Fat Tony

I like all these rule changes. The last touch rule has been almost in effect anyway. The main challenge will be the ruck nomination and blocking the ruck.

Gold Coast has beaches and warm weather. Hardly the same as being sent to Tassie.

Sure but they will struggle to get through the banners.

Even with the proposed stadium, the Devils are doomed for failure. 18-year old kids flee Tassie for the mainland in droves every year. Imagine being a gune AFL player and it is cold and you get 20k to each game and there are no nightclubs. Then Collingwood comes knocking and says you can come home to Melbourne, play in front of 80k and earn almost as much and go to nightclubs. It is a dumb idea for romantics.

Your analysis is great. But Toumpas was not a 'great' kick. He would have been able to play a half back role at AFL level if he was - even though he was only average pace and soft. Looking at Lindsay's highlights, you see a player who reads the play well and finds loose ball but no contested ability. I think he looks a decent kick but his kicking does not have the speed of the elite kickers at AFL level. Grjl looks to have more of this. I would advocate trading out of this year's draft into the future if we could pick up a decent interest rate. There will be good players to come out of the draft but there are not many slam dunks.

I don't really see Petty working as a defender. He can still play as a forward if he takes big marks and kicks straight, which he did in the last month. All of May, Lever and Petty are getting caught out for speed in the modern game.

This looks a decent side on paper. But the forward line is top heavy and the backline depends on May getting speed back. It will be interesting how the extra man on the bench changes things. I don't see it being used as a ruckman because it is actually the best part of JVR's game. I think the biggest issues with our best 22 is the lack of another small forward and elite midfielders. Hopefully Windsor, Langford, Lindsay and Tholstrup can become high quality AFL mids. I hope Rivers plays back rather than midfield because he is an average midfielder and one of the best half backs in the game.

And Melksham!

I am not convinced either of May or Petty are fast enough to play as AFL defenders anymore. That said, May might have been injured at the back end of the year. We could play Turner, Lever, Howes and Rivers. Petty played well as a forward in the last month of the year. He was marking well and kicking straight.

I think Petty is a forward and is too slow in defence. The game has changed since 2021 and he will get found out for pace in defence.

I like Steele as a player. He’s super tough and can sneak forward and kick a goal. That said, he isn’t that well suited to the way the game is headed and I would have gone younger and looked for someone in the draft. I don’t think we can roll with two of Steele, Langford and Cullen in the same centre midfield.

Perhaps. But we would have been able to match the offer and force a trade. Collectively, the Oliver and Petracca trades have cost us $3.5 million in cap space for an extra pick. It is false economy. These long deals are bad for us.

I calculated the points (not sure if i was using the current system or the old one) as Petracca being worth around pick 2. I don't think it would have been THAT much different as long as we weren't dealing with the Eagles.

The benefit is having them contracted for next year. There is only liability thereafter.

Ideally we get two players like Butters or Kossie who start as a small forwards but build endurance and strength to move into the midfield.

I think Petracca was already signed to the end of 2022 and Oliver to the end of 2023. And if Petracca or Oliver had have left we might have kept Jackson. (You need to put that into the simulation.) My point is that we had all the stars aligning for long-term deals to work and it still backfired massively. We should learn from this, because we won't be in a position where we have three of the best players in the competition in the same side for a long time. I also think you can win a flag without absolute top line stars. The Lions this year had McLuggage ranked #12 in the competition on AFL player ratings, Neale #27 and Ashcroft #40. They are excellent players but none of them would be considered superstars IMO. (Melbourne had the same number in the top 40 and the Dogs had 5!)

The comments around character were not about them demanding long-term contracts. More that they thought they could have the long-term security and then cut and run when we are no longer a contender. I understand our reasoning for giving Petracca and Oliver the contracts - we thought we could win flags in 2022-2024 because we had 3 of the very best players in the competition. But even in those special cirmcumstances, it has proven to be an error in hindsight. Now our circumstances have changed and we should not be giving any long-term contracts given our current situation. Let players go for draft picks and find cheaper replacements who have been squeezed out by their clubs - even if they are a bit older. If we draft well, we will come out ahead. The way for us to win is to draft well and organically grow our players to be elite. We are not going to be able to win by paying for free agents.

I think the deal would have been similar. Cameron got 3 first round picks and we would have got similar. The return for Petracca was around 2 first round picks (in weak drafts) when you factor in the later picks. It looks better on paper than it really was.

We are better off losing them and getting draft picks than hamstringing our list with long-term contracts. I am happy to pay people what they are worth, but the length of the deal needs to be reasonable because otherwise we risk becoming a basketcase when things go wrong. We are too small a club to easily get out of the hole.

We would have got similar value for Petracca had he been uncontracted. Petracca and Oliver were special cases because of selfishness and immaturity.

I am aware of our disadvantages and we can only win an unfair game if we draft well. But we are not going to win by offering long-term contracts which turn our best players into liabilities. We need to be more willing than other clubs to turn the list over but making sure we hit on our picks.

AFL clubs have enough leverage to get a good trade with one extra year on the contract. (Even players out of contract usually get nearly full value.) But seven years becomes a liability. Petracca's contract was also a massive risk. If he had not played again after getting injured last year we would still have suffered a massive cap hit. Same with Brayshaw. The long-term contracts are a disaster. Even a player like Kossie, who is a star, is now a libaility from a list perspective. We need to let players go and gain players from other clubs mistakes. If we do this and recruit well, we will be a top club consistently.

The club needs to take some key lessons from this. Long-term contracts are a millstone around the club's neck. With player movement so easy and player power being so strong, we need to be smarter about managing our list. Flexibility is key and this means being willing to let our stars go. If you have cap space, you can pick up players like Oliver, Steele, Ainsworth for next to nothing.

Steele is still a good player but we don't seem to have a coherent strategy around our list build at the moment. Not sure 30 and 32 year olds on good money are what we should be chasing.

Can’t say I’m surprised by the proposed deal here. Right from the start I was advocating that it was better to keep Oliver and make the most of a bad situation.