Best case, worst case and most likely scenarios for each player

[two sheds jackson 3]

Based on what we've seen in the first half of the year, I thought it might be interesting to start a thread looking briefly at each player on the list, and speculating on the best, worst and most likely scenarios for how they finish the season. In other words, we're looking at what we HOPE they might realistically achieve, what their WORST realistic outcome for the year could be and where they will MOST LIKELY be by the end of the year.

Two rules:

* Be realistic. Dont make a post saying that the best case scenario for Benny Holland is to suddenly establish himself as the next Jonathan Brown and play for another ten years. You have to say what you genuinely think the player can achieve if they get the absolute best out of themself.

* Obviously the worst thing that can realistically happen to a professional athelete is a long term injury, so dont put that as a worst case scenario. We're not talking about a terrible unforseen occurance, we're talking about what could be the worst case scenario for each player based on what we know about them.

Clint Bartram:

Best Case Scenario: Gets back to playing the sort of footy he was playing in his debut year. Becomes a likely replacement for James McDonald.

Worst Case Scenario: Continues as is. Becomes a likely replacement for Simon Godfrey.

Most Likely Scenario: I have every confidence he'll get back to '06 form, but its going to take him a while, and he might need the odd spell at Sandy. His development was greatly offset by missing an entire year of footy, but anyone who saw him in his debut year knows he can go- will never be the best player in a team, but he's the type of player every team needs. Fair to say he wont be as good as JMac, but he could play the same role competently.

Matthew Bate:

Best Case Scenario: Plays consistently good footy at CHF/HFF, with a few absolute blinders. Convinces everyone he will be gun forward, leaves us salivating in anticipation for what he will do next year.

Worst Case Scenario: Teases us with the odd good game but plays just as many ordinary ones- defenders start to take advantages of his lack of pace, running off him and rebounding out of our forwardline with ease. Doesnt really establish himself in any position.

Most Likely Scenario: Dont know why, but Ive got a feeling that by the end of the year, Bate will be the one we're most exited about going into next year. I genuinely think that my best case scenario for Bate is probably the most likely one as well.

Daniel Bell:

Best Case Scenario: Gets back to last years form. While its clear to everyone he'll never be brilliant, he becomes a "good ordinary player", and a valuable negating small defender.

Worst Case Scenario: Continues as is. Becomes a depth player or gets traded.

Most Likely Scenario: I think this is going to be a dog of a year for Bell, and that next year will probably be the acid test; it'll be up to him to prove which Daniel Bell was the "real one"; the tenacious negating defender we saw in 07 or the fish out of water we've seen in 08. I honestly dont know what will come of him.

Jace Bode:

Best Case Scenario: Takes advantages of the Melbournes lack of good rebounding defenders and finds a regular place in the team.

Worst Case Scenario: Continues as is. Delisted.

Most Likely Scenario: Dont see him doing anything between now and seasons end to prove he can make it at AFL level.

Cameron Bruce:

Best Case Scenario: Steps up as an on-field leader and finishes the year by playing consistently good football, as opposed to the odd great game (getting fewer and further between), the odd shocker and alot of very mediocre games.

Worst Case Scenario: I cant really see him going backwards- not saying he's playing terrible football and has nowhere to go but up, I just dont see Cameron Bruce suddenly going drastically downhill this year. As a worst case scenario, he'll continue as is without improving.

Most Likely Scenario: As stated, I dont see him going backwards, but Im not holding my breath waiting for him to start showing genuine on-field leadership or playing consistently good football either. I fear the worst case scenario is probably the most likely one for Bruce; his current form this year will more or less continue, throughout this year and the rest of his career. His trade value shouldnt go down too much, so unless the coaching staff think he's good for the younger players developement I hope we try to trade him for a late second-round pick. He wont be part of our next premiership.

Simon Buckley:

Best Case Scenario: Works very hard at overcoming the present flaws in his game (decision making especially) and, by the end of the year, become a borderline best-22 type.

Worst Case Scenario: Doesnt improve. Ends up a handy depth player at best.

Most Likely Scenario: Wouldnt like to say at this point. He'll play the odd game for sure, but whether he shows by the end of the year that he's best 22 or not, who knows. I think in two years time he could be anything: he has some obvious attributes which could make him a very handy component of a top-4 team, but also some glaring deficiencies which -if he cant remedy- will stop him from making it at AFL level.

Nathan Carrol:

Best Case Scenario: Gets back in the team towards end of year if we're giving some of the youngens a break. Plays some good stopping games on some of the leagues best key forwards, acquiring some market value. We find the best possible trade we can for him and we run with it; even if it looks like we're getting the short end of the stick, a late draft pick MIGHT be a part of our future, Carrol WONT be, and by all reports is not the type of character you want around developing 18 year olds.

Worst Case Scenario: Doesnt get another game, tapers off at Sandy due to lack of motivation, loses all currency in the trade period.

Most Likely Scenario: Id say he has a few years left of AFL football and he knows it. Will probably keep monstoring young opposition forwards at Sandy and get a few games towards the end of the year, and we'll probably try to trade him again at years end. Again, I dont really care that much if we get short-changed a bit; not that I think he's a bad footballer, but I do think he's more of a hindrence to our list than a help at this stage.

Aaron Davey:

Best Case Scenario: Comes back and continues the form he was in for those few weeks before his injury. Establishes himself as a possible permanent wingman.

Worst Case Scenario: Comes back, but plays the sort of inconsistent football he was playing earlier in the year (and for most of his career to date). Gets sent back to the forwardline out of necessity, because he fails to really impose himself in the midfield. More or less confirms that he will never be anything more than a flashy but inconsistent opportunistic small forward.

Most Likely Scenario: I think he will get back to his pre-injury form, but that it might take him a few weeks to build up to it. I cant really remember him coming back from injury and imposing himself on the game for four quarters in his first match back. The jury will probably still be out on whether the Davey experiment in the midfield is a winner or not, even by seasons end.

Lynden Dunn:

Best Case Scenario: Continues to play well in a tagging role. Given a few games to find his own footy or play as a CHF/HFF in the final rounds of the season, and shows that he has learnt from the experience. Becomes a very exciting prospect for next year.

Worst Case Scenario: Gets smashed by his direct opponent a few times and starts to lose confidence. Ends up a regular at Sandy again by the end of the year.

Most Likely Scenario: At this stage, probably 50/50 either way, and with a slight possibility that he might simply continue to play as a tagger for the rest of the year without being given a chance to get his own ball or play as a forward for a full game. He definately has the ability to learn alot from playing as a tagger and establishing himself by years end, but he could just as easily have a few bad games and lose his way.

James Frawley:

Best Case Scenario: Comes back through Sandy, gets a few games there so that he can prove to himself that he's a ring or two above that level. On return to AFL, gets a few games on the oppositions second or third best forward, to build up his confidence a bit more (obviously if a matchup isnt working and it makes sense to swap him onto the best opposition forward midgame then fine, but as a general plan of attack), gets a crack at FB by years end and holds himself well.

Worst Case Scenario: Continues as is. Is not a definite best 22 at the start of next year.

Most Likely Scenario: Will learn a bit with each game. There might not be obvious signs of major improvement by the end of the year but I dont think it's cause for alarm- he'll develop at his own pace, will get smashed plenty of times, particularly against the top forwards but theres no better way to learn. Will be a player in years to come.

Colin Garland:

Best Case Scenario: Continues to improve with each game. Establishes himself as a definite starting key defender by the end of the year.

Worst Case Scenario: Hard to say. I guess someone could kick a bag on him and he could lose a bit of confidence from it, but unless that sets off a really bad patch of form and he ends up a regular at Sandy again, it wont hurt him to be beaten every now and then.

Most Likely Scenario: Again, for Garland I think the best case scenario is also the most likely one.

Brad Green:

Best Case Scenario: Keeps doing what he's doing, more or less. Captain next year, and the main leader at the club during the all-important rebuilding phase of the next few years. He wants it, he deserves it, and he's perfect for it.

Worst Case Scenario: Tapers off and plays the inconsistent, front-running footy he was playing a few years ago. Does not get named in the leadership group next year. Possibly traded.

Most Likely Scenario: Will probably keep going as is. Hard to say if he'll be captain next year, but he should be in the leadership group for sure. As a sidenote, I hope like hell that Bailey's letting the players choose the leadership group last year was not a permanent thing, but decided to do it as a once off in his first year because he didnt know players personally at the time, so didnt feel up to chosing the leaders himself. Sure, the coach should consult the players, but he should ultimately pick the leadership group himself.

Ben Holland:

Best Case Scenario: Gets a farewell game (or a couple of games in a row, injury permitting). Kicks a bag of four. Retires at years end, looked back on fondly by all.

Worst Case Scenario: Know I made a rule against putting unforseen injuries as a worst case scenario, but in this case I cant really think of anything terrible happening unless its an unforseen injury that costs him his farewell game. Should get one in a year when we're not competing for a finals spot.

Most Likely Scenario: Again, best case scenario is probably the most likely one.

Mark Jamar:

Best case scenario: Wont realistically improve. Best case scenario is that Meesen kicks on or PJ establishes himself in the ruck so that we dont need him next year.

Worst case scenario: Ruck situation continues as is.

Most likely scenario: Worst case scenario seems to be the most likely one, unfortunately.

Chris Johnson:

Best Case Scenario: Draws some real confidence from his form at Sandringham and, feeling like he finally belongs at AFL level, spends the rest of the year forging a spot in the best 22 (either as a line breaking wingman or a rebounding defender, both of which we desperately need).

Worst Case Scenario: Comes back, looks lost, gets sent back to Sandringham. Traded/delisted at the end of the year.

Most Likely Scenario: The worst case scenario seems more likely than the first one, but sometimes its hard to understand why. I cant point to one physical attribute that should preclude CJ from playing at AFL level, but every time he gets on the field he looks completely lost.

Paul Johnson:

Best Case Scenario:

Continues as is, ends up as basically a somewhat better version of Ben Holland; can play in defence, ruck or the forwardline and do a competent job.

Worst Case Scenario: Somehow starts to go backwards as a 3rd tall in defense, doesnt improve at all in the hitouts, and proves impotent in the forwardline.

Most Likely Scenario: PJ has been one of the few positives in a dull year, for mine, and I cant see any reason why he has anywhere to go but up. I dont think he'll ever be the answer to our ruck woes, which is a massive concern, but he's definately a part of our future.

Nathan Jones:

Best Case Scenario: Continues what he's doing, but working hard to improve his decision making.

Worst Case Scenario: Cant really think of one at the moment, I dont think we have much cause for concern with Jones.

James McDonald:

Best Case Scenario: Continues to play consistently solid football, plays on next year.

Worst Case Scenario: Dont see him being drastically worse in the second half of the year. Worst case scenario is that he announces that this year will be his last.

Most Likely Scenario: I really have no idea, heres hoping he plays on next year. With our present dearth of genuine leaders, he's a valuable commodity.

Brock Mclean:

Best Case Scenario: Continues to improve steadily. Becomes harder to shut down and has some good games agaist the Lings and Kirks of the league. Continues to mature as a person and as a footballer and becomes a bonafide leader. Made a stand-alone vice captain, if not captain, next year.

Worst Case Scenario: Tapers off, playing the odd good game but normally being shut down like he was for most of last year. Off-field stupidity continues. Confirms that -while he'll be a decent player- he wont improve drastically from here on. Not part of next years leadership group.

Most Likely Scenario: Probably somewhere in the middle. I think he will keep improving and will become harder to tag out of a game, but he wont be a bonifide superstar like alot of us hoped he would a few years back. Would be silly to speculate whether the off-field stuff will continue or not without knowing him personally, but the things he has done doesnt make him that much different to alot of other 21 year old footballers. Will be part of the leadership group next year, but probably wont quite be ready for captaincy.

Brad Miller:

Best Case Scenario: Continues presenting hard at CHF and proves that -while he'll never be a superstar- he'll be a solid player and a shining example on-field.

Worst Case Scenario: Loses his way again. Delisted/traded or reduced to a depth player at the end of the year.

Most Likely Scenario: Fingers crossed, I think Miller's finally come into his own and wont look back from here. I'm confident the best case scenario will prevail.

Cale Morton:

Best Case Scenario: Plays every game this year. While he'll definately have a few quiet ones (as he has the past few weeks) hopefully he plays a few blinders to remind us why we were all so excited about him earlier in the year.

Worst Case Scenario: Goes a bit quiet for the rest of the year. Spends the end of the year back at Sandy. If it happened, much as I hope it doesnt, it would be understandable from a first year player whos body isnt ready for AFL football.

Best Case Scenario: Cant see any reason why he wont continue to impress- he's been quiet lately, but he'll bounce back.

Michael Newton:

Best Case Scenario: Recovers from injury and comes back through Sandy ASAP. Absolutely dominates, kicking a bunch of goals and proving he's too good for VFL level. Spends a good chunk of the second year playing full forward for Melbourne. Works very hard to overcome his limitations re: pace and skills at ground level. By the end of the year, establishes himself as a definite AFL player, and a possible replacement for Neitz at full forward.

Worst Case Scenario: Either doesnt recover from injury, or comes back and validates the concerns that he doesn have the application to be an AFL footballer. Delisted or traded (for peanuts) at years end.

Most Likely Scenario: He should be back in a few weeks, and hopefully press for senior selection. Beyond that, its pretty difficult to say at this point what will happen.

Ricky Petterd:

Best Case Scenario: Comes back in a few weeks time. Plays the last 8 rounds or so. Starts slow, but -by years end- gets back to last years form. Is ready for a huge preseason and a big year next year.

Worst Case Scenario: More or less misses the year. Struggles to readjust next year in much the same way Bartram has this year.

Most Likely Scenario: Will hopefully be back in a few weeks. I dont think he'll set the world on fire, but the more games we can get into him before next year, the better.

Jared Rivers:

Best Case Scenario: Comes back soon. No more injuries between now and the end of the year.

Worst Case Scenario: Continues to struggle with injuries. Becomes such a worry that the club looks at trading him.

Most Likely Scenario: Ive given up predicting what will happen to Rivers. I hope he can get his body right, but its getting to the stage where I cant even physically envision Rivers playing an uninterrupted 12 games, let alone an uninterrupted season.

Colin Sylvia:

Best Case Scenario: Stays in the forwardline, and shows the same drive he showed in the Queens Birthday game, in every game for the rest of the year. Improves his kicking, and developes into a very, very good medium forward. Failing that, returns to the backline and resumes being a solid contributer.

Worst Case Scenario: Continues to tease us with the odd good game amidst plenty of ordinary games, without ever playing a really *great* game.

Most Likely Scenario: I've been moderately impressed with him this year in the backline, but I think they should and will leave him in the forwardline with the occasional run on the ball. Will never be a superstar, but by years end most people will at least consider him a good player.

Shane Valenti:

Best Case Scenario: Takes Beamers spot in the team for the rest of the year. Overcomes his obvious deficiencies re: pace and size with his skills in stoppages, establishes himself as a solid contributer for years to come.

Worst Case Scenario: Doesnt overcome his deficiencies; proves too small and slow to make it as an AFL footballer.

Most Likely Scenario: From what I have seen (admittedly not much; I dont see as much of Sandy as I like and he's had limited game time when he's played for the Dees) he seems to have the talent to make it at AFL level- only problem he faces is that tough, in-and-under midfielders are probably the one thing we have a wealth of, so it might be tough for him to find a place in the side, especially with Grimes coming in, who, by all reports, is very much a tough, in-and-under midfielder.

Matthew Warnock:

Best Case Scenario: Continues current form, cant ask much more.

Worst Case Scenario: Warnock kind of flies in the face of my "be realistic" rule, because I dont think anyone realistically expected him to emerge as a possible KPD. The worst case scenario, I guess, is that his recent form -which nobody saw coming- turns out to be some kind of fluke, and he ends up tapering off and playing the same way he was at the start of the year.

Most Likely Scenario: Its very hard to imagine Warnock not playing the rest of the year in red and blue- a terrific achievement for someone who was regarded by many -myself included- as an automatic delisting at the end of the year. Who knows where he will go beyond that; Im not ready to mark him down as a definite 200 gamer just yet, but if he can build on his recent form he wont do his prospects any harm.

Isaac Weetra:

Best, worst and most likely scenario are the same in this case. He's not a player unfortunately, and will definately be delisted.

Paul Wheatley:

Best Case Scenario: Has been very good this year. Hopefully it continues. Handy player, and we need a few experienced heads in a very young backline.

Worst Case Scenario: Gets lost and becomes a fringe player again.

Most Likely Scenario: Wheaters will be fine, and will probably make up one of the four or five experienced players to lead the team through its rebuilding phase.

Matthew Whelan:

Best Case Scenario: Comes back soon, suffers no more injuries this year, plays for another 2/3 years and helps groom our long list of young, budding defenders.

Worst Case Scenario: Fails to get himself right. Retires at the end of the year.

Most Likely Scenario: Id love nothing better than to see him get himself right. One of my favourite players to watch when he's on song, and he's a great on-field rolemodel for any young defender. Unfortunately, given his record over the last few years, I dont think its in the cards. The worst case scenario is the most likely.

Jeff White:

Best Case Scenario: Finds some form towards the end of the year, decides to play on for one more year next year.

Worst Case Scenario: Retires at years end.

Most Likely Scenario: Very hard to say. Hasnt really given any indication to the media. Here's hoping he stays on; he's well past his best, but a developing ruckman should have someone with some experience to work with.

Austin Wonaeamirri:

Best Case Scenario: Continues current form. Could possibly improve more this year, but if he doesnt he's still done enough to excite me.

Worst Case Scenario: Tapers off towards the end of the year. Even if it happens, it'll be quite understandable and no major cause for concern.

Most Likely Scenario: Will probably continue as is, but anything is possible with Aussie.

Adam Yze:

Best Case Scenario: Plays a fairwell game (if theres an injury or if we give a younger player a rest). Retires gracefully at years end.

Worst Case Scenario: From a list perspective, the worst thing that could happen with Yze is he gains a regular spot in the team, plays most games for the rest of the year and then retires at years end.

Most Likely Scenario: Will hopefully be dropped this week, and be given a farewell game at the end of the year.

Have either never seen, or havnt seen enough of Cheney, Grimes, Martin, McNamara, Meesen, Zomer etc to comment, and for obvious reasons I didnt look at players who are out for the year. Also, I didnt make much of an effort to edit this, wrote it basically stream-of-conscious and, since it took a while to write, I was feeling a bit lightheaded by the time I'd finished, so yeah, sorry if some of my reasonings a bit glib, vague or just plain incoherent.

[DeeM 42]

how long did that take you?

good stuff

[two sheds jackson 3]

Cheers mate.

Spent alot more time on it than I probably should have . Got exams coming up in a week, so I'm using any excuse I can to put off actually studying for them.

[Yencks 8]

wow...ive only read the first half and will finish the rest when i have time but a lot of that is spot on

great work..very impressive account

[dazzledavey36 54,276]

an awsome read! put your name down at the mfc website to write their articles

good job

[Courtney_Fish 183]

Cheers mate.

Spent alot more time on it than I probably should have . Got exams coming up in a week, so I'm using any excuse I can to put off actually studying for them.

The board takes on a an urgency when there's something else that should be done.

[jikajika 0]

Deft, tsj, and very balanced.

Great half-season analysis, great read.

[titan_uranus 24,974]

Jared Rivers:

Best Case Scenario: Comes back soon. No more injuries between now and the end of the year.

Worst Case Scenario: Continues to struggle with injuries. Becomes such a worry that the club looks at trading him.

Most Likely Scenario: Ive given up predicting what will happen to Rivers. I hope he can get his body right, but its getting to the stage where I cant even physically envision Rivers playing an uninterrupted 12 games, let alone an uninterrupted season.

At the moment I can't envision Rivers playing an uninterrupted 5 games, let alone half a season.

A good read though. Nice work.

[beelzebub 23,313]

Thats a pretty fair effort. Might just make a copy to refer back to at end of year. Its good you have had the sense to apply a decent dose of reality into your mix, something often lacking in some posters offerings as they allow unfounded bias to creep in.

A sobering read

[Rogue 585]

Nice work. Most of your assertions will probably be on the money, because they're pretty broad, but still a decent read.

The board takes on a an urgency when there's something else that should be done.

So true