Fat Tony

1. We may not have pick 1. 2. Ruckmen/hit outs are highly overrated. 3. A good ruckman can be acquired in other ways or later in the draft. (Think of Mumford, Grundy, Cox, Sandilands, Jacobs, Maric, McIntosh, Hale, McEvoy, Pyke etc) 4. The press has reduced the impact of KPFs in the AFL, as they must push up the ground to defend and so they don't lead up at the ball as they do in underage footy. 5. Hogan will come good eventually.

I agree that we need to target a ruckman, but we would be better off trading for one.

While believing in always drafting best available, I would be trying to boost our midfield again at the end of the year. The game has changed and top midfielders are of much more value than good KPP these days. Look at who are the top players today (Ablett, Selwood, Watson, Dangerfield, Pendlebury and Mitchell) and compare that to yesteryear when it would have been Dunstall, Brereton, Carey, Kernahan and Lockett. Given our pick is likely to be very early again and much of the top end talent is KPPs, I would be in favour of trading down our pick(s) again. I also think underage KPPs often look better draft prospects than they actually are because underage games are more open and there are more one-on-one marking contests.

With 18 players on the field, one player can only have so much influence. (Gary Ablett Jnr only racks up around 10% of GCS total SuperCoach points, which is an indicator of his value.) And given how difficult it is to postulate how 18 year old boys will develop, this means the draft is an extremely ineffective tool in evening up the competition. The AFL should restrict the first round of the draft to only teams that miss the eight and then go in reverse ladder order for round 2. I would also be in favour of a weighted lottery for the first round. This change is particularly necessary in a world of Free Agency.

Are we allowed to do this?

This was a pretty weak draft overall and we should have gone hard at O'Meara in hindsight. GC got him for a steal.

I am not tearing my hair out with Toumpas, but surely we are allowed to evaluate the success of our drafting, even early on.

It isn't about impact this year so much, it just that Wines has now proven he can cut it at AFL level. I think Toumpas will be okay eventually, but Wines is already a good player. To say that means nothing is not considering all the evidence.

If the draft were re-held today, Wines and Mayes would be taken before Toumpas, Ploughman and O’Rourke, and possibly even Whitfield. But recruiters don’t have the benefit of seeing players under AFL pressure before they are drafted and things can change significantly as players mature from 18 years old. Given Wines and Mayes are not at Judd, Selwood or O’Meara’s level, it is too early to conclude that Toumpas was a mistake, although it looks probable at this stage. This is particularly so given Toumpas is coming off an injury interrupted preseason.

I believe he can elect to go in either the PSD or the ND.

Caddy is very overrated by the AFL community. He is not overly quick and not great by foot. He is not worth pick 13 in my book. In saying that, a potential path we could take is to offer him a high dollar i.e. $750K one-year contract to come to us via the PSD (so high that it puts GWS and GCS off taking him) and agree to trade him to Essendon the year after for their first round pick. We need to spend the salary and we would gain a first round pick the year after. Caddy would pick up extra money and eventually get to Essendon and GCS would lose out on any compensation. The other option would be to offer to trade down pick 13 to broker the deal a la Geelong and Mark Williams from Hawthorn to Essendon. (i.e. gain two picks in the early 20s).