THE THIRD DRAFT

[Demonland 66,923]

THE THIRD DRAFT: Continuing Stevo's guide to the last Thursday in November as told to Whispering Jack

THE TALLS

I have been asked why is it that, in terms of this year's national draft, the midfielders so dominate the talls in both quality and depth. Perhaps one way to respond is to look at the 2009 NAB AFL under 18 All-Australian team:

B: Andrew Hooper (VC) Blayne Wilson (WA) Bradley Sheppard (WA)

HB: Josh Toy (VM) Daniel Talia (VM) David Swallow (WA)

C: Anthony Morabito (WA) Dustin Martin (VC) Mitchell Duncan (WA)

HF: Kane Lucas (WA) Jack Darling (WA) Gary Rohan (VC)

F: Brandon Matera (WA) Matthew Panos (SA) Ben Cunnington (VC)

Foll: James Craig (SA) Jack Trengove (SA) Tom Scully (VM)

IC: Luke Tapscott (SA) Ryan Harwood (TAS) Dylan McNeil (NSW/ACT) Travis Colyer (WA)

From the team of 22, five are too young to be drafted this year by the AFL clubs and most are destined for the Gold Coast. Two of them - Blayne Wilson and Jack Darling are key position talls. Of the remaining 17 players judged to be the elite players from the 2009 National Under 18 championships, ruckman James Craig from South Australia is the tallest at 195cm. Centre half back Daniel Talia (at 194cm) and full forward Matthew Panos (192cm) are the only other players you would describe as a "tall" leaving a preponderance of medium and small players in this illustrious field.

Then there's the spectre of injury. Many prime candidates among the taller brigade had their year clouded by injury problems. Two early season top 10 draft candidates in Maffra key forward John Butcher and Western Jets ruckman Jack Fitzpatrick have had injury interrupted seasons which have seen their stocks slide. Strongly built Eastern Ranges tall forward Ben Griffiths, probably the most injury prone of them all, has had a multitude of ailments over the past two seasons will soon undergo a shoulder reconstruction as a result of an injury in the early part of the TAC Cup finals series while versatile Jake Carlisle, considered a likely first-round choice from the Calder Cannons, is also in the wars with a back problem. All Australian Talia missed most of the second half of the season with hamstring issues. The tallest potential draftee is 207cm Sandringham Dragon ruckman sustained a knee injury before this year's under-18 championships and had little game time during the season. With many of the best talls confined to the infirmary, the medium sized players have dominated this year's draft discussions.

That latter group has also gained much prominence in modern times because of the importance of the midfield in the modern game which has elevated medium sized on ballers in particular to the games loftiest heights. When you add this to the fact that this category of player develops sooner than its taller counterparts, then the advantages of drafting medium sized becomes clear. There have been many recruiting disasters among the taller group of players in recent times to make most recruiters wary. Only a special type of tall player is going to fight his way into top ten calculations these days.

So I'm taking the plunge with my look at the better talls and, once again, will follow my views up with the comments of their coaches taken from Inside Football: -

Paradoxically, I can only squeeze one tall into my top ten as one of Port Adelaide's consecutive selections although, in many ways, John Butcher makes it more on reputation than on 2009 performance.

John Butcher (Gippsland Power, VIC) Height: 197cm, Weight: 84kg, DOB: 03.07.91 Tall forward

Butcher has good height and last year stood out as an excellent contested mark who was good below the knees and, considering his size, above average in pace and endurance. This year he was injured (fractured hand and quad strain) and the attributes he showed as a bottom age player did not show out as much. His performances became inconsistent and his kicking for goal and general field kicking became very iffy. As a result, his stocks fell from a top five rating to top twelve. He remains the best credentialed key forward prospect in the forthcoming draft and a mid first round selection beckons.

IF: "John is a key forward who could play down back and in the ruck if he wanted to. Very agile and quick for his height. Had an injury interrupted pre-season but played very well for us and at national carnival level he copped a bit of scrutiny and didn't play as well as he would have liked. We think he's a super talent and he'll go on and be a very good AFL player. He's a superb contested mark. He was ranked very highly in the TAC Cup for contested marks. The way he moves is exceptional," - Gippsland Power coach Damian Carroll. Vic Country representative 2008/09. AIS-AFL academy graduate

There are three other talls who I rate a little behind Butcher but who are likely go in the first round as double digit selections. One of these could easily end up a Demon selected at pick 11 in next week's draft.

Daniel Talia (Calder Cannons, VIC) Height: 194cm, Weight: 89kg, DOB: 02.10.91 Tall back

The All-Australian centre half-back at this year's under-18 championships but he is much more than just a high quality key defender. He takes a good mark, can also play forward and has such great all-round athletic qualities with good pace and endurance and excellent ball getting skills and reasonably good disposal that he can also play midfield for periods during games (as he did in the final championship game against South Australia at Etihad Stadium). A hamstring injury curtailed the latter part of his year

IF: "We played Daniel at centre half forward and he's an All Australian at centre half back, so he can play at either end, as well as midfield which he did at times for Vic Metro. He's a big unit and he wouldn't look out of place in an AFL team tomorrow. He's a genuine tall who I think will be very attractive to some clubs- Calder Cannons coach Martin Allison. Vic Metro representative 2009. All Australian 2009

Aaron Black (Peel Thunder, WA) Height: 193cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 29.11.90 Tall forward

Aaron Black was a virtual unknown when many of the other draft contenders were battling it out in the national under 18 championships. He was a little over a month too old for inclusion in the carnival and was working away putting good performances on the board as a high marking, athletic key forward in the WA Colts for Peel Thunder. His star rose as the season went on and he gained selection at senior WAFL level where he again shone. Being a late starter, it is considered that he has plenty more development in him.

IF: "Aaron is a key forward who can also have a run in the ruck and has done some good jobs down back. He has good speed for his size, terrific hands (he came from a basketball background so is very good with his hands). Played Colts for most of the year and a couple of games of seniors towards the end of the year where he picked up some best and grounds, which was a pretty good effort. Really ready to go and I think he's going to do very well" - Peel Thunder Colts coach Michael Pratt

Jake Carlisle (Calder Cannons, VIC) Height: 197cm, Weight: 87kg, DOB: 01.10.91 Tall forward

Carlisle is another who grew in stature as the season wore on. Although he was noted as a tall forward, he was moved to the centre half back post when Talia was injured and excelled in that position thanks to his mobility, good aerial presence, clean marking and accurate disposal whether around the ground or near goals making him one of the very best key position prospects in this year's crop

IF: "Jake can play forward or back and I don't think he quite realises how good he can be. He's got enormous potential once he gets a bit of confidence in his own ability. His skills are good and particularly up to 40 metres his kicking is really good - somewhere up in the middle 70s in terms of efficiency. He's possibly a late first round or early second round selection," - Calder Cannons coach Martin Allison. Vic Metro representative 2009

The next tier of tall players could sneak into the first round and in this group I include the player who I believe could easily be the first ruck prospect whose name is called out in the draft.

Benjamin Griffiths (Eastern Ranges, VIC) Height: 198cm, Weight: 99kg, DOB: 17.09.91 Tall forward

Griffiths is a big, strong key forward who has deceptively strong athletic ability for someone of his size – good pace, agility and leap with clean hands. His kicking on the right foot is prodigious and he is capable of kicking goals from 60 metres and his kicking is generally on target. There are some queries over his work rate but the big issue with him is the fact that he appears to be injury prone. A forthcoming shoulder reconstruction will not be particularly helpful but a club that is desperate for his type might consider drafting him early to be a gamble worth taking.

IF: "Ben's a power forward who had some injury concerns during the year, but when he was fit and playing well he was really dangerous. He kicked six goals against the eventual premier (Calder Cannons) but he didn't do a lot at the draft camp because he had a crook shoulder. He played two games for Vic Metro and in one of them he kicked five goals in a half against NSW/ACT. The thing that will push him up is his mobility for his size. His speed over 20 metres is really good and his agility and clean ball at ground level is great. There aren't many like him in the draft and we hope he goes maybe late second or third round. We've had clubs tell us he will go late and others say he'll go really early." - Eastern Ranges region manager Anthony Parkin. Vic Metro representative 2009

Matthew Panos (Norwood, SA) Height: 192cm, Weight: 85kg, DOB: 25.01.91 Full Forward

The All Australian full forward Was the leading goalkicker of the under 18 championships but appears to have slipped out of first round contention, perhaps simply because he is not a fashionable player. Panos is a genuine full forward who leads strongly, has clean hands and makes good decisions. Is good around goals and an excellent kick of the football. There is a query on his endurance which remains important even though he plays at one end of the ground.

"Matthew came out of the college system in 2008 and hasn't played a lot of footy - he's probably played for only the past two or so years. He comes from an indoor soccer background and he's a very good volleyball and tennis player. He played state indoor soccer so he's very nimble on his feet. This year he went to university and started our year in the Under 18s, went on and played state Under 18s and had a really good carnival and then ended the year by playing two games in the senior side. Plays key forward and is a magnificent kick and mark. Other than that, everything else is good without being super." - Norwood development manager David Oatey. SA representative 2009. All Australian 2009

Nathan Vardy (Gippsland Power, VIC) Height: 198cm, Weight: 89kg, DOB: 25/06/91 Ruckman

Vardy stands out as the best ruckman in a draft that is very light on for big men. What makes him stand out are his ruckwork and general all round football skills, a combination that is not common in many young big men. He's very strong overhead, kicks well and has the agility required of the modern breed of ruckman.

"Nathan's a ruckman who I think was right up there with the best ruckmen in the TAC Cup. Very athletic, moves across the ground really well and has good skills for a big guy. He dominated some matches this season for us after having an injury interrupted 2008." - Gippsland Power coach Damian Carroll. Vic Country representative 2009

There are other talls in the field but, as I've already pointed out, they're pretty thin on the ground. Of the remaining tall players worthy of consideration, I list the following:

James Craig (North Adelaide, SA) Height: 195cm, Weight: 91kg, DOB: 18.04.91 Ruckman/defender

"James has come through our system and he's a ruck-man with a beautiful tap. He's very athletic and given he's 196cm someone might look at him to play a key position role because he might be a bit small for a ruck in the AFL Did that at reserves level and did OK. Played two league games late in the year and did well. A great kid who really wants to learn." - North Adelaide football manager James Moore SA Representative 2009

Jack Fitzpatrick (Western Jets, VIC) Height: 201cm, Weight: 85kg, DOB: 26.06.91 Full Forward/Ruck

"Fitzy's up around the 200cm mark and he's very mobile for his size which was highlighted by the fact he ran under three seconds for 20 metres. He was No.1 at the draft camp for repeated sprints and did OK in the beep test. Worked really hard towards the end of the season on his fitness because for some reason he was a little down this year after having a really good 2008. He is yet to do a pre-season because he's had chronic fatigue syndrome which obviously has played a part in hindering his development. We played him forward and back and while we didn't play him much in the ruck he played there with Vic Metro. Skills aren't too bad, although he needs to keep working on his kicking, but he's a good contested mark and on a lead he's very hard to beat. I think he'll get drafted and when he gets into the AFL system I think he's got the attributes to take the next step." Western Jets coach Steve Kretiuk. Vic Metro representative 2009. AIS-AFL Academy graduate

Max Gawn (Sandringham Dragons, VIC) Height: 206cm, Weight: 97kg, DOB: 28.12.91 Ruckman

"Max played only four games because he did his ACL in Round 5 against the Geelong Falcons. The games he played up to that point he certainly showed a lot of promise and being 206cm if he makes an AFL list he'd be the second tallest player in the AFL. He came into the system late last year and played a handful of games but he was still very raw. Misses the cut off as a top-age player by one day so he's yet to turn 18 but he's got another 12 months development in him again. Potentially he's got some outstanding attributes and the signs he displayed early in the year were very promising." Sandringham Dragons coach Dale Tapping

Dylan Grimes (Northern Knights, VIC) Height: 192cm, Weight: 81kg, DOB: 16.07.91 Defender

"Dylan has probably been disadvantaged a little this year because he's had to play in a key defensive spot but he's better suited to a wing/half back. Flank. It's been tough for him because he hasn't got huge body strength but he's got all the requirements to play AFL football". Northern Knights coach Denis Pagan. Vic Metro representative 2009

Dylan Roberton (Dandenong Stingrays, VIC) Height: 190cm, Weight: 78kg, DOB: 21.06.91 Defender

"Dylan's a 190cm half-back flanker who has really jumped out of the ground as an 18-year-old this year. There was a fair bit to work on after his first year with us but he got a lot stronger, a lot fitter and a hell of a lot more competitive. He's quite en attacking defender, and while he is good defensively, he's very good at rebounding and kicks the ball well both sides of his body. He's got some good attributes and I can see him playing a bit of AFL" - Dandenong Stingrays coach Graeme Yeats.

Troy Taylor (NT Thunder, NT) Height: 188cm, Weight: 75kg, DOB: 12.09.91 Forward

"The most publicised of the players from the NT given his chequered past (missed the 2008 season because he was in a juvenile detention centre). Has vowed to do everything right to make something of his life with football. He is a smooth moving medium forward who reads the ball well and is very agile when the ball hits the deck. Some scouts are calling him the next Michael O'Loughlin. Has a good defensive mindset and great ability to win contested ball. I'd expect a club to give him a chance early in the second round." - AFLNT talent and coaching manager Jarrod Chipperfield. NT representative 2009.

To sum up the talls in 2009, I would say that you shouldn't expect to get much value picking a tall player beyond about 25 (although a recycled Mitch Thorp taken late might turn out a good selection) but then again, it's just one of those drafts.

[Spirit of the Demon 211]

Thanks for the series Stevo.

Most informative.

[Theo 263]

Thanks for the series Stevo.

Most informative.

Excellent work. Hope we get Black at 11 and one of Vardy, Griffiths, or Carlisle at 18. I have a strong feeling that one of these 3 will still be around at 34 because of the current injury concerns of Carlisle and Griffiths. Let's also not forget Craig as he has not been in the top 30 in most phantom drafts.

It might be worth the gamble to take best available at 18 and hope one of the talls slide to 34.

[rpfc 27,678]

I just wanted to discuss a irritation that I, and others (notably 45HG16), see from time to time.

The irritation surrounds the idea that some seem to be overlooking a particular issue when it comes to drafting a KPF at Pick 11 or Pick 18, or both.

The issue is that we should not look to get the best KP player at 11 or 18 unless we can see that player being able to command a decent amount of football in a forward line containing Watts, Jurrah, and Bate.

What I am saying is that unless this player is as good as those three then they won't play a role equal to what we have invested - Picks 11 or 18, but particularly 11.

I don't see Bate as a deep forward player, but Jurrah certainly will be (indeed, he will be our focal point starting 2010), and Watts will play a role in between Jurrah and Bate (switching from deep to outside 50).

So, Jurrah will be the 'Number 1 Forward' and Watts 'Number 2 Forward' or vice-versa (That is my opinion, which can change if a compelling case is made).

So do we spend Pick 11 on a 'Number 3 Forward' (at best considering the rate Bate is coming on), or do we simply forget about this 'need' and pick whichever player we rate as the 11th best kid in the draft?

[71 Molloy 266]

Would go for jurrah as a mid in a couple of years if we can build some endurance. His height, pace and evasivness would be very difficult to match up on.

With that in mind I still think we need to look at kpf's with 11 & 18 with and empysis on a big body. Doesn't have to develop into a star, just good for 30-40 goals a season (not a career as in miller)

[rpfc 27,678]

Would go for jurrah as a mid in a couple of years if we can build some endurance. His height, pace and evasivness would be very difficult to match up on.

With that in mind I still think we need to look at kpf's with 11 & 18 with and empysis on a big body. Doesn't have to develop into a star, just good for 30-40 goals a season (not a career as in miller)

I see him as a decade long FF that could reliably kick 2 to 3 every week and the occasional bag. I see him as a 60 to 70 goalkicker.

His talents would be wasted in the midfield.

The opposition would love to have him that far away from the goals.

[Bay Riffin 1,427]

We will be on the lookout for a big body like Griffiths because number 1 forward or not, Jurrah will not be a key position player to base a team around. Even Bailey said he was surprised he has not put on weight since being in Melbourne.

A big body, even like a Lynch at West Coast is what will fit into our structure. We need a more traditional full forward, as we will have the crumbers in Aussie, Maric, Davey, Jurrah to take advantage of the ball at ground level.

[rpfc 27,678]

We will be on the lookout for a big body like Griffiths because number 1 forward or not, Jurrah will not be a key position player to base a team around. Even Bailey said he was surprised he has not put on weight since being in Melbourne.

A big body, even like a Lynch at West Coast is what will fit into our structure. We need a more traditional full forward, as we will have the crumbers in Aussie, Maric, Davey, Jurrah to take advantage of the ball at ground level.

But if said player isn't good enough to attract the ball from mids who will look up and see Jurrah and Watts, what's the point?

[Dee tention 611]

Pick 11 needs to be used on the best KP I think. And I have no doubt that is Black! If he is gone by 11. I would consider Tapscott or Lucas who both could slide to 11.

I would be looking at something like this.

11. Black

18. Best available KP (eg. Carlisle) or I would seriously consider Bastinac if he is still there.

or

If Black is gone;

11. Tapscott or Lucas

18. Best available KP. (eg. Carlisle/Griffiths/Panos)

That means Pick 34 would need to be used possibly on a big body aswell. We need at least 2 big guys from this draft.

I am sure one of Tapscott, Lucas might be there at 11.

[dee-luded 2,958]

Would go for jurrah as a mid in a couple of years if we can build some endurance. His height, pace and evasivness would be very difficult to match up on.

With that in mind I still think we need to look at kpf's with 11 & 18 with and empysis on a big body. Doesn't have to develop into a star, just good for 30-40 goals a season (not a career as in miller)

I think our need is when we make the top 4, in about 4 years time, we should have Jurrah as a 3rd type tall roaming the forward zone, or into the mid zone. I see Bate, as a 3rd type also, but as you say leading up, & doubling back deep occaisionally. I don't think he can play deep forward full time as he's not a one touch player.

Watts is a lone hand Tall Forward at this stage looking ahead, so IMO, our needs are that Neitz style player, who can play up & down the spine whilst youthfull, but Must be a sound pack mark. Mobile & quick enough to play defence or forward.

We have Martin and also Garland, if he recovers, as swing manalternatives to play forward on occaision.

We need someone out of the group of talls @ the draft pool who has the attributes of height, strength, an excellent kick, quickness & agility, as well as a strong pack mark, for our pick 11. The closest to these specs should be our target, I don't know if there is one who has most of these skills allready, but the best one to develope into this is the one I want.

Maybe Black, Talia has some of these skills, Carlisle.

Pick 18, someone like Craig who can double as a follower who can kick goals & is a very good mark could be interesting.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,000]

The way I see it, we need a tank up forward. Griffiths or Butcher would do nicely because they have the size to crash packs and do damage, and really good athleticism. I'd love to see one of them playing out of the goal square and wreaking havoc in the forward half of the ground. That would allow Watts, Jurrah and Bate to rove and run their opponents ragged.

[Dee tention 611]

The way I see it, we need a tank up forward. Griffiths or Butcher would do nicely because they have the size to crash packs and do damage, and really good athleticism. I'd love to see one of them playing out of the goal square and wreaking havoc in the forward half of the ground. That would allow Watts, Jurrah and Bate to rove and run their opponents ragged.

Pick 11. Black

Pick 18. Griffiths

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

So do we spend Pick 11 on a 'Number 3 Forward' (at best considering the rate Bate is coming on), or do we simply forget about this 'need' and pick whichever player we rate as the 11th best kid in the draft?

Picking up a 3rd key forward is not like saying we're picking up a player that will automatically be surperfluous. You don't go into a season with just the three star KP forwards. You need depth, and often that depth is the younger kids learning the ropes while the bigger bodies try to take the next step. What if Bate gets hurt? What if Jurrah asks to be shifted to the GC for more money? What if, God forbid, Watts turns out to be a spud? I would hope that the 3 next best KP forwards weren't just late-pick project players like Newton.

Having said that, I think pick 11 in ANY draft (including a shallow one like this) has to be best available. I just reckon if they can't split it between Tapscott and Black... maybe they will go the tall as it addresses a need, and it's a 50/50 choice anyway.

Pick 18 I reckon will be among the first ones that will surprise people... and should we pick up the best available with 11, surely you would be ok with pick 18 going for a needed type of player, right?

[Adzman 2,086]

Fantastic Post! 5 stars all the way!

Just on Pagan's comments on grimes; I wonder if he will lose his pace and agility when his body develops? Obviously he is in need of a few kilos (a few might angus burgers might be closer to the point), but will this take away from what makes him a prospect at AFL level? If not he could very well be a solid acquisition for the MFC.

[brey9186 102]

can we forget about Liam jurrah as a key forward? get in 1 or 2 more big bodies, and cause opposition teams more headaches than they know what to do with!

[Tatu 416]

Big body KPF are way over rated, John Brown, fev ect......... who knows if big body KPF are needed in the formula for a premiership side?

Jurrah will be a great Full Forward, for years to come.

Would be very happy if MFC drafted Tapscott or Lucas, with pick 11.

[green_machine 36]

I totally agree with rpfc, our forward line should have enough talent based on who we have now. A few players who can play as a reasonable marking target and mid-fielders rotating through. My concern with using picks 11 & 18 on a tall just because we deem we need a big bodied KPF is that the pick will be wasted. You are not going to get a decent one. You only need to look through previous drafts at the sort of quality you get in a tall picked up from 8 to 30 to see that this is not the answer. Jamar / Johnson and Martin can all play the big crash and bash style player with different levels of effectiveness, they are not browns or riewolts but they are as good as anyone you will get with picks 11 & 18 based on history.

The only top level forward I can think of picked up after pick 5 (excluding father sons) is Fev and he is hardly your bash and crash forward that everyone is fixated upon.

If you want to disprove my argument, do not just repeat we just go butcher because he is the best, instead go through the naughties drafts and name the players picked between 8 and 30 that you think represents a tall good enough to slot into our future forward line. If you can not do this, then for goodness sake stop carrying on about how we should go for one of this set of talls because they are the best.

Edited November 20, 2009 by green_machine

[DirtyDees DDC 171]

The issue is that we should not look to get the best KP player at 11 or 18 unless we can see that player being able to command a decent amount of football in a forward line containing Watts, Jurrah, and Bate.

What I am saying is that unless this player is as good as those three then they won't play a role equal to what we have invested - Picks 11 or 18, but particularly 11.

We may have no choice but to choose a tall key position player for picks 11 and 18. It looks like the middies will dominate the top 10, with Butcher the exception.

That leaves a pool of 5-6 talls such as Talia, Black, Vardy, and Carlisle that are tipped to go before the second round. My preference is Black. He's mobile, he has basketball hands, and came equal second in kicking skills at the draft camp.

They will also take time to develop. Looking at last years draft, only 2 of the 10 players picked b/w 10 and 19 played senior footy this year.

We don't know if any of these players will be as good as Watts, Jurrah and Bate. But we don't even know how good Watts, Jurrah and Bate will be in 3-5 years time. I look at our current player list and see a screaming need for another tall option in 3-5 years besides Watts. Imagine Watts, Jurrah and Black being good enough to rotate thru the key forward positions.

I don't know about Jurrah as a permanent FF. I'm old fashioned and i like the big KPF as a target. However the way the game is changing, we may have 20-25% of our players coming from indigenous and overseas backgrounds by 2015. We may regard Jurrah's body size as the ideal shape for a FF or CHF. I agree that Jurrah will be our no. 1 forward target next year. But i'd also like to see him on the wing. And in the middle. Can we clone him? Maybe he has a cousin?

Edited November 20, 2009 by DirtyDees DDC

[Redleg 38,495]

Pick 11 needs to be used on the best KP I think. And I have no doubt that is Black!

You are clearly sold on Black. I am curious, have you ever seen him play a full game, or are you relying on You Tube highlights and some complimentary newspaper articles?

If it is the latter do you think that a well written article could be influencing your opinion.

PS. I am not saying Black is not a good player, the truth is I don't know who would be the best key forward tall as I have only seen a few of them and limited exposure at that.

[Adelaide Demon 0]

I keep having this completely silly feeling that we are going to get Butcher with 11. Wouldn't that be fkn awesome!!

[H_T 2,941]

The issue is that we should not look to get the best KP player at 11 or 18 unless we can see that player being able to command a decent amount of football in a forward line containing Watts, Jurrah, and Bate.

What I am saying is that unless this player is as good as those three then they won't play a role equal to what we have invested - Picks 11 or 18, but particularly 11.

I don't see Bate as a deep forward player, but Jurrah certainly will be (indeed, he will be our focal point starting 2010), and Watts will play a role in between Jurrah and Bate (switching from deep to outside 50).

So, Jurrah will be the 'Number 1 Forward' and Watts 'Number 2 Forward' or vice-versa (That is my opinion, which can change if a compelling case is made).

So do we spend Pick 11 on a 'Number 3 Forward' (at best considering the rate Bate is coming on), or do we simply forget about this 'need' and pick whichever player we rate as the 11th best kid in the draft?

If you're confident enough that Bate is the man that will assist Jurrah & Watts in my future multi-dimensional, multi-optional forward line, I'm with you all the way rp. I'm on the best available player option at every pick.

With Newton having been delisted and Miller's future uncertain after a one year extension, to me adds weight to the likelihood of a KPP being picked, albeit just one pick.

It's my understanding that Bailey & Co. want another KPF as well as mids. They have stated as such mid year. With 1 & 2 going to mids I see pick 11 as a viable pick to meet the FD needs. But I will support the FD which ever way they go.

[Akum 2,660]

Great OP. I can understand why some are so enamoured of the big "crashing-the-pack" mark & goal because it looks so good when it happens, but in reality it so rarely happens. The top big forwards get most of their marks & goals on a lead, and many of the rest in a one-on-one contest, and a lot of their goals come when the ball hits the ground. Relying on a big-bodied forward to "crash a pack" must be the most low-percentage way to goal.

All forwards, even big forwards, need above all to be mobile, to kick straight, and to apply defensive pressure. With Watts, Jurrah & Bate, a big stationary forward would make us top-heavy, while a big mobile forward would be OK. If we choose one big forward with either 11 or 18, they must be mobile, kick straight & chase. Two talls would be a missed opportunity. A very mobile tall (Talia?) and a straight-kicking smaller forward (Tapscott?) would balance it well.

HT is on the money with the "multi-dimensional, multi-optional forward line". The best would be to have 6 forwards who are all capable of getting 5 goals in a single game, but who between them have as many different ways of getting those goals as possible.

[Footynut 302]

Great OP. I can understand why some are so enamoured of the big "crashing-the-pack" mark & goal because it looks so good when it happens, but in reality it so rarely happens. The top big forwards get most of their marks & goals on a lead, and many of the rest in a one-on-one contest, and a lot of their goals come when the ball hits the ground. Relying on a big-bodied forward to "crash a pack" must be the most low-percentage way to goal.

All forwards, even big forwards, need above all to be mobile, to kick straight, and to apply defensive pressure. With Watts, Jurrah & Bate, a big stationary forward would make us top-heavy, while a big mobile forward would be OK. If we choose one big forward with either 11 or 18, they must be mobile, kick straight & chase. Two talls would be a missed opportunity. A very mobile tall (Talia?) and a straight-kicking smaller forward (Tapscott?) would balance it well.

HT is on the money with the "multi-dimensional, multi-optional forward line". The best would be to have 6 forwards who are all capable of getting 5 goals in a single game, but who between them have as many different ways of getting those goals as possible.

IMO we have our top talent Forward in Watts....and complimented with options such as Jarrah, Bate, Green (please play him there as an option!!) even Bruce and Davey and times will cause other teams immense headaches. Not to mention Pettard, Maric who if we see more improvement out of those guys we have plenty of options!

Hawthorn and Bris are the only 2 teams in the comp that have 2 top talent tall forwards....

Kosi at the saints is not a top talent tall forward IMO. He is a Stefan Martin type switcher...

I think that it will take more courage to stay the course from our FD and pick best available than to resist a big risk on a tall at 11. Picking a tall at is a safe option but and rightly pointed out generally they are never world beaters at this pick.

Id be more inclined to go with best available.

Getting some feeling in my bones we are going to take Black at 11 and Ball at 18.....

Then the best available ruck option at 34......

Thursday cant come quick enough can it!! Then we can all get over ourselves doing our own heads in....

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I will run through a few arguments for going for a KPF at 11.

"We need a tall, deep target to take the pressure off Jurrah and Watts"

Now this the argument for a big lump in the square crashing packs, provide a 'release target,' and kicking the odd bag. Can Jamar do that? Can Martin do that? Can you afford to carry a player like that who doesn't have another role (ie ruckman)? Does Black have the physique for that? Does Talia?

"We need a big body to make Jurrah a 3rd tall so he can do more damage"

Just because you want him to be the '3rd tall' doesn't mean he will get the '3rd best defender' or that our midfielders will kick it to him any less. As I said before, if Pick 11 is going to make Jurrah a '3rd tall' - he better be effing good! Is there someone that good in the draft? Is Black THAT good? Is Talia THAT good?

These are the thoughts I want BP to go through - he has to select, not the best tall at that stage of the draft, but a tall who would have as much potential as Watts and Jurrah.

"We need depth in our talls in case Watts, Jurrah, or Bate get injured"

You can't replace your best players. Mitch Thorp was recruited as depth for Roughhead and Franklin - how did that work out? Recruiting for depth in the first round? You can argue that you're not sold on Watts, Jurrah, and Bate and that another talented forward will be needed if they don't come on but that's an argument I would love to have.

[Tatu 416]

I'm finding it funny that people here, don't think Jurrah can be a KPF. Then float names like Black as the great KPF pick up, who is 1cm or 2cm taller than Jurrah but without the skills.