?

That seems to be all we have nowadays H_T

[Dockett 32 1,213]

Interesting that this AFL Championship rating puts us 8th in forwards and GWS 18th, particularly when our best have never played together (and are all re-cycled) and they have some of the hottest young guns in the business (courtesy of draft concessions)

Its our rucks and midfield that totally condemn us and while I'm on a roll, it seems Davis didn't disgrace himself at Casey. I unashamedly feel he has potential. He is a big boy with speed, grunt and doesn't take a backward step. Kicking a bit iffy, but more upside than Joel Mc or Strauss IMO.

[stuie 7,374]

Interesting that this AFL Championship rating puts us 8th in forwards and GWS 18th, particularly when our best have never played together (and are all re-cycled) and they have some of the hottest young guns in the business (courtesy of draft concessions)

It's Champion Data, so you'd assume it's based on collective stats rather than things like players needing time to adjust to each other and gel.

[Longsufferingnomore 1,459]

Its our rucks and midfield that totally condemn us and while I'm on a roll, it seems Davis didn't disgrace himself at Casey. I unashamedly feel he has potential. He is a big boy with speed, grunt and doesn't take a backward step. Kicking a bit iffy, but more upside than Joel Mc or Strauss IMO.

Agree from what I saw at the rear end of Casey year he really started to show potential.

[Ouch! 2,034]

Apologies if anyone else has mentioned this, but after listening to Neeld after the game (vid went up on the MFC site this morning) it is telling that the club went into the game with the normal rotation planned for the AFL season and the GC used their full compliment. So being 2 rotations down and losing Garland as well. It is understandable for the team to be run over a bit in the second half in 30 degree heat.

I'm not into making excuses, and it sounds like we didn't capitalise as much as we could have in the 1st quarter, and let them back in a bit too easily in the 2nd, but form in practice matches should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, I would have thought that teaching our players how to win needs to start as well...

[Bossdog 2,002]

I belive they beat us last year as well......We beat C'wood last year as well.....Means absolutley nothing in the scheme of things....

Does anyone know how Geelong ,Hawthorn,any of the top teams went in the NAB cup last year.......I could look it up but it means nothing once the season starts.......

[The Chazz 4,077]

I belive they beat us last year as well......We beat C'wood last year as well.....Means absolutley nothing in the scheme of things....

Does anyone know how Geelong ,Hawthorn,any of the top teams went in the NAB cup last year.......I could look it up but it means nothing once the season starts.......

The only stat I know off the top of my head is that the last 5 NAB Cup winners all made the Top 4 of the regular season. You would expect this year's winner would buck that trend, but we won't know that for another 26 weeks or so.

[P-man 13,154]

That said, I would have thought that teaching our players how to win needs to start as well...

This thought keeps popping into my head also. With regard to the Lions pre-season, players and coaches kept talking about "winning form is good form". You could argue that case even more strongly for us. It's all very well to just cast it off as a practice match, but surely given the state that the club and its players are in, a couple of wins would have been not just nice to haves, but a genuine aim.

I'm glad the real stuff can start. The pre-season has very much had a "more of the same" feel to it.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

I belive they beat us last year as well......We beat C'wood last year as well.....Means absolutley nothing in the scheme of things....

Does anyone know how Geelong ,Hawthorn,any of the top teams went in the NAB cup last year.......I could look it up but it means nothing once the season starts.......

Judging Nab cup form is tough but a lot seem to think it means absolutely zilch. I believe it can have a hugely positive effect on a cub. Especially cellar dwellers who have been starved of success for so long.

Yes there are games in which sides will play a more inexperienced side or be down on rotations or they'll be pipped in a close one. But competitiveness, a show of improvement in implementing game plan, the proof of development in younger players. These things are a must.

For the MFC, a club who have craved success for so long, it would do absolute wonders for us if we were to one day win the Nab cup GF or at least play off in it. The positivity, morale, membership drive, sense of arrival etc etc. It would do more than many think. I am sure.

So please, for all those saying it means nothing, please stop. For the MFC it would mean a lot.. We need that feeling back. We need that winning culture.

We must win round 1, and not by a couple of goals. We need a serious injection of life. Go dees.

Edited March 19, 2013 by stevethemanjordan

[H_T 2,941]

Judging Nab cup form is tough but a lot seem to think man cup form means absolutely zilch when in fact I maintain that for the most part, it means a lot. Especially the old format.

Yes there are games in which sides will play a more inexperienced side or be down on rotations or they'll be pipped in a close one. But competitiveness, a show of improvement in implementing game plan, the proof of development in younger players. These things are a must.

For the MFC, a club who have craved success for so long, it would do absolutely wonders for us if we were to one day win the Nab cup GF or at least play off in it. The positivity, morale, membership drive, sense of arrival etc etc. It would do more than many think. I am sure.

Agree, look at Geelong this year. I stuck by them last year as a few here began to write them off. They've gradually injected youth the last two years and managed it well. They have been quite good this NAB Cup and unlucky to miss the final; they've treated it really seriously in preparation for the game against the Hawks first up; that's their professionalism and culture they set in terms of their standard.

They've topped up with Caddy, Rivers and McIntosh who should all fill holes for them. Meanwhile the likes of Duncan, Horlin-Smith, Motlop, Smedts, Varcoe, Christensen look ready to support their existing senior quality players, consistently.

I think they're still in contention again. And they're defying a lot of people's beliefs to date.