Fat Tony

Hawthorn have thrashed Melbourne, Fremantle and Sydney this year and it got me thinking if Clarkson has cracked the Roos game plan. Personally I also feel we should be now looking at the Hawthorn model as a blue print rather than the Swans. The key lessons I think we can learn from Hawthorn are: 1. Be more willing to move forward by hand. Statistics will show Melbourne, Fremantle and Sydney as outliers in the competition in terms of meters lost/gained from handball. Roos’ edict is to get the ball back by hand from a stoppage until you find a free kicker then hit a target and chip by foot going forward. This is very predictable and Hawthorn are very good at pushing forwards up to the stoppage and their midfield is ‘blitzing’ the ball carrier. 2. Hawthorn play three small forwards in Rioli, Breust and Puopolo, all of which are good in the air and excellent chasers. By contrast, Garlett is our only proven small forward. 3. Hawthorn’s key forwards are Roughead, Gunstan and Hale (second ruck), with Roughead and Gunstan both being very quick and mobile when the ball hits the ground. This makes me doubt if a forward line including players like Hogan and Dawes can ever really work together. It also makes me think that we should persevere with the Tom McDonald experiment up forward for the rest of 2015. 4. Hawthorn’s premiership midfield included just six inside mids in Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Burgoyne, Shiels and Langford, with Smith and Hill on the outside. Given Melbourne’s excellent offseason recruiting, I feel our list is now well stocked for inside mids with N Jones, Vince, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw, Vandenberg and Petracca. (This doesn’t even account for the potential for Neal-Bullen and Trengove to have in impact.) While Watts is starting to show some consistency as a wingman, we really need to acquire/develop some fast, classy outside players. Hopefully Toumpas and Stretch can be these players, but I don’t feel we can rely on them making it. (Salem might also help in this area, but I don’t know if he is quick enough.) Our need to get some outside class and pace is exacerbated due to only having one bona fide AFL small forward in Garlett. (Although I also hope that Kent can develop into a quality player.) 5. The key to Hawthorn’s undersized backline is teamwork. Hawthorn rely heavily on Lake to play the Gorilla role, but are otherwise small, pacey and skilled. While Howe may be out the door, I think we should try and retain him and play him as a third tall defender like he did on the weekend (rather than a fourth as he usually does). In this role he is in a better position to go as the third man up and it should means we have a better kicking back line. For this reason, I feel we should not be afraid of losing Tom McDonald from the back six.

I didn't see too much A+ in Aish yesterday. Outside mids without electric pace are really struggling in modern footy. Gaff and Ellis would be two of only a handful of exceptions. (Maybe also Hannebery, but he also wins a lot of his own ball.)

There is a lot of talk about how Geelong will manage its list given the number of aging stars it has. Should we consider offering one of them a lifeline ala Daniel Cross and Paul Chapman? I think Steve Johnson looks finished and I cannot see Enright, Bartel or Lonergan (contracted) going anywhere. But James Kelly looks to be still going well and would fit in well to our midfield nicely. Matty Stokes has been up and down this year, but has still played half a dozen good games. Jared Rivers was in excellent form early in the year. And Andrew Mackie is still good enough to go again. Enright, Corey (33yr 10mth) Johnson, Steve (32yr) Bartel, Jimmy (31yr 7mth) Kelly, James (31yr 6mth) Lonergan, Tom (31yr 2mth) Mackie, Andrew (30yr 11mth) McIntosh, Hamish (30yr 10mth) Rivers, Jared (30yr 9mth) Stokes, Mathew (30yr 7mth)

Grimes in for Neal-Bullen and Hunt for JKH.

Prestia is a bit of a dilemma as I think our biggest needs are classy outside mids and a key forward/second ruck. I like Prestia as a footballer and think he could add some explosiveness to our midfield. But, on the flip side, our current midfield lacks height and outside run/skill. I am a bit worried that an inside midfield including N Jones, Prestia and Viney would not be able to cope with the oppositions' big bodied mids. For this reason Prestia isn't the ideal target IMO. But I would still rather trade our pick than chance the draft lottery and Prestia is well worth our first rounder as it stands.

Posters wanting Howe to be traded don't understand the present AFL landscape. He is out of contract and will nominate a club and get there. We will then get unders in terms of any trade or he will manipulate the draft to get to his destination. Howe leaving is unlikely to be a win for us.

I also think Watts does this really well, but it can't be just one player given there are nearly 75 stoppages per game.

Hopefully 6.

A side benefit of trialling McDonald forward is that it gives us the chance to see if Fitzy can make it as an AFL defender. Personally, I don't think that McDonald and Fitzy can both play in the same back line as it means we lack sufficient skill down there. We should also trial McDonald as the second ruck and use him as third man up at stoppages like Blicavs for the Cats.

There is way too much doom and gloom on here today. We lost due to our poor goal kicking and good goal kicking by Essendon. The wet conditions also played a part in keeping Essendon in the game. We are getting better and our midfield is starting to take shape. Gawn has come on significantly in the last month and the ruck has gone from a big weakness to a possible long-term strength. Brayshaw and Vandenberg look like they will be at least 150 gamers. Watts has had his best month of footy and is finally showing some intensity. I also think we have been badly impacted by injuries this year, particularly in players who looked like they might show a great deal of improvement, with Petracca, Frost, Salem, Viney and Kent missing a lot of games.

B Garland, Fitzpatrick, Jetta HB Lumumba, Dunn, Grimes C Cross, Vince, Watts HF Brayshaw, Hogan, Howe F Vandenberg, T McDonald, Garlett Fol Gawn, Viney, N Jones Int Tyson, Kennedy-Harris, M Jones, Stretch (sub) In: Fitzpatrick, Grimes, M Jones Out: Dawes, Neal-Bullen, Harmes • I think our forward line is too slow when the ball hits the deck with both Dawes and Hogan. • Fitzpatrick needs to be given a bigger run at playing as a key defender and it is worth trialling McDonald forward again. Fitzpatrick should also be well suited to play on Martin or Leuenberger. • Grimes provides a bit more run out of defence than Cross, who should tag Beams. • I think we missed the run and carry of M Jones. I think he provides more to the side at the moment than Neal-Bullen and Harmes.

IMO it is definitely worth experimenting again. McDonald had four shots on goal in a quarter and we are not in finals contention. Matthew Richardson kicked 800 career goals and had similar traits to McDonald. We should be more willing to try things in the back end of the season.

I disagree Howe should be dropped on today's form. He was far from our worst. But regardless, I find it poor for supporters to hope that one of our players gets suspended. (Particularly when the incident was a fair tackle.)

Poor form.

Terrible decision to play Spencer in Darwin.

Hogan is flying from Perth to Darwin to join the team. He isn't going all the way up there just to see crocodiles.

O'Meara would be up there with Hogan and Bontempelli as one of the best kids in the competition. He would cost our first two picks.

Planning who to sub off is a recipe for disaster. Dawes or Spencer need to make way for Hogan.

I am not sure you need 10-12 genuine midfielders. The Hawthorn premiership side had Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge, Langford, Shiels and Burgoyne as genuine inside midfielders (6) and Hill and Smith on the outside (2). It also had speedy small forwards like Rioli, Puopolo and Breust as well as Gunston and Roughead who all took turns in the midfield, but I wouldn’t call any of them true midfielders (and none of them were recruited as such). I am much more bullish on Vandenberg than you and feel Watts is starting to show really good signs. Also, it would be a complete disaster if Petracca does not come on. And Cross is averaging 91 SC points (5th for Melbourne) which is similar to last year, so I would be disappointed if he didn't play next year.

I think our midfield is looking much healthier now. Viney, N Jones, Vince, Tyson, Vandenberg and Brayshaw all look to be at least good AFL players, along with hopefully Petracca, Neal-Bullen, Salem, Toumpas, Watts and Stretch. Add in Cross, who is defying father time. And maybe even Trengove. I am not saying another quality midfielder is not wanted, but it is a vast improvement already and I think we should take best available.

I think Vince will play on Priddis and Viney on Shuey. I would look to start centre bounces with Nathan Jones loose in defence if NicNat starts to dominate the clearances.

Dawes or Spencer must make way for Hogan. Particularly in Darwin.

Maybe I am putting too much stock in Jack's four-goal game against Melbourne in 2013. But he looked a great prospect on that day.

After watching the last Vic Country game and thinking about it, I would consider trading up the draft to pick up Josh Schache. Trade our first and second round picks and Dawes to Gold Coast for pick 1 or 2. This move goes against the philosophy of generally only drafting inside mids, but this kid looks a total package. His kicking for goal is as fluent as any AFL player and he has good endurance and looks to take a reasonable mark. He and Hogan could set up our forward line for a decade and, at 199cm, Schache could also fill the role as a second ruckman. I also think we are looking pretty good for inside mids at the moment given the arrival of Tyson, Vandenberg, Brayshaw and Petracca, along with Viney, Jones and Vince. (Obviously I would love to pick up Patty Dangerfield but that is only a dream.) I also think we can probably pick up some outside runners relatively cheaply either down the draft or through trades. (i.e. Sam Dwyer, Brandon Jack, Courtney Dempsey) Edit: Spelling

Hopefully Stefan Martin appeals and gets three.