The Curse of the Rising Star Nomination

[Yencks 8]

I for one am glad that all of our youngsters are being overlooked for rising star nomination this year. Chances are, players are cursed when they get this award at Melbourne...

2004:

Round 1: Aaron Davey - he hasn't been too ravaged by injury comparatively, but he hasn't had an easy ride by no means

Round 3: Jared Rivers - don't even need to bother explaining this one

2005:

Round 3: Brock McLean - he has had a shocker of a run, more so than some people realise. The reason he looks so slow this year is because he has not been able to do a full pre-season for a couple of years now

Round 9: Colin Sylvia - a man ravaged with injury related problems throughout his career

2006:

Round 7: Clint Bartram - the poor kid had to miss a finals series and an entire season

Round 18: Mathew Bate - hasn't had it too badly

Round 20: Nathan Jones - same as Bate

2007:

Round 6: Ricky Petterd - got a punctured lung and then almost missed an entire season

Round 17: Nathan Jones again

2008:

Round 7: Austin Wonaeamirri - don't get me started

Round 14: Colin Garland - see above

Round 20: Cale Morton - seems to have missed the boat so far (touch wood)

So out of the 11 players above, 5 of them (Rivers, Bartram, Petterd, Garland, Wonaemirri) have had their short careers absolutely dominated by injuries and 3 of them (Mclean, Sylvia, Davey) have had it a very very tough run by anyones standards.

That leaves just 3 (Bate, Jones, Morton) out of 11 that seem to have avoided the curse thus far. Those are not good statistics...please can all of our players avoid the curse this year and not get a nomination

[deanox 9,921]

very interesting analysis NJ, but maybe not for the reasons you've put forward.

Have you considered that part of the reason we are struggling now is because of the hampered development of a number of our standout youngsters over the past 5 years?

When Malthouse commented the other week that the average collingwood player was younger than the average melbourne player in that match it got me looking through data. He was right, the collingwood players were on average 1 month younger, however on average, the collingwood players had 11 more games of experience each (is interesting that they had an average of 2.5 kg extra per player, but only .5cm per player extra height, suggesting greater physical or development).

[Yencks 8]

very interesting analysis NJ, but maybe not for the reasons you've put forward.

Have you considered that part of the reason we are struggling now is because of the hampered development of a number of our standout youngsters over the past 5 years?

When Malthouse commented the other week that the average collingwood player was younger than the average melbourne player in that match it got me looking through data. He was right, the collingwood players were on average 1 month younger, however on average, the collingwood players had 11 more games of experience each (is interesting that they had an average of 2.5 kg extra per player, but only .5cm per player extra height, suggesting greater physical or development).

I am not suggesting anything other than players at melbourne who receieve the rising star are cursed...

In response to your comments, I agree with you. However, the reason I think the Malthouse's logic is flawed is because we have a very top heavy list. For instance: Robbo, Bruce, Whelan, Bell did not play a part in the game against the pies; whereas we could have played Martin, Bennell, Jurrah and Dunn which would have brought our average age below collingwoods without affecting the result in a major way.

Median age is a more appropriate measure than average age, and without doing the hard work, I would argue that our median age is a bit lower than collingwoods.

[deanox 9,921]

i think you'll find their median age lower than ours (the wholes lists, not the teams for that day) us 22 yrs, theres 21 8 months.

however, they have 10 players over 27, to our 6.

and 12 over 26 to our 7.

It is not strange that we struggle to win games when you consider our 7 over 26 compared to their 12:

McDonald, Robertson, Bruce, Whelan, Green, Wheatley, Miller,

Rocca, Prestigiacomo, O'Bree, Lockyer, Johnson, Davis, Medhurst, Fraser, Brown, Bryan

OK not all of the collingwood players are getting games ever week, but the quality of their seniors players overall is much better than ours.

Bruce, Green Mcdonald and Robbo are the only who contribute of our lot. Bruce is wasted possessions galore, Robbo is not a leader and sets a poor example for the younger players, and McDonald is past his prime, and while he has been a great servant was never an A grade player. Green, at the moment, is the only on our list that stands out.

[deanox 9,921]

But I digress, I think your stats are fantastic, but what they show is that our youngsters have missed significant development.

Add players like blease and grimes, and the list extends further.

[Yencks 8]

i agree with you about the development stuff but i think you have missed what was supposed to be the point of this thread.

It was meant to be tongue in cheek in that most of our players that receive a rising star nominaition mysteriously get injured soon after, hence the award is a curse.

but yes, that is silly...i just thought that it was interesting considering both garland and wonna are out and they won it last year and then i realised that the same thing happenned to rivers, petterd and bartram after they won it also.

[deanox 9,921]

no i realised it was tongue in cheek NJ!

very interesting analysis NJ, but maybe not for the reasons you've put forward.

i'm not so sure about the curse, but the analysis showed something I hadn't really considered before. I think you accidentally did some great research!

[Yencks 8]

no i realised it was tongue in cheek NJ!

i'm not so sure about the curse, but the analysis showed something I hadn't really considered before. I think you accidentally did some great research!

haha...well if that's the case, then it was unintentional

[H_T 3,047]

Based on your research NJ, I dearly hope Grimes doesn't fall under the curse if nominated.

[Rogue 585]

i agree with you about the development stuff but i think you have missed what was supposed to be the point of this thread.

...and instead, he turned it into something beautiful!

Nice post(s) deanox.

[deanox 9,921]

In exams, I know I don't have the time to do it now, but I would be interested to see number of games played (missed) since debut for rising star nominees from all clubs for the above years. It would be hard to rule out omittance due to form, but it would be interesting to see if our players have missed a disproportionate number of matches compared to other clubs rising youngsters.

[Jaded No More 68,915]

The Rising Start Award is a joke.

I mean come on, Aaron Joseph gets a nomination this week ahead of Ward who got like 30 plus disposals (and has been really good all year), and Grimes.

[deanox 9,921]

jaded, that doesn't affect what we have observed in regards to a number of our promising young players being injured and set back by significant injuries.

[Rogue 585]

That'd be an interesting analysis, deanox. Exams must be finishing soon...

and Grimes.

IMO doesn't warrant one on the back of Fri night's performance.

[45HG 1,539]

Who's the latest nominated player to win the Rising Star? (As in latest round in the season)

[Jaded No More 68,915]

IMO doesn't warrant one on the back of Fri night's performance.

I don't think Grimes deserved it based on last round either, however, Joseph has played twice the number of games Grimes has this year (6 vs. 12), and here are their stats:

Disposal Av. Per Game:

Grimes: 19.3

Joseph: 11.4

Mark Av. Per Game:

Grimes: 6.8

Joseph: 1.9

Both have kicked a goal, and Joseph is ahead in tackles by a significant margin.

Ward also averages less disposals and marks than Grimes, but has kicked 7 goals in 9 matches.

I realise Joseph is a tagger, so his primary job is to shut down an opponent, but he is certainly not more deserving of a nomination than Ward or Grimes

FinalSiren stats actually show that Grimes is #16 overall amongst the 'Rising Stars' (link)

(sorry for hijacking this thread with Rising Star talk that is not related to injuries <_< )

[dazzledavey36 54,939]

The Rising Start Award is a joke.

I mean come on, Aaron Joseph gets a nomination this week ahead of Ward who got like 30 plus disposals (and has been really good all year), and Grimes.

whats an Aaron Joseph??

[deanox 9,921]

That'd be an interesting analysis, deanox. Exams must be finishing soon...

IMO doesn't warrant one on the back of Fri night's performance.

exams finish Friday, I leave for Europe on Saturday. It would be great reading from London if you can get around to it.

[Rogue 585]

Haha, touche.

I realise Joseph is a tagger, so his primary job is to shut down an opponent

...after you gave marks and disposals as your main argument for Grimes being more deserving?

Exam period has clearly fried your brain