RIPE FOR THE PICKING by JVM

No AFL team has ever comfortably fitted into the national capital and I don't really have an explanation for this other than to speculate that a city full of politicians, career diplomats and bureaucrats is never going to ignite passion for the game. Years ago, our brand of football reigned in Canberra. It even produced a true champion in Alex Jesaulenko. Then Rugby League took the initiative with the Canberra Raiders and our game took a back seat.

The AFL briefly experimented with Fitzroy which was already in its death throes, followed by the Kangaroos, the Bulldogs and finally the Demons. There's an obvious common thread there and the guarantee of $300k for a struggling club is very tempting even if the powers that be throw in the strong Sydney Swans from up the road to draw in a crowd. Now the AFL is said to be considering a different tack by including the capital as part of the power base for the new club playing out of West Sydney.

In recent years, the prospect of hosting Sydney at Manuka has spoiled the party for the supposed "home side". Melbourne has been thrashed in both of its fixtures against Paul Roos' team, the past four encounters have seen the Swans win by an average of 42 points and, until recently, popular opinion suggested a threepeat was very much on the cards. The Demons haven't been all that flash on the road either having lost their last 18 games interstate since beating the Lions in the halcyon days of 2006 (round 14).

But Sydney ain't Sydney any more. The Swans are on the decline and even the "home" ground advantage of a game at the nearby national capital is no longer what it used to be. They were thrashed there earlier in the season by the Doggies. They've lost their goal kicking machine - the man who threw fear (and the odd cut lunch) into opposition defenders, old Micky O is retiring and has lost it anyway and injuries are starting to kick in. Roos was once able to command control of games tactically but he no longer has the cattle. This time, the Swans are ripe for the picking.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Sydney at the Manuka Oval Sunday 26 July 2009 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 91 wins Sydney 108 wins 1 draw

At Manuka Melbourne 0 wins Sydney 2 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 6 wins Sydney 11 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 Roos 1

MEDIA

TV Fox Footy Channel at 1 pm (live)

RADIO ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Melbourne to win $2.40 - Sydney to win $1.53

LAST TIME THEY MET Sydney Swans 17.12.114 defeated Melbourne 11.8.74 at Manuka in Round 13, 2008

The Swans, with Barry Hall running rampant, got the early jump on the Dees and led by around five goals at each of the first two breaks. Matthew Bate and Austin Wonaeamirri put Melbourne back in the game in the third term and the deficit at three quarter time was pared back to 17 points before the Swans, mainly through Hall (5 goals) and Kirk too control. Bate finished with four goals and was Melbourne's best

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Lynden Dunn Matthew Warnock Matthew Whelan

Half backs Brent Moloney Jared Rivers Cameron Bruce

Centreline Clint Bartram James McDonald Aaron Davey

Half forwards Jamie Bennell Michael Newton Cale Morton

Forwards Brad Miller Matthew Bate Liam Jurrah

Followers Stefan Martin Ricky Petterd Nathan Jones

Interchange Kyle Cheney Paul Johnson Jordie McKenzie Shane Valenti

Emergencies Rohan Bail Simon Buckley Jake Spencer

In Kyle Cheney Paul Johnson Jordie McKenzie Brad Miller Michael Newton Shane Valenti Matthew Whelan

Out Jack Grimes (back) James Frawley (back) Brad Green (scaphoid) Mark Jamar (quad) Neville Jetta (flu) Brock McLean (knee) Russell Robertson

New Jordie McKenzie (Geelong Falcons)

SYDNEY

Backs Ed Barlow Lewis Roberts-Thomson Craig Bolton

Half backs Rhyce Shaw Heath Grundy Martin Mattner

Centreline Nick Smith Brett Kirk Jarrad McVeigh

Half forwards Ryan O'Keefe Adam Goodes Luke Ablett

Forwards Jesse White Michael O'Loughlin Daniel Hannebery

Followers Darren Jolly Kieran Jack Jude Bolton

Interchange Amon Buchanan Jarred Moore Michael Pyke Kristin Thornton

Emergencies Paul Bevan Craig Bird Patrick Veszpremi

In Amon Buchanan Jarred Moore Michael Pyke Kristin Thornton

Out Paul Bevan Craig Bird Ted Richards (chest) Patrick Veszpremi

SWAN SONG

There is a school of thought which maintains that Sydney can still make the finals but those who hold this view must have been on vacation and missed the last quarter of their game at Etihad Stadium last week when Carlton turned a 9 point lead into a 61 point mauling.

By way of contrast, the Demons' form against Geelong at Skilled Stadium was quite reasonable. It's true that they also had their one bad quarter when the Cats had the advantage of the wind when it was at its strongest but the Dees never capitulated like the Swans. This week they will relish a return to a game where the opposition pressure will be far less intense.

Much will depend on the battle in the midfield and upon the Demons' ability to contain Adam Goodes. The Brownlow Medallist doesn't really appreciate close checking and Lynden Dunn is just the man to match up on him. He has been known to harass and annoy the living suitcases out of opposition playmakers. He can run with them and get his own ball as well.

Melbourne has been hit hard by the injury and in particular to ruckman Mark Jamar, a big improver since returning to the side, but Paul Johnson has been killing them at Casey and should prove an adequate replacement. Together with Stef Martin, he should overcome Darren Jolly and give midfielders like the in form Brent Moloney, the run machine of Aaron Davey, hardnosed Nathan Jones and skipper James McDonald a platform with which to set up a win. The experience of Cam Bruce who is in good form should help tip the scales in favour of their team.

The Demon defence led by Matty Warnock, James Frawley and Jared Rivers will greatly appreciate the absence of a huge power forward in the opposition line up and frankly, I can't see where the Swans can kick a winning score.

Nor can I see the Swans' depleted backline in the absence of Ted Richards stopping the Melbourne forward line. Who do they have to curb the magical talents of the Warlpiri Wizard? And watch out for Brad Miller and Michael Newton who have been biding their time kicking goals and regaining their confidence at Casey.

The Demons have been down for far too long. Against a team that is on its last legs and looking down the barrel of a number of barren years they should finally break their Manuka hoodoo.

Melbourne by 27 points.

So you really think the Swans will get that close, do you?

I don't mind this week's forward line. It has some height and marking power as well as the X factor with Jurrah and Bennell. Could be an absolute surprise packet on Sunday.

I don't mind this week's forward line. It has some height and marking power as well as the X factor with Jurrah and Bennell. Could be an absolute surprise packet on Sunday.

A good tactic by Bailey, stretching the Swans weakened backline that already lacks height except for Roberts-Thompson. Hopefully Miller and Newton can actually provide something this week.

The game will be won or lost in the midfield, the Swans are sensational at the stoppages, where we are not and with Jamar and Brock out this week, I don't like our chances. The Swans will rely on kicking goals from the midfield due to their dilapidated forward line, so shutting down Goodes and Kirk are crucial to winning this match.

Goodes, Kirk and O'Keefe could beat that MFC side on their own.

Sydney by 40.

The game will be won or lost in the midfield, the Swans are sensational at the stoppages, where we are not and with Jamar and Brock out this week, I don't like our chances. The Swans will rely on kicking goals from the midfield due to their dilapidated forward line, so shutting down Goodes and Kirk are crucial to winning this match.

No tags on Goodes and Kirk.

BTW, I saw in the Green Guide that the game is being replayed on Sunday night at 10.30pm on Ch 7. Do they often do that with interstate games that are only shown on Foxtel live?

2 inclusions for the game featuring Melbourne, Bail and Pyke.

Great Stuff.

Go Dees.... B)

2 inclusions for the game featuring Melbourne, Bail and Pyke.

Great Stuff.

Goodes, Kirk and O'Keefe could beat that MFC side on their own.

Sydney by 40.

Fantasyland!

Goodes, Kirk and O'Keefe could beat that MFC side on their own.

Sydney by 40.

no team is tanking we will beat swans eagles will beat fremantle fremantle are so bad that they cant win another game Sydney are finished as a side they are at the same stage as dees where in 2007, too many old frats at the club and a few injuries. they have to play all of there youngster to see who can cut it or not there best 5 player are all over 30 and few of then are finished already. so there is no way a team will get a first round pp, only a second pp which is fremantle, we will beat swans and fremantle at the mcg, the dees don't tank Carlton do hawks do but the dees are to stupid to tank we had our chance in 2007 to make sure we would win less then 4 games but we beat the dogs and Carlton in the second half of that year, and won 5 games we should of got the pp last year, we would of got watts and nat, but not to be . we can build momentum for next year, win 3 or 4 more games and charge up the ladder next year, there are more ways to improve the list then just high drift picks , players on your list can always get better we have 6 player who can step up bigg time next year, the wizard,bate,Dunn,watt,garland,grimes,Jones.

.... and breathe. Phew.

Here just for you, for next time: ....................................................................

No tags on Goodes and Kirk.

People tag Kirk?

no team is tanking we will beat swans eagles will beat fremantle fremantle are so bad that they cant win another game Sydney are finished as a side they are at the same stage as dees where in 2007, too many old frats at the club and a few injuries. they have to play all of there youngster to see who can cut it or not there best 5 player are all over 30 and few of then are finished already. so there is no way a team will get a first round pp, only a second pp which is fremantle, we will beat swans and fremantle at the mcg, the dees don't tank Carlton do hawks do but the dees are to stupid to tank we had our chance in 2007 to make sure we would win less then 4 games but we beat the dogs and Carlton in the second half of that year, and won 5 games we should of got the pp last year, we would of got watts and nat, but not to be . we can build momentum for next year, win 3 or 4 more games and charge up the ladder next year, there are more ways to improve the list then just high drift picks , players on your list can always get better we have 6 player who can step up bigg time next year, the wizard,bate,Dunn,watt,garland,grimes,Jones.

Ever Heard of the word PUNCTUATION?? There is a reason it was invented (See above)....Use it. Oh & i don't agree with your arguements either.

Winning cheap end of season games will only slow down our progress for 2010

Ever Heard of the word PUNCTUATION?? There is a reason it was invented (See above)....Use it. Oh & i don't agree with your arguements either.

Winning cheap end of season games will only slow down our progress for 2010

go easy WYL,,have you read paul roos articule on the afl website good read mate.

Now I know why there's 8 votes in the "do you want to win more than 5 games ?" in the other poll.

Now I know why there's 8 votes in the "do you want to win more than 5 games ?" in the other poll.

Indeed.

go easy WYL,,have you read paul roos articule on the afl website good read mate.

I read it, & i agree. Paul Roos is a smart man, who knows he has a long hard job to get back to September action.

Bailey is doing just Fine.

Bailey is doing just Fine.

Yeah, agree. He's shown a lot of sense with this week's selections. Not afraid to cop the inevitable snide journo's insinuations.

Well its more than likely to be a cold wet day at Manuka sunday with probable winds. Should Melb lose the toss Roos wil have instructed which way to kick and that wil be the end of it. If Melb win the toss they might have some sort of closish game. I cant see our inexperience matching Sydneys experience esp at this ground.

Sydney by 23 points ( and that suits me just fine )

Melbourne by 27 points.

That would be a worse case scenario result, if ever i saw one. The Swannettes can have this cheap dead Rubber.

Bring on 2010.

no team is tanking we will beat swans eagles will beat fremantle fremantle are so bad that they cant win another game Sydney are finished as a side they are at the same stage as dees where in 2007, too many old frats at the club and a few injuries. they have to play all of there youngster to see who can cut it or not there best 5 player are all over 30 and few of then are finished already. so there is no way a team will get a first round pp, only a second pp which is fremantle, we will beat swans and fremantle at the mcg, the dees don't tank Carlton do hawks do but the dees are to stupid to tank we had our chance in 2007 to make sure we would win less then 4 games but we beat the dogs and Carlton in the second half of that year, and won 5 games we should of got the pp last year, we would of got watts and nat, but not to be . we can build momentum for next year, win 3 or 4 more games and charge up the ladder next year, there are more ways to improve the list then just high drift picks , players on your list can always get better we have 6 player who can step up bigg time next year, the wizard,bate,Dunn,watt,garland,grimes,Jones.

All that in three sentences... wow

I read it, & i agree. Paul Roos is a smart man, who knows he has a long hard job to get back to September action.

Bailey is doing just Fine.

I agree, but not in the way that I think you mean it. He's done much too good a job at the difficult and painstaking task of player development over the past two seasons to want to throw it away with the most ham-fisted and incompetent attempt at tanking imaginable.

If this is what you pro-tankers mean by what we need to do to tank, you're kidding yourselves. If we're trying to tank, I can't believe we'd be so ridiculously lousy at it.

I would say that every one of those "outs" would have to be genuine (and therefore we're not tanking), because if they aren't genuine, we're in deep skite.

Prediction: Sydney by 7 points, after leading at quarter-time by 6 goals, the Demons win the last three quarters but fall just short.

Would make for an interesting, heart-in-the-mouth type encounter to say the least.

Now I know why there's 8 votes in the "do you want to win more than 5 games ?" in the other poll.

And I now why vincehotboy is 'bleeding red and blue'...

He's got a massive headwound...