Fat Tony

Ellis fills our need for outside run and is a free agent. As much as Brad Hill is a much better player, the smarter play would be to keep our picks and target Ellis. Langdon is a younger version of Ellis, but would cost a draft pick. in terms of priority I prefer Ellis, Hill then Langdon.

Nothing like it.

With the season shot I feel we need to continue experimenting with our list a little with an eye to next season. The last two weeks we have gone with two ruckmen in the same side and I think it is already clear that neither are good enough as forwards to go with in our best 22 over the long term. Harrison Petty has been pretty good as a target in both games as a forward, but he looks more natural to me in defence given his lack of pace. As such, I hope we play Steven May as a forward for the rest of the season. We already know May is a gun defender but let's see if he can be the solution in our forward line alongside TMac for 2020. This is our biggest weakness and, while we all want Sam Weideman to take the next step, we need to see if May can actually give us a better return as a forward. Personally, I think our backline already has good depth with Frost, Lever, Jetta, Hibberd, Salem, Hore, Jones, OMac and Petty. While May obviously makes the defence better, he is potentially more value at the other end.

I hope we play May forward. We know he is a gun defender but let's see if he can be the solution in our forward line along side TMac for next year. Our backline has enough depth with Frost, Lever, Jetta, Hibberd, Salem, Hore, Jones, OMac and Petty. I also would like Lever to play on the second best key forward rather than be given the easy task. It is pretty clear that Preuss is a ruckman and not a forward, so I think he needs to be dropped.

I know our season is cooked but the decision to play Preuss is not a good one IMO. McGovern will have a field day on him and we need all the run we can get on the big Alice Springs ground.

I would push Jones back to cover Jetta's absence in defence. He is not a wingman and now that he has been pushed out of our centre midfield, he will provide more as a small defender IMO. Stretch to come in as Jetta's replacement. Garlett should come into the side for Spargo. We need to bring in another true key defender to play on Riewoldt and Lynch. Oscar or Petty need to come in (partnering with Frost) for either J Wagner or Hore. (Probably Hore out based on pace.) Lewis is past it and we need to inject some more run. Lockhart should come in for him and play a wing role. Neal-Bullen for Preuss if he is not fit. There are other players out of form like Hibberd and Fritsch but I think we have to let them work through it. C Wagner also lucky, but we are thin for options at Casey. But the biggest change we need to make is to our defence and being less aggressive in pressing the ball carrier. The Tigers are fast and will kill us if we over commit. Up forward the key issue is we need better contests from TMac and Weideman.

At the margin, the rule change will help the weaker teams. Last year we kicked more behinds than the opposition and we were then able to get repeat entries inside our 50. This year it will be easier to take the ball the other way.

We were net +62 for behinds kicked last year (second to Richmond at +75) and first in inside 50s with +309 for the season in 2018. If anything I see the change in the kick-in rule as a negative for us.

I think we have very few natural wingmen on our list and none that have proven to be A-grade AFL players. Stretch and Baker are really the only two on our list that I can think of. Players like Salem, Vandenberg, Fritsch, KK, Jones and Hunt can all play the wing role, but I think they are better suited to other positions. Smith's kicking is a weakness, but otherwise he has the athletic traits needed for the role IMO (i.e. speed, endurance, size). In this respect he is a bit similar to Vandenberg.

Looking at the sides, about 30 players could make legitimate claims to getting a game in round 1. I would like to see us trial Joel Smith on a wing in the preseason given his mix of speed and endurance. I prefer Fritsch in defence given his intercept marking and distribution. He could be an elite defender. And I would like to see Hunt tried as a forward. He is not as skillful as Spargo or Garlett but I think he could be a better pressure player and stronger overhead. It will be also interesting if Kolodjashnij can get a spot on the wing or in defence.

We could only trade up if the holders of top picks are willing to trade but we have live pick trading this year, so this should be easier. GCS will almost certainly hold picks 2 & 3 and the SA clubs might look to deal given two of the top prospects are from SA. And Carlton may be willing to part with pick 1 to GWS to get Shiel. There are also a number of FS and Acadamy players available, so there will be the ability to package picks to move up or down the draft. In saying this, I think we have recently shown good ability to draft well with lower picks. so I don't think we should be scared of trading Hogan for a combination of lower picks as long as they aggregate points equate to our valuation of Hogan. If anything, a good drafting team is able to produce greater value with lower picks. Freo currently hold #5 (which will move to #6) and nothing else of value this year.

I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.

Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.

I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO. In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick. I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years. Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

Well done Bernie! You are one of my favourites. Let's hope you haven't played your last game and you get to lift the cup!

Goodwin needs to realise we can’t win a flag with an old, slow backline. Particularly with Oscar as our key defender and no Lever.

Austin Bradtke said on the video on the MFC website that he will be focusing on weights and running laps because his skills are "pretty good".

Based on the points system, I have Lever valued at around Pick 5. This depends on a range of variables, including the discount rate on future picks, the quality of each draft, next year’s finishing position and compensation picks. The key variable is really where Melbourne finish in 2018. Pick 10 (1,395) + MEL R1 2018 (1,395) + MEL R4 2018 (100) - Pick 35 (460) - ADEL R2 2018 (550) = 1,880 = Lever So I see this as being still a decent trade for Melbourne and probably around fair market value. For example, I would rather the proven Lever over Noah Balta, who is 5th on Knightmare’s Power Rankings. (Not that I have seen Balta play.) It is a bad trade if we finish in the bottom 4.

It sounds like he will leave for money not because he doesn't like living in Adelaide or has an issue with the Crows

Why would Adelaide let Lever go if salary didn't matter? Managing the cap well is one of the biggest keys to success in the AFL. That's also why Hawthorn let Lewis and Mitchell go. I'll be happy if we get him, but it is sensible enough to worry that we are overpaying a player based on potential and we then might lose other talent down the track.

Good analysis, but it's too early to grade the last three. 4/13 still isn't a great strike rate.

It seems that way, but it could also be happenstance. Frost was injured early in the year. Then OMac went out of form and Gawn and Spencer got injured and Hogan ill, meaning that TMac had to ruck. Then Frost's form deteriorated in the difficult conditions. The other point you have raised is how OMac, TMac, Lever an Hibberd fit together. Hibberd is essentially playing the same role as Lever and arguably is better. Personally, I think we need a quality outside midfielder more so, but I get the attraction for Lever given his age and ability.

When did Alex Rance become a star? He also had fundamental skill issues until he was about 23, which is the same age as Frost. Liam Jones took until 26 to come good. Ted Richards is another example of a late bloomer. Jeremy McGovern did not get a game until he was 22. Just because Frost struggles at times with his skills, doesn't mean he won't improve.

I understand your argument against playing all three, but I feel that it is not cut and dry. The two issues with playing a tall backline I see are 1) chemistry - particularly knowing when and when not to fly; and 2) ensuring there is enough pace and skill when we have the ball. The first issue was a big problem against Hawthorn, particularly after McEvoy took a big mark. Everyone wanted to go up to spoil and it ended up costing us the game. Still, I think this problem can resolve itself through all three playing together more often. The second issue is really a skill issue given the athleticism of TMac, OMac and Frost. Frost and TMac are clearly athletic enough to play on smaller opponents and Oscar played very well on Dickson against the Bulldogs. I agree skill is a problem here, but I also note that the best sides in the competition have big forward lines. Adelaide have Walker, Jenkins, McGovern and Lynch. GWS will possibly go with Cameron, Patton and Lobb. Sydney have Buddy, Reid and Tippett or Sinclair. We need to have a set up to match this.

I like Frost. His closing speed and length make him a valuable defender and his athleticism means he can break the game open when we have the ball. He had a bad month with his skills and that is why he is out of the team now. But I also think he has suffered from us playing in difficult conditions in Darwin, Hobart and Canberra. I also am not of the view that we cannot play all three of Oscar, TMac and Frost in the backline. Defensively I think they are athletic enough to play on smaller opponents, particularly in a zone set up. I think we lose a bit of skill down back, but we could shift Hunt up to a wing to compensate. I also think Oscar's kicking and decision making is underrated by being Tom's brother. I see his issues being more intensity and strength related. This is not to say we should not go for Lever, because he is obviously a young gun. But he is definitely not a need IMO and I am unsure if giving up Frost and high picks is a huge win.