Draftee Ratings

[ChaserJ 4,087]

Temel & Majak Daw were both overlooked by Burgan. Surely this would indicate that they are an outside chance. Rookie at best for them, other wise a very late pick.

Burgan only rated Draft Camp invitees. These two didn't score an invite, hence not rated in his posts.

[Demon Tragic 0]

Burgan only rated Draft Camp invitees. These two didn't score an invite, hence not rated in his posts.

Not scoring in invite to the main camp is also a pretty good indication. I'm not saying they're crap, just that they're an outside chance and not worth wasting a top 40 pick on.

[furious d 447]

Burgo's done, so what can we mere mortals glean from the wash up.

According to Burgo:

Definite top 10 picks; Scully 1-2, Trengove 1-3, Martin 2-5, Morabito 2-5, Rohan 2-9 and Cunnington3-10

I think this shows we are considering all these blokes except Cunnington and keeping our options open till draft day, as we should. I think it'd take a minor miracle for us to not take Scully and Trengove though. These are the names we can put a line through for pick 11 if Burgo's mail is correct, anyone else is a possibility.

Possible top 10 picks; Jetta 4-20, Butcher 5-20, Carlisle 5-20, Lucas 6-14, Tapscott 6-18, Sheppard 7-20, Melksham 8-20, Moore 8-20, Talia 8-25, Taylor 8-25 and Vardy 8-25

11 names here, 4 will be gone before our 3rd pick It shows that Butcher is no longer in the elite bracket this draft and means he could fall to us. Carlisle is more versatile playing back and forward and could be preferred by a club with a top 10 pick looking for a KPP. Jetta, Lucas and Tapscott could make our decision at 11 very difficult if they're available. I'd probably take butcher ahead of them but I'm not sure on Carlisle, may be better to hope for Griffiths, Black, Panos or Craig at 18.

Possible top 20 picks; Christensen 10-25, Black 10-25, Bastinac 10-25, Griffiths 10-35, Fitzpatrick 10-35, Stevens 12-20, Gysberts 12-30, Crichton 12-30, Reid 12-45, Colyer 15-40, Duncan 15-40, McMillan-Pittard 15-35, Panos 15-rookie, Dare 15-late, and Craig 18-late

The first 5 names here are an outside chance of sneaking into the top 10 according to Burgo, but I think it's unlikely. If they do it increases our chances of someone more highly rated slipping to 11. I think this shows that Panos, Temel and Daw aren't worth pick 11 and that there will likely be better options available at 18 if we need to go tall with that pick. Also of note is Stevens ranking at 12-20, he's a lock for the bombers pick 10 in 90% of Phantom drafts and that is a narrow range for a late first round pick.

[Keyser Söze 0]

You can read also sorts of things out of this, eg. Butcher 5-20 would indicate that even if he were still available at our pick 18 we may not take him, which I think is interesting.

Although Burgan obviously knows a lot more than any of the hacks posting Phantom Drafts on Big Footy, even he is still making guesses, educated or not.

[Dee*ceiving 1,231]

What about Nicholas Winmar with pick 51? If ever there was an indigenous name synonymous with the AFL it's Winmar

[furious d 447]

You can read also sorts of things out of this, eg. Butcher 5-20 would indicate that even if he were still available at our pick 18 we may not take him, which I think is interesting.

Although Burgan obviously knows a lot more than any of the hacks posting Phantom Drafts on Big Footy, even he is still making guesses, educated or not.

I never meant to take the rankings that literally. They're more of a guide really, I think I equivocated with lines such as "if Burgo's mail is correct" where necessary.

You started this thread and have posted heavily on it, then you seem to dismiss it as worthless because it's only Burgan's guesses. I thought the point was that his guesses were educated.

The commentary I "read into this" is my opinion as it relates to his opinion, but I thought that was obvious, this being a forum for opinions.

[Keyser Söze 0]

I never meant to take the rankings that literally. They're more of a guide really, I think I equivocated with lines such as "if Burgo's mail is correct" where necessary.

You started this thread and have posted heavily on it, then you seem to dismiss it as worthless because it's only Burgan's guesses. I thought the point was that his guesses were educated.

The commentary I "read into this" is my opinion as it relates to his opinion, but I thought that was obvious, this being a forum for opinions.

I'm just saying that obviously what he says is not gospel, but its more educated than almost anyone else's opinion.

Its interesting to see that he thinks we might pass on Butcher at 11 AND 18, is it not?

Point is, he gives a rough guide to where he thinks Butcher might end up, so it may be an oversight that he has us passing him twice where we might reasonably take him, or it might be very deliberate.

I wasn't trying to take the [censored] out of your post, merely elaborating on it. In fact I quite liked your post.

Relax mate...

Edited October 20, 2009 by Keyser Söze

[furious d 447]

???

I'm just saying that obviously what he says is not gospel, but its more educated than almost anyone else's opinion.

Its interesting to see that he thinks we might pass on Butcher at 11 AND 18, is it not?

Point is, he gives a rough guide to where he thinks Butcher might end up, so it may be an oversight that he has us passing him twice where we might reasonably take him, or it might be very deliberate.

I wasn't trying to take the [censored] out of your post, merely elaborating on it. In fact I quite liked your post.

Relax FFS...

Sorry, my bad.

I really didn't take the rankings that literally, but I see what you mean. He's been very specific with how high some could slide to, like Lucas and Tapscott. I think that's probably more to do with the quality of his info regarding players. He may have got BP to admit that if Tapscott was still there at 18 he'd be too good for us to pass up no matter who's available. I think the others are rounded off more in an area he thinks they could slide to, top 20, top 25 etc.

Edit: I probably should clarify that. Any ranking that is a factor of 5 is probably more guesswork than solid info, with the exception of the 5 at the end of Morabito and Martin's ranking. All the others would be him either rounding up to the nearest 5 to open a ranking or down to the nearest 5 to close a ranking. I think Butcher and Carlisle genuinely have him stumpted

Edited October 20, 2009 by furious d

[Keyser Söze 0]

Sorry, my bad.

I really didn't take the rankings that literally, but I see what you mean. He's been very specific with how high some could slide to, like Lucas and Tapscott. I think that's probably more to do with the quality of his info regarding players. He may have got BP to admit that if Tapscott was still there at 18 he'd be too good for us to pass up no matter who's available. I think the others are rounded off more in an area he thinks they could slide to, top 20, top 25 etc.

No drama, we all do it.

Yeah, its possible 5-20 could just be a rough bracket, as he does tend to use round numbers like 15, 20, 25, 30 etc. but at the pointy end he has used some quite specific numbers.

Just interesting he's not done this with Butcher. I'm sure there's a few other little gems in there we could gleam if we try hard enough.

[furious d 447]

No drama, we all do it.

Yeah, its possible 5-20 could just be a rough bracket, as he does tend to use round numbers like 15, 20, 25, 30 etc. but at the pointy end he has used some quite specific numbers.

Just interesting he's not done this with Butcher. I'm sure there's a few other little gems in there we could gleam if we try hard enough.

see my edit. I was too slow

[Guest hangon007]

Burgo's done, so what can we mere mortals glean from the wash up.

According to Burgo:

Definite top 10 picks; Scully 1-2, Trengove 1-3, Martin 2-5, Morabito 2-5, Rohan 2-9 and Cunnington3-10

I think this shows we are considering all these blokes except Cunnington and keeping our options open till draft day, as we should. I think it'd take a minor miracle for us to not take Scully and Trengove though. These are the names we can put a line through for pick 11 if Burgo's mail is correct, anyone else is a possibility.

Possible top 10 picks; Jetta 4-20, Butcher 5-20, Carlisle 5-20, Lucas 6-14, Tapscott 6-18, Sheppard 7-20, Melksham 8-20, Moore 8-20, Talia 8-25, Taylor 8-25 and Vardy 8-25

11 names here, 4 will be gone before our 3rd pick It shows that Butcher is no longer in the elite bracket this draft and means he could fall to us. Carlisle is more versatile playing back and forward and could be preferred by a club with a top 10 pick looking for a KPP. Jetta, Lucas and Tapscott could make our decision at 11 very difficult if they're available. I'd probably take butcher ahead of them but I'm not sure on Carlisle, may be better to hope for Griffiths, Black, Panos or Craig at 18.

Possible top 20 picks; Christensen 10-25, Black 10-25, Bastinac 10-25, Griffiths 10-35, Fitzpatrick 10-35, Stevens 12-20, Gysberts 12-30, Crichton 12-30, Reid 12-45, Colyer 15-40, Duncan 15-40, McMillan-Pittard 15-35, Panos 15-rookie, Dare 15-late, and Craig 18-late

The first 5 names here are an outside chance of sneaking into the top 10 according to Burgo, but I think it's unlikely. If they do it increases our chances of someone more highly rated slipping to 11. I think this shows that Panos, Temel and Daw aren't worth pick 11 and that there will likely be better options available at 18 if we need to go tall with that pick. Also of note is Stevens ranking at 12-20, he's a lock for the bombers pick 10 in 90% of Phantom drafts and that is a narrow range for a late first round pick.

Very nice assessment of Burgo's educated thoughts .... I'd back his judgments 9/10 before I would listen to many of the opinions of posters on AFL forums.

[The Chazz 4,077]

I'm just saying that obviously what he says is not gospel, but its more educated than almost anyone else's opinion.

Its interesting to see that he thinks we might pass on Butcher at 11 AND 18, is it not?

Point is, he gives a rough guide to where he thinks Butcher might end up, so it may be an oversight that he has us passing him twice where we might reasonably take him, or it might be very deliberate.

I wasn't trying to take the [censored] out of your post, merely elaborating on it. In fact I quite liked your post.

Relax mate...

Not sure if I'm reading your posts incorrectly or not Keyser, and I apologise straight away if I have got the wrong idea of what you are saying, but...you do realise that Burgo doesn't give a toss on what Melbourne needs right? Just because he is saying that Butcher should go between 5-20 (or whatever it was), doesnt mean he thinks Melbourne 'will pass on Butcher twice at 11 & 18, he's just saying that he will be picked up in that range.

When he releases his phantom draft, he will give a more accurate description of his opinion as to where players will be picked up. I am pretty sure that if Butcher is still available at 18 (in the view of Burgo), then I would think that he will have Melbourne selecting him with that pick. The phantom draft will be done AFTER he has a look at EVERYONE'S list/needs, then will go back through his assessments of the players, and match up accordingly. Sorry to say it, but there are 15 other teams in the comp, and Burgo wrotes for the AFL, not the MFC.

[Keyser Söze 0]

Not sure if I'm reading your posts incorrectly or not Keyser, and I apologise straight away if I have got the wrong idea of what you are saying, but...you do realise that Burgo doesn't give a toss on what Melbourne needs right? Just because he is saying that Butcher should go between 5-20 (or whatever it was), doesnt mean he thinks Melbourne 'will pass on Butcher twice at 11 & 18, he's just saying that he will be picked up in that range.

When he releases his phantom draft, he will give a more accurate description of his opinion as to where players will be picked up. I am pretty sure that if Butcher is still available at 18 (in the view of Burgo), then I would think that he will have Melbourne selecting him with that pick. The phantom draft will be done AFTER he has a look at EVERYONE'S list/needs, then will go back through his assessments of the players, and match up accordingly. Sorry to say it, but there are 15 other teams in the comp, and Burgo wrotes for the AFL, not the MFC.

?

I'm taking a fair bit of license reading this far into it, and I hardly take it as a definite indicator; I'm merely suggesting its possible to read this much into it if you so desire.

But you think when Burgan does these ratings of where the individual players are likely to be picked, he doesn't take into account the teams that have those picks?

He is not rating him 5th-20th best out of the draftees available, he is rating where they are likely to fall in the draft order.

I think he is a thoughtful, considered draft analyst and he definitely would take into account the needs and wants of every club that has a pick in that range, MFC included.

The issue is whether he is sticking roughly to brackets of 5 picks, or whether he truly believes Butcher could slide to exactly pick 20.

Either way, I'm not going to lose sleep over it and I'm happy to just wait for his phantom draft to see what he really thinks.

[tess 19]

Burgo is dreaming if he thinks Alex Carey will still be available at pick 40.

[tess 19]

Not scoring in invite to the main camp is also a pretty good indication. I'm not saying they're crap, just that they're an outside chance and not worth wasting a top 40 pick on.

This is a stupid un-educated statement.

Many footballers have not attended draft camp and turned out to be very good AFL players. Some picked inside the top 40 others not.

Please don’t apply for a job as a recruiter for Melbourne.

[LITTLE STINGA 1]

1 - T.SCULLY

2 - J.TRENGOVE

3 - D.MARTIN

4 - A.MORABITO

5 - G.ROHAN

6 - B.CUNNINGTON

7 - L.JETTA

8 - J.BUTCHER

9 - J.CARLISLE

10 - K.LUCAS

11 - L.TAPSCOTT

12 - B.SHEPPARD

13 - J.MELKSHAM

14 - A.MOORE

15 - D.TALIA

16 - N.VARDY

17 - T.TAYLOR

18 - A.BLACK

19 - A.CHRISTENSEN

20 - R.BASTINAC

21 - B.GRIFFITHS

22 - J.FITZPATRICK

23 - K.STEVENS

24 - J.GYSBERTS

25 - J.CRITCHON

26 - D.MENZEL

27 - S.REID

28 - J.MCMILLAN-PITTARD

29 - T.COLYER

30 - M.DUNCAN

31 - J.DARE

32 - M.PANOS

33 - J.CRAIG

34 - J.COWAN

35 - A.DELBORALLO

36 - S.SHAW

37 - J.THOMAS

38 - M.GAWN

39 - N.FYFE

40 - D.ROBERTON

41 - T.HILL

42 - A.HOOPER

43 - R.HARWOOD

44 - D.ASTBURY

45 - M.DAVIES

46 - D.GRIMES

47 - C.BARTLETT

48 - A.LONG

49 - M.SCOTT

50 - G.WEEDON

[The Backyard Charizard 1,178]

So many opinions..... So long to wait to find out the result....

This is doing my head in.....

I really want to know who we are going to select at 11 and 18 :D

[old55 21,847]

Emma Quayle interview on BigFooty:

http://bigfooty.com/forum/blog.php?b=783

[beelzebub 22,707]

Emma Quayle interview on BigFooty:

http://bigfooty.com/forum/blog.php?b=783

Thanks for the heads up there old' was an interesting read. No great surprises though. Her thinking regards the bunching of picks is very apt. It must server to juggle the order a bit.