Fat Tony

Wagner looks a similar type to Mitchell White.

Cripps played 10 VFL games in 2014 and probably would have played more AFL games if he didn't get injured early on. But 20 AFL games is rare for a first year player, with only Brayshaw and Touk Miller reaching the mark from last year's draft. Hopefully Oliver is good enough to play from day one, and I wanted us to select him or Francis, but I wouldn't bet on 20 AFL games.

Obviously you would take Diesel, but it is about team balance. The question we face is if we have the balance right. Personally, I think we still desperately lack some pace and class and that we need a number of Stretch, Watts, Kennedy, Kennedy-Harris and Hunt to come on.

Hawthorn have a balance and are much faster than you think. They have Smith, Hill and Burgoyne who are good on the outside, as well as a forward line with three nippy small forwards and two very mobile talls. These players compliment the lack of pace of Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge.

I agree dazzle. My MFC seconds side has a lot of players who have played decent AFL football. We need a bit of luck with injury for once.

I think we would be bottom quartile for speed in the AFL.

Good post. Hopefully players like Stretch, Watts, Kennedy, Kennedy-Harris and Hunt can develop to give us some outside run.

Cripps played 10 VFL games in 2014.

I feel it is a shame we didn't swap our picks in the 40s for a higher pick with Sydney, Brisbane or GWS and went for Bonner, Balic or Mathieson (or even for 2016 pick(s)). It seems likely that King and Hulett would have been available in the rookie draft.

I wouldn't be very confident in Oliver being a regular in 2016 given he has a lot of competition for a spot as an inside mid. He is going against N Jones, Vince, Viney, Tyson, Vandenberg, Brayshaw and Petracca, with others like Michie, Neal-Bullen and Trengove also possibilities. Patrick Cripps only played 3 games in his first season. And Petracca should play a good chunk of the season, but he is coming of an ACL, so it is very unlikely he will play 20 given it is his first year.

B: Jetta, Dunn, Garland HB: Lumumba, Frost, Salem C: Watts, Vandenberg, Melksham HF: Kent, T McDonald, Viney F: Garlett, Hogan, Petracca Fol: Gawn, Vince, N Jones Int: Brayshaw, Tyson, Pedersen, Kennedy B: Bugg, O McDonald, White HB: Grimes, Hulett, Terlich C: M Jones, Oliver, Stretch HF: Harmes, Dawes, Kennedy Harris F: Max King, Weideman, Newton Fol: Spencer, Michie*, Neal-Bullen Int: Mitchell King, Rookie 6, Hunt, Trengove I

Have we got any picks other than for Michie?

There is definitely room to take outside players but it is probably safer to do it later in the draft.

You cannot know that for sure. Parish wins his own ball at U18 level where there is space at stoppages. The stoppages at AFL level have as many as 30 bodies nearby. None of these kids are proven under AFL level pressure.

Parish’s highlights are magnificent and he suits our need for outside run. However, I query if his game is that well suited to the congested nature of AFL football, where there are 80 stoppages per game and formation team defence. Parish may well develop sufficient strength and size to play a role like Heppell, Murphy or even Ablett Jnr, but his lack of size is a clear risk and there is a chance he doesn’t play 100 games. Oliver has a lot of traits of modern footballer – hard, strong, big body, agile, good hands and decent skills. He will also benefit significantly from being in a full time AFL environment. Our midfield has added a lot of similar types recently in Brayshaw, Vandenberg and hopefully Petracca, but still I feel Oliver is a relatively low risk option and we should look to minimise our drafting mistakes. Francis is probably my favourite option (besides Schache and Weitering) but he probably plays a role we have a surplus of (key defender/third tall) and he has flight risk given he is from SA. His marking and kicking is superb and he looks an AFL footballer already. Weideman looks a massive gamble given his injury history. I am also not as strong on the need for a key forward as the majority on Demonland. I think small forwards can be just as valuable and Betts, Wingard, Breust and Tory Dickson all finished top 10 in the Coleman last year with 50 goals plus. Milera looks a real talent and is probably more outside than Parish. But he looks quick and suited to an outside midfielders role at AFL level. He would play straight away given our lack of outside run and the fact that he has played senior footy in the SANFL. I would prefer him to Curnow or Weideman. Curnow looks a little like Jarryd Roughead and Jack Darling, but also a little like Matthew Bate. He looks an undersized key forward and talk of him being a midfielder is based on his endurance and body size rather than performance. I hope we go for Oliver or Francis at 3 and then go for whoever remains out of Oliver/Francis, Parish or Milera at 7. If they are all gone, we take a key forward.

What is your view of Oliver's skill level dazzle? He achieved a perfect score for goal kicking, so he must be ok under no pressure.

I'd qualify my post by saying that I would take the key forward if I felt they were a class above the best mid. While I agree with your point on evolution to some degree, it is very hard to plan for. And I don't think the current AFL administration has it in them to make radical changes. On Tommy McDonald, he is a very good mark and runs like Nick Riewoldt or Matty Richardson. I feel we aren't using his athleticism to its full extent in defence. And on recruiting key forwards, clubs like North Melbourne (Jarod Waite), Geelong (Mitch Clark) and Sydney (Tippett and Franklin) have been able to get key forwards for little in terms of draft picks (or salary in Waite and Clark's case).

I hope we get two of Parish, Oliver or Francis. They may not have the upside of Weideman or Curnow, but they all look reasonably safe selections and the draft is too much of a gamble. My rationale: • Rating how key position players will transition from junior football to the AFL is particularly difficult. • Inside midfielders are now much more important than key forwards in AFL footy given the congestion. • Midfielders have a more immediate impact, which is now more important given the introduction of free agency. • We can build a forward line around Hogan and recruit a key forward (if we need it) down the track when we are in contention. • I would play Tom McDonald forward next year to exploit his running capacity.

I really like the look of Oliver. As much as we are well stocked for inside mids, he looks to be the type of footballer who could adjust to AFL footy very easily.

We should now try and now trade #46, #50 and our 2016 third rounder for the Swans' #33, #54 and their 2016 third rounder and promise not to bid on Mills.

The cost is huge if you finish near the bottom and progressively gets lower. I wouldn't be in favour of it this year because we are 15th in line for the flag according to the bookies.

I'd like us to propose a trade of #6, #29, #46, #50, #64 & 2016 third rounder for Bugg, #7, #8.

I assume we will try and trade up the board with GWS, Sydney or Brisbane who will probably auction picks #7, #8, #14 and #17 for Academy points.

We could do #6 plus next year's second round pick. I would prefer not but I am not a draft expert and I don't know how highly they value Parish (or others).

#50 for Bugg and then #29, #46 & #64 for #17 from Brisbane. We might even look to package next year's second round pick with #6 for #3.