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A Day at the Races

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2 hours ago, Demon77 said:

Listened to the review of the Caulfield races on RSN this morning.

A few points that stood out:

The wind ( often a problem at Caulfield) became an issue as the day progressed.

Gailo Chop set for the Australian Cup and might be hard to toss.

Smart Coupe put in a terrific run after missing the start ( unusual for this horse), the start cost it 3-4 lengths and there's a win in the Carnival for the horse.

Merchant Navy ran the fastest 800m, 600m and 400m of the day and along with Rich Charm could be the big players in the upcoming Newmarket.

The C.F.Orr is hard to assess due to the slow running of the race. 

Lord Of The Sky missed the start and cost the race the expected speed. The horse eventually worked up to the pace and was wider than Tosen Stardom at stages and only tired the last 50m. Keep an eye out in future runs.

Just about every horse other than the winner had a hard luck story. It was stated to assess this race as a barrier trial for some of the first-up horses and look at their next run as first-up.

Single Gaze was two lengths in front of  the field 50m past the post and stated to note it as a black booker. Brave Smash also a terrific run after a first-up flop.

 

From the above i hard two hard luck stories. Backed Smart Coupe for a place (which i rarely do ie back the pace) but i thought it would lead and prove very hard to run down and thought was terrific value for a place. 

I also thought Lord of the Sky was chance in the Orr, in part because it is likes to lead but it is also an under rated horse who has a pretty good rating and was way unders. Had a little on the win and more on the place. It loomed up and i though it was with a chance but it obviously peaked on its run.

going forward i think Gallo Chop will do well and Merchant Navy will love Flemington

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On 2/9/2018 at 11:54 AM, Wadda We Sing said:

I've gone a bit early, as I may be busy tomorrow....I put our 3 selections in with AFLW Demons....couldn't help myself!

Wadda you've given me a solution for what to do with any of the 6 available doubles within our 4 best bets  (AB,  AC,  AD,  BC,  BD,  CD)

Couple any of those doubles up with 1 other separate selection in any amount of other sports (like the AFLW) or 1 other fancied horse (apart from the 4 best bets)  I'm talking very small outlays of 2 or 3 dollars. 

So if we end up with 2 from 4 (which will happen at some stage) one can still have at least 1 live treble or in fact a number of multiple trebles that are still alive. 

If any 3 of the 4 win like what happened last Saturday then that would mean that 3 of the 6 available doubles will have got up and/or would still be alive with another selection (or 2)

I'm thinking of ditching my trifecta/first4 thinking (Sha Tin on a Sunday aside :ph34r:) and going more for straight out selections with a series of trebles based around our 4 best bets. 

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40 minutes ago, Macca said:

Wadda you've given me a solution for what to do with any of the 6 available doubles within our 4 best bets  (AB,  AC,  AD,  BC,  BD,  CD)

Couple any of those doubles up with 1 other separate selection in any amount of other sports (like the AFLW) or 1 other fancied horse (apart from the 4 best bets)  I'm talking very small outlays of 2 or 3 dollars. 

So if we end up with 2 from 4 (which will happen at some stage) one can still have at least 1 live treble or in fact a number of multiple trebles that are still alive. 

If any 3 of the 4 win like what happened last Saturday then that would mean that 3 of the 6 available doubles will have got up and/or would still be alive with another selection (or 2)

I'm thinking of ditching my trifecta/first4 thinking (Sha Tin on a Sunday aside :ph34r:) and going more for straight out selections with a series of trebles based around our 4 best bets. 

That sounds really good Macca. I like your thinking here. Aflw demons are red hot for taking out the series at 3/1. A lot of people think they can do it too. Plus the price won't change because of late scratchings! I've actually always kinda tried that by throwing in a soccer game and a couple of horses. Trouble is a lot of fav soccer teams like stupid MV lose when they are supposed to win and there is also the draw factor. Maybe d77 can explain the soccer,  because I can't. So I prefer an afl match when available. I think this is now an interesting strategy.

Also along the lines of afl matches whenavailable I do like the under or over 39.5 points selection. You get better odds also. Its often not so hard to pick.

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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47 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

That sounds really good Macca. I like your thinking here. Aflw demons are red hot for taking out the series at 3/1. A lot of people think they can do it too. Plus the price won't change because of late scratchings! I've actually always kinda tried that by throwing in a soccer game and a couple of horses. Trouble is a lot of fav soccer teams like stupid MV lose when they are supposed to win and there is also the draw factor. Maybe d77 can explain the soccer,  because I can't. So I prefer an afl match when available. I think this is now an interesting strategy.

My favoured form of betting outside of the horses is of all things - Rugby Union (specifically Super Rugby but sometimes the Internationals)  ... but definitely not Rugby League. 

I'm not bad at the NBA but find MLB,  NHL & the NFL very difficult.  And I'm no good at all with the AFL.  Soccer - no good.

I usually quiz mates for their weekend 'Special'  and most people I know have one sport that they're adept at finding a winner in. 

Counting the first week we're sitting at 6 from 7 with one runners-up.  That is not a bad start Wadda. 

Australian Group & Listed Races

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Macca
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34 minutes ago, Macca said:

My favoured betting outside of the horses is of all things - Rugby Union (specifically Super Rugby but sometimes the Internationals)  ... but definitely not Rugby League. 

I'm not bad at the NBA but find MLB,  NHL & the NFL very difficult.  And I'm no good at all with the AFL.  Soccer - no good.

I usually quiz mates for their weekend 'Special'  and most people I know have one sport that they're adept at finding a winner in. 

Counting the first week we're sitting at 6 from 7 with one runners-up.  That is not a bad start Wadda. 

 

That's a good strike rate Macca isn't it. We better be careful or the media scouts will be onto us. Even Dr.Turf would be impressed with that. I'm sure though 1 or 2 meetings will bring the inevitable correction. Until then though keep up the hard study and good work guys, its paid off so far.

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45 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

That's a good strike rate Macca isn't it. We better be careful or the media scouts will be onto us. Even Dr.Turf would be impressed with that. I'm sure though 1 or 2 meetings will bring the inevitable correction. Until then though keep up the hard study and good work guys, its paid off so far.

The reality is that working as a group is the way to go.  4 sets of eyes has to work better than 1 set of eyes Wadda.  For instance,  I'm prepared to go to SA,  WA or Qld to find that Best Bet.  It paid off in the just completed weekend with binman's standout pick out of Morphettville.

As stated in a previous post,  I'm looking at ways of getting some collects out of a 2 from 4 outcome.  Even those series of very small bets I've got in mind can pay ok (in a treble)

 

 

 

 

Edited by Macca
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1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

That sounds really good Macca. I like your thinking here. Aflw demons are red hot for taking out the series at 3/1. A lot of people think they can do it too. Plus the price won't change because of late scratchings! I've actually always kinda tried that by throwing in a soccer game and a couple of horses. Trouble is a lot of fav soccer teams like stupid MV lose when they are supposed to win and there is also the draw factor. Maybe d77 can explain the soccer,  because I can't. So I prefer an afl match when available. I think this is now an interesting strategy.

Also along the lines of afl matches whenavailable I do like the under or over 39.5 points selection. You get better odds also. Its often not so hard to pick.

Nail on head Wadda! 

I rarely ever throw a soccer leg in a multi mixed with other sports. The double chance option ( win/draw) maybe, even then the odds are too short.

My soccer multis are basically over 2.5 goals each game. High scoring leagues such as the Dutch league, I often throw a 6-8 leg over 2.5 goals multi and hope for the best. I'm finding head to head soccer multis extremely difficult. For example a team placed 6th in League 1 of England was playing the bottom placed team at home. The odds for the 6th placed team was $2.00 and automatically you think that's great odds, they should win yeah, but then you stop and ask yourself,  what do the bookies know that I don't?  This team should be $1.50-$1.70. Long story short, the result 2-2. Multi gone.

Edited by Demon77
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@binman  @Wadda We Sing  @Demon77

Some more thoughts on the format of our best bets

Is 3 the right number or 4? 

I'm leaning towards 4 although we could make it 3 and then limit it to 3 on a first in,  best dressed basis.

The same rule could be had if we want to limit it to 4 (which is my preferred maximum)  Again,  first in,  best dressed and once we have 4 best bets that's it for the weekend. 

Or we could leave it open for more picks ... of course if we end up with 5 or more best bets which one's get prioritised? 

In summary ... I'm happy to go with 3 or 4 but any more than that becomes a bit unworkable in my eyes. 

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1 hour ago, Macca said:

@binman  @Wadda We Sing  @Demon77

Some more thoughts on the format of our best bets

Is 3 the right number or 4? 

I'm leaning towards 4 although we could make it 3 and then limit it to 3 on a first in,  best dressed basis.

The same rule could be had if we want to limit it to 4 (which is my preferred maximum)  Again,  first in,  best dressed and once we have 4 best bets that's it for the weekend. 

Or we could leave it open for more picks ... of course if we end up with 5 or more best bets which one's get prioritised? 

In summary ... I'm happy to go with 3 or 4 but any more than that becomes a bit unworkable in my eyes. 

I'm happy with a maximum of 4 Macca for the best bets although I'm open to more members joining the fun. 

 The various thoughts on weekend racing makes me look a little deeper into races that I might have skipped in the past. 

After @binman put his selections through it made me have a look at 'Itz Invincible' and I liked it. 

If two horses stand out to someone and one of them is at decent odds maybe the member can declare a second horse as an  "Each Way" special. 

 

Edited by Demon77
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40 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

I'm happy with a maximum of 4 Macca for the best bets although I'm open to more members joining the fun. 

 The various thoughts on weekend racing makes me look a little deeper into races that I might have skipped in the past. 

After @binman put his selections through it made me have a look at 'Itz Invincible' and I liked it. 

If two horses stand out to someone and one of them is at decent odds maybe the member can declare a second horse as an  "Each Way" special.

I do like the idea of an each-way special as well D77 ... your other thoughts are very good too.  I will be looking for some other top fancies to couple up with 1, 2 or 3 of our best bets so I suppose we shouldn't be thinking of any restrictions. 

I also like the idea of looking outside of Melboune & Sydney.  For instance,  any of the better Hayes horses running at Morphettville are always worth keeping an eye on.  2 of the Hayes horses won at short odds on Saturday (2.30 & 2.45) but those odds are not prohibitive in a multi. 

In fact 5 short priced favourites won in Adelaide but apart from Itz Invincible the other 4 started at 2.30,  2.40.  3.00 & 3.60.  The last 4 winners at the Gold Coast on Saturday were short priced favourites as well (2.10,  2.60,  2.70 & 2.80)

Back in the day those odds weren't much value to punters but not necessarily these days with multi-betting across the various race meetings. 

And by the way ... are any of the other horses going to be able to get anywhere near Redzel in the Lightning Stakes? 

Edited by Macca
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29 minutes ago, Macca said:

I do like the idea of an each-way special as well D77 ... your other thoughts are very good too.  I will be looking for some other top fancies to couple up with 1, 2 or 3 of our best bets so I suppose we shouldn't be thinking of any restrictions. 

I also like the idea of looking outside of Melboune & Sydney.  For instance,  any of the better Hayes horses running at Morphettville are always worth keeping an eye on.  2 of the Hayes horses won at short odds on Saturday (2.30 & 2.45) but those odds are not prohibitive in a multi. 

In fact 5 short priced favourites won in Adelaide but apart from Itz Invincible the other 4 started at 2.30,  2.40.  3.00 & 3.60.  The last 4 winners at the Gold Coast on Saturday were short priced favourites as well (2.10,  2.60,  2.70 & 2.80)

Back in the day those odds weren't much value to punters but not necessarily these days with multi-betting across the various race meetings. 

And by the way ... are any of the other horses going to be able to get anywhere near Redzel in the Lightning Stakes? 

It will take something special to beat Redzel. 

I thought our input worked well last weekend with four of us but I do agree with your earlier point of too many selections. It does become a little unworkable. 

So far it is working really well, I just need to collect once. ?

Edited by Demon77
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3 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

It will take something special to beat Redzel. 

I thought our input worked well last weekend with four of us but I do agree with your earlier point of too many selections. It does become a little unworkable. 

So far it is working really well, I just need to collect once. ?

Being a punter who prefers to outlay small amounts for a reasonable return I'm looking at using our Best bets in various ways (with the end result being a series of 3 pick multi's)

Up until now I've usually been a trifecta/first4 punter but I'll give the best bet multi system a go for now and save my trifecta combo's for Sha Tin (there are 4 x 1400m races listed for next Sunday - ideal)

As for Flemington,  Randwick et al ... the fields,  form and barriers should be up on Racenet.com by tomorrow night so I'll be getting an early start as usual!

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25 minutes ago, Macca said:

Being a punter who prefers to outlay small amounts for a reasonable return I'm looking at using our Best bets in various ways (with the end result being a series of 3 pick multi's)

Up until now I've usually been a trifecta/first4 punter but I'll give the best bet multi system a go for now and save my trifecta combo's for Sha Tin (there are 4 x 1400m races listed for next Sunday - ideal)

As for Flemington,  Randwick et al ... the fields,  form and barriers should be up on Racenet.com by tomorrow night so I'll be getting an early start as usual!

Yes Macca, I'll be having a keen look early as well. 

Santos is nominated at Randwick in the Pierro Plate. Will know by tomorrow either way but my mate tells me they should accept. That race will be a difficult one to pick. First starters and a few with one or two starts max.

I'm only interested to see how Santos races but in saying that, one of the horses nominated (Irish Bet) won a $500,000 race in its only start back in December. 

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I agree on nominating an each way special. Or more accurately a bets longshot as i tend not to like backing each way. I usually prefer backing for a win for all horses, with my long shots  often a saver in a race where i back something shorter. That said i wilI sometimes back a place if i think it is value (some horses, like Downhearted just don't win but often place).

The other bet type is best value. Which is a little confusing i guess, in so far it is folly to back any horse that does not represent value (ie is unders) and really getting this aspect right is the key to winning in the long term. But what i mean about best value is a horse that i think is well overs ie over its true odds and therefore represents good value. To be really good value it needs to be over 4-1 or so (if shorter you need to put a sizable bet on to get value).

To further confuse things is i guess a best bet could be the one you think is best value. but leaving that point aside how about each week we nominate:

  • Best best (the horse i/you think is the best chance of winning, regardless of odds - logic would suggest that these are usually likely to be short)
  • Best value (the horse is that well overs, in your opinion)
  • Bets longshot (lets say a horse paying over $10)

Using that criteria, last week my selections would have been:

  • Best best: Itz Invicible/Gailo Chop
  • Best value: Black Heart bart, before its scratching obviously and Super Cash after
  • Bets long shot: Lord of the Sky
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30 minutes ago, binman said:

To further confuse things is i guess a best bet could be the one you think is best value. but leaving that point aside how about each week we nominate:

  • Best best (the horse i/you think is the best chance of winning, regardless of odds - logic would suggest that these are usually likely to be short)
  • Best value (the horse is that well overs, in your opinion)
  • Bets longshot (lets say a horse paying over $10)

Using that criteria, last week my selections would have been:

  • Best best: Itz Invicible/Gailo Chop
  • Best value: Black Heart bart, before its scratching obviously and Super Cash after
  • Bets long shot: Lord of the Sky

An edit/change to the above. Best bets are never going to just the best chance of winning, regardless of odds as sometime a horse that meets that criteria is going to be way to short to bother with, Winx for example. Last week the horse most likely to win anywhere in the country was She Will reign given the class edge and field size. But way too short to bother at $1.20  (unless you want to risk 10k). So my best bet definition would be:

  • Best bet (the horse with the best chance of wining at backable odds - usually something like 1.70 and up in a field of say 8 horses, $2 for fields of 8-12 and $2.50 in fields over 12)

Perhaps the bets idea is for each of us to define our best bet according to our own criterion, but we probably should know what that criteria is. 

Edited by binman
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On 2/12/2018 at 6:24 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

That's a good strike rate Macca isn't it. We better be careful or the media scouts will be onto us. Even Dr.Turf would be impressed with that. I'm sure though 1 or 2 meetings will bring the inevitable correction. Until then though keep up the hard study and good work guys, its paid off so far.

You guys need to get yourself a copy of the best book ever written on horse racing - Winning More by the legendary Legal Eagle - Don Scott ( not Don Scott of footy fame ) 

He will help with your multiple betting options and even more importantly how to frame a market to maximise returns. 

I've sold my business in this sector.  But if I was ever looking to get back into this sector I would look at Tennis Betting. 

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11 minutes ago, DaveyDee said:

You guys need to get yourself a copy of the best book ever written on horse racing - Winning More by the legendary Legal Eagle - Don Scott ( not Don Scott of footy fame ) 

He will help with your multiple betting options and even more importantly how to frame a market to maximise returns. 

I've sold my business in this sector.  But if I was ever looking to get back into this sector I would look at Tennis Betting. 

My mate who i bet with is a huge Don Scott fan. Framing the market properly is critical no doubt and perhaps equally important is staking (which of course is related).

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1 hour ago, binman said:

My mate who i bet with is a huge Don Scott fan. Framing the market properly is critical no doubt and perhaps equally important is staking (which of course is related).

Don Scotts ratings are a tad outdated for obvious reasons. However, his principles hold true. 

We smashed the bookies, over 3 sports, over a 5-6 year period. We had professional analysis's in each sport & a database/price computer team.  So much so we ended up working/partnership with certain companies in their price assessments we even happily took part of the exposure.   

So you are up against the professionals - You need to work your butts off or over the long run you will just be "another mug punter". 

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1 hour ago, DaveyDee said:

 

So you are up against the professionals - You need to work your butts off or over the long run you will just be "another mug punter". 

Indeed. I dont mind the odd exotic much to my mates chagrin as the take out by tge bookies is so high and the long terms return well in their favour

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I'm going super early with my best bet ...

Morphettville Race 4  No 2 Stellar Collision (currently $2.70)

2 starts back finished a length & 3/4 (3rd) to Thronum in the Australia Stakes and this race is much easier.  Before that won the listed Christmas Stakes at Caulfield. 

And the horse is trained by Darren Weir

 

 

 

Edited by Macca
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On 2/14/2018 at 9:08 PM, Macca said:

I'm going super early with my best bet ...

Morphettville Race 4  No 2 Stellar Collision (currently $2.70)

2 starts back finished a length & 3/4 (3rd) to Thronum in the Australia Stakes and this race is much easier.  Before that won the listed Christmas Stakes at Caulfield. 

And the horse is trained by Darren Weir

 

 

 

Nice pick Macca. Im struggling to find anything yet, but ill keep looking. I dont really know a lot of horses at Randwick and Flemington this weekend.

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2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Nice pick Macca. Im struggling to find anything yet, but ill keep looking. I dont really know a lot of horses at Randwick and Flemington this weekend.

I had a bit of trouble too Wadda ... that's why I ended up at Morphettville.

I looked through 5 meetings (Flemington,  Randwick,  Ascot,  Morphettville & Doomben) and could only find 3 horses that I was quite confident with. 

I'm taking the attitude that I have to feel really sure about a best bet ... I found another 5 or 6 that I classed as probably/maybe but again,  if there's too much doubt I move to the next race. 

By the way,  I got verified (immediately) at Sportsbet.com but only after I made a small deposit.  I'll test the water this weekend but the odds already look better (and sportsbet has an odds booster facility)

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9 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Nice pick Macca. Im struggling to find anything yet, but ill keep looking. I dont really know a lot of horses at Randwick and Flemington this weekend.

Same here Wadda, the Flemington card is not appealing at the moment. 

Santos is in race 2 at Randwick. Currently a $5 chance.

Although it's a very strong 2yr old race with the main two players being Irish Bet (1) and Legend of Condor (2) the horse is well and truly ready to go.

That's the latest on the horse for anyone that decides this race is worth a flutter. 

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/randwick-20180217/the-luxury-network-pierro-plate-race-2

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Ok, well i was going to go Redzel, but by the time it starts its gonna be 1.50, really not much fun there and sometimes sprint races can go badly wrong. So im going to make my best bet Flemington Race 7 No1 Cliffs Edge DK Weir B. Rawiller $6.00 2nd fav in a $5.00 the field race.

I am very interested to see how Santos goes as well. Good punting guys.

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3 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok, well i was going to go Redzel, but by the time it starts its gonna be 1.50, really not much fun there and sometimes sprint races can go badly wrong. So im going to make my best bet Flemington Race 7 No1 Cliffs Edge DK Weir B. Rawiller $6.00 2nd fav in a $5.00 the field race.

I am very interested to see how Santos goes as well. Good punting guys.

Good choice and nice odds Wadda when considering its last run in the Manfred Stakes at Caulfield (Cliff's Edge won with an excellent time of 1:08.9 over the 1200m - carrying 58kgs)

 

 

Edited by Macca
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