That's right but how often does a player have a great first year and struggle to back it up after opposition coaches give more time and focus on stopping them having an influence. Also coaches have more intel about strengths and weaknesses.

I think Cameron will benefit from having Patton in the lineup for most of the year; his 2nd year will be better than his first, I think.

I tend to hold onto things once I've decided but I think Watts will be a very good player for us in the future.

I suppose I should be thankful for small mercies ? You know, the fact that a former pick 1 will turn out to be a "very good player" ?

This club has been crying out for some superstars of the game for nearly 30 years, so forgive me for being a tad underwhelmed when players picked at one turn out to be decent.

This club is desperate for a superstar, or two, and unfortunately, despite superstar draft picks, they continue to elude us.* Stars give you a chance at a flag, which hopefully, some supporters still have an interest in.

*waits for posters to bring up Viney, Toumpas, Hogan or Barry.

I suppose I should be thankful for small mercies ? You know, the fact that a former pick 1 will turn out to be a "very good player" ?

This club has been crying out for some superstars of the game for nearly 30 years, so forgive me for being a tad underwhelmed when players picked at one turn out to be decent.

This club is desperate for a superstar, or two, and unfortunately, despite superstar draft picks, they continue to elude us.* Stars give you a chance at a flag, which hopefully, some supporters still have an interest in.

*waits for posters to bring up Viney, Toumpas, Hogan or Barry.

Yet to prove themselves BH

Who knows what the future holds but right now they are first year recruits who have not played one game of AFL football.

I will hold on for a while yet and see what develops

*waits for posters to bring up Viney, Toumpas, Hogan or Barry.

Well I know you think Hogan and Barry will be and I think Viney and Toumpas will so we have nothing to worry about.

...but I get the point, we haven't had one since Flower and that's a long time ago now. We can't take the big step unless a few of these guys come up to the mark.

*now wait for the posters on our last one....

I like you, BH, and I gather you're a much more rational thinker than the average footy fan, and that's good.

However, history would show that the odds of drafting a true superstar with pick one are not that flash. Really, Reiwoldt/Hodge/Goddard (00/01/02) are the only three superstars taken at pick one since the inception of the draft. It's a hit ratio a touch above 11% (even discounting the last few years where they haven't had time to develop yet, you're still only looking at 20%).

I think punters continue to overrate the value of the draft, both in terms of the value of an existing player a particular pick is worth at trade time, and also in their expectation of the performance of a player taken with a particular pick.

Personally, I think trading pick 20 for Chris Dawes is a sensible move, and that "a very good player" is exactly what you should be hoping for with pick one.

There's probably been just as many superstars taken at pick 30 or below (or the PSD / Rookie drafts) as there have been from the top ten picks. It's obviously very difficult to know, as a recruiter, what to look for exactly when attempting to pick an AFL footballer out of a field of talented kids. Clearly too, some recruiters are better than others and, on the evidence we've seen over the last five years, ours were shithouse, but i still think you have to accept that "a very good player" is a decent return from pick one.

Thus far, I don't rate Watts a very good player. He's too soft, and my fear is he always will be.

This club has been crying out for some superstars of the game for nearly 30 years, so forgive me for being a tad underwhelmed when players picked at one turn out to be decent.

I suppose I should be thankful for small mercies ? You know, the fact that a former pick 1 will turn out to be a "very good player" ?

This club has been crying out for some superstars of the game for nearly 30 years, so forgive me for being a tad underwhelmed when players picked at one turn out to be decent.

This club is desperate for a superstar, or two, and unfortunately, despite superstar draft picks, they continue to elude us.* Stars give you a chance at a flag, which hopefully, some supporters still have an interest in.

*waits for posters to bring up Viney, Toumpas, Hogan or Barry.

You know, I used to be of the opinion that a number 1 pick should get you a star.

But if you look back through history, with guys like Watts, Scully, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Fraser, all it does is give you the best chance possible of getting a player that is at least "good".

And every team needs good players.

But very few players are out and out stars from the very beginning, obvious for all to see pre-draft.

I don't rate Deledio a star, and I think Goddard has only had 1 year at that level.

*waits for posters to bring up Viney, Toumpas, Hogan or Barry.

I hereby decree that the word "star" can only be used in the past or present tense - DEFINITELY not in the future tense ( I have been burned one too many times)

Yet to prove themselves BH

Who knows what the future holds but right now they are first year recruits who have not played one game of AFL football.

I will hold on for a while yet and see what develops

Oh dear.

Yes, I'm aware that generally the number one picks are very rarely the best player from a draft, with Nick Riewoldt probably the exception. But PLENTY of superstars go in the top 5. So my point remains. Not to mention that Watts is a hack for a pick one (no ticker).

Get your picks right and hope like hell it's not a dud draft.

You know, I used to be of the opinion that a number 1 pick should get you a star.

But if you look back through history, with guys like Watts, Scully, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Fraser, all it does is give you the best chance possible of getting a player that is at least "good".

And every team needs good players.

But very few players are out and out stars from the very beginning, obvious for all to see pre-draft.

I don't rate Deledio a star, and I think Goddard has only had 1 year at that level.

Deledio has won 3 BF, and if you think Goddard has had only 1 year at that level you need to watch more footy.

Picks, schmicks...soft as...hates to compete...will go back to basketball.

Deledio has won 3 BF, and if you think Goddard has had only 1 year at that level you need to watch more footy.

Nope, I'm pretty content that my point of view is different to yours.

Oh dear.

You, of all people should know BH. You have to spell it out.

i don't know that we'd be having this discussion if our Jack hadn't hurt his ankle and basically missed half a season, just when he was finding his feet. There were some more than respectable performances there. (e.g. 34 disposals and 11 marks against Sydney)

With a more clearly-defined role, a full pre-season, improved fitness, a bit more experience around the club to lead the way, and some real competition for places, Jack should be due for another step up. And let's not forget, he's still only 21.

i don't know that we'd be having this discussion if our Jack hadn't hurt his ankle and basically missed half a season, just when he was finding his feet. There were some more than respectable performances there. (e.g. 34 disposals and 11 marks against Sydney)

With a more clearly-defined role, a full pre-season, improved fitness, a bit more experience around the club to lead the way, r for him and some real competition for places, Jack should be due for another step up. And let's not forget, he's still only 21.

Good one Bing.....i think he is developing nicely too,thought he had a good year last year , and was getting really consistent before he got injured. Big year for him ths year though,i have faith in the lad,and believe he will further improve, and yes develop a bit more agression, with more confidence and body size.

Even when Watts is playing his best football he is still soft. That is what is holding him back from ever becoming a star.

Why would anyone believe anything Greg Denham says about the Dees?

Watts has elite speed and endurance, a good footy brain, soft hands, elite disposal, can win his own ball and can take a contested mark. Has he realised his potential yet? No.

Yep he did not comprehend the professionalism required to realise his potential until the arrival of Neeld, Craig, Misson and Co. He has now had 2 pre seasons and 1 season under their tutelage and is fitter and stronger as a result. I am pretty excited about what season 2013 holds. Adam Goodes is a fine example of a young player seen as soft who turned that perception around and so is our very own Brad Green.

Trade him to Norf for a second round pick? Shurely we'd have to throw in Mitch Clark as a sweetener!

Talking to a Collingwood supporter today who watched a bit of Melbourne training on his way to the tennis last week and said he didn't realise how big Watts was and said he was really impressed with a mark he took running flat out with the flight of the ball into a pack of players coming the other way.

I hope this is a sign of the season to come.

Talking to a Collingwood supporter today who watched a bit of Melbourne training on his way to the tennis last week and said he didn't realise how big Watts was and said he was really impressed with a mark he took running flat out with the flight of the ball into a pack of players coming the other way.

I hope this is a sign of the season to come.

As Jack gets older he'll hopefully develop more and more 'go' . It should come with maturity and a more seasoned and hardened body. Some blokes are just born with that manic courage whilst some others take a fair bit of time. Deledio and Goddard play a similar role down back and neither of those 2 are super courageous. Ask any Tiger or Saint fan. But both are really valuable.

Running around in the backline Watts can play from behind a fair bit but he should learn some good accountability skills and develop a decent defensive side to his game. There will be times when he will need to take the front position in defence and if he does so it will aid in his development. He's got the skills set - it's the other stuff that needs to come out.

It may be another couple of years before he hits his straps . He's still only 21 years old. At 23 we should be able to fully judge him. He showed some glimpses last year. He needs to put on some real muscle.

I'd like to see him use his pace out of the backline, break the lines and deliver deep into the forward line. He is such a good kick. Like many/most of our players last season, his confidence was not showing.

Still believe he could eventually play forward. He may have to pinch hit there this season or even be given some extended time in the forward line.

From rnds 8-15 last year he was the #1 player in the AFL for intercept marks, intercept possessions and yardage gained. Then he got injured. A season like those 8 rounds will be pretty good.

When you think about it, with the exception of a couple of recent older recruits (ie, Byrnes and Rodan), and the likes of Davey and, possibly, Jamar - virtually every other player on the list has not yet reached their potential.

Watts firmly fits into this category IMO. In fact, I reckon he'll make it.

And this might be harsh on Davey, given that he seems to have finally found a new lease of life, and Jamar, who's still our number one ruck and who's contracted until 2015.

From rnds 8-15 last year he was the #1 player in the AFL for intercept marks, intercept possessions and yardage gained. Then he got injured. A season like those 8 rounds will be pretty good.

I wonder if this has something to do with his basketball background. I expect he finds it far easier to read the game down back for this very reason.

Given that he's quick, has very good hands, is still a bit shy when it comes to body contact, and, as I understand it, has much more of a basketball background than an Aussie Rules background, it seems to me that floating in defence and intercepting opposition forward entries is something he seems perfectly suited to at this point in his AFL development. Despite his obvious skills, he looks uncomfortable as a tall marking forward - whereas, down back, he looks natural.

As he gets more confident, perhaps his role will evolve - but, right now, this is where I see Watts having the biggest impact.

Which commentator was it that was screaming for him to be played down back a few years ago?

I know Malthouse said it in 2012 but I seem to recall someone saying it back in 2010 or so.

Some might not like this comparison.. But I was always a Tom Hawkins fan..And I know alot of others were off him, even most of my Geelong mates..

He didn't start having a big impact on games until the 2011 final series.. When he was a 23 years old.. Then in 2012 (turning 24) I believe he was one of the better forwards in the game..

This was reflected by him winning the Geelong B&F..

Needless to say, some players need time.. And then they click..

I hope Watts finds that switch one day.. I know I'm willing to wait..

Some might not like this comparison.. But I was always a Tom Hawkins fan..And I know alot of others were off him, even most of my Geelong mates..

He didn't start having a big impact on games until the 2011 final series.. When he was a 23 years old.. Then in 2012 (turning 24) I believe he was one of the better forwards in the game..

This was reflected by him winning the Geelong B&F..

Needless to say, some players need time.. And then they click..

I hope Watts finds that switch one day.. I know I'm willing to wait..

How long? How many contracts? Will JW continue to tease a la Col Sylvia? Newton? Martin? Miller?