Fat Tony

Scoop McClure said Billings was set to announce a new deal with St Kilda very soon on SEN this morning.

Adelaide play Essendon and we want the Crows to win.

We don't have much option this year but to back in Oscar McDonald and Frost. Tom McDonald is needed up forward, particularly with Hogan out injured. I am optimistic that both Weideman and Oscar McDonald will be better again next year, but I am not against bringing in high quality key position players. In saying this, I am not in favour of recruiting in depth key position players like Jackson Trengove or Sam Reid.

The opening post is on point in that we have obviously had an issue stopping the key forwards this year. But the real question is if we need to recruit in outside players at the end of the year or stay the course. The coaches have clearly put their faith in Oscar McDonald and believe he will develop into a 200 game defender. I think he has shown enough that he will make it as a player, but while I think he will be better again in 2018, he needs to put on size and I am not sure we won’t be having similar conversations again next season. Also, we need to factor in Weideman into our thinking. If Weideman can develop into a good AFL forward, Tom McDonald will be able to switch back to defence because a forward line of Hogan, Weideman, Watts and Tom McDonald would be too tall. Would we be having this discussion if Tom McDonald played in defence all season? I doubt it. In saying all this, I would still target Lever because he is such a good prospect and because clubs generally can get out of contract players for unders. However, I think both Oscar McDonald and Weideman will develop into AFL players and they probably need to play at the AFL level to get there, so I am not in the camp that says we are desperate to recruit a key defender.

I would love to bring in Lever at the right price, he looks like being a star of the game for a decade, but I hate ProDee's solution of trading Frost. I think his athleticism is exceptional and he can provide both great run from defence and great pressure. At 23 and only 50 odd AFL games, he is already a very good AFL player and could develop even further. I think a backline including a developed Oscar McDonald, Frost and Lever would be very strong. (With Tom McDonald as a forward/swingman.) However, personally I think our greatest need is outside class and pace in the midfield.

Trengove is only average though and is no better than Tom McDonald or Frost. While I think the need for a key defender is overstated by our injuries, Lever is quality and the one we want.

Trengove is a similar but inferior player to Tom McDonald IMO.

He will definitely cost a first round pick. PS Supercoach points are not perfect but they are probably the best single data point indicator of output IMO.

Obviously it would be great to add a player with both pace and skill, but personally I think we need leg speed in the midfield more to compliment Lewis, Tyson, Jones, Viney, Oliver, Salem etc. The other point I would make on Zak Jones is that he is behind only Oliver, Nathan Jones, Hibberd, Pederson, Viney, Lewis and Harmes in terms of average ranking points per game at Melbourne and behind only Oliver, Nathan Jones and Viney in total ranking points. He would be a great get IMO given the cost and his age.

Our defence has been very unsettled this year due to the injuries and suspensions of Gawn and Hogan. I doubt we would think this is our major problem if we had have played with Tom McDonald and Frost as our key defenders every week and with Gawn coming back to help out. While Frost and Tom McDonald are not good kicks, IMO both are decent defensively in the air and they are both extremely athletic which makes them hard to beat on the ground. Clearly Oscar isn't up to AFL yet, but he has some good attributes - height, elite endurance and decent natural skill level. He plays golf off a handicap of 3 and is a better kick than his brother. He times his spoils fairly well also. He mostly lacks strength and intensity and his decision making is poor, all of which is common for young key position players. This is not saying we shouldn't go after May, but he is a player in hot demand and will cost a lot in salary and picks. Personally, I feel we could add to our team in other areas at less cost. The other point I would make is that two key defenders is enough with Gawn in the side IMO.

Stretch does not have the explosive pace or toughness that Zak Jones has. While Stretch has better decision making and kicking than Jones, I feel he is actually slow for an outside midfielder (and about average pace versus the entire AFL pool.) I hope Stretch becomes a better player than Jones and think he will have a decent AFL career. But Jones, at 22, is already ranked 67th in the total competition for Supercoach ranking points and 101st for average Supercoach ranking points. He is also 8th in the competition for average running bounces, equal with Jayden Hunt.

May is from Darwin. I know he went to Melbourne Grammar, but I don't think the pull to Victoria is not a key factor.

I am not against going for Lever or May but overall I feel our list is actually reasonably well balanced and that a key defender is not as big a requirement as other Demonlanders. (If anything, I think we really lack some class and pace on the outside of the midfield, with Bugg and Stretch not providing sufficient line breaking ability we need.) So, for me it all comes down to price in terms of picks and contract. While Oscar McDonald is struggling against strong key forwards, he is still developing and he will get stronger and increase his intensity in the contest with age and experience. I predict he will develop into a pretty good player over the next two years, but I admit there is a wide range of possible outcomes and it might not be by 2018. IMO our difficulties in defence this season have been due in part to Gawn getting injured (and Spencer) and not having a tall ruckman coming back into the back 50 to contest in the air. At the same time, we have also had our key position (and tall flanker) depth tested severely, with Garland, Joel Smith, Hogan, Frost, Hibberd, Lumumba, Hogan, Tim Smith and Vandenberg all missing games or retired. Pedersen also had a limited preseason. With all the injuries, Tom McDonald, who has been the linchpin of our defence over recent years, has been used in the ruck and up forward. Thus, with Gawn and Spencer out, and Tom McDonald shifted, we haven’t really had a true sample of games to assess our defence. The other point I would make is that the Bulldogs won the flag last year with Hamling, Roberts and Morris as their key defenders. While they had a great finals series, Hamling and Roberts were no name players until after they won the premiership and Morris was a 190cm injury riddled, 33 year old. With a good game plan and a strong midfield, key defenders are not that important to being a successful side.

Sure Kelly would compliment our midfield beautifully. But The chance of him playing for Melbourne is negligible. He will most likely take the North offer, which is well overs on what he has already produced, and where his father played. Or he will stay with GWS.

Zak is very similar to his brother. He's a tough, hard running midfielder with solid skills and he is having a great season. I understand we have a lot of inside midfielders, but he is definitely worth trading for.

Zak is tracking a similar trajectory to his brother and has improved a lot in the last 12 months. While there is definitely not a need for us to take on another inside mid, he has reasonable pace. Definitely a yes from me at the right price, which it would be.

I like Lever as a player. He could become one of the best defenders in the competition. He is tough, quick and reads the play well. Of course we should be looking to recruit him. In saying this, I don't see us having any major holes from a list perspective in the future. If anything, I think we are most lacking a quick outside midfielder with class. As frustrating as Oscar is at times, I think he will eventually develop into a better than average AFL player once he gets strong enough. He reads the play very well (which is why he gets so much of the ball) and is generally a good kick. The real issue with Oscar is his lack of intensity and strength in the contest, both of which will improve as he matures. I also think Frost and Smith have a lot of natural talent and can become solid defenders with the ability to counter attack at speed. Likewise Weideman looks a good long-term prospect, which is the other position we look to be lacking in so far in 2017. I would definitely be looking to top up our list with mature talent at the end of the year and I feel we are probably an attractive destination given our expected trajectory. Personally, I think we would be much better of if we could add a bonafide star like Martin or Fyfe, but I would still be making inquiries to Lever's management.

Correction - flags

How delightful would it be if we keep Hogan and get Fyfe.

This stat is incredible and yet not surprising. According to Champion Data, Melbourne has won 18 more takeaways than the opposition per 100 centre bounces when Oliver is there. That number drops by 12 on average whenever he wanders outside the centre bounce setup.

No chance if he keeps snapping goals from 45m and dishing off like he did to Salem in the last quarter.

We gave up a second round pick and a big chunk of salary cap space for a 24-year old player who has shown to be nothing more than a C Grader and is now rubbed out for a year. I think it looks to be a terrible trade, but acknowledge there is a slight chance it could come good in the end.

Jordan Murdoch was thrown up on Footy Classified as a player than may be part of the Dangerfield deal. I would look at trying to land him for a draft pick or Toumpas, which would go to Adelaide if he wants to stay in Victoria.

While NM's list looks like it is downward heading, the Kangas may be able to convince the football world that they are still a top side and land free agents. Geelong are in a similar position at the moment, but Dangerfield could see them competing for a flag again.

Thanks for the info Chook. But I still think this sounds like a dud deal. Melksham doesn't add size to our inside midfield and lacks polish on the outside, which is what we lack most.