Fat Tony

I don't think Plough is that far off the mark. The big winners of the trade period were Richmond, Essendon and Collingwood who all picked up star players for nothing or cheap value. We came out with a C+ despite not winning on any individual trade. The grade I would question most the D+ on Geelong given they picked up Dahlhaus for nothing. I think he penalised them for not getting the Kelly trade done, but I don't think that is really fair.

This is probably plan B. But I think we could do with another alternative on our list.

I understand the knock on Menzel but his offensive side of the game is elite. He ranked 16th in the league for goals per game last year ahead of Tom Lynch (GCS), Walker, Greene, Gray, Curnow, Membrey and Betts. I would be in favour of bringing him onto the list instead of pick 90. What if Weideman or McDonald get injured this year?

I still think we are lacking two good wingers. The way I see it: Jones - Really a natural inside midfielder. Not quick enough and not good enough overhead. Really a natural inside midfielder. Stretch - He plays like a gut running outside midfielder. Not quick enough and not good enough overhead. Coming back from a foot injury. Hunt - Has played mostly at half back and could become a small pressure forward. Endurance and skills are the question marks. Baker - Looks a likely type but unproven. Has good size, pace and endurance. Skills are the question mark. Fritsch - I prefer him off half back given the way he reads the aerial ball. Not sure he has the breakaway speed for the wing. J Smith - Has played mostly off half back. Has the pace required and good overhead. Skills are the question mark. JKH - Similar player to Stretch. Harmes - Probably provides the best combination of skill, pace, endurance and overhead ability but he is also one of our best four inside midfielders. Kolodjashnij - Has mostly played off half back so far. Not sure on the endurance/pace and feel half back is likely to be his best position. Lewis - Too slow. Salem - Not overly quick and better off half back. Hannan - Has a good combination of pace, endurance and size. Not a great kick however.

We could only trade up if the holders of top picks are willing to trade but we have live pick trading this year, so this should be easier. GCS will almost certainly hold picks 2 & 3 and the SA clubs might look to deal given two of the top prospects are from SA. And Carlton may be willing to part with pick 1 to GWS to get Shiel. There are also a number of FS and Acadamy players available, so there will be the ability to package picks to move up or down the draft. In saying this, I think we have recently shown good ability to draft well with lower picks. so I don't think we should be scared of trading Hogan for a combination of lower picks as long as they aggregate points equate to our valuation of Hogan. If anything, a good drafting team is able to produce greater value with lower picks. Freo currently hold #5 (which will move to #6) and nothing else of value this year.

I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.

Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.

I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO. In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick. I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years. Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

I would like to see us try and talk Waite into a comeback. He's still got it and would be a good short-term option if Hogan leaves.

Well done Bernie! You are one of my favourites. Let's hope you haven't played your last game and you get to lift the cup!

I would look at Jayden Short. Might get squeezed out of Richmond.

Goodwin needs to realise we can’t win a flag with an old, slow backline. Particularly with Oscar as our key defender and no Lever.

Austin Bradtke said on the video on the MFC website that he will be focusing on weights and running laps because his skills are "pretty good".

Based on the points system, I have Lever valued at around Pick 5. This depends on a range of variables, including the discount rate on future picks, the quality of each draft, next year’s finishing position and compensation picks. The key variable is really where Melbourne finish in 2018. Pick 10 (1,395) + MEL R1 2018 (1,395) + MEL R4 2018 (100) - Pick 35 (460) - ADEL R2 2018 (550) = 1,880 = Lever So I see this as being still a decent trade for Melbourne and probably around fair market value. For example, I would rather the proven Lever over Noah Balta, who is 5th on Knightmare’s Power Rankings. (Not that I have seen Balta play.) It is a bad trade if we finish in the bottom 4.

It sounds like he will leave for money not because he doesn't like living in Adelaide or has an issue with the Crows

Why would Adelaide let Lever go if salary didn't matter? Managing the cap well is one of the biggest keys to success in the AFL. That's also why Hawthorn let Lewis and Mitchell go. I'll be happy if we get him, but it is sensible enough to worry that we are overpaying a player based on potential and we then might lose other talent down the track.

Pretty fair assessment IMO. Although I thought his game against the Dogs was excellent and better than a 7. He was much better after the bye and should improve again with another preseason in the gym. Also, I think his kicking is much better than he gets credit for, probably due to his brother being an ordinary kick.

Good analysis, but it's too early to grade the last three. 4/13 still isn't a great strike rate.

I agree with the view that our midfield lacks balance and we need to inject some class. But I don't agree with your views on Brayshaw and ANB. ANB has improved significantly this year and his running ability helps enable our outnumbering game plan. And why can't Brayshaw play a high half back role? It is the easiest position in football. I see similarities with the moves of Toby Green forward and Corey Enright back.

^ Great post. I'm not as sold on OMac as you, but he has improved this year and shown enough to convince me he will come good in time.

It seems that way, but it could also be happenstance. Frost was injured early in the year. Then OMac went out of form and Gawn and Spencer got injured and Hogan ill, meaning that TMac had to ruck. Then Frost's form deteriorated in the difficult conditions. The other point you have raised is how OMac, TMac, Lever an Hibberd fit together. Hibberd is essentially playing the same role as Lever and arguably is better. Personally, I think we need a quality outside midfielder more so, but I get the attraction for Lever given his age and ability.

When did Alex Rance become a star? He also had fundamental skill issues until he was about 23, which is the same age as Frost. Liam Jones took until 26 to come good. Ted Richards is another example of a late bloomer. Jeremy McGovern did not get a game until he was 22. Just because Frost struggles at times with his skills, doesn't mean he won't improve.

I understand your argument against playing all three, but I feel that it is not cut and dry. The two issues with playing a tall backline I see are 1) chemistry - particularly knowing when and when not to fly; and 2) ensuring there is enough pace and skill when we have the ball. The first issue was a big problem against Hawthorn, particularly after McEvoy took a big mark. Everyone wanted to go up to spoil and it ended up costing us the game. Still, I think this problem can resolve itself through all three playing together more often. The second issue is really a skill issue given the athleticism of TMac, OMac and Frost. Frost and TMac are clearly athletic enough to play on smaller opponents and Oscar played very well on Dickson against the Bulldogs. I agree skill is a problem here, but I also note that the best sides in the competition have big forward lines. Adelaide have Walker, Jenkins, McGovern and Lynch. GWS will possibly go with Cameron, Patton and Lobb. Sydney have Buddy, Reid and Tippett or Sinclair. We need to have a set up to match this.

I like Frost. His closing speed and length make him a valuable defender and his athleticism means he can break the game open when we have the ball. He had a bad month with his skills and that is why he is out of the team now. But I also think he has suffered from us playing in difficult conditions in Darwin, Hobart and Canberra. I also am not of the view that we cannot play all three of Oscar, TMac and Frost in the backline. Defensively I think they are athletic enough to play on smaller opponents, particularly in a zone set up. I think we lose a bit of skill down back, but we could shift Hunt up to a wing to compensate. I also think Oscar's kicking and decision making is underrated by being Tom's brother. I see his issues being more intensity and strength related. This is not to say we should not go for Lever, because he is obviously a young gun. But he is definitely not a need IMO and I am unsure if giving up Frost and high picks is a huge win.

That's the John Ralph quote.