The First Half Draw

[Sir Why You Little 36,993]

far be it for me to speak for wyl

However I took it as meaning 7 teams outside of the top 8 from last year.

Thanks OD.

From positions 7-13 give or take the teams will all be pushing for the same spots. Most will miss out.

A good start to the season is paramount.

Those predicting a late surge are not taking into account that we now have 18 sides which means the "middle class" has expanded.

[rpfc 28,280]

far be it for me to speak for wyl

However I took it as meaning 7 teams outside of the top 8 from last year.

Ok, then he is exactly right.

Carry on.

[Trisul 664]

The doggies may be on the slide as many say however they did pummel us, at that horrid concrete locality, thusly;

2.4, 4.9, 7.13, 8.15 63 .. 4.5, 8.9, 13.10, 19.13 127

[old55 23,462]

I reckon we're guaranteed to be better than GWS, Port and Gold Coast and guaranteed to be worse than Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Carlton and West Coast

That leaves 10 teams in the middle - we could finish anywhere in that bunch from 6th to 15th.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

for the statistically minded, I am always amazed at how often polls like this form a perfect bell curve. Beautiful.

5 wins the expectation. When is the 2nd half poll going up? It is a lot rosier, I am going with 8 for that half, totalling 13.. what is a finals par score this year?

great work BTW to the threadmaker

[Harrisonrules 273]

Every game is winnable

That doesn't mean we will be 11 zipp. But the only team I know that it will be very hard to beat is Geelong but a 15% chance is a chance. We have a 40% chance of beating WC, 45% Hawthorn and Collingwood 50% Carl ( We have a good history against Blues at G even in bad years) 55% Syd Saints Bombers 60% Dogs and Tigers. 75 Lions

Edited February 29, 2012 by Harrisonrules

[jayceebee31 759]

One week at a time thankyou!!

Yes- we will win that one.

[biggestred 5,031]

Just had a look at 2ndnhalf of the draw. We really could, realistically, win 10 games. We won't, but if we play well we could.

Gws win

Bris away 50/50

Rich 50/50

Freo etihad 50/50

Port Darwin 80/20

North etihad 50/50

Gold coast win

Saints g 50/50

Gws in Canberra win

Adelaide g 50/50

Freo away lose

So if we hav 4 wins at round 11 the media will be going nuts about how crap we are.... But damn that's a good run home. 11-12 wins for year is poss with 4 from first 11....

[biggestred 5,031]

Having said that, we are a monty to lose to them all and finish last

[Trisul 664]

Every game is winnable

That doesn't mean we will be 11 zipp. But the only team I know that it will be very hard to beat is Geelong but a 15% chance is a chance. We have a 40% chance of beating WC, 45% Hawthorn and Collingwood 50% Carl ( We have a good history against Blues at G even in bad years) 55% Syd Saints Bombers 60% Dogs and Tigers. 75 Lions

Those four teams beat us seven times in 2011 by a total of 412 points @ 58 points average margin. Our average score in those games was 59.

[Striker475 696]

Having said that, we are a monty to lose to them all and finish last

truer words I rarely see on DL

[old dee 23,782]

Having said that, we are a monty to lose to them all and finish last

And no extra pick this year for the result!

[old55 23,462]

Every game is winnable

That doesn't mean we will be 11 zipp. But the only team I know that it will be very hard to beat is Geelong but a 15% chance is a chance. We have a 40% chance of beating WC, 45% Hawthorn and Collingwood 50% Carl ( We have a good history against Blues at G even in bad years) 55% Syd Saints Bombers 60% Dogs and Tigers. 75 Lions

Ludicrous odds. I'll see you on Betfair!

[dpositive 1,663]

This site is a bit addictive for an enthusiastic Demon supporter retired to the country. Yes there can be plenty of skiing and much involvement in the local community including our own Beechworth Bushies who carry the red and Blue and Milawa who carry the demon colours. We dont have the benefit of 5 year rebuilding up here and I think that MFC has often confused a 10 year business plan with a game plan. The window for player performance is very short and we should be aiming as Neeld apparently is for success quickly. I am pleased with the list development and hope that all players are used with maximum exploitation of their skill.

I agree that Saints and Dogs should be sliding and hope we are ahead of Richmond Essendon etc

We dont have a proven Judd star but Trengove and a team around to create space and movement will be interesting. With Clark adding muscle Watts getting stronger we could have a Brereton/ Brown figure in the forward line. Although I like Watts speed on the wing. We have plenty of options with Davey returning to the forward line for the small crumber and with Bate and even Dunn of the flanks we have plenty of options also for attack. I can even remember when Green was a Striker, every touch though not many seemed to result in a goal, I hope he can find that form again.

The Defence as many of you guys have pointed out is solid with options for every forward line in the comp and if we can get the mix right on the day we are competitive in every match.

Despite our miserable years we have been more competitive against the pies and have shown we can play great patches. A new coach to inspire the performance we need from every player can see us get a great start with some surprising (to others) wins. I just hope we can see every match that we are competitive and that players have given their all. With heads up we can win more than we lose.

[Harrisonrules 273]

Those four teams beat us seven times in 2011 by a total of 412 points @ 58 points average margin. Our average score in those games was 59.

So you've given up on the strength of last year. Hope you enjoy your footy as much as I do

[Harrisonrules 273]

Ludicrous odds. I'll see you on Betfair!

Put your money where your mouth is and quote your suggested odds. Or have you already given up on most games

[rpfc 28,280]

Put your money where your mouth is and quote your suggested odds. Or have you already given up on most games

Well if we are talking about percentage of winning I would say that if we played Collingwood ten times this year we would be lucky to win twice (20%).

If we played WCE or Geelong at their respective home grounds ten times in 2012 we would be lucky to win 1 (10%).

It is ludicrous to say that we would beat WCE 4 times out of ten...

Edited March 1, 2012 by rpfc

[Trisul 664]

So you've given up on the strength of last year. Hope you enjoy your footy as much as I do

Not at all.

I simply see no reason to assume that teams that doubled our scores last year will allow us the fantasy of having a 40-50% win chance this year.

[Sir Why You Little 36,993]

Not at all.

I simply see no reason to assume that teams that doubled our scores last year will allow us the fantasy of having a 40-50% win chance this year.

Look at the forward line of last year. Thankfully very different to the 2012 model.

How far did you factor that in out of interest?

Edited March 2, 2012 by why you little

[Trisul 664]

Look at the forward line of last year. Thankfully very different to the 2012 model.

How far did you factor that in out of interest?

Double the output better? Or, 50% better forward and back? 33% better forward, mid, and back?

Most of the changes between 2011 and now will have positive impacts, but when?

Won't most of them also have short term pain? Clark barrelling into Watts, average press application that gets run through / kicked over .. etc, etc.

To answer your question, a little - building through the first 11 rounds. Just as the short term pain starts high and mostly fades away.

The major presumption in all this though, if we are to win more than three games of these eleven, is that the top eight from last year has regressed enough that our improvements from 13th will see us out perform them. My computer says No.

[Sir Why You Little 36,993]

Double the output better? Or, 50% better forward and back? 33% better forward, mid, and back?

Most of the changes between 2011 and now will have positive impacts, but when?

Won't most of them also have short term pain? Clark barrelling into Watts, average press application that gets run through / kicked over .. etc, etc.

To answer your question, a little - building through the first 11 rounds. Just as the short term pain starts high and mostly fades away.

The major presumption in all this though, if we are to win more than three games of these eleven, is that the top eight from last year has regressed enough that our improvements from 13th will see us out perform them. My computer says No.

I think it will be a close call at the 11 game mark...Neeld & Craig will learn a lot Quickly.

[furious d 463]

If we win 7+ before the bye we will make the top 4, it's very unlikely. If we win 5 or 6 we'll make the 8.

For the record I tipped 4, the 8 will be possible from there but not certain, we'll have to have a good second half and win at least 8.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,199]

Brisbane at the G - should win this one

WCE in Perth - Will lose this one

Tigers at the G - 50/50 if Jurrah is back should win otherwise not confident

Bulldogs at the G - another one I see as 50/50 I think we'll win one of either this game or the game against the Saints

Saints at the G - see above

Geelong in Mordor - loss

Hawthorn at the G - loss

Sydney in Sydney - not sure we usually play ok at SCG so think this one is winnable

Carlton at the G - loss

Essendon at the G - win

Collingwood at the G - loss

So I think at the halfway mark we will likely have about 4 wins setting us up for a decent crack at the top 8 considering the run home we have.

[titan_uranus 24,980]

I'll give my reasoning:

Beat the Lions at home in Neeld's first game.

Get thrashed in Perth.

Pip the Tigers, who unforunately, have an amazing midfield that is far better than ours. We have Frawley though, and that means they don't have Riewoldt...

Beat the rebuilding Bulldogs at the G.

Beat the Saints because it is at the G.

At 4 and 1 go to Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and Carlton and lose all respect we gained in the first 5 weeks...

Beat the Bombers as they arrogantly come off a hiding of the GWS questioning whether we will be any better...

And get told by the Pies to 'stay down!'

This is EXACTLY how I see it.

The only two possible exceptions I envisage are the WB and St Kilda games. We could easily lose both (despite them being at the G), and thus be 2-3 before proceeding to lose the four in a row. Which actually makes six in a row. So 2-1 becomes 2-7, we are the basketcase side of the comp (GWS aside, as they don't count), and then beat Essendon, who are in the top 8, just because we can.

Of course, no one knows anything about how things will turn out, and we could easily lose to Brisbane in Round 1, get Neeld all angry, and do something ridiculous like beat West Coast in Perth.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

now's a good time for the OP to make his long-awaited second half of the draw poll :D