deelusions from afar

I feel like some people are jumping the gun on a few to be dropped - e.g. Hannan who was instrumental in our previous two wins. I felt like we played well but didn't play the conditions overly well especially in the centre square. How many times did max tap it to one of our players who then fumbled (or the ball slipped out) and then the Lions swooped in on the loose ball? I think we need to improve our centre square work but feel like the conditions cost us (and well done to the Lions for being able to adjust in this area of the game). Also think that the Weid is normally a pretty reliable kick. Going up against the form backman in the comp, he took a number of marks and showed a desperation to make a contest which is exactly what we want. Let's see how his kicking goes in less slippery conditions. I'd make no changes other than anyone who needs to be rested due to fitness / soreness. Would love to see Rivers again but query whether he is suited to a lock down role - we already have Lever, Salem and Hibberd that play as attacking defenders. For that reason I think Smith would be more of a chance to come in if Jetta was dropped. Also think Brayshaw should be given a bit more time in the centre square over the next month by rotating Oliver and Petracca forward.

I think the next month will tell us a lot about Brayshaw. Petracca and Oliver have both shown they are able to play forward. If they are not going to rest players, you would think both should spend a bit of time for for the next 3 games. This should allow Brayshaw to actually play in the centre square - let's see what he can do. Because if Oliver, Viney and Brayshaw are all ahead of him, then we should be playing someone with more pace (and ideally skills) on the wing in his place. He seems like a ripping bloke and has all the attributes (kicking both feet, able to mark over head, courage etc) - I'd love to see him succeed - but it's not clicking for whatever reason. I think he's got the next month to show what he's got otherwise he won't be at the club next year - with the likes of Sparrow and Jordan nipping at his heels.

I think a lot of people just assume that small forwards / small defenders especially if they are indigenous are quick. Probably most of the time it is correct but in Nev's case it is his reading of the play, strength esp at his size, his ability to win one on ones and tidy (although usually conservative) disposal that has made him such a great defender

If Jones played every game from now on, would he / could he get to 300? Would love to see that but I think the game has passed him

Looks like we won't be playing at Blundstone afterall - which despite the dimensions is probably not a bad thing. North seem to play the windy conditions pretty well and we almost always lose in a close one. https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/afl-fixture-thrown-into-more-chaos-after-tasmania-refuses-to-open-border-to-qld-c-1190794?fbclid=IwAR0yo-Hv7IBKzBUYX2f9TZbIJTNzxyFKg2muVQhQIcMeFtLk7FRsD3VbiQE Hopefully this is not transferred to Canberra!

I agree - would give us great flexibility. Fritsch has shown he has great foot skills when deliving the ball into the forward line, TMac's running capacity will trouble some opponents and both would give us an extra marking option further up the ground. It might not work but we have Vanders (and Tomlinson) in reserve if that is the case. Would love us to develop some more unique weapons that force the opposition to worry about us rather than the other way round.

That's true - he might have heard footsteps there or possibly it was just too much of a stretch. Given he hasn't played many games in defence at AFL level I think it's a possitive he was in the right spot - and you'd hope in future that he'll mark these sorts of entries. As you say - good luck to the bloke.

I watched last week's game again and couldn't see the turnovers from Lockhart that everyone talks about. I saw them in our match v Geelong (or maybe it was v the Tigers). He doesn't get a lot of the ball but has all the attributes to be a good small defender. I thought there was a couple of plays last week that he made the right gutsy calls to leave his opponent and impact the contest which lead to a score for us - I think he wouldn't have been credited with a possession though. With the setups of most forward lines, there's room for him and Jetta at the moment.

I think it's down to one of three options: 1. TMac comes in. As Brownie said he was definitely improving each week prior to getting injured. Wouldn't mind seeing Fritsch / Bennell / Melksham get some time on the wing if TMac is considered not agile enough for the role (clearly no doubt about his tank) and then TMac is another forward target. The downside for TMac is that weather reports indicate the extra height at the expense of a runner might not be preferable. 2. Tomlinson. Surely it's what he's recruited for? I thought he was decent in some of the matches he's played but certainly doesn't have the hurt factor that VDB has and for his size doesn't seem to make the most of it in marking contests. 3. Is Jones a chance? Unfortunately I think he's not in our best 22 (prob not even top 25) anymore - there is no clear position for him. However surely this is his week if there ever was one. Would love to see him get to 300 as he has carried and bled for us for so many years... but it appears they don't want to be carrying anyone any more. Would be a huge team lifter if he could come in and kick a few goals.

Agree - but don't most teams play a zone defence. Teams like Richmond and Collingwood and Hawthorn tend to play the G so much better than us. Is it all in leg speed? We're not as slow as we used to be.

Always thought Clayton Oliver looked like the identical twin of Brienne off Game of Thrones. Interesting insight into selection here: Melbourne do not intend to rest players during the compressed fixture period, having prepared their team for four-day breaks when the AFL was postponed in between April and June. The Demons' conditioning coach Darren Burgess used his experience with the English Premier League – where short breaks between games are common – to ready the players for the demands of playing games in shorter time frames. ... Goodwin said they were yet to determine whether they would play three tall forwards given that Sam Weideman and Luke Jackson played so well against Hawthorn, and revealed they were even considering using McDonald on the wing. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/no-rest-for-demons-as-they-contemplate-playing-tom-mcdonald-on-a-wing-20200723-p55eog.html?fbclid=IwAR3LTx6WUzOv6KAOZfiMtM_VXRLr8usqBtFu_pt5KnR9A7ZOXecnkgdnYGk

Have heard some people suggest this year is the perfect year to push the draft age back by 12 months with many of the juniors not playing etc Does anyone know if this idea has gained any traction? Assuming there are no such changes, I think the lack of exposed form might make the draft more of a lottery which makes our trading of our first pick last year look even better. Hopefully Taylor and co can find a couple of bargains wherever our picks land.

I feel like the footy department has been well aware of this for some time but have struggled to find the right team balance with players that suit grounds such as the MCG. You can see what a difference Langdon makes already - I feel like we need another with that skill set

Ok so keeping some of the positive vibes going, I thought it might be interesting to highlight another positive with this crazy covid season - not playing on the MCG! (apart from not being able to see us live!) It's not that we can't win there... but surely it's been harder since Goody took over (eg we go at 40% win at the MCG under Goody but were at 46.2% under Roos in his last year in 2017). Even in 2018 we only had a win percentage at the MCG of 53.8% but were much higher elsewhere. I suspect this is mostly due to game style / how we set up our zone etc. However, our record at most other grounds is pretty good - particularly the skinny grounds. So if we're staying away from the MCG (and ideally Optus in Perth) then I think this surely can only help us. The stats below are interesting and even more so when you think of some of the matches there. Eg we have a poor record in Geelong but when we played them in 2018 we lost by a kick. Similarly when we played Port in 2018 we were absolutely robbed by the umpires but played well and were unlucky to lose. Similiarly we're usually in the matches agaisnt North in Tassie despite not beating them there under Goody. Our worst performances (2019 aside) have come at the MCG, Canberra and Optus which are all bigger grounds. Probably good not too be playing too much at the Gabba for the moment as well as it is bigger than say Metricon. Managed to find this via the aussportstipping site if someone else wants to play around with the filters

That happened too but there was something from Matthews or Voss on a different occasion. So many false and premature dawns!

I'm the opposite - I think for years he has been too unselfish / not prepared to back himself in. The true stars of the game have a touch of hollywood in their game - look at Dusty!

I think it was part way through the Bailey era that someone like Voss or Matthews labelled us as the next powerhouse of the AFL. we all know the trouble with getting wrapped up in players potential (Whiteboard Wednesdays anyone?)

I feel the same but it didn't seem that way 2.5 weeks ago. I feel there's a few players that if they went down, so too might our team. Obviously our stars in the midfield but as we have number of them they can hopefully be covered a bit more easily. The ones i think we'd struggle to cover currently are: Gawn is the obvious and at least we now have a few other options. Hibberd for mine is also critical - he provides so much drive from the backline and is prepared to take the longer high risk high reward kick that starts off many of our scoring chains. I assume Rivers was recruited to play this role long term but is just a kid. Langdan - his fitness and speed have got us out of trouble on so many occasions. With him out of the side I feel we would be greatly exposed. I wonder if Hunt could play this role? I suspect not. Pickett - haven't seen enough of Bedford to know if he could cover Kozzie

Makes sense. I'm sure they won't do it, but to me it might make sense to play our second string midfield eg Sparrow, Jordan, Jones, Tomlinson, Baker, Wagner, Dunkley etc as a complete substitution to our 1st because they would have spent more time together and training together. Potentially you could do this in the Adelaide game. But I think it is more likely that they will rest half the midfield against Adelaide and the other half against the Roos and hope that these teams will be good enough to get the job done in both cases. I guess it will also depend on how important the various sides see a win against us.

Also re Port - they have a 4 day break after our match v the Bulldogs (i think ours is 6? playing the Crows) so you would think they won't be playing a full strength side. Will be interesting how all teams cope with this

Tough for everyone. Annoyed to play North in Tassie - they're not in good form but tend to play that ground much better than others. Will be interesting in terms of selection - I think we'd really want to win one of Bris / Port but surely we don't play the same side in both with such a short break and travel between them. TMac, Jones, Tomlinson, Sparrow, Jordan, Spargo, Smith all a chance?

As an aside, how good is it not to have many injuries to senior players this season (touch wood). Obviously credit has to go to Burgo and rest of the fitness / conditioning team - and there's also a bit of luck involved. This could be critical as the season gets on - injuries are definitely starting to play a role in a few teams fortunes.

Probably fair enough - don't want to raise expectations on the kid but I was impressed with a number of the marks he took. How many key forwards show "forward craft" in their first handful of games?

It's a good side but all the bench players are playing half forward / wing. You shouldn't see Lockhart dropped but if he is, surely they will replace him with another defender e.g. Rivers / Smith

I think people forget how hard it is to play as a small defender in the modern game. Like us, every other team is trying their hardest to cause front half turnovers. Even in our worst games this year we still caused our opponent's defenders to turn it over a few times. Lockhart is quick (i.e. has great closing speed), tough, has good skills, is creative and doesn't release the ball until he can get it to someone in a better position. Every week he will be involved in passages of play where the ball is turned over... but show me a player that plays the same role in ANY TEAM that isn't involved in similar turnovers. We don't have a better option to play his role (Rivers plays a different role). Give the guy a break - he has shown he has all the tools required to be a very good player in this position. People forget he wasn't even on our list at the start of last year - and last year played predominantly forward. Crazy to drop him - he is doing his job.