Fat Tony

But this was the point I was making. Bif has used statistics to compare him to a small sample of players, which is selective. I was just pointing out that there are players who have started their careers better than Hogan but have not then kicked on. I think Hogan could be great, but he will have to improve on his clear weaknesses. His strengths are already very good and there are limits to how much they can improve. (i.e. his endurance, strength, reading the play, marking). In particular, he needs to improve his chasing (which is poor) and his goal kicking (which looks terrible).

Your analysis is selective in that it doesn’t also compare Hogan to players who started their career well and plateaued or fizzled out. For instance, Jack Anthony kicked 50 goals in 2009 as a 21-year-old and is no longer in the AFL. Jack Darling kicked 53 and 42 goals in his first two years and has not progressed any further. Jeremy Cameron kicked 62 goals in 2013 and doesn’t look a better player today. Travis Cloke won Collingwood’s best and fairest at 20. Tim Membery kicked 44 goals this year at 22. The point of this post is not that Hogan is an Anthony but that players develop at different rates. Whilst we all hope that Hogan can reach the heights of Carey and Brown, and he is off to a great start, it is not the fait accompli that most on Demonland seem to think it is.

But have we offered contracts to any of the other players out of contract at the end of 2017? Certainly none which equate to 10% of the salary cap.

I think america de cali makes some valid points around the importance of spreading the load when it comes to goal kicking. Most premiership sides are built with multiple forward options. And a forward line including Hogan becomes quite one dimensional because he is a very good mark but offers little on the deck. Moreover, there is yet to be a premiership side where one player takes up more than 10% of the salary cap. (Sydney got closest, but they had the advantage of COLA.) I would be willing to pay Hogan that much if I was confident he could have the influence on games of Fyfe, Ablett, Dangerfield or Franklin, but while I think Hogan will improve, I just don't think he will get to that bracket. The other thing to add is that AFL defences have moved from man on man to zone defence. This, along with the congestion in the midfield, has decreased the value of good key forwards overall, and increased the value of small/mid sized forwards who are good overhead and inside midfielders.

Criminally underrated on Demonland? Really? A high proportion of posters think he will be one of the best handful of players in the competition.

Hogan is significantly overrated on Demonland IMO. He is a good young player at the moment and his stats compare very favourably to other key forwards of his age. But he is nearly 100kg now and came into the league with enough strength to compete from the start of his career. Will he get better? Sure, but he is not too far off his prime IMO. He would need to become a bona fide star of the competition like Buddy to be worth paying 10% of the salary cap for. This is less likely than likely in my view and not the fait accompli that most on here believe. While Hogan's strengths are very good, I think he has a number of weaknesses. Obviously his goal kicking is not great (although I think this can be improved). His lack of defensive effort to chase and tackle is my biggest concern and appears part of his mindset. He offers little when the ball hits the deck. He also doesn't have a great leap. I also think that Games are won in the midfield and the big forwards are much less important than they once were. If he doesn't want to sign a reasonable contract prior to the trade period, I would be looking at offers to trade him this year.

Hibberd will be a good get. Of the veterans, in order, I would prefer: 1. Harvey 2. Barlow (if we get him cheaply enough in terms of draft pick) – He doesn’t fit our need for speed, but he is only 28. 3. Dal Santo 4. Thompson While I think outside run is our greatest need, I wouldn’t go for Wells as he is too injury prone. MacKenzie is a caravan defender who hasn’t been able play in the Eagles new defensive system. I don’t think he suits our needs given we are playing a zone defence also.

I am a fan of Watts playing the role. He is reasonable in the centre bounces and we can use a third man up around the ground where he gets out bodied. Watts also has good second efforts once the ball hits the deck and he is also far too mobile for his opponent around the ground. This is not to say we should not nab a Jenkins, Lobb or Wright if they come cheaply and we should still look to continue to develop such a player. (Hopefully King.) As you say, we cannot go with Hogan, Weideman, and Watts plus another tall.

I think it's an easy question to answer. N Jones, Viney, Oliver and Tyson all play 70-80% game time as centre square mids and are not really suited to playing elsewhere. And they are all obviously bonafide AFL footballers. Unless we trade one of them out for a better option, I don't see how another inside mid is required. Added to that we have Brayshaw, Petracca and Vandenberg who have all shown potential to become AFL standard inside mids. Plus Vince, who is still in our best eight players and still seems to play his best footy in the midfield. On the outside we have Stretch, Bugg and M Jones. That's not to say I would say no to Fyfe or Dangerfield.

I think our inside players are all around average except for Tyson (who is slow) and Viney (who is just above average). At Hawthorn, Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis are all slower than Tyson. For the Swans, none of Kennedy, Parker and Mitchell are speedsters. IMO we need to add some outside pace and class to compliment our engine room.

I know that clubs get it wrong from time to time, but surely Freo wouldn't be letting him go now if his WAFL games showed more than an inkling that he could get back to AFL level.

Big yes from me. Lyons is 24 years old, has decent pace and seems to play taller than 184cm. He has had his best year in 2016, averaging almost 22 possessions and 4.6 tackles per game over 18 games and also kicked 14 goals. His average Supercoach points per game this year of 90 would rank him sixth on our list and almost equivalent to Dom Tyson. Worth more than a second rounder, which is what we would get him for.

At his best, Hartlett is a classy mid with decent speed and good penetration. But I worry he is on a big salary for a player who is prone to soft tissue injuries (and Port will want to shift all of the cost). I would want to know why his 2016 was so ordinary. And as much as I am comfortable for us to trade our first rounder for the right deal, it comes at a big risk if the season goes pear shaped and we have a lot of injuries.

I don't think Freo have offered him a contract, so he could potentially be a Delisted Free Agent. Good player and certainly deserves a new contract. His form after coming back into the AFL was pretty good.

Is Clarke a good enough forward? I would say he's not. With Gawn playing 80% of the game as a ruckman, the second ruck role requires 60% of game time as a forward. Personally I think we would be better off going with a key forward first and ruckman second rather than a player who is not quite good enough to play as a genuine forward. Ideally we would recruit someone like a Jenkins, Wright or Lobb, but they are extremely hard to find.

Watching him play, I don’t see Oliver’s pace as being exceptional. Oliver hits the clearances on the move and has great hands. He will be a fine inside player, but he won’t be a line breaker. Trengove had similar sprint results and he never looked quick at AFL level even before his injury. FWIW I wouldn't say Wines is quick either.

I love the look of Oliver but he needs to kick more rather than handball backwards all the time. I also think his pace is only around average for his role and I think he needs to build his tank. IMO he will develop into a similar player to Cripps. The point I am making is that Tyson and Oliver will be a better player with fast, skilled players around them and Thompson is not fast. (Hence my lukewarm yes.)

I understand the point you are both trying to make, but I don't see Thompson as a straight swap for Bugg or M. Jones. The truth is we need to find better skilled outside midfielders to compliment the likes of N.Jones, Viney, Oliver, Tyson, Brayshaw etc. Our midfield lacks line breaking ability and FWIW I would have M. Jones in our best 22 as it stands because he plays a complimentary role to our other mids. (This is a problem I agree, but we don't have an Issac Smith on our list.)

I love the idea of veterans because they cost nothing in terms of draft picks and tend to deliver more than developing players. Thompson is certainly a player worth considering and he is still playing good footy. In terms of average Supercoach points, Thompson 2016 season (88) ranks behind just six Demons. But he would make our midfield slower and I can see problems in playing Tyson, Thompson and Oliver in the same side. It is a lukewarm yes from me, although I would prefer Harvey despite his age, because he adds pace and skill on the outside, which I feel is our greatest need.

Maybe R1 2017 plus Wagner

Boomer because has pace and skill, which we lack.

I see nothing! 1000px-SgtShultz.webp

The risk I see with O'Meara is not the first round pick and steak knives he would cost, but the contract. He is just asking for too much money and long a contract for a player who hasn't played for two years.

They did, but I think GWS can loophole the loophole by trading this years picks for future picks.

Why not come to Melbourne and do a Brian Lake?